{ "meta": { "date": "2026-10-28", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "status": "October28 reports and sportsbook prices refreshed", "total": 187, "estimated": 185, "defaultSkaters": 143, "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "lineupsStatus": "Latest reported charts reviewed; final dressing and deployment unconfirmed.", "shotChartStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "zoneFitNote": "Informational only: 60% player own current zone shares / 40% prior; raw opponent SOG/60 compared with each season league average blended 60/40 then shrunk once with ten current league-average games. Players without prior NHL games or recorded prior attempts use current-season shooting shares only; opponent defense retains its 60/40 blend. Other missing samples stay unavailable. Projections unchanged.", "teamStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "goalieStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "goaliesCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "statisticsRefreshedAt": "2026-10-28T20:24:30.579429+00:00", "reportReviewCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "builtAt": "2026-10-28T20:24:30.579429+00:00", "confirmedGoalies": 5, "teamDataRequirements": { "WSH": "2026-10-24", "PHI": "2026-10-27", "EDM": "2026-10-26", "CGY": "2026-10-26", "COL": "2026-10-25", "NJD": "2026-10-27", "SEA": "2026-10-24", "TOR": "2026-10-26" }, "pendingStatisticalRefresh": {}, "statisticalCoverageNote": "Current-season game inputs through October27. New completed games checked against official NHL boxes.", "leagueUpdatePendingDate": null, "sogModelVersion": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "sogModelDescription": "60% existing 50/50 position/chart + attempts SOG blend, plus 40% saved 2025–26 player SOG/game. Applied once; players without prior history retain the base blend. Model Goal remains separate.", "sogBlendUpdatedAt": "2026-10-28T20:24:32.110625+00:00", "h2hRestored": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "h2hIdentityResolutions": [], "h2hSource": "MoneyPuck published game-by-game skater/goalie files and regular-season shot archives", "h2hWindow": "Team H2H: 2024–25 through 2026–27 (cutoff 2026-10-27); goalie-team H2H: saved 2024–2026 files; player-goalie H2H: shot events from 2025–26 through 2026–27. Informational only; no projection formulas changed.", "reportRefreshApplied": true, "performancePenaltyVersion": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "sogBaseModelVersion": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "performancePenaltySettings": { "recentGames": 5, "recentWeight": 0.3, "playerShrinkMinutes": { "5on5": 60, "5on4": 15 }, "defenseShrinkMinutes": { "5on5": 100, "4on5": 30 }, "zonePriorShots": 30, "individualPenaltyCap": 0.1, "combinedStrengthPenaltyCap": 0.15 }, "pendingDataTeams": [], "performancePenaltyDescription": "Downward recent player attempts/min, recent positional/PK defensive allowance and volume-normalized recent zone shape; 15% combined cap per situation. Applied once before Goal probability. Provisional user-adopted settings, not independently calibrated.", "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "enabled": true, "activeFrom": "2026-10-22", "factor": 0.98, "description": "User-selected 2% reduction to final away-player Model SOG. The locked Goal model derives expected goals from adjusted SOG, reducing goal intensity once by 2%; 1+ goal probability is recalculated. Independent of B2B status. No separate travel, fatigue or B2B penalty." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "enabled": true, "activeFrom": "2026-10-25", "factor": 0.93, "topN": 30, "adopted": "User requested seven-percent reduction for top-30 SOG picks going forward.", "presentation": "Do not display model formulas, weights, adjustment explanations or conclusions. Preserve operational status, data coverage, source attribution and observed history.", "goalTreatment": "Recalculate Goal from final Model SOG through the existing locked estimator; no second reduction. Rebuild BTB after Goal.", "selection": "Freeze top30 membership from the full eligible unadjusted slate after performance and away adjustments, before filtering. Re-rank displayed final values normally.", "validation": "User-selected setting; one-week retrospective results do not establish out-of-sample accuracy.", "selectedIds": [ "8481559", "8477492", "8477934", "8476454", "8478414", "8479318", "8478402", "8480803", "8479345", "8477939", "8478178", "8477949", "8476462", "8482259", "8482684", "8478458", "8480002", "8484186", "8482146", "8482159", "8475172", "8474586", "8477986", "8474150", "8482679", "8480069", "8471214", "8485406", "8483787", "8481533" ], "selectedPlayers": [ { "id": "8481559", "team": "NJD" }, { "id": "8477492", "team": "COL" }, { "id": "8477934", "team": "EDM" }, { "id": "8476454", "team": "EDM" }, { "id": "8478414", "team": "NJD" }, { "id": "8479318", "team": "TOR" }, { "id": "8478402", "team": "EDM" }, { "id": "8480803", "team": "EDM" }, { "id": "8479345", "team": "WSH" }, { "id": "8477939", "team": "TOR" }, { "id": "8478178", "team": "TOR" }, { "id": "8477949", "team": "WSH" }, { "id": "8476462", "team": "NJD" }, { "id": "8482259", "team": "SEA" }, { "id": "8482684", "team": "NJD" }, { "id": "8478458", "team": "TOR" }, { "id": "8480002", "team": "NJD" }, { "id": "8484186", "team": "WSH" }, { "id": "8482146", "team": "NJD" }, { "id": "8482159", "team": "PHI" }, { "id": "8475172", "team": "COL" }, { "id": "8474586", "team": "SEA" }, { "id": "8477986", "team": "SEA" }, { "id": "8474150", "team": "CGY" }, { "id": "8482679", "team": "CGY" }, { "id": "8480069", "team": "COL" }, { "id": "8471214", "team": "WSH" }, { "id": "8485406", "team": "PHI" }, { "id": "8483787", "team": "PHI" }, { "id": "8481533", "team": "PHI" } ], "selectionBasis": "Default eligible full-slate Model SOG ranking before this adjustment; filters never change membership." }, "goalModelVersion": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "goalModelDescription": "Current Model SOG × shot-weighted shooting percentage from current plus two prior seasons, regressed with 100 prior shots toward a forward/defense baseline excluding the player; confirmed-only goalie adjustment; Poisson 1+ goal probability. No additional PP or matchup boost.", "btb": { "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "date": "2026-10-28", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historyThrough": "2026-10-27", "comparisonPlayers": 143, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "notes": "Experimental ranking index, not probability. Individual metrics use all listed players; unit/exposure percentiles use comparable forward-line or defensive-pair groups. Raw ranks fixed before filtering. All players retained individually. Missing inputs neutral50; known no-PP role0 only where current PP-unit coverage is present. Goalie-neutral Goal baseline avoids counting the current goalie factor in both Goal model and Goalie groups. Correlated groups are capped, not claimed independent.", "samplePolicy": "Team H2H ratios use own observed SOG × regressed shooting baseline with 10-game prior, plus games/(games+10) confidence shrink. Player-goalie scoring uses50-shot prior plus shots/(shots+50) shrink. Exposure uses games/(games+5). iXG uses10-game .2 xG/game prior. These are provisional, not fitted.", "limits": "PP-unit statistics require verified exact-five production; no player/team fallback, allocated-minute estimate or PP-matchup projection is used. Missing PP-unit production is neutral. Exposure xGA describes overall unit allowance, not defenseman-specific shot allowance. Shift coverage is partial. Prior previews used different defender normalization and forecast-based H2H denominators; this audited revision supersedes those scores." }, "bettingLinesStatus": "Updated dated sportsbook snapshot", "bettingLinesUpdatedAt": "2026-10-28T20:24:50.465914+00:00" }, "players": [ { "id": "8470613", "name": "Brent Burns", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 2.097560975609756, "currentTOI": 16.038888888888888, "currentFiveTOI": 14.009722222222223, "ppShare": 0.003443708609271523, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.018055555555555557, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.492, "currentIXG": 0.041, "priorTOI": 18.87621951219512, "priorPPTOI": 0.6254065040650406, "deploymentChange": -2.837330623306233, "ppTOIChange": -0.607350948509485, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020573", "date": "20241228", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020560", "date": "20241227", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 15.0, "toi": 21.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05160215298923441, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 361.0, "goalExpected": 0.08043872840256298, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08326333556189369, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07728856214446286, "goalProbability": 0.07989118205800932, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2602619913546461, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.5588250439733524, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.996530187369882, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.009722222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003443708609271523, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01579083885209713, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.0019232912258917, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.425684408412643, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.189795255118621, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.568902439024392, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11416878263357412, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9298540965207632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9484380051215702, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8819089643582726, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.001603077909587, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020573", "date": "20241228", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020560", "date": "20241227", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 15.0, "toi": 21.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020309", "date": "20241121", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020050", "date": "20241015", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 30, "priorAttempts": 240, "fitPct": -1.7187331626143276, "index": 98.28126683738567, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.33333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 182 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.5000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.5000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.499999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.16666666666666669, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.7187331626143276, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1122271250846514, "attemptProjection": 1.3062090200222505, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 49.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 10087.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.009722222222223, "projectedAttempts": 4.083333333333334, "onNet": 0.3420392680504486, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.01579083885209713, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1258847392201177, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.209218072553451, "baseline": 2.097560975609756, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8470613", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5645552337759732, "adjustedSOG": 1.5588250439733524, "reductionPct": 0.3662504000444433, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1258847392201177, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1163344228824166, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1258847392201177, "afterRecentZones": 1.1258847392201177, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1258847392201177, "adjusted": 1.1163344228824166, "playerFactor": 0.9915175008550907, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9484380051215702, "newChartFactor": 0.9484380051215702, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9457449135856488, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0391569742827893, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5588250439733524, "adjustedSOG": 1.5588250439733524, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 60, "beforeSOG": 1.5588250439733524, "adjustedSOG": 1.5588250439733524 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 360.0, "goalExpected": 0.08897606105721359, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08897606105721359, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08513252572756506, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05788592528037061, "modelSOG": 1.5588250439733524, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 361.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04986149584487535, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05160215298923441, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.154808512429696, "btb": { "id": "8470613", "name": "Brent Burns", "score": 41.154808512429696, "components": { "Goal model": 22.142857142857142, "SOG model": 57.857142857142854, "Unit attack": 60.869565217391305, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 8.571428571428571, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 68.61176470588235, "Goalie H2H": 46.088794926004226 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5399465882466745, "unitPlayers": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 95 } }, { "id": "8471214", "name": "Alex Ovechkin", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": 2.975609756097561, "currentTOI": 13.958333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 9.691666666666666, "ppShare": 0.7153284671532847, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4299999999999997, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.8519999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.18519999999999998, "priorTOI": 17.448373983739838, "priorPPTOI": 4.254065040650406, "deploymentChange": -3.4900406504065042, "ppTOIChange": -0.8240650406504066, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 3.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15099124156704935, "goalHistoryGoals": 77.0, "goalHistoryShots": 495.0, "goalExpected": 0.31031315707640744, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31031315707640744, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26678269192037435, "goalProbability": 0.26678269192037435, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.055173226313325, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.190885640584694, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.498542274052478, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.691666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7153284671532847, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.820109489051095, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0000072876742885, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2058.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.23061630218688, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.760152890587673, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.268292682926829, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.9721590011797818, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0638861304203906, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0685251218294034, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1367890571200605, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.350318471337579, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.621309370988446, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 15.75 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Ovechkin", "Ilya Protas", "Anthony Beauvillier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 227, "fitPct": 2.2841707276467815, "index": 102.28417072764678, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.162995594713657, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.419970631424379, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.101321585903086, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.519823788546255, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.462555066079295, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 121, "fitPct": 10.551250668943467, "index": 110.55125066894347, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.900826446280991, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 31.983471074380166, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.3057851239669422, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 52.47933884297521, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.3305785123966942, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.2841707276467815, "zonePPFit": 10.551250668943467, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.592948002450017, "attemptProjection": 1.981820145139671, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 5815.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.691666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.4680297787564224, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 2058.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.820109489051095, "projectedAttempts": 1.3364814538954268, "onNet": 0.44347381429241056, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1833553829959893, "ppAdjusted": 0.4040286907988546, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.787384073794844, "baseline": 2.975609756097561, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8471214", "goals": 0, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 13, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 9 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2626743467159307, "adjustedSOG": 2.209863684207876, "reductionPct": 2.333993072609175, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1833553829959893, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1812131968905346, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1215352827764073, "afterRecentZones": 1.1826787596112847, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1208940071207574, "adjusted": 1.118864892619531, "playerFactor": 0.9981897356143079, "defenseFactor": 0.9477586352266659, "oldChartFactor": 1.0685251218294034, "newChartFactor": 1.0672531372337641, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 47.166666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9862897526501766, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7529604082771819, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4040286907988546, "afterPlayerForm": 0.38050141032855544, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4040286907988546, "afterRecentZones": 0.4040286907988546, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4040286907988546, "adjusted": 0.38050141032855544, "playerFactor": 0.9417682926829268, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6423220973782772, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.209863684207876, "adjustedSOG": 2.209863684207876, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 27, "beforeSOG": 2.209863684207876, "adjustedSOG": 2.055173226313325 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 77.0, "goalHistoryShots": 494.0, "goalExpected": 0.2320236230275347, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24024860584677438, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2070726082601717, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.649506665207078 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12839788732394367, "modelSOG": 2.055173226313325, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 65, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 77.0, "historyShots": 495.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15555555555555556, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15099124156704935, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.11952380952381, "btb": { "id": "8471214", "name": "Alex Ovechkin", "score": 65.11952380952381, "components": { "Goal model": 89.28571428571429, "SOG model": 76.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 40.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 62.142857142857146, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 71.51111111111112, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.32383253281599, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Ovechkin", "Ilya Protas", "Anthony Beauvillier" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 20 } }, { "id": "8474150", "name": "Mikael Backlund", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.7777777777777777, "priorSOG": 2.268292682926829, "currentTOI": 17.814814814814817, "currentFiveTOI": 14.025925925925925, "ppShare": 0.020294266869609334, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07407407407407407, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.02, "currentIXG": 0.33555555555555555, "priorTOI": 17.94857723577236, "priorPPTOI": 1.0473577235772358, "deploymentChange": -0.13376242095754165, "ppTOIChange": -0.9732836495031617, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.833333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09643065123966175, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 386.0, "goalExpected": 0.20933101356309886, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22179039633732833, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18887330273724526, "goalProbability": 0.19891674327667114, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.0043440539425879, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.170793320091168, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.456825983628201, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.025925925925925, "Current_PP_Share": 0.020294266869609334, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07147835534441319, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 0.9775426619938402, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 40.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1971.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.28051391862955, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.780710265864546, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.668292682926829, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.27810459280047495, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9085298924311536, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9405008101866258, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8544730999102679, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.24330755502677, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Farabee", "Mikael Backlund", "Matt Coronato" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 209, "fitPct": -1.983306327112473, "index": 98.01669367288753, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.567689276667604, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.004221784407537, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.497326203208555, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 57 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.155924570785253, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.609062763861525, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.165775401069519, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.983306327112473, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.4220453553362105, "attemptProjection": 2.7612739510789455, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 7574.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.025925925925925, "projectedAttempts": 4.888888888888888, "onNet": 0.5038170966270746, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 40.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07147835534441319, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.2583263198742447, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5916596532075777, "baseline": 2.268292682926829, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474150", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.462312865095278, "adjustedSOG": 2.381822822132069, "reductionPct": 3.2688796011344445, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.2583263198742447, "afterPlayerForm": 2.124176248268896, "afterRecentDefense": 2.2583263198742447, "afterRecentZones": 2.2583263198742447, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.2583263198742447, "adjusted": 2.124176248268896, "playerFactor": 0.9405975697910571, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9405008101866258, "newChartFactor": 0.9405008101866258, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6370996572245705, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.384747837482286, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.6666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.381822822132069, "adjustedSOG": 2.334186365689428, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 24, "beforeSOG": 2.334186365689428, "adjustedSOG": 2.170793320091168 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 385.0, "goalExpected": 0.24342867254630804, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24342867254630804, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21606460984661804, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12865296502475618, "modelSOG": 2.170793320091168, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 386.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08808290155440414, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09643065123966175, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 56.52920798991251, "btb": { "id": "8474150", "name": "Mikael Backlund", "score": 56.52920798991251, "components": { "Goal model": 67.14285714285714, "SOG model": 83.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 85.71428571428571, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 31.058823529411764, "Goalie H2H": 49.910554561717355 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6258325117182384, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Farabee", "Mikael Backlund", "Matt Coronato" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 46 } }, { "id": "8474586", "name": "Jordan Eberle", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 2.1, "currentTOI": 16.648611111111112, "currentFiveTOI": 13.22638888888889, "ppShare": 0.4664887307236062, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 30.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1847222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.384, "currentIXG": 0.36533333333333334, "priorTOI": 18.476458333333333, "priorPPTOI": 2.5166666666666666, "deploymentChange": -1.8278472222222213, "ppTOIChange": -0.3319444444444444, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14243713038637093, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 264.0, "goalExpected": 0.3096336338672892, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.30520046703008785, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2662842844216539, "goalProbability": 0.26302437973163495, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.32599046900189665, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.173826677267267, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.072771185550772, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.731722822631914, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.22638888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4664887307236062, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.451009539343614, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 0.9659555003468241, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1573.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.7190254600666375, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.728476821192054, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.818958333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6045485171912075, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9106786427145709, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1646285325754748, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8472755225702051, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.060602331312496, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.222492634814909, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.530805687203792, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.983333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bobby McMann", "Matty Beniers", "Jordan Eberle" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 178, "fitPct": 5.487617752515831, "index": 105.48761775251583, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.80964970257766, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.014540647719762, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.37144745538665, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.80964970257766, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.598149372108395, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.396563119629876, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": -5.090815914326498, "index": 94.9091840856735, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 91.53846153846155, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7692307692307693, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.487617752515831, "zonePPFit": -5.090815914326498, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.59800626404848, "attemptProjection": 2.462098304940277, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 45.0, "sog": 24.0, "seconds": 9523.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.22638888888889, "projectedAttempts": 3.7500000000000004, "onNet": 0.5168656148077019, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1573.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.451009539343614, "projectedAttempts": 0.6544335705812575, "onNet": 0.5525504646689378, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.1060477614307027, "ppAdjusted": 0.424004523063676, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5300522844943787, "baseline": 2.1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8474586", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.358031370696627, "adjustedSOG": 2.33744804007233, "reductionPct": 0.8729031716917413, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.1060477614307027, "afterPlayerForm": 2.0736972835134453, "afterRecentDefense": 2.1045138752968366, "afterRecentZones": 2.105595745331706, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.1040621884122284, "adjusted": 2.0717422103902075, "playerFactor": 0.9846392477370595, "defenseFactor": 0.9992716755232445, "oldChartFactor": 1.1646285325754748, "newChartFactor": 1.1641321817467678, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.43333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9025533812789207, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9965341609848044, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.424004523063676, "afterPlayerForm": 0.424004523063676, "afterRecentDefense": 0.424004523063676, "afterRecentZones": 0.424004523063676, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.424004523063676, "adjusted": 0.424004523063676, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8472755225702051, "newChartFactor": 0.8252761048576507, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.783333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1719128329297819, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.33744804007233, "adjustedSOG": 2.33744804007233, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 22, "beforeSOG": 2.33744804007233, "adjustedSOG": 2.173826677267267 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 38.0, "goalHistoryShots": 257.0, "goalExpected": 0.2894521714221224, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2748447724868469, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25132639995183303, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.1016438820189407 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847115460639016, "modelSOG": 2.173826677267267, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 42, "2025": 80, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 264.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14772727272727273, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14243713038637093, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.42630292553724, "btb": { "id": "8474586", "name": "Jordan Eberle", "score": 59.42630292553724, "components": { "Goal model": 88.57142857142857, "SOG model": 85.0, "Unit attack": 16.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50.0, "Shot quality": 92.14285714285714, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 42.89230769230769, "Goalie H2H": 52.040368582711714 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1206861868392313, "unitPlayers": [ "Bobby McMann", "Matty Beniers", "Jordan Eberle" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 38 } }, { "id": "8475166", "name": "John Tavares", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 2.4285714285714284, "priorSOG": 2.341463414634146, "currentTOI": 16.521428571428572, "currentFiveTOI": 11.985714285714286, "ppShare": 0.6780341023069207, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.219047619047619, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.43 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.512, "currentIXG": 0.3588571428571429, "priorTOI": 18.177439024390242, "priorPPTOI": 2.584552845528455, "deploymentChange": -1.6560104529616702, "ppTOIChange": 0.634494773519164, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16470599905222694, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 409.0, "goalExpected": 0.38388994687183065, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.38388994687183065, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31879360805121926, "goalProbability": 0.31879360805121926, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.3307587403061274, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.721096543504172, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.63905325443787, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.985714285714286, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6780341023069207, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.808393036251612, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2857142857142857, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 0.989856514368911, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1352.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1994.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.133051742344245, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.30607109153822, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.435975609756097, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6946052832827145, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0437592994609362, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1561333697063714, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.721096543504172, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.63905325443787, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 194, "fitPct": 5.204445656879045, "index": 105.20444565687905, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.238987816307404, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.970009372071228, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.66541705716963, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 87 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.78444236176195, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.516401124648548, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8247422680412372, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 9.649142579409656, "index": 109.64914257940966, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.7647058823529416, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.823529411764707, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 69.6078431372549, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.607843137254902, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.941176470588235, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.254901960784313, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.204445656879045, "zonePPFit": 9.649142579409656, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.603294257773319, "attemptProjection": 2.236635517028494, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 5034.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.985714285714286, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.5212313606710158, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 1352.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.808393036251612, "projectedAttempts": 1.2463282705258634, "onNet": 0.550496640373941, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.247403328148089, "ppAdjusted": 0.8868472735385322, "other": 0.2857142857142857 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.4199648874009068, "baseline": 2.341463414634146, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475166", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.3885642982942024, "adjustedSOG": 2.378325245210334, "reductionPct": 0.4286697700028652, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.247403328148089, "afterPlayerForm": 1.247403328148089, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2347729519377226, "afterRecentZones": 1.2429232536313535, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2303382396749751, "adjusted": 1.2303382396749751, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.98987466529441, "oldChartFactor": 1.1561333697063714, "newChartFactor": 1.1482514250252882, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.61666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0698635959658411, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9526083956907074, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.8868472735385322, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8868472735385322, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8868472735385322, "afterRecentZones": 0.8868472735385322, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8868472735385322, "adjusted": 0.8868472735385322, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0766780432309442, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.378325245210334, "adjustedSOG": 2.3307587403061274, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.3307587403061274, "adjustedSOG": 2.3307587403061274 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 409.0, "goalExpected": 0.3909968488420563, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.38651925417740535, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.323617712576651, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.30353561975061116 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283535351758352, "modelSOG": 2.3307587403061274, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 82, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 71.0, "historyShots": 409.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17359413202933985, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16470599905222694, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475171", "name": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 0.7857142857142857, "priorSOG": 1.3846153846153846, "currentTOI": 17.833333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 14.939285714285715, "ppShare": 0.07639257294429708, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.34285714285714286, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.79 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.669, "currentIXG": 0.047785714285714286, "priorTOI": 20.59594017094017, "priorPPTOI": 1.7314102564102565, "deploymentChange": -2.762606837606839, "ppTOIChange": -1.3885531135531135, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05277714798976303, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 237.0, "goalExpected": 0.057943731899867866, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.057943731899867866, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.056296953679596785, "goalProbability": 0.056296953679596785, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.0978943369790837, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.8687544824288786, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.939285714285715, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07639257294429708, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3164153088291019, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07142857142857142, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0064482949600444, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 288.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.760852075553261, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.997038134024435, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.79465811965812, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46532099883859884, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1212121212121213, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0853597541342948, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.8499486125385407, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Dakota Mermis", "Oliver Ekman-Larsson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": 10.949577372963248, "index": 110.94957737296325, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.08199643493762, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 95 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.54188948306595, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.786096256684493, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.438502673796791, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": 2.845325137809823, "index": 102.84532513780982, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 32.72727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 35.45454545454545, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.949577372963248, "zonePPFit": 2.845325137809823, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8928571428571427, "attemptProjection": 0.9974402852846196, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 12549.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.939285714285715, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.38284471201274883, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 288.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.3164153088291019, "projectedAttempts": 0.13183971201212577, "onNet": 0.3979933110367893, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8442609160313694, "ppAdjusted": 0.029459226610940262, "other": 0.07142857142857142 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9451487140708812, "baseline": 1.3846153846153846, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475171", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1209353822886827, "adjustedSOG": 1.1203003438562078, "reductionPct": 0.05665254594590108, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8442609160313694, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8442609160313694, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8432025186439115, "afterRecentZones": 0.8442609160313694, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8432025186439114, "adjusted": 0.8432025186439114, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9987463622117753, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 74.08333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1091033263699182, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9941323514003023, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.029459226610940262, "afterPlayerForm": 0.029459226610940262, "afterRecentDefense": 0.029459226610940262, "afterRecentZones": 0.029459226610940262, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.029459226610940262, "adjusted": 0.029459226610940262, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0853597541342948, "newChartFactor": 1.0853597541342948, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1707317073170733, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1203003438562078, "adjustedSOG": 1.0978943369790837, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 105, "beforeSOG": 1.0978943369790837, "adjustedSOG": 1.0978943369790837 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 234.0, "goalExpected": 0.05187742752676923, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05128334066034665, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05055476443833698, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.05642205262422484 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785898872550141, "modelSOG": 1.0978943369790837, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 78, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 237.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05063291139240506, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05277714798976303, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 33.912919254658384, "btb": { "id": "8475171", "name": "Oliver Ekman-Larsson", "score": 33.912919254658384, "components": { "Goal model": 14.285714285714286, "SOG model": 25.714285714285715, "Unit attack": 13.043478260869565, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 5.714285714285714, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 52.628571428571426, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9831589698881407, "unitPlayers": [ "Dakota Mermis", "Oliver Ekman-Larsson" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 114 } }, { "id": "8475172", "name": "Nazem Kadri", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.5833333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.7662337662337664, "currentTOI": 19.594444444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 15.091666666666667, "ppShare": 0.6543046357615894, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 31.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4305555555555554, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.58 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.07, "currentIXG": 0.33916666666666667, "priorTOI": 19.033549783549784, "priorPPTOI": 3.0664502164502165, "deploymentChange": 0.560894660894661, "ppTOIChange": 0.3641053391053388, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020777", "date": "20260119", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021090", "date": "20250320", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10411712153635408, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 523.0, "goalExpected": 0.22819108972302624, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23620402327539947, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20402785679442748, "goalProbability": 0.21038044327075153, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6352586476324057, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.19167689574812, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.963556046383213, "Current_PP_SOG60": 16.032388663967613, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.091666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6543046357615894, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0002593818984544, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 0.9872883796894324, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2470.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.098928083047833, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.926801722312415, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.72056277056277, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5597845336481699, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.879552162353343, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8509060409843779, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0097605738341053, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9881502886744941, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.329122668508832, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.926663648709823, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020777", "date": "20260119", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021090", "date": "20250320", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 20.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020173", "date": "20241101", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Nazem Kadri", "T.J. Hughes" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 226, "fitPct": -4.969798633854069, "index": 95.03020136614593, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.086725663716816, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.702654867256639, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.86725663716814, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 84 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.256637168141594, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.962831858407082, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.1238938053097347, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 75, "fitPct": 0.3253524611368448, "index": 100.32535246113684, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.1333333333333337, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.960022095323765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.563636363636363, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.1590643804079832, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.99393939393939, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.192601018350743, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.654545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.939172125610597, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.12121212121212, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.674751114086661, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.23947798786446, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.969798633854069, "zonePPFit": 0.3253524611368448, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2338556282262085, "attemptProjection": 2.0555743198195287, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 10866.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.091666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.9166666666666665, "onNet": 0.5101036127405296, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 2470.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0002593818984544, "projectedAttempts": 1.0932119205298012, "onNet": 0.5696892064990224, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2888384405790412, "ppAdjusted": 0.689209866777161, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1447149740228686, "baseline": 2.7662337662337664, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475172", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.3933224909072277, "adjustedSOG": 2.356641823385075, "reductionPct": 1.5326253633394904, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2888384405790412, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2590484776815305, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2888384405790414, "afterRecentZones": 1.2888384405790414, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2888384405790414, "adjusted": 1.2590484776815307, "playerFactor": 0.9768861930560305, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8509060409843779, "newChartFactor": 0.8426198747682855, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.859000625844066, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0090364822745925, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.689209866777161, "afterPlayerForm": 0.689209866777161, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6578653838044168, "afterRecentZones": 0.689209866777161, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6578653838044168, "adjusted": 0.6578653838044168, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1.0097605738341053, "newChartFactor": 1.0097605738341053, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.716666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0843524615867044, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.356641823385075, "adjustedSOG": 2.356641823385075, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 21, "beforeSOG": 2.356641823385075, "adjustedSOG": 2.19167689574812 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 520.0, "goalExpected": 0.24314240038063067, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24314240038063067, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21584015883922256, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12864966717148593, "modelSOG": 2.19167689574812, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 77, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 52.0, "historyShots": 523.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0994263862332696, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10411712153635408, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 64.08772316830456, "btb": { "id": "8475172", "name": "Nazem Kadri", "score": 64.08772316830456, "components": { "Goal model": 71.42857142857143, "SOG model": 85.71428571428571, "Unit attack": 53.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 58.333333333333336, "Shot quality": 89.28571428571429, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 56.51428571428571, "Goalie H2H": 49.55277280858676 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.462614241278381, "unitPlayers": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Nazem Kadri", "T.J. Hughes" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 21 } }, { "id": "8475218", "name": "Mattias Ekholm", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.5975609756097562, "currentTOI": 21.015, "currentFiveTOI": 17.585, "ppShare": 0.07526501766784452, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.355, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.533, "currentIXG": 0.0533, "priorTOI": 20.572357723577237, "priorPPTOI": 0.45365853658536587, "deploymentChange": 0.4426422764227631, "ppTOIChange": -0.09865853658536589, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05687424188528474, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 283.0, "goalExpected": 0.07172769606148788, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07054633532031991, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06921568245865597, "goalProbability": 0.06811544064413441, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11002418145215631, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.2611631150383074, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.7295990901336364, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.585, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07526501766784452, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.37254283113823744, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9968813884137818, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 213.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2830.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.885744113211924, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 1.6129032258064515, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.522357723577233, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11138947389433972, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0388007054673722, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1355179744953219, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.9499129365973573, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 25.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mattias Ekholm", "Evan Bouchard" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": 4.517265816510729, "index": 104.51726581651073, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 61.62162162162163, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 100 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.5945945945945947, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.8918918918918917, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.43243243243243, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2972972972972974, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.162162162162162, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.517265816510729, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.02, "attemptProjection": 1.058070580936236, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 10551.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.585, "projectedAttempts": 2.2, "onNet": 0.38697066023603344, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 213.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.37254283113823744, "projectedAttempts": 0.1049416425741514, "onNet": 0.40579710144927533, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9167901872913089, "ppAdjusted": 0.022245103176809066, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0390352904681182, "baseline": 1.5975609756097562, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475218", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2624455645247734, "adjustedSOG": 1.2611631150383074, "reductionPct": 0.10158453738547957, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9167901872913089, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9158790594802445, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9167901872913089, "afterRecentZones": 0.9155626793651345, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9155626793651345, "adjusted": 0.9146527714805324, "playerFactor": 0.9990061763054463, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1355179744953219, "newChartFactor": 1.1324878498996553, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 88.41666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9944392082940621, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.157696537898326, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.022245103176809066, "afterPlayerForm": 0.022245103176809066, "afterRecentDefense": 0.022245103176809066, "afterRecentZones": 0.022245103176809066, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.022245103176809066, "adjusted": 0.022245103176809066, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.028571428571429, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2611631150383074, "adjustedSOG": 1.2611631150383074, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 82, "beforeSOG": 1.2611631150383074, "adjustedSOG": 1.2611631150383074 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 283.0, "goalExpected": 0.06599002163106621, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0660052170183786, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06385979460264252, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.001422490492297701 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782834642064055, "modelSOG": 1.2611631150383074, "historyGames": 157, "seasonGames": { "2024": 65, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 283.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05653710247349823, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05687424188528474, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.21664899102081, "btb": { "id": "8475218", "name": "Mattias Ekholm", "score": 41.21664899102081, "components": { "Goal model": 20.714285714285715, "SOG model": 42.142857142857146, "Unit attack": 78.26086956521739, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 14.285714285714286, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 52.55, "Goalie H2H": 48.74945151382185 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.794323471405397, "unitPlayers": [ "Mattias Ekholm", "Evan Bouchard" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 94 } }, { "id": "8475253", "name": "Garrett Wilson", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 9.808333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 9.558333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": 8.677777777777779, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 1.1305555555555546, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1247758153954448, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.048912119635014364, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.048912119635014364, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0477351885993494, "goalProbability": 0.0477351885993494, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.392, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.558333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9933397555142174, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 493.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.914212548015365, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.677777777777779, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9915590863952334, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9915590863952334, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1147.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.558333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.49883372209263577, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.0, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 3, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475253", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.4, "adjustedSOG": 0.4, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.116666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1686511240632804, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.4, "adjustedSOG": 0.392, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.392, "adjustedSOG": 0.392 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.04994383198288051, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04938963658913469, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04871714532816673, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.052734268815583796 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851908985730814, "modelSOG": 0.392, "historyGames": 5, "seasonGames": { "2025": 3, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 3.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1247758153954448, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475455", "name": "Brenden Dillon", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.14285714285714285, "priorSOG": 0.6707317073170732, "currentTOI": 14.630952380952381, "currentFiveTOI": 13.254761904761905, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.14 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.101, "currentIXG": 0.01442857142857143, "priorTOI": 17.997560975609755, "priorPPTOI": 0.01849593495934959, "deploymentChange": -3.3666085946573734, "ppTOIChange": -0.01849593495934959, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 22.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0528642829680892, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.026132410939424155, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02660100672066422, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.025793914474815254, "goalProbability": 0.0262503163941923, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.045640191937704536, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.49433018802503437, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.6466678641997485, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.254761904761905, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9969135802469136, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2478.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.6153805510791748, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.38739837398374, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004768842167045728, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0101010101010102, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0618648726653572, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0725907804700578, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.9526329716856311, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 22.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brenden Dillon", "Johnathan Kovacevic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 84, "fitPct": 2.0621624221785737, "index": 102.06216242217857, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 77.52380952380953, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 62 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.4285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.9523809523809524, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9523809523809524, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4761904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.0621624221785737, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.1532272543528654, "attemptProjection": 0.6424168011688286, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 5567.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.254761904761905, "projectedAttempts": 1.8571428571428572, "onNet": 0.3311410720157843, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.397822027760847, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.397822027760847, "baseline": 0.6707317073170732, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475455", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5069858995833375, "adjustedSOG": 0.5044185592092187, "reductionPct": 0.5063928555466113, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.397822027760847, "afterPlayerForm": 0.39402533487448654, "afterRecentDefense": 0.397822027760847, "afterRecentZones": 0.39733517363542803, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.39733517363542803, "adjusted": 0.39354312713731576, "playerFactor": 0.9904563030163758, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0618648726653572, "newChartFactor": 1.0551170744870506, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 68.31666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9402480905286468, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3247605265715614, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5044185592092187, "adjustedSOG": 0.49433018802503437, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 138, "beforeSOG": 0.49433018802503437, "adjustedSOG": 0.49433018802503437 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 104.0, "goalExpected": 0.024452022004020333, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02427235367166459, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.024155493140890265, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.017534410660581534 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05784313725490196, "modelSOG": 0.49433018802503437, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 104.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04807692307692308, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0528642829680892, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.6638594014681, "btb": { "id": "8475455", "name": "Brenden Dillon", "score": 28.6638594014681, "components": { "Goal model": 1.4285714285714286, "SOG model": 2.142857142857143, "Unit attack": 69.56521739130434, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 13.571428571428571, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 59.94285714285714, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.755478334183742, "unitPlayers": [ "Brenden Dillon", "Johnathan Kovacevic" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 133 } }, { "id": "8475690", "name": "Chris Tanev", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.16666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.7272727272727273, "currentTOI": 16.841666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 13.075000000000001, "ppShare": 0.009549071618037135, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 11, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.049999999999999996, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.17 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.020999999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.0034999999999999996, "priorTOI": 17.972727272727273, "priorPPTOI": 0.018181818181818184, "deploymentChange": -1.1310606060606077, "ppTOIChange": 0.031818181818181815, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.7 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05777643804355121, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 52.0, "goalExpected": 0.021959019762648364, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.021959019762648364, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021719675610340945, "goalProbability": 0.021719675610340945, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.38006877035403097, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.7648183556405354, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.075000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009549071618037135, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03955191360363774, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0064482949600444, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1885.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.908503332660069, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.003030303030302, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.004886410812077777, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1212121212121213, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.7648183556405354, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.7 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": 9.351183664653817, "index": 109.35118366465382, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 9.351183664653817, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.19166666666666665, "attemptProjection": 0.15144054495069995, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 4707.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.075000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 0.33333333333333337, "onNet": 0.4011901449422002, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03955191360363774, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.17155360580868328, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.17155360580868328, "baseline": 0.7272727272727273, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 11, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8475690", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.3938412543943009, "adjustedSOG": 0.3878252758714602, "reductionPct": 1.5275135491056746, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.17155360580868328, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1617297254325636, "afterRecentDefense": 0.17133853972573532, "afterRecentZones": 0.17155360580868328, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.17133853972573532, "adjusted": 0.16152697493728213, "playerFactor": 0.9427357977711335, "defenseFactor": 0.9987463622117753, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.63333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6262639701969133, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9941323514003023, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.3878252758714602, "adjustedSOG": 0.38006877035403097, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.38006877035403097, "adjustedSOG": 0.38006877035403097 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 52.0, "goalExpected": 0.02186381540875718, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.021613436656311758, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.021626534630489917, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.024499459712583327 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782018582619785, "modelSOG": 0.38006877035403097, "historyGames": 92, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 11, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 52.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.057692307692307696, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05777643804355121, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475718", "name": "Justin Holl", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.7777777777777778, "currentTOI": 12.983333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.144444444444444, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 9, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.101, "currentIXG": 0.03366666666666667, "priorTOI": 15.672222222222224, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -2.68888888888889, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020751", "date": "20250121", "team": "DET", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020507", "date": "20241218", "team": "DET", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.357142857142858, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07184800595102549, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.044151828037211543, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.044151828037211543, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04319132393884339, "goalProbability": 0.04319132393884339, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.6145170969296938, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.293687099725526, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.144444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0036241774400185, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 879.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787037037037037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1080989196560906, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.293687099725526, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020751", "date": "20250121", "team": "DET", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020507", "date": "20241218", "team": "DET", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": 3.6032973218696895, "index": 103.60329732186969, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 34.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.6032973218696895, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7666666666666664, "attemptProjection": 0.29461647252675927, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 2186.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.144444444444444, "projectedAttempts": 0.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.4204209141729694, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5306415695967128, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5306415695967128, "baseline": 0.7777777777777778, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 9, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475718", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021160", "date": "20260328", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6294960528691388, "adjustedSOG": 0.6145170969296938, "reductionPct": 2.3795154665662177, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5306415695967128, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5306415695967128, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5056766430309712, "afterRecentZones": 0.5306415695967128, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5056766430309712, "adjusted": 0.5056766430309712, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.952953315390057, "oldChartFactor": 1.1080989196560906, "newChartFactor": 1.1080989196560906, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 36.43333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7775250740791325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6145170969296938, "adjustedSOG": 0.6145170969296938, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6145170969296938, "adjustedSOG": 0.6145170969296938 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.04507731838673971, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04667525985679568, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04407643149245628, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15262901264066903 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057772008926538235, "modelSOG": 0.6145170969296938, "historyGames": 85, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 9, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 50.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07184800595102549, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475754", "name": "Brock Nelson", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 2.2962962962962963, "currentTOI": 18.32638888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 13.909722222222221, "ppShare": 0.24344370860927153, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2763888888888888, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.469, "currentIXG": 0.2890833333333333, "priorTOI": 19.65329218106996, "priorPPTOI": 3.0987654320987654, "deploymentChange": -1.326903292181072, "ppTOIChange": -1.8223765432098766, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020231", "date": "20241109", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020119", "date": "20241025", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.55 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14968450679449405, "goalHistoryGoals": 62.0, "goalHistoryShots": 400.0, "goalExpected": 0.2707174540544542, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2802237015308082, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23716799895232119, "goalProbability": 0.24438530961500152, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7217310662680332, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.8085870064436902, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.751372940589117, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.7519042437432, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.909722222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24344370860927153, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1162908388520971, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 0.9872883796894324, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 919.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.1591979545148705, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.888446215139442, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.761111111111113, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5656837189095253, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.879552162353343, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8897338772761896, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0822877004102345, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.059125233547622, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.369127516778524, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.044213263979193, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020231", "date": "20241109", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020119", "date": "20241025", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nicolas Roy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": -3.6755374241270147, "index": 96.32446257587299, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.118503118503118, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 37.347193347193354, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.024948024948024, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.415800415800415, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.738045738045734, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.355509355509354, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 2.7429233470078174, "index": 102.74292334700782, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.960022095323765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.1590643804079832, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.600000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.192601018350743, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.939172125610597, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.400000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.674751114086661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.23947798786446, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.6755374241270147, "zonePPFit": 2.7429233470078174, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.531569666129634, "attemptProjection": 1.4792083985726885, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 10015.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.909722222222221, "projectedAttempts": 2.75, "onNet": 0.4982988805174098, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 919.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1162908388520971, "projectedAttempts": 0.21864238410596026, "onNet": 0.5477320457063483, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1665739265801687, "ppAdjusted": 0.1721484391043258, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5053890323511614, "baseline": 2.2962962962962963, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475754", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8217519379292153, "adjustedSOG": 1.8085870064436902, "reductionPct": 0.7226522564037774, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1665739265801687, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1665739265801687, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1665739265801687, "afterRecentZones": 1.1665739265801687, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1665739265801687, "adjusted": 1.1665739265801687, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8897338772761896, "newChartFactor": 0.8840008378428437, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 67.18333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2046037151470046, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0090364822745925, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1721484391043258, "afterPlayerForm": 0.15736360488148798, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1643193233612184, "afterRecentZones": 0.1721484391043258, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1643193233612184, "adjusted": 0.1502068866284508, "playerFactor": 0.9141157811260904, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1.0822877004102345, "newChartFactor": 1.0822877004102345, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.016666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8085870064436902, "adjustedSOG": 1.8085870064436902, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 47, "beforeSOG": 1.8085870064436902, "adjustedSOG": 1.8085870064436902 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 62.0, "goalHistoryShots": 398.0, "goalExpected": 0.2928027755869936, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2928027755869936, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25383071101384924, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284225339724702, "modelSOG": 1.8085870064436902, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 62.0, "historyShots": 400.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.155, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14968450679449405, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.1328428869653, "btb": { "id": "8475754", "name": "Brock Nelson", "score": 67.1328428869653, "components": { "Goal model": 83.57142857142857, "SOG model": 67.14285714285714, "Unit attack": 73.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 84.28571428571429, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 60.800000000000004, "Goalie H2H": 51.90873189995612 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8451642466300844, "unitPlayers": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nicolas Roy" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 13 } }, { "id": "8475768", "name": "Jaden Schwartz", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.64, "currentTOI": 14.06388888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 11.362499999999999, "ppShare": 0.42304635761589404, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2180555555555554, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.58 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.683, "currentIXG": 0.14025, "priorTOI": 16.140666666666664, "priorPPTOI": 1.5556666666666665, "deploymentChange": -2.0767777777777745, "ppTOIChange": 0.6623888888888889, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020820", "date": "20260125", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020735", "date": "20260114", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020640", "date": "20250106", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020420", "date": "20241206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.25 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13379680096104649, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 295.0, "goalExpected": 0.18166947615309845, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18804880254430917, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16612308892361952, "goalProbability": 0.1714257302865494, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5302641362929877, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.35780134389005, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.040704070407041, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.762680025046963, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.362499999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.42304635761589404, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.9398438189845473, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.009251487172001, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1597.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.017627393374531, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.485108206556674, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.161333333333335, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.37369906354057814, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9550419788751467, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.880760704031053, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.902814635401652, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8834931425419936, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.713733848408152, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.952871870397644, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020820", "date": "20260125", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020735", "date": "20260114", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020640", "date": "20250106", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020420", "date": "20241206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Nazem Kadri", "T.J. Hughes" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 96, "fitPct": -3.9746431989648983, "index": 96.0253568010351, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.916666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.500000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.583333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.416666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.166666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.416666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": -3.2395121532782696, "index": 96.76048784672173, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.960022095323765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.1590643804079832, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 77.89473684210526, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.192601018350743, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.939172125610597, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.674751114086661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.1052631578947367, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.23947798786446, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.9746431989648983, "zonePPFit": -3.2395121532782696, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3265023803599818, "attemptProjection": 1.139930574993642, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 8181.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.362499999999999, "projectedAttempts": 2.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.5387063961135761, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1597.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.9398438189845473, "projectedAttempts": 0.21864238410596026, "onNet": 0.5731880177654581, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0776488366461683, "ppAdjusted": 0.15556764103064352, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.233216477676812, "baseline": 1.64, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475768", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3959298866060872, "adjustedSOG": 1.35780134389005, "reductionPct": 2.7314081517904043, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0776488366461683, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0204452610014134, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0776488366461683, "afterRecentZones": 1.0776488366461683, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0776488366461683, "adjusted": 1.0204452610014134, "playerFactor": 0.9469181669394435, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.880760704031053, "newChartFactor": 0.8760412427674648, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6384280936454849, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0636926250644663, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.15556764103064352, "afterPlayerForm": 0.15556764103064352, "afterRecentDefense": 0.14922364548200345, "afterRecentZones": 0.15556764103064352, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.14922364548200345, "adjusted": 0.14922364548200345, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 0.902814635401652, "newChartFactor": 0.902814635401652, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.179032853451458, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.35780134389005, "adjustedSOG": 1.35780134389005, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 76, "beforeSOG": 1.35780134389005, "adjustedSOG": 1.35780134389005 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 293.0, "goalExpected": 0.19685480191030255, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19685480191030255, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17869012271931894, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849736379613358, "modelSOG": 1.35780134389005, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 50, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 295.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13559322033898305, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13379680096104649, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.297683982683985, "btb": { "id": "8475768", "name": "Jaden Schwartz", "score": 51.297683982683985, "components": { "Goal model": 60.0, "SOG model": 46.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 53.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 42.142857142857146, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 36.266666666666666, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.462614241278381, "unitPlayers": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Nazem Kadri", "T.J. Hughes" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 57 } }, { "id": "8475786", "name": "Zach Hyman", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.7413793103448274, "currentTOI": 17.933333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 14.0, "ppShare": 0.6817917393833625, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 58, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.255555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.842, "currentIXG": 0.307, "priorTOI": 19.98390804597701, "priorPPTOI": 3.4560344827586205, "deploymentChange": -2.0505747126436766, "ppTOIChange": -0.20047892720306448, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 23.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.0 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 3.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1493612179543551, "goalHistoryGoals": 59.0, "goalHistoryShots": 381.0, "goalExpected": 0.3659499018398798, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.35992267845189724, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3064624547055653, "goalProbability": 0.30226972642973726, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.41927282758280615, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.4500998776785172, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.5714285714285716, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.286689419795222, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.0, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6817917393833625, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.3746969403164866, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9988205850658111, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1172.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1719.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.251701949081414, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.775754552257421, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.4066091954023, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8485806653012015, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0473353194306523, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1723359574971821, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1542715951219582, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7241379310344827, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.214953271028037, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 23.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.033333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 166, "fitPct": 5.74453191657274, "index": 105.74453191657274, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.48192771084337355, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.407917383820998, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 59.34595524956971, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 104 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.132530120481928, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.096385542168675, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.53528399311532, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 55, "fitPct": 5.142386504065271, "index": 105.14238650406527, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.207792207792208, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 87.06493506493507, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.74453191657274, "zonePPFit": 5.142386504065271, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.253057186172369, "attemptProjection": 2.3296444760314103, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 5040.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.0, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.49084731319068503, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1172.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.3746969403164866, "projectedAttempts": 1.5548944946850705, "onNet": 0.5318468634164285, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9620073984572218, "ppAdjusted": 0.829343432644668, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.29135083110189, "baseline": 2.7413793103448274, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 58, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8475786", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.471362222799065, "adjustedSOG": 2.4500998776785172, "reductionPct": 0.8603492003072755, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9620073984572218, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9447687492273643, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9620073984572217, "afterRecentZones": 0.959387163687716, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.959387163687716, "adjusted": 0.94219546763947, "playerFactor": 0.9820805440192006, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1723359574971821, "newChartFactor": 1.165925253975702, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 68.78333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.888164416150847, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0369741716468963, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.829343432644668, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8137181215948409, "afterRecentDefense": 0.829343432644668, "afterRecentZones": 0.829343432644668, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.829343432644668, "adjusted": 0.8137181215948409, "playerFactor": 0.981159420289855, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1542715951219582, "newChartFactor": 1.1542715951219582, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8739746457867263, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4500998776785172, "adjustedSOG": 2.4500998776785172, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.4500998776785172, "adjustedSOG": 2.4500998776785172 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 59.0, "goalHistoryShots": 379.0, "goalExpected": 0.32535690974751247, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3254318290176714, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27773047739934414, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.005410987852966231 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12842745836044814, "modelSOG": 2.4500998776785172, "historyGames": 137, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 58, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 59.0, "historyShots": 381.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15485564304461943, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1493612179543551, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8475795", "name": "Dylan McIlrath", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.38461538461538464, "currentTOI": 6.579166666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 6.579166666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.005, "currentIXG": 0.00125, "priorTOI": 9.312820512820512, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -2.733653846153845, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.357142857142858, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.050295451150394674, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.009209314725592246, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.009209314725592246, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.009167038863509903, "goalProbability": 0.009167038863509903, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.18310432683175124, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 6.579166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0036241774400185, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1283.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.0267417311752287, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.10897435897436, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787037037037037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.070497189219646, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": 2.3499063073215325, "index": 102.34990630732153, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 95.55555555555554, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.3499063073215325, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.10234209977579574, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1579.0, "expectedMinutes": 6.579166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 0.25, "onNet": 0.3894487752351845, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.05117104988789787, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.05117104988789787, "baseline": 0.38461538461538464, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 13, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8475795", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.18454878377889258, "adjustedSOG": 0.18310432683175124, "reductionPct": 0.7826965410251407, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.05117104988789787, "afterPlayerForm": 0.05117104988789787, "afterRecentDefense": 0.048763621642662285, "afterRecentZones": 0.05117104988789787, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.048763621642662285, "adjusted": 0.048763621642662285, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.952953315390057, "oldChartFactor": 1.070497189219646, "newChartFactor": 1.070497189219646, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.316666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7775250740791325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.18310432683175124, "adjustedSOG": 0.18310432683175124, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.18310432683175124, "adjustedSOG": 0.18310432683175124 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783976882295388, "modelSOG": 0.18310432683175124, "historyGames": 34, "seasonGames": { "2024": 17, "2025": 13, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 15.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.050295451150394674, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476312", "name": "Josh Manson", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.620253164556962, "currentTOI": 15.881944444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 13.762500000000001, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.484, "currentIXG": 0.04033333333333333, "priorTOI": 17.78438818565401, "priorPPTOI": 0.04789029535864979, "deploymentChange": -1.9024437412095647, "ppTOIChange": -0.04789029535864979, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04194457046587887, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 205.0, "goalExpected": 0.04745490084344495, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.049121280401273115, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04634651886954841, "goalProbability": 0.04793434420848724, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.15878253389388294, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.131371720257539, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.359673024523161, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.762500000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.0019232912258917, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.9218642906100065, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 47.57709251101321, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.390295358649787, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008742436616058502, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9298540965207632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9684876742058752, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9005522312901993, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.713584288052373, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 171, "fitPct": -1.0504108598041597, "index": 98.94958914019584, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 77.54385964912281, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 129 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.1988304093567255, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.1988304093567255, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6374269005847955, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.029239766081871, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.3918128654970765, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.0504108598041597, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9005522312901996, "attemptProjection": 0.7103492834923145, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 9909.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.762500000000001, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.442526215791589, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.805450757391257, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.805450757391257, "baseline": 1.620253164556962, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476312", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.131371720257539, "adjustedSOG": 1.131371720257539, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.805450757391257, "afterPlayerForm": 0.805450757391257, "afterRecentDefense": 0.805450757391257, "afterRecentZones": 0.805450757391257, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.805450757391257, "adjusted": 0.805450757391257, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9684876742058752, "newChartFactor": 0.9684876742058752, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0507210518874595, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0391569742827893, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.131371720257539, "adjustedSOG": 1.131371720257539, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 99, "beforeSOG": 1.131371720257539, "adjustedSOG": 1.131371720257539 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 205.0, "goalExpected": 0.05326288874310937, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05326288874310937, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05186927317854062, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057930939920930555, "modelSOG": 1.131371720257539, "historyGames": 139, "seasonGames": { "2024": 48, "2025": 79, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 205.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03414634146341464, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04194457046587887, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.66636221258186, "btb": { "id": "8476312", "name": "Josh Manson", "score": 34.66636221258186, "components": { "Goal model": 12.142857142857142, "SOG model": 30.0, "Unit attack": 60.869565217391305, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 7.857142857142857, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 46.676923076923075, "Goalie H2H": 48.74945151382185 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5399465882466745, "unitPlayers": [ "Josh Manson", "Brent Burns" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 112 } }, { "id": "8476372", "name": "Nick Seeler", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 0.5714285714285714, "priorSOG": 1.175, "currentTOI": 19.444047619047616, "currentFiveTOI": 15.772619047619047, "ppShare": 0.0036135870874488074, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.017857142857142856, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.57 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.226, "currentIXG": 0.016142857142857143, "priorTOI": 17.686041666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.036041666666666666, "deploymentChange": 1.7580059523809481, "ppTOIChange": -0.01818452380952381, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04503632117051326, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.038109812076894595, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.038109812076894595, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03739277081197597, "goalProbability": 0.03739277081197597, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.8462017120049833, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.630311721639369, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.772619047619047, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0036135870874488074, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.018887015177065765, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0025049991305859, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4151.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.181070408679137, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.247291666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.008464362088058959, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0437102819169868, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0746350310108235, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.051087266166556, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cam York", "Nick Seeler" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 143, "fitPct": 1.4570093972328948, "index": 101.4570093972329, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 64.81118881118881, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 103 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.5594405594405595, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.237762237762238, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.993006993006993, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.5594405594405595, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8391608391608394, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.4570093972328948, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6034150132903529, "attemptProjection": 0.7936503061966345, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 13249.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.772619047619047, "projectedAttempts": 1.7857142857142856, "onNet": 0.34482516715992545, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.018887015177065765, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5556755168863508, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6985326597434937, "baseline": 1.175, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476372", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8891195958460962, "adjustedSOG": 0.8634711346989625, "reductionPct": 2.884703167825964, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5556755168863508, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5139108943940028, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5556755168863508, "afterRecentZones": 0.5546128326926245, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5546128326926245, "adjusted": 0.512928081641128, "playerFactor": 0.9248399088619739, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0437102819169868, "newChartFactor": 1.038893799600098, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.98333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5591474994724626, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0465532454298034, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.08333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8634711346989625, "adjustedSOG": 0.8462017120049833, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 124, "beforeSOG": 0.8462017120049833, "adjustedSOG": 0.8462017120049833 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.04054427625844219, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04009438184199276, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.039733353444064375, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.04321157985421112 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05790315212425765, "modelSOG": 0.8462017120049833, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 184.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03804347826086957, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04503632117051326, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 27.379772256728778, "btb": { "id": "8476372", "name": "Nick Seeler", "score": 27.379772256728778, "components": { "Goal model": 7.142857142857143, "SOG model": 12.142857142857142, "Unit attack": 52.17391304347826, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 0.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 34.17777777777778, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4657315104414135, "unitPlayers": [ "Cam York", "Nick Seeler" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 138 } }, { "id": "8476432", "name": "Boone Jenner", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 1.9701492537313432, "currentTOI": 15.893333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.623333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0076468543621828295, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.475, "currentIXG": 0.2475, "priorTOI": 16.079353233830844, "priorPPTOI": 0.7721393034825871, "deploymentChange": -0.18601990049750938, "ppTOIChange": -0.7354726368159205, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11270982904288877, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 227.0, "goalExpected": 0.23583140631399, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23583140631399, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21008616280731246, "goalProbability": 0.21008616280731246, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.092376577239333, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.456825983628201, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.623333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0076468543621828295, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04083693331347138, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 0.9970876670412914, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 22.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.654574279585937, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.278350515463918, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.337064676616915, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17826124410559477, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0638861304203906, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0240715592874343, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.089495528483884, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.966096061160046, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021125", "date": "20260324", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021052", "date": "20260314", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020840", "date": "20260128", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021295", "date": "20250415", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.55 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Boone Jenner", "Justin Sourdif", "Ryan Leonard" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 186, "fitPct": 0.8023853095811404, "index": 100.80238530958114, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.741935483870968, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.096774193548388, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 39.623655913978496, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 68 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.946236559139786, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.080645161290322, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.510752688172042, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8023853095811404, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.696890162664545, "attemptProjection": 2.087014824510354, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 7574.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.623333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.8, "onNet": 0.60716419337109, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 22.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04083693331347138, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.09195249358745, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.39195249358745, "baseline": 1.9701492537313432, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476432", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.223231197645007, "adjustedSOG": 2.092376577239333, "reductionPct": 5.885785542425093, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.09195249358745, "afterPlayerForm": 1.99195716439397, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9826660402814622, "afterRecentZones": 2.07640254154967, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9679284389602953, "adjusted": 1.8738614595779932, "playerFactor": 0.9522, "defenseFactor": 0.9477586352266659, "oldChartFactor": 1.0240715592874343, "newChartFactor": 1.010784122192301, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6935897435897436, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7529604082771819, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.21666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.092376577239333, "adjustedSOG": 2.092376577239333, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 34, "beforeSOG": 2.092376577239333, "adjustedSOG": 2.092376577239333 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 226.0, "goalExpected": 0.27578192386253314, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28555809042707736, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24102157220093678, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7383748344793883 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856114097024626, "modelSOG": 2.092376577239333, "historyGames": 103, "seasonGames": { "2024": 26, "2025": 67, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 227.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10572687224669604, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11270982904288877, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.803333333333335, "btb": { "id": "8476432", "name": "Boone Jenner", "score": 55.803333333333335, "components": { "Goal model": 74.28571428571429, "SOG model": 79.28571428571429, "Unit attack": 83.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 75.71428571428571, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.51428571428571, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.205910260865383, "unitPlayers": [ "Boone Jenner", "Justin Sourdif", "Ryan Leonard" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 47 } }, { "id": "8476454", "name": "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 20.755555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 15.93888888888889, "ppShare": 0.8142076502732241, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 72.0, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 4.138888888888888, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.539, "currentIXG": 0.513, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.545454545454545, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13231010485554023, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 307.0, "goalExpected": 0.4332513037675406, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.42611562104754847, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3516024734123483, "goalProbability": 0.346959167509636, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.464330590271228, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 3.274514098833012, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.2547926106657372, "Current_PP_SOG60": 33.8255033557047, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.93888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.8142076502732241, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 4.030122260859966, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 1.0024035877344022, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 745.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 915.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0631045012585125, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1981420389453115, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0973692822295618, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0987404762001385 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Colton Dach", "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "Kasperi Kapanen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": null, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 129, "fitPct": 6.604734631510382, "index": 106.60473463151038, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.511627906976744, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.511627906976744, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.02325581395349, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.511627906976744, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 36.51162790697674, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9302325581395351, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 3.2456427409853887, "index": 103.24564274098539, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.254545454545456, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 56.581818181818186, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.96363636363636, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.604734631510382, "zonePPFit": 3.2456427409853887, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.546355100480086, "attemptProjection": 3.543531379304284, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 2869.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.93888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.4792510378717275, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 745.0, "expectedMinutes": 4.030122260859966, "projectedAttempts": 3.5703096539162114, "onNet": 0.5414721052858436, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6202426776487077, "ppAdjusted": 2.258033895576811, "other": 0.6666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.544943239892185, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72.0, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476454", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.544943239892185, "adjustedSOG": 3.52098290197098, "reductionPct": 0.67590187768235, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6202426776487077, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6202426776487077, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5982863964254539, "afterRecentZones": 0.6202426776487077, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5982863964254539, "adjusted": 0.5982863964254539, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9646004991038535, "oldChartFactor": 1.1981420389453115, "newChartFactor": 1.1981420389453115, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 47.81666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8317397001751148, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 2.258033895576811, "afterPlayerForm": 2.258033895576811, "afterRecentDefense": 2.258033895576811, "afterRecentZones": 2.25602983887886, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.25602983887886, "adjusted": 2.25602983887886, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0973692822295618, "newChartFactor": 1.09560736121139, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.416666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.52098290197098, "adjustedSOG": 3.52098290197098, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 4, "beforeSOG": 3.52098290197098, "adjustedSOG": 3.274514098833012 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 302.0, "goalExpected": 0.3176808109536653, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3177539626642548, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2721649316766308, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.005324043293680747 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850212676204872, "modelSOG": 3.274514098833012, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 72, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 41.0, "historyShots": 307.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13355048859934854, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13231010485554023, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.03800987430263, "btb": { "id": "8476454", "name": "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "score": 60.03800987430263, "components": { "Goal model": 97.85714285714286, "SOG model": 97.85714285714286, "Unit attack": 6.666666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 66.66666666666667, "Shot quality": 88.57142857142857, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 42.917647058823526, "Goalie H2H": 49.910554561717355 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7803001179944162, "unitPlayers": [ "Colton Dach", "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "Kasperi Kapanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 34 } }, { "id": "8476455", "name": "Gabriel Landeskog", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 2.2, "currentTOI": 15.459722222222224, "currentFiveTOI": 12.972222222222221, "ppShare": 0.3380132450331126, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7722222222222221, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.644, "currentIXG": 0.22033333333333335, "priorTOI": 16.413611111111113, "priorPPTOI": 2.3105555555555553, "deploymentChange": -0.9538888888888888, "ppTOIChange": -0.5383333333333331, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.166666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12490831459594683, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.18717037146736132, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19374286188038045, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1706975651238432, "goalProbability": 0.17613027465424017, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5432709530396956, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.4984620685405905, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.010706638115631, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.6426332288401255, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.972222222222221, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3380132450331126, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5499315673289182, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.009251487172001, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1276.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.071246185464284, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.223130560230825, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.380833333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4217949657869012, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9550419788751467, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8848132149464256, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0205109539750263, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9986705956808131, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.414160111059695, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.388642413487134, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.166666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nicolas Roy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": -3.839559501785814, "index": 96.16044049821419, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.820399113082042, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.65631929046563, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.88691796008869, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.031042128603104, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.654101995565411, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.951219512195122, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": 0.6836984658342118, "index": 100.68369846583421, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.960022095323765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.03225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.1590643804079832, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 51.935483870967744, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.192601018350743, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.87096774193548, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.939172125610597, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.161290322580645, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.674751114086661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.23947798786446, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.839559501785814, "zonePPFit": 0.6836984658342118, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0664011466507815, "attemptProjection": 1.0245979442610147, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 9340.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.972222222222221, "projectedAttempts": 2.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.4992327119030498, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1276.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.5499315673289182, "projectedAttempts": 0.1457615894039735, "onNet": 0.5649800950301785, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.933956643717893, "ppAdjusted": 0.11154290173800505, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0454995454558982, "baseline": 2.2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476455", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.507299727273539, "adjustedSOG": 1.4984620685405905, "reductionPct": 0.5863239124267783, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.933956643717893, "afterPlayerForm": 0.933956643717893, "afterRecentDefense": 0.933956643717893, "afterRecentZones": 0.933956643717893, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.933956643717893, "adjusted": 0.933956643717893, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8848132149464256, "newChartFactor": 0.8824292857477927, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.416666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1329222682704942, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0636926250644663, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.11154290173800505, "afterPlayerForm": 0.10142621995246505, "afterRecentDefense": 0.10647005708967415, "afterRecentZones": 0.11154290173800505, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.10647005708967415, "adjusted": 0.09681347051642464, "playerFactor": 0.9093023255813953, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1.0205109539750263, "newChartFactor": 1.0205109539750263, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4984620685405905, "adjustedSOG": 1.4984620685405905, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 67, "beforeSOG": 1.4984620685405905, "adjustedSOG": 1.4984620685405905 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.2038944154196194, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2038944154196194, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18445152401483986, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852353705198863, "modelSOG": 1.4984620685405905, "historyGames": 72, "seasonGames": { "2025": 60, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12244897959183673, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12490831459594683, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 60.284305036049226, "btb": { "id": "8476455", "name": "Gabriel Landeskog", "score": 60.284305036049226, "components": { "Goal model": 62.142857142857146, "SOG model": 52.857142857142854, "Unit attack": 73.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 69.28571428571429, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 57.84615384615385, "Goalie H2H": 52.85412262156448 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8451642466300844, "unitPlayers": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nicolas Roy" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 32 } }, { "id": "8476457", "name": "Adam Larsson", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.2926829268292683, "currentTOI": 21.755555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 18.643055555555556, "ppShare": 0.019572953736654804, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09166666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.298, "currentIXG": 0.024833333333333332, "priorTOI": 21.373170731707315, "priorPPTOI": 0.058943089430894303, "deploymentChange": 0.38238482384824124, "ppTOIChange": 0.03272357723577237, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 27.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.059940605118270096, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 230.0, "goalExpected": 0.07098781582479728, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0699714506869753, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0685267587083796, "goalProbability": 0.06757956051104139, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09471981973382115, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.1843026223163697, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2183565521865454, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.643055555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.019572953736654804, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10283956109134045, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0193427190652695, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 66.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.057673422015892, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.213008130081302, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014159188336734789, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1466049382716048, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.507528786536758, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 27.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Vince Dunn", "Adam Larsson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 142, "fitPct": 12.175577406549081, "index": 112.17557740654908, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 72.37954040029652, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 100 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.971830985915493, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.1267605633802817, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.284655300222387, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.955522609340253, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.28169014084507044, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 12.175577406549081, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 1.074098171948875, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 13423.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.643055555555556, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.39827359421243014, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 66.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.10283956109134045, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1120490859744374, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1120490859744374, "baseline": 1.2926829268292683, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476457", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1843026223163697, "adjustedSOG": 1.1843026223163697, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1120490859744374, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1120490859744374, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1120490859744374, "afterRecentZones": 1.1120490859744374, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1120490859744374, "adjusted": 1.1120490859744374, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 94.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.262153267512929, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.231012787098876, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1843026223163697, "adjustedSOG": 1.1843026223163697, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 93, "beforeSOG": 1.1843026223163697, "adjustedSOG": 1.1843026223163697 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 229.0, "goalExpected": 0.0676754336757517, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06426014729886075, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06543624772062259, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3197259522156659 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05780399689029131, "modelSOG": 1.1843026223163697, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 230.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06086956521739131, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.059940605118270096, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 29.284835044098166, "btb": { "id": "8476457", "name": "Adam Larsson", "score": 29.284835044098166, "components": { "Goal model": 20.0, "SOG model": 34.285714285714285, "Unit attack": 8.695652173913043, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 1.4285714285714286, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 51.6, "Goalie H2H": 48.74945151382185 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9711013798234664, "unitPlayers": [ "Vince Dunn", "Adam Larsson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 131 } }, { "id": "8476458", "name": "Ryan Strome", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.3636363636363638, "priorSOG": 1.0961538461538463, "currentTOI": 14.009090909090908, "currentFiveTOI": 12.166666666666668, "ppShare": 0.2935973041280539, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0560606060606061, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.45, "currentIXG": 0.22272727272727275, "priorTOI": 13.29326923076923, "priorPPTOI": 1.2458333333333333, "deploymentChange": 0.715821678321678, "ppTOIChange": -0.1897727272727272, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020829", "date": "20260126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 4.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021232", "date": "20250407", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020981", "date": "20250304", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020618", "date": "20250103", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020578", "date": "20241229", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.166666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10268386388583975, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 220.0, "goalExpected": 0.16597850086089078, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17585754190368044, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15293555485002028, "goalProbability": 0.16126254023149003, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8326985381469754, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.6164029534905284, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.207970112079702, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.164992826398852, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.166666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2935973041280539, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.034077878617685, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 0.9926130288982566, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 697.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.2470918241069215, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 1.852328273732956, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.654807692307692, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3308057639376113, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9685942799715255, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.97504138941732, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9444195125251048, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.372881355932204, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.144796380090497, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020829", "date": "20260126", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 4.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021232", "date": "20250407", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020981", "date": "20250304", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020618", "date": "20250103", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020578", "date": "20241229", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matvei Gridin", "Martin Pospisil", "Ryan Strome" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 30, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -0.8319536860893351, "index": 99.16804631391066, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.705882352941178, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.588235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.05882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.8235294117647065, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.411764705882355, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.411764705882352, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": 14.382574193772484, "index": 114.38257419377248, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.565263623029622, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5309649899459572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.382574193772484, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.999220132336035, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5973104262934754, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.24012500494106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.8319536860893351, "zonePPFit": 14.382574193772484, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2487772421573986, "attemptProjection": 1.8995750440866743, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 25.0, "seconds": 8030.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.166666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 3.181818181818182, "onNet": 0.5894380400791962, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 697.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.034077878617685, "projectedAttempts": 0.08901674708330144, "onNet": 0.5195171860025384, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9975583990363708, "ppAdjusted": 0.07661774408566574, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0741761431220365, "baseline": 1.0961538461538463, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476458", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020829", "date": "20260126", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6829672243347602, "adjustedSOG": 1.6493907688678862, "reductionPct": 1.9950748286346465, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.9975583990363708, "afterPlayerForm": 1.9509276477928048, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9975583990363708, "afterRecentZones": 1.9975583990363708, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9975583990363708, "adjusted": 1.9509276477928048, "playerFactor": 0.9766561261657928, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.97504138941732, "newChartFactor": 0.97504138941732, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8430105790196236, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.062665747875295, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.07661774408566574, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06907032451901807, "afterRecentDefense": 0.07464036964554455, "afterRecentZones": 0.07661774408566574, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.07464036964554455, "adjusted": 0.06728773621777448, "playerFactor": 0.9014925373134328, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6493907688678862, "adjustedSOG": 1.6164029534905284, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 57, "beforeSOG": 1.6164029534905284, "adjustedSOG": 1.6164029534905284 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 215.0, "goalExpected": 0.16795412363022538, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16795412363022538, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15460738266063398, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12858836443468716, "modelSOG": 1.6164029534905284, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 52, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 220.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10268386388583975, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.35313852813853, "btb": { "id": "8476458", "name": "Ryan Strome", "score": 54.35313852813853, "components": { "Goal model": 53.57142857142857, "SOG model": 60.0, "Unit attack": 46.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 16.666666666666668, "Shot quality": 70.71428571428571, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 54.666666666666664, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4005205244313776, "unitPlayers": [ "Matvei Gridin", "Martin Pospisil", "Ryan Strome" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 50 } }, { "id": "8476461", "name": "Sean Couturier", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": 1.5256410256410255, "currentTOI": 16.770238095238096, "currentFiveTOI": 13.035714285714286, "ppShare": 0.03926764635027704, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.19404761904761905, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.687, "currentIXG": 0.12050000000000001, "priorTOI": 16.651495726495725, "priorPPTOI": 0.8188034188034188, "deploymentChange": 0.11874236874237099, "ppTOIChange": -0.6247557997557998, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 22.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10220665353128777, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.12690919587221375, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12690919587221375, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11918634951878485, "goalProbability": 0.11918634951878485, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.241692115801091, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.602739726027397, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.035714285714286, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03926764635027704, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.20523889825744798, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9734807759894489, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 163.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4151.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.038861810038203, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.21294363256785, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.976068376068376, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1922954529209541, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9090689562650927, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0363727514226033, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9421342954373283, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.5743329097839895, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 22.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.716666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Michael Bunting", "Sean Couturier", "Noel Acciari" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 141, "fitPct": 1.212425047420112, "index": 101.21242504742011, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.673758865248226, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.24113475177305, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.468085106382986, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.79432624113475, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.687943262411345, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1347517730496455, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.212425047420112, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0849914382944712, "attemptProjection": 1.1847402196942118, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 10950.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.035714285714286, "projectedAttempts": 1.9285714285714288, "onNet": 0.5111533387395456, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 163.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.20523889825744798, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9920086861371986, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1348658289943416, "baseline": 1.5256410256410255, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476461", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2911759076530154, "adjustedSOG": 1.267032771225603, "reductionPct": 1.8698564838696141, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9920086861371986, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9920086861371986, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9517701254248451, "afterRecentZones": 0.9920086861371986, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9517701254248451, "adjusted": 0.9517701254248451, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9594372899404346, "oldChartFactor": 1.0363727514226033, "newChartFactor": 1.0363727514226033, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2169709093940153, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8085007776538419, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.267032771225603, "adjustedSOG": 1.241692115801091, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 87, "beforeSOG": 1.241692115801091, "adjustedSOG": 1.241692115801091 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 27.0, "goalHistoryShots": 289.0, "goalExpected": 0.1308959664057205, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12944349592514498, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.122690960743697, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12751913465697123 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12860594877202233, "modelSOG": 1.241692115801091, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 78, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 27.0, "historyShots": 290.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09310344827586207, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10220665353128777, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 37.28666666666667, "btb": { "id": "8476461", "name": "Sean Couturier", "score": 37.28666666666667, "components": { "Goal model": 37.857142857142854, "SOG model": 38.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 35.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 61.91111111111111, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.3639372429327952, "unitPlayers": [ "Michael Bunting", "Sean Couturier", "Noel Acciari" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 105 } }, { "id": "8476462", "name": "Dougie Hamilton", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.5833333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.6363636363636362, "currentTOI": 20.918055555555558, "currentFiveTOI": 17.02777777777778, "ppShare": 0.30079230333899265, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 31.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4763888888888888, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.58 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.57, "currentIXG": 0.13083333333333333, "priorTOI": 21.54004329004329, "priorPPTOI": 1.9870129870129871, "deploymentChange": -0.6219877344877318, "ppTOIChange": -0.5106240981240984, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.133333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05343701861247332, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 420.0, "goalExpected": 0.1263307743230301, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12859608646838808, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11867672054655054, "goalProbability": 0.12067093326553852, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.19942127189879755, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.3641059625572347, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.221859706362153, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.3866415804327374, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.02777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.30079230333899265, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4279279066842734, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9969135802469136, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1063.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.809326254996658, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.764705882352942, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.165151515151514, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5123153460347285, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0101010101010102, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0495404788805485, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8961744997233689, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.06014189785914, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9075118658099904, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.151193633952255, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 4.013377926421405, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 25.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jonas Siegenthaler", "Dougie Hamilton" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 39, "priorAttempts": 231, "fitPct": 1.6513492960182816, "index": 101.65134929601828, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.04828504828505, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 118 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.6163836163836165, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.808524808524808, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.7895437895437896, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.659340659340657, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.077922077922078, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": -3.4608500092210335, "index": 96.53914999077897, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 78.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.6513492960182816, "zonePPFit": -3.4608500092210335, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.713474736707606, "attemptProjection": 2.6195469638803925, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 60.0, "sog": 28.0, "seconds": 12260.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.02777777777778, "projectedAttempts": 5.0, "onNet": 0.435108068518131, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1063.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4279279066842734, "projectedAttempts": 0.48358800226372384, "onNet": 0.3874223602484472, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.373139191265761, "ppAdjusted": 0.12670499236157173, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6665108502939994, "baseline": 2.6363636363636362, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476462", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.6544519647218543, "adjustedSOG": 2.5939279817393404, "reductionPct": 2.2800933596421658, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.373139191265761, "afterPlayerForm": 2.2779515165028306, "afterRecentDefense": 2.373139191265761, "afterRecentZones": 2.3672159783370743, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.3672159783370743, "adjusted": 2.2722658862949054, "playerFactor": 0.9598895525752282, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0495404788805485, "newChartFactor": 1.0445142096239197, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.88333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7750173841582907, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3247605265715614, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.12670499236157173, "afterPlayerForm": 0.12670499236157173, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12670499236157173, "afterRecentZones": 0.12670499236157173, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.12670499236157173, "adjusted": 0.12670499236157173, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8961744997233689, "newChartFactor": 0.8961744997233689, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3733850129198966, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.5939279817393404, "adjustedSOG": 2.5420494221045535, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 13, "beforeSOG": 2.5420494221045535, "adjustedSOG": 2.3641059625572347 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 22.0, "goalHistoryShots": 417.0, "goalExpected": 0.1243132506916276, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12339982298254841, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11689683512663744, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08070194216101972 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05787249678486129, "modelSOG": 2.3641059625572347, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 77, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 22.0, "historyShots": 420.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05238095238095238, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05343701861247332, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.23638528138528, "btb": { "id": "8476462", "name": "Dougie Hamilton", "score": 48.23638528138528, "components": { "Goal model": 36.42857142857143, "SOG model": 91.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 33.333333333333336, "Shot quality": 40.0, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 53.86666666666667, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.4760531276360567, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Siegenthaler", "Dougie Hamilton" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 69 } }, { "id": "8476473", "name": "Connor Murphy", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.9166666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.875, "currentTOI": 21.26527777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 18.758333333333333, "ppShare": 0.012470997679814385, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.059722222222222225, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.166, "currentIXG": 0.013833333333333335, "priorTOI": 17.540416666666665, "priorPPTOI": 0.029791666666666668, "deploymentChange": 3.724861111111114, "ppTOIChange": 0.029930555555555557, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020745", "date": "20260115", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020312", "date": "20251118", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020229", "date": "20251107", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020529", "date": "20241221", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020055", "date": "20241015", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04825586179058969, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 165.0, "goalExpected": 0.0447386665509269, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04400181722803547, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04375265139981748, "goalProbability": 0.04304778152893342, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07048698708840631, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9271136166850371, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9320302087960908, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.758333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.012470997679814385, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.061728289273242865, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9968813884137818, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 43.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5095767863287075, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.531666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.007314924792142851, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0388007054673722, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1699646967896338, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.125565833497343, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020745", "date": "20260115", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020312", "date": "20251118", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020229", "date": "20251107", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020529", "date": "20241221", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020055", "date": "20241015", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ryan Shea", "Connor Murphy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 102, "fitPct": 5.665489892987793, "index": 105.6654898929878, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 72.05882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 69 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.7450980392156867, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.784313725490196, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1764705882352944, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5686274509803921, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.665489892987793, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0541666666666665, "attemptProjection": 0.8695453889501238, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 23.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 13506.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.758333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.9166666666666667, "onNet": 0.4227655826985536, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 43.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.061728289273242865, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9618560278083952, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9618560278083952, "baseline": 0.875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476473", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020745", "date": "20260115", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9271136166850371, "adjustedSOG": 0.9271136166850371, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9618560278083952, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9618560278083952, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9618560278083952, "afterRecentZones": 0.9618560278083952, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9618560278083952, "adjusted": 0.9618560278083952, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1699646967896338, "newChartFactor": 1.1699646967896338, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 94.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5510232205608765, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.157696537898326, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.5666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9271136166850371, "adjustedSOG": 0.9271136166850371, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 118, "beforeSOG": 0.9271136166850371, "adjustedSOG": 0.9271136166850371 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 163.0, "goalExpected": 0.03798507017088187, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.037993816915299704, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.037272685861808354, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0008420692933962248 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057878033745062674, "modelSOG": 0.9271136166850371, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 80, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 165.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04242424242424243, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04825586179058969, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 22.52218520609825, "btb": { "id": "8476473", "name": "Connor Murphy", "score": 22.52218520609825, "components": { "Goal model": 10.0, "SOG model": 16.428571428571427, "Unit attack": 4.3478260869565215, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 0.7142857142857143, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 41.6, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.6183747711699874, "unitPlayers": [ "Ryan Shea", "Connor Murphy" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 142 } }, { "id": "8476474", "name": "Stefan Noesen", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.368421052631579, "currentTOI": 9.5, "currentFiveTOI": 9.083333333333332, "ppShare": 0.04775124930594114, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 38, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.2866666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.617, "currentIXG": 0.1234, "priorTOI": 11.75438596491228, "priorPPTOI": 1.5157894736842106, "deploymentChange": -2.254385964912281, "ppTOIChange": -1.229122807017544, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12029073108429604, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.1539611292180086, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15672189766733965, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14269465550705582, "goalProbability": 0.14505821293496557, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.23635574279097515, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.2799085002660546, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.926605504587156, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.083333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.04775124930594114, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.22668579184403723, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 1.0008793601607973, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 86.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1801.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.0700181923059855, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.583333333333334, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.884649122807017, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3908188893590003, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0266320505841462, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0318451095841994, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0593252607376498, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.926605504587156, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 12.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 48, "fitPct": 1.0615036528066497, "index": 101.06150365280665, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.499999999999998, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 15.166666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.0615036528066497, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2711903128851796, "attemptProjection": 1.2576785566198398, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2725.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.083333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 2.4, "onNet": 0.5016489259150271, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 86.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.22668579184403723, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5099075297225891, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2644344347525096, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2644344347525096, "baseline": 1.368421052631579, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 38, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476474", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3060290819041374, "adjustedSOG": 1.3060290819041374, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2644344347525096, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2644344347525096, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2644344347525096, "afterRecentZones": 1.2644344347525096, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2644344347525096, "adjusted": 1.2644344347525096, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0318451095841994, "newChartFactor": 1.0318451095841994, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.416666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3866973823593225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.4333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3060290819041374, "adjustedSOG": 1.2799085002660546, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2799085002660546, "adjustedSOG": 1.2799085002660546 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.13688332714134466, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13587753714529657, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1279280326738428, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08775625083870253 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853906140227625, "modelSOG": 1.2799085002660546, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 38, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 223.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11659192825112108, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12029073108429604, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8476853", "name": "Morgan Rielly", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.2857142857142858, "priorSOG": 1.8076923076923077, "currentTOI": 19.698809523809526, "currentFiveTOI": 17.011904761904763, "ppShare": 0.2249336870026525, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0095238095238095, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.29 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.3699999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.09785714285714285, "priorTOI": 21.136752136752136, "priorPPTOI": 2.229059829059829, "deploymentChange": -1.43794261294261, "ppTOIChange": -1.2195360195360196, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 24.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.061762391092275014, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 285.0, "goalExpected": 0.09400831392923764, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09400831392923764, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08972480575424464, "goalProbability": 0.08972480575424464, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.5220964128280943, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.5269419174247725, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.011904761904763, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2249336870026525, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9316672982190223, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2857142857142857, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0064482949600444, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 848.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.583685312373746, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.007668711656441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.453205128205127, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5990656127217405, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1212121212121213, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.26767722610511, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 24.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Morgan Rielly", "Troy Stecher" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": 11.522100844586888, "index": 111.52210084458689, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.86206896551724, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 69 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.218390804597702, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.298850574712643, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.87356321839081, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.258620689655173, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.488505747126436, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 11.522100844586888, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4357142857142855, "attemptProjection": 1.3339838208760413, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 14290.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.011904761904763, "projectedAttempts": 2.2142857142857144, "onNet": 0.4180479942838816, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 848.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.9316672982190223, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0991347675808778, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2857142857142857 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3848490532951634, "baseline": 1.8076923076923077, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476853", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5539863550540212, "adjustedSOG": 1.5531596049266267, "reductionPct": 0.05320189104013329, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0991347675808778, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0991347675808778, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0977568507018867, "afterRecentZones": 1.0991347675808778, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0977568507018869, "adjusted": 1.0977568507018869, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9987463622117753, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2348925348443882, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9941323514003023, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5531596049266267, "adjustedSOG": 1.5220964128280943, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 65, "beforeSOG": 1.5220964128280943, "adjustedSOG": 1.5220964128280943 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 284.0, "goalExpected": 0.09480472871488486, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09371904951124267, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09044947377148473, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09880163283305238 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778520570525882, "modelSOG": 1.5220964128280943, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 78, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 285.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06315789473684211, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.061762391092275014, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.53403726708075, "btb": { "id": "8476853", "name": "Morgan Rielly", "score": 44.53403726708075, "components": { "Goal model": 25.0, "SOG model": 54.285714285714285, "Unit attack": 47.82608695652174, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 24.285714285714285, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 64.05714285714286, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4332504286816565, "unitPlayers": [ "Morgan Rielly", "Troy Stecher" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 78 } }, { "id": "8476880", "name": "Tom Wilson", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.2, "priorSOG": 2.125, "currentTOI": 18.696666666666665, "currentFiveTOI": 12.575, "ppShare": 0.518943343760862, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.4883333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.695, "currentIXG": 0.3695, "priorTOI": 19.46273148148148, "priorPPTOI": 2.6307870370370368, "deploymentChange": -0.7660648148148148, "ppTOIChange": -0.14245370370370347, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.95 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.85 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.071428571428571, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17530021120099448, "goalHistoryGoals": 65.0, "goalHistoryShots": 344.0, "goalExpected": 0.3692922592485963, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3692922592485963, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.308776635494274, "goalProbability": 0.308776635494274, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.106627577448699, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.157057654075547, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.2337575351640995, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.575, "Current_PP_Share": 0.518943343760862, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7713427925914895, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0000072876742885, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1493.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.833987240285217, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.720193576770788, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.569907407407406, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6011998579719926, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0626823276523873, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0644143871554375, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9851369504323892, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1311343585290297, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9963618722592189, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.644295302013423, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.2445793581960105, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.95 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Aliaksei Protas", "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "Tom Wilson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 140, "fitPct": 2.14714623851458, "index": 102.14714623851458, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.190476190476193, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.095238095238097, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 61, "fitPct": -0.4954349855870248, "index": 99.50456501441298, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360655, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.491803278688526, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 60.91803278688525, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.622950819672131, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6557377049180327, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.14714623851458, "zonePPFit": -0.4954349855870248, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.429606328704287, "attemptProjection": 2.035790027478991, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 7545.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.575, "projectedAttempts": 2.4, "onNet": 0.5419220730639416, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1493.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.7713427925914895, "projectedAttempts": 0.5568672724564279, "onNet": 0.5180977542932628, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5319192963003363, "ppAdjusted": 0.30077888179130285, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2326981780916393, "baseline": 2.125, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8476880", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1896189068549834, "adjustedSOG": 2.106627577448699, "reductionPct": 3.790217975669896, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5319192963003363, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5319192963003363, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3958773770604818, "afterRecentZones": 1.5294204208452054, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3936004139565288, "adjusted": 1.3936004139565288, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9111951134969037, "oldChartFactor": 1.0644143871554375, "newChartFactor": 1.0612790814733197, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.93333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2488413665254237, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.5800583885987179, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.30077888179130285, "afterPlayerForm": 0.30077888179130285, "afterRecentDefense": 0.30077888179130285, "afterRecentZones": 0.30077888179130285, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.30077888179130285, "adjusted": 0.30077888179130285, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9851369504323892, "newChartFactor": 0.9851369504323892, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1618677042801557, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.106627577448699, "adjustedSOG": 2.106627577448699, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 32, "beforeSOG": 2.106627577448699, "adjustedSOG": 2.106627577448699 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 65.0, "goalHistoryShots": 341.0, "goalExpected": 0.3936402962739998, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.40759441280561626, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.32540333246140474, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.9348027096176048 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12833293773241555, "modelSOG": 2.106627577448699, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 72, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 65.0, "historyShots": 344.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18895348837209303, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17530021120099448, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 69.46747899159664, "btb": { "id": "8476880", "name": "Tom Wilson", "score": 69.46747899159664, "components": { "Goal model": 94.28571428571429, "SOG model": 80.71428571428571, "Unit attack": 80.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 91.42857142857143, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 46.21176470588235, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1438031714204273, "unitPlayers": [ "Aliaksei Protas", "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "Tom Wilson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 6 } }, { "id": "8476905", "name": "Chandler Stephenson", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.1625, "currentTOI": 17.290277777777778, "currentFiveTOI": 13.143055555555556, "ppShare": 0.4555160142348754, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.159, "currentIXG": 0.09658333333333334, "priorTOI": 19.381666666666668, "priorPPTOI": 2.5172916666666665, "deploymentChange": -2.09138888888889, "ppTOIChange": -0.3839583333333332, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.483333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.428571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15636812474158523, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 174.0, "goalExpected": 0.13759893566485837, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13562886855423853, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12855187156794173, "goalProbability": 0.12683336804368642, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1718503524255316, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.8799679339523645, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9021451970833774, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.6875, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.143055555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4555160142348754, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.393357058125741, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0144563171058298, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1536.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8834601521826193, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.256724323429612, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.045625000000001, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6046986534123642, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1250111796798141, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1779554849095129, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0746199892335848, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0217329287748849, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7850502045370027, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.82995951417004, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jani Nyman", "Chandler Stephenson", "Mackie Samoskevich" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": 5.931849496983759, "index": 105.93184949698376, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.71428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.999999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.428571428571427, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": 2.4873329744528263, "index": 102.48733297445283, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.428571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.931849496983759, "zonePPFit": 2.4873329744528263, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7535446653595981, "attemptProjection": 0.6519121117789137, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 9463.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.143055555555556, "projectedAttempts": 0.75, "onNet": 0.5145560522533054, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1536.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.393357058125741, "projectedAttempts": 0.28047153024911026, "onNet": 0.5288641211780464, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4477381255874174, "ppAdjusted": 0.17165692964850518, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7027283885692559, "baseline": 1.1625, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476905", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8866370331415536, "adjustedSOG": 0.8799679339523645, "reductionPct": 0.7521791826762492, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4477381255874174, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4477381255874174, "afterRecentDefense": 0.436622960272102, "afterRecentZones": 0.4477381255874173, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.436622960272102, "adjusted": 0.436622960272102, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9751748518160417, "oldChartFactor": 1.1779554849095129, "newChartFactor": 1.1779554849095129, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.38333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1236381987116693, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8818658854948088, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.17165692964850518, "afterPlayerForm": 0.17165692964850518, "afterRecentDefense": 0.17165692964850518, "afterRecentZones": 0.17165692964850518, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.17165692964850518, "adjusted": 0.17165692964850518, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0746199892335848, "newChartFactor": 1.0746199892335848, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.066666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4143646408839778, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8799679339523645, "adjustedSOG": 0.8799679339523645, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 122, "beforeSOG": 0.8799679339523645, "adjustedSOG": 0.8799679339523645 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 173.0, "goalExpected": 0.11976094180810275, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11371712515521595, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11286751234163674, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5377901256616815 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12844866179194353, "modelSOG": 0.8799679339523645, "historyGames": 170, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 80, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 174.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1724137931034483, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15636812474158523, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.92365800865801, "btb": { "id": "8476905", "name": "Chandler Stephenson", "score": 41.92365800865801, "components": { "Goal model": 42.857142857142854, "SOG model": 13.571428571428571, "Unit attack": 23.333333333333332, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50.0, "Shot quality": 25.714285714285715, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 52.17142857142857, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.211231664385414, "unitPlayers": [ "Jani Nyman", "Chandler Stephenson", "Mackie Samoskevich" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 92 } }, { "id": "8476925", "name": "Colton Sissons", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": 1.121212121212121, "currentTOI": 15.066666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.635714285714286, "ppShare": 0.009814323607427056, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04404761904761905, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.2730000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.09092857142857144, "priorTOI": 12.497222222222224, "priorPPTOI": 0.4777777777777778, "deploymentChange": 2.569444444444443, "ppTOIChange": -0.43373015873015874, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021306", "date": "20260415", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021259", "date": "20260409", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020037", "date": "20251011", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020993", "date": "20250306", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020304", "date": "20241120", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.033333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10317622867546063, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 170.0, "goalExpected": 0.11698192080800125, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11698192080800125, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1103987237096977, "goalProbability": 0.1103987237096977, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.1338069079454942, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.156537753222836, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.635714285714286, "Current_PP_Share": 0.009814323607427056, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.04065057787040546, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 0.989856514368911, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 37.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.8525222623929345, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.8054968287526427, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.407323232323233, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10463032202162635, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0437592994609362, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.108790384976695, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.616954882329996, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.6666666666666666 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021306", "date": "20260415", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021259", "date": "20260409", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020037", "date": "20251011", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020993", "date": "20250306", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020304", "date": "20241120", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020053", "date": "20241015", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.583333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bo Groulx", "Colton Sissons", "Vinni Lettieri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": 3.626346165889828, "index": 103.62634616588983, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.164835164835165, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.967032967032967, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.72527472527472, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.164835164835165, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.901098901098898, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.626346165889828, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.292857142857143, "attemptProjection": 1.1753964072420944, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 9774.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.635714285714286, "projectedAttempts": 1.7142857142857142, "onNet": 0.5318757713911488, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 37.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.04065057787040546, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0912696321924757, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2341267750496185, "baseline": 1.121212121212121, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476925", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1889609135146197, "adjustedSOG": 1.1569458244341777, "reductionPct": 2.6926948326504774, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0912696321924757, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0485278457783769, "afterRecentDefense": 1.080220161912481, "afterRecentZones": 1.0912696321924757, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.080220161912481, "adjusted": 1.0379111503917395, "playerFactor": 0.9608329736728528, "defenseFactor": 0.98987466529441, "oldChartFactor": 1.108790384976695, "newChartFactor": 1.108790384976695, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7291853178155775, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9526083956907074, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.35, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1569458244341777, "adjustedSOG": 1.1338069079454942, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 98, "beforeSOG": 1.1338069079454942, "adjustedSOG": 1.1338069079454942 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 169.0, "goalExpected": 0.11569640363346106, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11437147837853208, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10925439061820176, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11809535184012926 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285758174237437, "modelSOG": 1.1338069079454942, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 66, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 170.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08823529411764706, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10317622867546063, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 31.170357142857142, "btb": { "id": "8476925", "name": "Colton Sissons", "score": 31.170357142857142, "components": { "Goal model": 34.285714285714285, "SOG model": 30.714285714285715, "Unit attack": 10.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 20.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 31.85, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9251789771251537, "unitPlayers": [ "Bo Groulx", "Colton Sissons", "Vinni Lettieri" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 124 } }, { "id": "8476927", "name": "Teddy Blueger", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": 1.457142857142857, "currentTOI": 12.939285714285715, "currentFiveTOI": 9.801190476190476, "ppShare": 0.003978779840848806, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 35, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.017857142857142856, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.141, "currentIXG": 0.0815, "priorTOI": 16.51190476190476, "priorPPTOI": 0.11523809523809524, "deploymentChange": -3.5726190476190443, "ppTOIChange": -0.09738095238095237, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021055", "date": "20260314", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020946", "date": "20260228", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021196", "date": "20250402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020960", "date": "20250301", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020613", "date": "20250102", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11821430260054437, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 161.0, "goalExpected": 0.14654014254501319, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14654014254501319, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13630893911842215, "goalProbability": 0.13630893911842215, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.239614321798134, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.372646665856918, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.801190476190476, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003978779840848806, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.016479964001515725, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.42857142857142855, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 0.989856514368911, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.825898991253058, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.87603305785124, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.209047619047618, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030541776391225316, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0437592994609362, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1673078613940207, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.733727810650888, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021055", "date": "20260314", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020946", "date": "20260228", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.25 }, { "gameId": "2024021196", "date": "20250402", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020960", "date": "20250301", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020613", "date": "20250102", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020567", "date": "20241228", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brandon Duhaime", "Teddy Blueger", "Zack MacEwen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 66, "fitPct": 5.5769287131340235, "index": 105.57692871313402, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.056277056277057, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.233766233766232, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.41125541125541, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.952380952380953, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.316017316017316, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.0303030303030303, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.5769287131340235, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.25, "attemptProjection": 1.1219314201132473, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 8233.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.801190476190476, "projectedAttempts": 1.1428571428571428, "onNet": 0.5357395012567426, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.016479964001515725, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.757394281485195, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.42857142857142855 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1859657100566237, "baseline": 1.457142857142857, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 35, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476927", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021055", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.294436568891117, "adjustedSOG": 1.264912573263402, "reductionPct": 2.280837573447647, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.757394281485195, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7181101964204407, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7497254108810576, "afterRecentZones": 0.7545691598858217, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.746928894583462, "adjusted": 0.7081876221056698, "playerFactor": 0.9481325829557082, "defenseFactor": 0.98987466529441, "oldChartFactor": 1.1673078613940207, "newChartFactor": 1.1592784678057084, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.016666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6350663375501389, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9526083956907074, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.264912573263402, "adjustedSOG": 1.239614321798134, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 89, "beforeSOG": 1.239614321798134, "adjustedSOG": 1.239614321798134 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.13652546532210816, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1349620110463879, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12761589556546477, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13649994372026408 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853932978742078, "modelSOG": 1.239614321798134, "historyGames": 131, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 35, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 161.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11180124223602485, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11821430260054437, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 36.69559523809524, "btb": { "id": "8476927", "name": "Teddy Blueger", "score": 36.69559523809524, "components": { "Goal model": 47.857142857142854, "SOG model": 37.142857142857146, "Unit attack": 36.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 16.428571428571427, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 33.05, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3113880622718943, "unitPlayers": [ "Brandon Duhaime", "Teddy Blueger", "Zack MacEwen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 107 } }, { "id": "8476931", "name": "Jake McCabe", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": 0.9625, "currentTOI": 19.067857142857143, "currentFiveTOI": 14.958333333333332, "ppShare": 0.014588859416445624, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06547619047619048, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.567, "currentIXG": 0.040499999999999994, "priorTOI": 22.404791666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.2841666666666667, "deploymentChange": -3.336934523809525, "ppTOIChange": -0.2186904761904762, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.047895384553813515, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 167.0, "goalExpected": 0.050037438195782484, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.050037438195782484, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.048806187146092445, "goalProbability": 0.048806187146092445, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.044723592093978, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.011142061281337, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.958333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014588859416445624, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06042653467222433, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0064482949600444, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 55.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.7545853493867445, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.557184750733137, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.514583333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07637052898376559, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1212121212121213, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.6203597795570346, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake McCabe", "Darren Raddysh" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 109, "fitPct": 10.261323102659816, "index": 110.26132310265982, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 68.8532110091743, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.70183486238532, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.669724770642202, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.270642201834862, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.302752293577982, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.2018348623853217, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.261323102659816, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2928571428571425, "attemptProjection": 0.9797820136717699, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 12565.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.958333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 1.5714285714285712, "onNet": 0.4703039935693668, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 55.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.06042653467222433, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9934624354073134, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1363195782644562, "baseline": 0.9625, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8476931", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0667917469586738, "adjustedSOG": 1.0660444817285488, "reductionPct": 0.07004790131301952, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9934624354073134, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9934624354073134, "afterRecentDefense": 0.992216993357105, "afterRecentZones": 0.9934624354073134, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.992216993357105, "adjusted": 0.992216993357105, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9987463622117753, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 68.71666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.108195709214385, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9941323514003023, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.23333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0660444817285488, "adjustedSOG": 1.044723592093978, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 108, "beforeSOG": 1.044723592093978, "adjustedSOG": 1.044723592093978 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 167.0, "goalExpected": 0.052031660690639206, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05143580758596253, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.050701189088880105, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.056581119718601 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578806767586821, "modelSOG": 1.044723592093978, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 80, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 167.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.041916167664670656, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.047895384553813515, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 30.50304347826087, "btb": { "id": "8476931", "name": "Jake McCabe", "score": 30.50304347826087, "components": { "Goal model": 12.857142857142858, "SOG model": 23.571428571428573, "Unit attack": 39.130434782608695, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 3.5714285714285716, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.885714285714286, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3822171445237577, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake McCabe", "Darren Raddysh" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 125 } }, { "id": "8476967", "name": "Brett Kulak", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 1.144578313253012, "currentTOI": 18.866666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 16.880555555555556, "ppShare": 0.007417218543046358, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 83, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03888888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.473, "currentIXG": 0.03941666666666666, "priorTOI": 18.960843373493976, "priorPPTOI": 0.13493975903614458, "deploymentChange": -0.09417670682730872, "ppTOIChange": -0.09605087014725569, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020687", "date": "20260108", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020078", "date": "20251018", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021042", "date": "20250313", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020193", "date": "20241104", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04069413453283882, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 239.0, "goalExpected": 0.036974180524826185, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.038272529430817624, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03629898271767646, "goalProbability": 0.03754939097042218, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12504082527457216, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9085874647362077, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.665789040645055, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.880555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007417218543046358, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03401103752759382, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.0019232912258917, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 28.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8733934757676436, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.98333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024633431085043987, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9298540965207632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9322434194270045, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8668503625087242, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.6072786529060292, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020687", "date": "20260108", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020078", "date": "20251018", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021042", "date": "20250313", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020193", "date": "20241104", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": -2.2585526857665172, "index": 97.74144731423348, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 71.8560606060606, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 101 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.2121212121212122, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.1212121212121215, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.886363636363637, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.015151515151516, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.2585526857665172, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6501377718815431, "attemptProjection": 0.8523826929017997, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 12154.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.880555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 2.833333333333334, "onNet": 0.34359389924993344, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 28.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03401103752759382, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7512602323916714, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7512602323916714, "baseline": 1.144578313253012, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 83, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8476967", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020687", "date": "20260108", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020078", "date": "20251018", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9085874647362077, "adjustedSOG": 0.9085874647362077, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7512602323916714, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7512602323916714, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7512602323916714, "afterRecentZones": 0.7512602323916714, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7512602323916714, "adjusted": 0.7512602323916714, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9322434194270045, "newChartFactor": 0.9322434194270045, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.26666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2288904866759538, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0391569742827893, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9085874647362077, "adjustedSOG": 0.9085874647362077, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 121, "beforeSOG": 0.9085874647362077, "adjustedSOG": 0.9085874647362077 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 238.0, "goalExpected": 0.04123995319351803, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04123995319351803, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04040115648707601, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05795311606632361, "modelSOG": 0.9085874647362077, "historyGames": 177, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 83, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 239.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03347280334728033, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04069413453283882, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 32.84626327554032, "btb": { "id": "8476967", "name": "Brett Kulak", "score": 32.84626327554032, "components": { "Goal model": 6.428571428571429, "SOG model": 14.285714285714286, "Unit attack": 65.21739130434783, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 7.142857142857143, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 45.86666666666667, "Goalie H2H": 47.41602067183462 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.747363565888696, "unitPlayers": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 116 } }, { "id": "8477015", "name": "Connor Brown", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.5466666666666666, "currentTOI": 13.7125, "currentFiveTOI": 11.8, "ppShare": 0.01818181818181818, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07083333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.49, "currentIXG": 0.1225, "priorTOI": 17.55088888888889, "priorPPTOI": 1.4257777777777778, "deploymentChange": -3.838388888888888, "ppTOIChange": -1.3549444444444445, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020874", "date": "20250207", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020718", "date": "20250116", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1278477331677799, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 243.0, "goalExpected": 0.153492321204671, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1562446831790782, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14229264966726357, "goalProbability": 0.14465012496255614, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2357475295292566, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.200586959201198, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.084745762711864, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.8, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01818181818181818, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0863131313131313, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 1.0008793601607973, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 17.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 935.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0266320505841462, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0330581554300138, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0665315977177992, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0605706124817906, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.080024125311486, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020874", "date": "20250207", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020718", "date": "20250116", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020385", "date": "20241130", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.75 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 138, "fitPct": 1.1019385143337956, "index": 101.1019385143338, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.086956521739133, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.405797101449277, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 58.913043478260875, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.478260869565218, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.376811594202899, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.739130434782609, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 34, "fitPct": 2.217719923926637, "index": 102.21771992392664, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 80.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.1019385143337956, "zonePPFit": 2.217719923926637, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0605706124817906, "attemptProjection": 0.9608362782252319, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 2832.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.8, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.5196827394059228, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 17.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0863131313131313, "projectedAttempts": 0.3046345811051693, "onNet": 0.49990934286528343, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9374387230976797, "ppAdjusted": 0.07326472225583151, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0107034453535113, "baseline": 1.5466666666666666, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477015", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2250887338787735, "adjustedSOG": 1.2250887338787735, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9374387230976797, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9374387230976797, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9374387230976797, "afterRecentZones": 0.9374387230976797, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9374387230976797, "adjusted": 0.9374387230976797, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0330581554300138, "newChartFactor": 1.0330581554300138, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 47.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3866973823593225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.07326472225583151, "afterPlayerForm": 0.07326472225583151, "afterRecentDefense": 0.07326472225583151, "afterRecentZones": 0.07326472225583151, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.07326472225583151, "adjusted": 0.07326472225583151, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0665315977177992, "newChartFactor": 1.0665315977177992, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.2833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2250887338787735, "adjustedSOG": 1.200586959201198, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 91, "beforeSOG": 1.200586959201198, "adjustedSOG": 1.200586959201198 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 242.0, "goalExpected": 0.14612925975998686, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1450555325890748, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13595399041376233, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09282479307425318 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128517724765485, "modelSOG": 1.200586959201198, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 75, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 243.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12757201646090535, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1278477331677799, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.12674242424242, "btb": { "id": "8477015", "name": "Connor Brown", "score": 41.12674242424242, "components": { "Goal model": 50.0, "SOG model": 35.714285714285715, "Unit attack": 43.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 52.142857142857146, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 58.849999999999994, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.380624334248085, "unitPlayers": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 96 } }, { "id": "8477380", "name": "Jonny Brodzinski", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.1454545454545455, "currentTOI": 9.383333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.383333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 55, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.086, "currentIXG": 0.043, "priorTOI": 11.171818181818182, "priorPPTOI": 0.6278787878787878, "deploymentChange": -1.788484848484849, "ppTOIChange": -0.6278787878787878, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021008", "date": "20260309", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020755", "date": "20260117", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 7.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021246", "date": "20250409", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12854818422476708, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 140.0, "goalExpected": 0.1879280557324276, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1879280557324276, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17132567654461078, "goalProbability": 0.17132567654461078, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.4619269565397714, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 12.788632326820604, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.383333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 0.9970876670412914, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 540.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.049749575172167, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.017927431044338, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0685688882948892, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 14.007782101167315, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021008", "date": "20260309", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020755", "date": "20260117", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 7.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021246", "date": "20250409", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020362", "date": "20241129", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 104, "fitPct": 0.5975810348112702, "index": 100.59758103481127, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.538461538461539, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.153846153846155, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 66.53846153846153, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.38461538461538464, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.5975810348112702, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.1371377765897783, "attemptProjection": 1.402748124036045, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1126.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.383333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.5337964924171821, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7699429503129118, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7699429503129118, "baseline": 1.1454545454545455, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 55, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477380", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021136", "date": "20260325", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020975", "date": "20260305", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5201475883695652, "adjustedSOG": 1.4619269565397714, "reductionPct": 3.829932848312334, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7699429503129118, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7699429503129118, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6755826453505933, "afterRecentZones": 1.7671182782072343, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6729085639299222, "adjusted": 1.6729085639299222, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9466873748977975, "oldChartFactor": 1.017927431044338, "newChartFactor": 1.0152366253774585, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.766666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7478946195976414, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4619269565397714, "adjustedSOG": 1.4619269565397714, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.4619269565397714, "adjustedSOG": 1.4619269565397714 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 18.0, "goalHistoryShots": 140.0, "goalExpected": 0.2320493917533048, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24027528804559506, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20709304072542462, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6495617650531138 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.128515642139441, "modelSOG": 1.4619269565397714, "historyGames": 108, "seasonGames": { "2024": 51, "2025": 55, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 18.0, "historyShots": 140.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12857142857142856, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12854818422476708, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477426", "name": "Nick Paul", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "currentTOI": 16.33095238095238, "currentFiveTOI": 13.05595238095238, "ppShare": 0.14588859416445624, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6547619047619048, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.596, "currentIXG": 0.25685714285714284, "priorTOI": 13.681045751633988, "priorPPTOI": 1.1388888888888888, "deploymentChange": 2.649906629318391, "ppTOIChange": -0.4841269841269841, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021139", "date": "20260326", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021076", "date": "20260317", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020909", "date": "20250223", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.75 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1357570131429956, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 223.0, "goalExpected": 0.16921909373738603, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16921909373738603, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15567610295825854, "goalProbability": 0.15567610295825854, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.246485097305022, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.939089997264521, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.05595238095238, "Current_PP_Share": 0.14588859416445624, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6042653467222433, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0110574188607588, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 550.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.8127018299246505, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.197991391678623, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.536601307189542, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22481677633338684, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0437592994609362, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.142900328330656, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.092034906063613, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.892827105610958, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021139", "date": "20260326", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021076", "date": "20260317", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020909", "date": "20250223", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020488", "date": "20241214", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Easton Cowan", "Nick Paul", "William Nylander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 93, "fitPct": 4.763344277688532, "index": 104.76334427768853, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.066997518610421, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 24.598842018196855, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.81224152191894, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.933829611248965, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.990074441687344, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.598014888337469, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": 3.067830202120433, "index": 103.06783020212043, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 43.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 56.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.763344277688532, "zonePPFit": 3.067830202120433, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1285714285714283, "attemptProjection": 1.3544833353227876, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 10967.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.05595238095238, "projectedAttempts": 2.0714285714285716, "onNet": 0.4676162798054656, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 550.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6042653467222433, "projectedAttempts": 0.19775956801818872, "onNet": 0.5165842441805525, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0413143543642436, "ppAdjusted": 0.05735588472572148, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.241527381947108, "baseline": 1.3333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 51, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477426", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021139", "date": "20260326", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025021076", "date": "20260317", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.278249762501598, "adjustedSOG": 1.271923568678594, "reductionPct": 0.4949106198637976, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0413143543642436, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0413143543642436, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0307706979925704, "afterRecentZones": 1.0413143543642436, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0307706979925702, "adjusted": 1.0307706979925702, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.98987466529441, "oldChartFactor": 1.142900328330656, "newChartFactor": 1.142900328330656, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0781822203652272, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9526083956907074, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.05735588472572148, "afterPlayerForm": 0.05735588472572148, "afterRecentDefense": 0.05735588472572148, "afterRecentZones": 0.05735588472572148, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.05735588472572148, "adjusted": 0.05735588472572148, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.092034906063613, "newChartFactor": 1.092034906063613, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 3.8194444444444438, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.271923568678594, "adjustedSOG": 1.246485097305022, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 85, "beforeSOG": 1.246485097305022, "adjustedSOG": 1.246485097305022 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 222.0, "goalExpected": 0.16363417019904986, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16176027405485402, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15094742619375962, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15925279942973491 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284951524518758, "modelSOG": 1.246485097305022, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 51, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 223.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13901345291479822, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1357570131429956, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 55.29333333333334, "btb": { "id": "8477426", "name": "Nick Paul", "score": 55.29333333333334, "components": { "Goal model": 55.0, "SOG model": 40.0, "Unit attack": 63.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 79.28571428571429, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.542857142857144, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5897019380783695, "unitPlayers": [ "Easton Cowan", "Nick Paul", "William Nylander" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 49 } }, { "id": "8477450", "name": "Jason Dickinson", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "currentTOI": 12.205555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 10.944444444444445, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Game-time decision", "projected": false, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 63, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Day-to-day or game-time decision in latest report; estimate conditional on dressing.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.094, "currentIXG": 0.03133333333333333, "priorTOI": 15.533068783068783, "priorPPTOI": 0.08439153439153439, "deploymentChange": -3.3275132275132275, "ppTOIChange": -0.08439153439153439, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020745", "date": "20260115", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020690", "date": "20250113", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020529", "date": "20241221", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.8 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.545454545454545, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.116756288639342, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 130.0, "goalExpected": 0.11470461790096036, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11281542390952498, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10837052360063103, "goalProbability": 0.10668447041192186, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16860531887091662, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9824277496116787, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.6548223350253806, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.944444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 1.0024035877344022, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 818.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.810690423162583, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.285266457680251, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.066137566137565, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.020721154478353376, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0631045012585125, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6548223350253806, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020745", "date": "20260115", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020690", "date": "20250113", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020529", "date": "20241221", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020055", "date": "20241015", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.4 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [ "Mathieu Joseph", "Jason Dickinson", "Isaac Howard" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 110, "fitPct": 8.54830281814624, "index": 108.54830281814624, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 29.454545454545457, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.2727272727272725, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.727272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 21.454545454545453, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.54830281814624, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7666666666666666, "attemptProjection": 1.0485403990454394, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1970.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.944444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.488550126481161, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.907603532856053, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.907603532856053, "baseline": 1.1428571428571428, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 63, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477450", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020745", "date": "20260115", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.001704976856489, "adjustedSOG": 0.9824277496116787, "reductionPct": 1.9244415960980144, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.907603532856053, "afterPlayerForm": 0.907603532856053, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8754748207813694, "afterRecentZones": 0.907603532856053, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8754748207813694, "adjusted": 0.8754748207813694, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9646004991038535, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 32.833333333333336, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8317397001751148, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9824277496116787, "adjustedSOG": 0.9824277496116787, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.9824277496116787, "adjustedSOG": 0.9824277496116787 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 130.0, "goalExpected": 0.10273513706501773, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10275879367490674, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09763405487459209, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0021346666645077894 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853946387048656, "modelSOG": 0.9824277496116787, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 59, "2025": 63, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 130.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1076923076923077, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.116756288639342, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477476", "name": "Artturi Lehkonen", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.8333333333333333, "priorSOG": 2.1857142857142855, "currentTOI": 18.955555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 14.822222222222223, "ppShare": 0.25059602649006624, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3138888888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.936, "currentIXG": 0.41133333333333333, "priorTOI": 18.481428571428573, "priorPPTOI": 2.1473809523809524, "deploymentChange": 0.4741269841269826, "ppTOIChange": -0.8334920634920635, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.85 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1674635405770689, "goalHistoryGoals": 58.0, "goalHistoryShots": 323.0, "goalExpected": 0.29359411546417385, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3039036772504719, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.25442095095634787, "goalProbability": 0.2620680573389101, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7647106382562219, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.7531823013682075, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.7346326836581705, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.221987315010571, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.822222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25059602649006624, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1490871964679912, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.009251487172001, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 946.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.161528976572133, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.1806186938685, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.482142857142858, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.39200722664432336, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9550419788751467, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8949288810106485, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9435424949877994, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8546946494729305, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9233493691070029, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.402323448486701, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 17.041420118343197, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 183, "fitPct": -3.5023706329783835, "index": 96.49762936702162, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.6229508196721314, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 37.40647330811265, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 45.95628415300547, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 73 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.55359394703657, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.149222362337117, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3114754098360657, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32, "fitPct": -1.8819168337400214, "index": 98.11808316625998, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.960022095323765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 43.75, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.1590643804079832, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.192601018350743, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.7500000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.939172125610597, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.674751114086661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.25, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.23947798786446, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.5023706329783835, "zonePPFit": -1.8819168337400214, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5633284966523706, "attemptProjection": 1.426622583230037, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 10672.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.822222222222223, "projectedAttempts": 2.5000000000000004, "onNet": 0.5242710763078973, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 946.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1490871964679912, "projectedAttempts": 0.36440397350993375, "onNet": 0.5705266353012597, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1792045822446493, "ppAdjusted": 0.2324376243632213, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.494975539941204, "baseline": 2.1857142857142855, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477476", "goals": 2, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 2, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7712710382504366, "adjustedSOG": 1.7531823013682075, "reductionPct": 1.0212291903161308, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1792045822446493, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1792045822446493, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1792045822446493, "afterRecentZones": 1.1775643069406363, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1775643069406363, "adjusted": 1.1775643069406363, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8949288810106485, "newChartFactor": 0.8925041888679393, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 71.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.318141114713602, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0636926250644663, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2324376243632213, "afterPlayerForm": 0.21364640083515568, "afterRecentDefense": 0.22186662486034606, "afterRecentZones": 0.2324376243632213, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.22186662486034603, "adjusted": 0.20393000486351937, "playerFactor": 0.9191558441558442, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 0.9435424949877994, "newChartFactor": 0.9435424949877994, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.533333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7531823013682075, "adjustedSOG": 1.7531823013682075, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 50, "beforeSOG": 1.7531823013682075, "adjustedSOG": 1.7531823013682075 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.28477159712231614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.28477159712231614, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24781396384388543, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283707766410013, "modelSOG": 1.7531823013682075, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 70, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 58.0, "historyShots": 323.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17956656346749225, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1674635405770689, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 70.65665834165834, "btb": { "id": "8477476", "name": "Artturi Lehkonen", "score": 70.65665834165834, "components": { "Goal model": 87.14285714285714, "SOG model": 65.0, "Unit attack": 90.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 93.57142857142857, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 62.93333333333334, "Goalie H2H": 51.92307692307692 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.363313741275979, "unitPlayers": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 5 } }, { "id": "8477488", "name": "Brett Pesce", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.2162162162162162, "currentTOI": 21.0125, "currentFiveTOI": 18.62638888888889, "ppShare": 0.02490096208262592, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.12222222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.361, "currentIXG": 0.030083333333333333, "priorTOI": 20.304954954954955, "priorPPTOI": 0.09504504504504505, "deploymentChange": 0.7075450450450447, "ppTOIChange": 0.027177177177177173, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.116666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.333333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04215304567658875, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 156.0, "goalExpected": 0.047141785629194216, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04798711298598385, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04604786870196769, "goalProbability": 0.04685392979487567, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08060610929079767, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.1183482681389294, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.221236298560883, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.62638888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02490096208262592, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1182104005533547, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9969135802469136, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 88.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.2687747035573125, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.094594594594593, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.024505645136390017, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0101010101010102, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.025521711549489, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0358805167166556, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.2435679247171887, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.116666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Luke Hughes", "Brett Pesce" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 65, "fitPct": 0.8507237183163028, "index": 100.8507237183163, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.58974358974359, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.4615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2307692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.17948717948718, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8507237183163028, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0358805167166558, "attemptProjection": 1.2327251713559244, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 13411.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.62638888888889, "projectedAttempts": 3.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.3540209726332712, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 88.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1182104005533547, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1343028440362901, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1343028440362901, "baseline": 1.2162162162162162, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 37, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477488", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1670681929082605, "adjustedSOG": 1.1411717021825811, "reductionPct": 2.218935524337007, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1343028440362901, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0955098321781556, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1343028440362901, "afterRecentZones": 1.1297803699854976, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1297803699854976, "adjusted": 1.0911420261601577, "playerFactor": 0.9658001281914326, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.025521711549489, "newChartFactor": 1.0165672129289196, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 96.01666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8147630619684082, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3247605265715614, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.0166666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1411717021825811, "adjustedSOG": 1.1183482681389294, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 102, "beforeSOG": 1.1183482681389294, "adjustedSOG": 1.1183482681389294 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 156.0, "goalExpected": 0.04504766400491813, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04471666321214301, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0440480837496482, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.031647321568696596 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0579117969320672, "modelSOG": 1.1183482681389294, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 37, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 156.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03205128205128205, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04215304567658875, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 29.021499153020894, "btb": { "id": "8477488", "name": "Brett Pesce", "score": 29.021499153020894, "components": { "Goal model": 11.428571428571429, "SOG model": 27.857142857142858, "Unit attack": 73.91304347826087, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 4.285714285714286, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 43.714285714285715, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.765991655347218, "unitPlayers": [ "Luke Hughes", "Brett Pesce" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 132 } }, { "id": "8477492", "name": "Nathan MacKinnon", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 4.166666666666667, "priorSOG": 4.4, "currentTOI": 20.90138888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 15.654166666666667, "ppShare": 0.7409271523178808, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 50.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.8847222222222224, "volumeNote": "Observed 4.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.325, "currentIXG": 0.44375000000000003, "priorTOI": 22.261875, "priorPPTOI": 4.04875, "deploymentChange": -1.3604861111111113, "ppTOIChange": -0.16402777777777766, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 21.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 21.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.766666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 5.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12755750171853764, "goalHistoryGoals": 92.0, "goalHistoryShots": 722.0, "goalExpected": 0.4614359367296331, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.47763926659750633, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.36962218735149216, "goalProbability": 0.37975409995510945, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.0131912603617288, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 3.6174739275453662, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 11.498536066010114, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.296746514122274, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.654166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7409271523178808, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.3974597130242823, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 0.9872883796894324, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2797.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.783691388236452, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.227539364001235, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.941458333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7391046554252199, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.879552162353343, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8669871504797075, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0609834749567388, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0382769482437864, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 11.787365177195685, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.515393842463014, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 6.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 5.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 21.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 21.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.766666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 49, "priorAttempts": 298, "fitPct": -4.433761650676416, "index": 95.56623834932358, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.060676619641143, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.684837693466644, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.552937953704973, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 66 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.760991644980137, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 75 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.239556225174633, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.7009998630324614, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 123, "fitPct": 2.032782498557964, "index": 102.03278249855796, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.821138211382115, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.960022095323765, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.91869918699187, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.1590643804079832, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.073170731707314, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.192601018350743, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 35.609756097560975, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.939172125610597, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.2520325203252, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.674751114086661, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.3252032520325203, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.23947798786446, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.433761650676416, "zonePPFit": 2.032782498557964, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.6553635928700854, "attemptProjection": 3.5933113978975757, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 70.0, "sog": 36.0, "seconds": 11271.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.654166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 5.833333333333333, "onNet": 0.5113233923578752, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2797.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.3974597130242823, "projectedAttempts": 0.9474503311258278, "onNet": 0.5401555305148644, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.580791892830098, "ppAdjusted": 0.5435456025537327, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.6243374953838305, "baseline": 4.4, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477492", "goals": 1, "sog": 9, "shootingPct": 0.1111111111111111, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 15, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 7 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.9346024972302986, "adjustedSOG": 3.889756911339103, "reductionPct": 1.1397742446095593, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.580791892830098, "afterPlayerForm": 2.5682116178798844, "afterRecentDefense": 2.5807918928300984, "afterRecentZones": 2.5807918928300984, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.5807918928300984, "adjusted": 2.568211617879885, "playerFactor": 0.995125420617926, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8669871504797075, "newChartFactor": 0.8617482650025292, "playerRecentAttempts": 29.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 80.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9715801676475834, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0090364822745925, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5435456025537327, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5043190947330718, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5188257650914174, "afterRecentZones": 0.5435456025537327, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5188257650914174, "adjusted": 0.4813832343519529, "playerFactor": 0.9278321678321678, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1.0609834749567388, "newChartFactor": 1.0609834749567388, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.916666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5686885801423246, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.889756911339103, "adjustedSOG": 3.889756911339103, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 2, "beforeSOG": 3.889756911339103, "adjustedSOG": 3.6174739275453662 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 92.0, "goalHistoryShots": 720.0, "goalExpected": 0.5178206708610903, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.5178206708610903, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.4041823832193731, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285226641263793, "modelSOG": 3.6174739275453662, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 80, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 92.0, "historyShots": 722.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12742382271468145, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12755750171853764, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 75.42803929548313, "btb": { "id": "8477492", "name": "Nathan MacKinnon", "score": 75.42803929548313, "components": { "Goal model": 99.28571428571429, "SOG model": 99.28571428571429, "Unit attack": 90.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 58.333333333333336, "Shot quality": 95.71428571428571, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 61.06666666666666, "Goalie H2H": 50.53212455656287 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.363313741275979, "unitPlayers": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 9, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 1 } }, { "id": "8477499", "name": "Rasmus Ristolainen", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 1.3181818181818181, "currentTOI": 17.35, "currentFiveTOI": 14.745833333333334, "ppShare": 0.01112759643916914, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 44, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0625, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.33399999999999996, "currentIXG": 0.08349999999999999, "priorTOI": 21.38598484848485, "priorPPTOI": 1.2507575757575757, "deploymentChange": -4.035984848484848, "ppTOIChange": -1.1882575757575757, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04482822110334304, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 163.0, "goalExpected": 0.0544657519569728, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0544657519569728, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.053009059111055024, "goalProbability": 0.053009059111055024, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.2149880279971905, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.068946029951964, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.745833333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01112759643916914, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.058160237388724036, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0025049991305859, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 15.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1348.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.260025873221216, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.812235009085402, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.568181818181817, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2937396070916519, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0722789410665416, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1040501689499949, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.853014627185159, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.85 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.6 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 72, "fitPct": 2.4092980355513873, "index": 102.40929803555139, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 62.22222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.7777777777777777, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.77777777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5555555555555556, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.4092980355513873, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3540501689499949, "attemptProjection": 1.0242835651707038, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 3539.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.745833333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.4186296059121826, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 15.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.058160237388724036, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9391668670603494, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1891668670603495, "baseline": 1.3181818181818181, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 44, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477499", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.240772847508937, "adjustedSOG": 1.2397837020379496, "reductionPct": 0.07972010936355689, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9391668670603494, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9391668670603494, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9391668670603494, "afterRecentZones": 0.9375182912753709, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9375182912753709, "adjusted": 0.9375182912753709, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0722789410665416, "newChartFactor": 1.069076671556152, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.983333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0465532454298034, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2397837020379496, "adjustedSOG": 1.2149880279971905, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2149880279971905, "adjustedSOG": 1.2149880279971905 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 163.0, "goalExpected": 0.05563954558367614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05502214842674287, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05411997891916968, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.05841639478396457 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0578982215017922, "modelSOG": 1.2149880279971905, "historyGames": 111, "seasonGames": { "2024": 63, "2025": 44, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 163.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03680981595092025, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04482822110334304, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477511", "name": "Anthony Mantha", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.1666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.876543209876543, "currentTOI": 13.394444444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 12.113888888888889, "ppShare": 0.25127334465195245, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.856, "currentIXG": 0.15466666666666667, "priorTOI": 15.18724279835391, "priorPPTOI": 2.1627572016460905, "deploymentChange": -1.7927983539094665, "ppTOIChange": -0.9294238683127571, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2025021126", "date": "20260324", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021067", "date": "20260316", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.95 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.166666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1880315905418316, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 181.0, "goalExpected": 0.24937570011213472, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2538474039012421, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22071285988652734, "goalProbability": 0.22418982137902116, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3476961492493824, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.3262436348782352, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.9529924329282276, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.108108108108109, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.113888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25127334465195245, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.192850405583852, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9708404802744426, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 888.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.667769141723168, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.302445057558748, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.442386831275721, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49096420612086666, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9014173512683941, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.03811249087487, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.04555951885538, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9357726118430603, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0587867318973425, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.037313432835821, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.30232558139535, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2025021126", "date": "20260324", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021067", "date": "20260316", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.95 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 157, "fitPct": 1.2704163624956664, "index": 101.27041636249567, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.643312101910828, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.398089171974522, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.017515923566876, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.869426751592357, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.302547770700638, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.769108280254778, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 39, "fitPct": 1.5186506285126598, "index": 101.51865062851266, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.128205128205128, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 67.17948717948717, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.435897435897438, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.102564102564102, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.128205128205128, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0256410256410255, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.2704163624956664, "zonePPFit": 1.5186506285126598, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.106444798676918, "attemptProjection": 1.0875751359330692, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 8722.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.113888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.5277383729233112, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 888.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.192850405583852, "projectedAttempts": 0.3223920015091492, "onNet": 0.5440549063253571, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9272915576457649, "ppAdjusted": 0.16971840965922863, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0970099673049936, "baseline": 1.876543209876543, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477511", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4088232643336136, "adjustedSOG": 1.3533098315084033, "reductionPct": 3.9404114221146536, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9272915576457649, "afterPlayerForm": 0.899299813437745, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8607523230739638, "afterRecentZones": 0.9272915576457649, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8607523230739638, "adjusted": 0.834769169603748, "playerFactor": 0.9698134378802217, "defenseFactor": 0.9282434591114656, "oldChartFactor": 1.03811249087487, "newChartFactor": 1.03811249087487, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8039768238082696, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6600723181175374, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.16971840965922863, "afterPlayerForm": 0.16971840965922863, "afterRecentDefense": 0.16971840965922863, "afterRecentZones": 0.16971840965922863, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.16971840965922863, "adjusted": 0.16971840965922863, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.04555951885538, "newChartFactor": 1.04555951885538, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.216666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.7549407114624505, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3533098315084033, "adjustedSOG": 1.3262436348782352, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 78, "beforeSOG": 1.3262436348782352, "adjustedSOG": 1.3262436348782352 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.24639097751610206, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2445805482587367, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21838342932794508, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14163432153271038 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12836876942254682, "modelSOG": 1.3262436348782352, "historyGames": 106, "seasonGames": { "2024": 13, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 181.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.22099447513812154, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1880315905418316, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 48.32733766233766, "btb": { "id": "8477511", "name": "Anthony Mantha", "score": 48.32733766233766, "components": { "Goal model": 80.0, "SOG model": 45.0, "Unit attack": 26.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 33.333333333333336, "Shot quality": 50.714285714285715, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 53.6, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.222986033107045, "unitPlayers": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 68 } }, { "id": "8477541", "name": "Dakota Mermis", "position": "D", "priorGP": 11.0, "priorSOG": 0.45454545454545453, "priorTOI": 13.02727272727273, "priorPPTOI": null, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.35, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0064482949600444, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 254.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1212121212121213, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1212121212121213, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0878233035005431 }, "inputs": null, "team": "TOR", "isHome": false, "opponent": "SEA", "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.0, "currentGP": 2, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentSOG": 0.5, "currentTOI": 13.958333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.35, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.04, "currentIXGTotal": 0.08, "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 0.47218181818181815, "deploymentChange": 0.9310606060606048, "ppTOIChange": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.06054738285922305, "goalProbability": 0.028184564111632268, "h2hFullLog": [], "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": true, "projected": true, "status": "Projected lineup", "line": "Defense pair 3", "lineMates": [ "Dakota Mermis", "Oliver Ekman-Larsson" ], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "dataPending": false, "opponentDataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.02858937332461859, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02858937332461859, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.028184564111632268, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5, "attemptProjection": 0.5, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1482.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.35, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.3972377507398882, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5, "baseline": 0.45454545454545453, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 11.0, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477541", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.4818181818181818, "adjustedSOG": 0.4818181818181818, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9987463622117753, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 24.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9941323514003023, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.4818181818181818, "adjustedSOG": 0.47218181818181815, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 140, "beforeSOG": 0.47218181818181815, "adjustedSOG": 0.47218181818181815 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 11.0, "goalExpected": 0.01087494147483619, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.010750404461122845, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01081602307027639, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.012319768967687661 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057813068802329816, "modelSOG": 0.47218181818181815, "historyGames": 17, "seasonGames": { "2024": 4, "2025": 11, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 12.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06054738285922305, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 29.34006211180124, "btb": { "id": "8477541", "name": "Dakota Mermis", "score": 29.34006211180124, "components": { "Goal model": 3.5714285714285716, "SOG model": 0.7142857142857143, "Unit attack": 13.043478260869565, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 47.857142857142854, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9831589698881407, "unitPlayers": [ "Dakota Mermis", "Oliver Ekman-Larsson" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 130 } }, { "id": "8477810", "name": "Joel Hanley", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.6323529411764706, "currentTOI": 16.3, "currentFiveTOI": 12.616666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.05, "currentIXG": 0.05, "priorTOI": 14.66985294117647, "priorPPTOI": 0.026225490196078432, "deploymentChange": 1.63014705882353, "ppTOIChange": -0.026225490196078432, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.05 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04210078945601633, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 85.0, "goalExpected": 0.015078465406023863, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.015975935727997916, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.014965354572758147, "goalProbability": 0.01584899735224936, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08836427794912151, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.3581516071516114, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.616666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.01231993739639, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 154.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.827035812772796, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.420833333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006963646811198979, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0471380471380471, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.949402793112437, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9941557867271648, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.05 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 76, "fitPct": -1.6865735629187668, "index": 98.31342643708123, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 86.8421052631579, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.5263157894736842, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5263157894736842, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.6865735629187668, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.38388870576497197, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 757.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.616666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.3894487752351845, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.19194435288248599, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.19194435288248599, "baseline": 0.6323529411764706, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477810", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.36810778820007983, "adjustedSOG": 0.36546082362409327, "reductionPct": 0.7190732336659678, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.19194435288248599, "afterPlayerForm": 0.19194435288248599, "afterRecentDefense": 0.18753274525584177, "afterRecentZones": 0.19194435288248599, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.18753274525584177, "adjusted": 0.18753274525584177, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9770162155833513, "oldChartFactor": 0.949402793112437, "newChartFactor": 0.923104304362391, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.616666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8945910632623657, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.36546082362409327, "adjustedSOG": 0.3581516071516114, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.3581516071516114, "adjustedSOG": 0.3581516071516114 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 85.0, "goalExpected": 0.015936045793028247, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.015936045793028247, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01580973884974906, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057886460493630214, "modelSOG": 0.3581516071516114, "historyGames": 122, "seasonGames": { "2024": 53, "2025": 68, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 85.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.023529411764705882, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04210078945601633, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477919", "name": "Frederick Gaudreau", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.1666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.0294117647058822, "currentTOI": 15.372222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 12.265277777777778, "ppShare": 0.01482799525504152, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.06944444444444445, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.148, "currentIXG": 0.17900000000000002, "priorTOI": 16.143627450980393, "priorPPTOI": 0.28627450980392155, "deploymentChange": -0.7714052287581712, "ppTOIChange": -0.2168300653594771, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020807", "date": "20250129", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020189", "date": "20241103", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.428571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14913688322362773, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 194.0, "goalExpected": 0.1694565406341891, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16703035357271398, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15587656124746657, "goalProbability": 0.15382607345443042, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20504877930361542, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.1362483711027571, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.484203374476277, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.265277777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01482799525504152, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07790875840253064, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0144563171058298, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 50.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.86153734273871, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.493150684931507, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.481372549019609, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06876827698474194, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1250111796798141, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.347015933027275, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020807", "date": "20250129", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020189", "date": "20241103", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ben Meyers", "Frederick Gaudreau", "Ryan Winterton" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": 8.417395012741665, "index": 108.41739501274166, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.524752475247524, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.12871287128713, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.33910891089109, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.918316831683169, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.316831683168317, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.7722772277227725, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.417395012741665, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3041666666666665, "attemptProjection": 1.2487137278124307, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8831.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.265277777777778, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5049834317075697, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 50.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07790875840253064, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0264401972395487, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2764401972395487, "baseline": 1.0294117647058822, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477919", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1776288242260822, "adjustedSOG": 1.1362483711027571, "reductionPct": 3.5138790994284297, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0264401972395487, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9855268756970551, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0009586672411055, "afterRecentZones": 1.0226078457730177, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9972214544676241, "adjusted": 0.9574727753673401, "playerFactor": 0.9601405696576151, "defenseFactor": 0.9751748518160417, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.2409114194469617, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7409977943996932, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8818658854948088, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.16666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1362483711027571, "adjustedSOG": 1.1362483711027571, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 97, "beforeSOG": 1.1362483711027571, "adjustedSOG": 1.1362483711027571 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 192.0, "goalExpected": 0.1928525613705932, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18312012686927565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17539645640685753, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8064580320942483 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284624366774655, "modelSOG": 1.1362483711027571, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 68, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 194.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15979381443298968, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14913688322362773, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.022588922705204, "btb": { "id": "8477919", "name": "Frederick Gaudreau", "score": 43.022588922705204, "components": { "Goal model": 55.714285714285715, "SOG model": 31.428571428571427, "Unit attack": 30.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 58.57142857142857, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 43.44615384615385, "Goalie H2H": 49.910554561717355 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2277187263032197, "unitPlayers": [ "Ben Meyers", "Frederick Gaudreau", "Ryan Winterton" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 84 } }, { "id": "8477934", "name": "Leon Draisaitl", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 3.8333333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.8615384615384616, "currentTOI": 21.931944444444444, "currentFiveTOI": 16.65972222222222, "ppShare": 0.7459396751740139, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 46.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5722222222222224, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.5809999999999995, "currentIXG": 0.5484166666666667, "priorTOI": 21.575128205128205, "priorPPTOI": 3.4679487179487176, "deploymentChange": 0.3568162393162382, "ppTOIChange": 0.10427350427350479, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 25.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 24.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 22.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 5.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.19514474727336775, "goalHistoryGoals": 99.0, "goalHistoryShots": 473.0, "goalExpected": 0.641499542891792, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6309339954524891, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.47349768101705325, "goalProbability": 0.46790540508301803, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5592275934035218, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 3.2873011026689327, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.203001250521051, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.595645412130636, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.65972222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7459396751740139, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.692213023506527, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.6666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 1.0012772668533654, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2572.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.517586525077806, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 17.30129390018484, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.395128205128206, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8515060382031806, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0581474413809744, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.188686509454039, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8701447371767403, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8712320076484649, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.4923354373309285, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.78021978021978, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 4.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 25.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 3.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 24.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 22.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Vasily Podkolzin", "Connor McDavid", "Leon Draisaitl" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 37, "priorAttempts": 156, "fitPct": 6.289550315134633, "index": 106.28955031513463, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.223839223839224, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.03049203049203, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.998613998613997, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.1011781011781, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.98613998613998, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.659736659736659, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": -4.328508760775321, "index": 95.67149123922468, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.442248572683354, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.270531400966183, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.42555994729908, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.40404040404040403, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.05357927097058, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.40404040404040403, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.289550315134633, "zonePPFit": -4.328508760775321, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.017246098514931, "attemptProjection": 4.10839765215165, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 50.0, "sog": 24.0, "seconds": 11995.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.65972222222222, "projectedAttempts": 4.166666666666666, "onNet": 0.49102233406731677, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 2572.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.692213023506527, "projectedAttempts": 2.32557740982915, "onNet": 0.5129269673523307, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.247756585839604, "ppAdjusted": 1.14839862282702, "other": 0.6666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 4.062821875333291, "baseline": 2.8615384615384616, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477934", "goals": 2, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.4, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 2, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.582308509815359, "adjustedSOG": 3.534732368461218, "reductionPct": 1.32808609933468, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.247756585839604, "afterPlayerForm": 2.1757370956374738, "afterRecentDefense": 2.2402417264456025, "afterRecentZones": 2.247756585839604, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.2402417264456025, "adjusted": 2.1684630169160357, "playerFactor": 0.9679593908629441, "defenseFactor": 0.9966567290064487, "oldChartFactor": 1.188686509454039, "newChartFactor": 1.188686509454039, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8201709401709402, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9841088217197997, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.14839862282702, "afterPlayerForm": 1.14839862282702, "afterRecentDefense": 1.14839862282702, "afterRecentZones": 1.14839862282702, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.14839862282702, "adjusted": 1.14839862282702, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8701447371767403, "newChartFactor": 0.8701447371767403, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1126418422015907, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.534732368461218, "adjustedSOG": 3.534732368461218, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 3, "beforeSOG": 3.534732368461218, "adjustedSOG": 3.2873011026689327 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 99.0, "goalHistoryShots": 470.0, "goalExpected": 0.6100892535153227, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.6102297375199214, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.456697624736465, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.007631993239459733 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12817940187639718, "modelSOG": 3.2873011026689327, "historyGames": 148, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 65, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 99.0, "historyShots": 473.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.20930232558139536, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.19514474727336775, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 73.60516176026437, "btb": { "id": "8477934", "name": "Leon Draisaitl", "score": 73.60516176026437, "components": { "Goal model": 100.0, "SOG model": 98.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 93.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 66.66666666666667, "Shot quality": 99.28571428571429, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 62.68235294117647, "Goalie H2H": 53.911205073995774 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3642313805252755, "unitPlayers": [ "Vasily Podkolzin", "Connor McDavid", "Leon Draisaitl" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 2 } }, { "id": "8477939", "name": "William Nylander", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 2.9285714285714284, "priorSOG": 2.4, "currentTOI": 19.985714285714288, "currentFiveTOI": 14.75, "ppShare": 0.7482758620689656, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 41.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3583333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.93 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.084, "currentIXG": 0.43457142857142855, "priorTOI": 19.415641025641026, "priorPPTOI": 2.672051282051282, "deploymentChange": 0.5700732600732614, "ppTOIChange": 0.6862820512820513, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17605190005559576, "goalHistoryGoals": 84.0, "goalHistoryShots": 450.0, "goalExpected": 0.44999610199594947, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.44999610199594947, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.36236936289626476, "goalProbability": 0.36236936289626476, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.5560422912439136, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.426150121065374, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.656859269762496, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.75, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7482758620689656, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0993318965517243, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.42857142857142855, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 0.9986202802997413, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2821.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.237920693102299, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.018232415315229, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.38974358974359, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7181207151272919, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0846698211967674, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.182428348516567, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0745897857788762, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.478394429653902, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.2202166064981945, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 17.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Easton Cowan", "Nick Paul", "William Nylander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 44, "priorAttempts": 161, "fitPct": 6.080944950552237, "index": 106.08094495055224, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.59288537549407, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.175042348955394, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.90118577075099, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.538678712591755, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.94409937888199, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.848108413325804, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": 2.486326192629207, "index": 102.4863261926292, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.274725274725274, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.7032967032967, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.754578754578755, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.794871794871792, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.472527472527473, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.080944950552237, "zonePPFit": 2.486326192629207, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.2655612921561192, "attemptProjection": 3.159741260665823, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 49.0, "sog": 29.0, "seconds": 12390.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.75, "projectedAttempts": 3.4999999999999996, "onNet": 0.5464872061286028, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2821.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0993318965517243, "projectedAttempts": 1.0547176960970064, "onNet": 0.47720267403226446, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.274078294710372, "ppAdjusted": 0.5100015531291711, "other": 0.42857142857142855 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.212651276410971, "baseline": 2.4, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8477939", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.8875907658465825, "adjustedSOG": 2.8045230318673617, "reductionPct": 2.876714213167497, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.274078294710372, "afterPlayerForm": 2.263252138181668, "afterRecentDefense": 2.1513645846326277, "afterRecentZones": 2.274078294710372, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.1513645846326277, "adjusted": 2.1411226286728353, "playerFactor": 0.9952393211113767, "defenseFactor": 0.9460380452321352, "oldChartFactor": 1.182428348516567, "newChartFactor": 1.182428348516567, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.48333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9704279888976459, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7474312027727088, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5100015531291711, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5045109958680056, "afterRecentDefense": 0.510001553129171, "afterRecentZones": 0.5100015531291711, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5100015531291711, "adjusted": 0.5045109958680056, "playerFactor": 0.9892342342342342, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0745897857788762, "newChartFactor": 1.0745897857788762, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9218954248366013, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.8045230318673617, "adjustedSOG": 2.7484325712300146, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 10, "beforeSOG": 2.7484325712300146, "adjustedSOG": 2.5560422912439136 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 83.0, "goalHistoryShots": 446.0, "goalExpected": 0.4457875585679493, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.4406825148835232, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.35968021193383465, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3277218544572025 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12828545030577676, "modelSOG": 2.5560422912439136, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 65, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 84.0, "historyShots": 450.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18666666666666668, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17605190005559576, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.8810989010989, "btb": { "id": "8477939", "name": "William Nylander", "score": 63.8810989010989, "components": { "Goal model": 98.57142857142857, "SOG model": 93.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 63.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 4.166666666666667, "Shot quality": 96.42857142857143, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.96923076923077, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5897019380783695, "unitPlayers": [ "Easton Cowan", "Nick Paul", "William Nylander" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 23 } }, { "id": "8477948", "name": "Travis Sanheim", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.9285714285714286, "priorSOG": 1.1728395061728396, "currentTOI": 25.764285714285712, "currentFiveTOI": 20.247619047619047, "ppShare": 0.13129366417730667, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6488095238095238, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.93 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.575, "currentIXG": 0.18392857142857144, "priorTOI": 24.222633744855965, "priorPPTOI": 1.0211934156378601, "deploymentChange": 1.541651969429747, "ppTOIChange": -0.3723838918283363, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 24.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07138717696757317, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 261.0, "goalExpected": 0.11652416193093747, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11652416193093747, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10999140760926068, "goalProbability": 0.10999140760926068, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.6322842123854717, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.656632173095014, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.247619047619047, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13129366417730667, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6862282181000562, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.35714285714285715, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0025049991305859, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 545.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4151.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.8766413268832065, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.626838605682047, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.05514403292181, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.23982661267700917, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0526905333949708, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.083881364014081, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.525957698565301, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 24.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 23.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 23.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.116666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Travis Sanheim", "Jamie Drysdale" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 32, "priorAttempts": 133, "fitPct": 1.7563511131656924, "index": 101.75635111316569, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 56.23590225563909, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 81 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.835526315789474, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.409774436090226, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.558270676691729, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.359022556390977, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6015037593984963, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.7563511131656924, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0603850005935556, "attemptProjection": 1.9390621178176515, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 48.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 17008.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.247619047619047, "projectedAttempts": 3.4285714285714284, "onNet": 0.42716211772443274, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 545.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6862282181000562, "projectedAttempts": 0.07554806070826307, "onNet": 0.40579710144927533, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6255623145198457, "ppAdjusted": 0.01701838754290064, "other": 0.35714285714285715 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9997235592056035, "baseline": 1.1728395061728396, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477948", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.668969937992498, "adjustedSOG": 1.6655961350872162, "reductionPct": 0.2021488121793258, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6255623145198457, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6255623145198457, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6255623145198457, "afterRecentZones": 1.6218173720074223, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6218173720074223, "adjusted": 1.6218173720074223, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0526905333949708, "newChartFactor": 1.0480614023626096, "playerRecentAttempts": 22.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 104.93333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2381406183820414, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0465532454298034, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.01701838754290064, "afterPlayerForm": 0.015399187392764266, "afterRecentDefense": 0.016732306415379615, "afterRecentZones": 0.01701838754290064, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.016732306415379615, "adjusted": 0.015140325213187956, "playerFactor": 0.9048558421851289, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.966666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6655961350872162, "adjustedSOG": 1.6322842123854717, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 56, "beforeSOG": 1.6322842123854717, "adjustedSOG": 1.6322842123854717 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 259.0, "goalExpected": 0.11993194718546069, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11860113755283316, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11301920379705829, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11811883816515711 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05770770885293916, "modelSOG": 1.6322842123854717, "historyGames": 177, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 81, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 261.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07662835249042145, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07138717696757317, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.87826086956522, "btb": { "id": "8477948", "name": "Travis Sanheim", "score": 43.87826086956522, "components": { "Goal model": 33.57142857142857, "SOG model": 60.714285714285715, "Unit attack": 34.78260869565217, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 4.166666666666667, "Shot quality": 60.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 61.55555555555556, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3130773820697463, "unitPlayers": [ "Travis Sanheim", "Jamie Drysdale" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 81 } }, { "id": "8477949", "name": "Alex Tuch", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.7, "priorSOG": 2.4683544303797467, "currentTOI": 19.168333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 13.115, "ppShare": 0.4494264859228363, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1550000000000002, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.7379999999999995, "currentIXG": 0.47379999999999994, "priorTOI": 18.993881856540085, "priorPPTOI": 1.570886075949367, "deploymentChange": 0.1744514767932479, "ppTOIChange": 0.5841139240506332, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020736", "date": "20260114", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020535", "date": "20251218", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020423", "date": "20251203", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021307", "date": "20250417", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021159", "date": "20250329", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.17116008510412684, "goalHistoryGoals": 76.0, "goalHistoryShots": 419.0, "goalExpected": 0.41057546503249015, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.41057546503249015, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.33673154751030354, "goalProbability": 0.33673154751030354, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.398780444533623, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.319862752573389, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.568445475638051, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.115, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4494264859228363, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.400097944287204, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.9, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0002790509671295, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1293.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.678212021989245, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.570507655116842, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.045991561181436, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3277536785408119, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0638861304203906, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0503457716109323, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8228706563526506, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1174482985625742, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.402800933644547, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.43801652892562, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020736", "date": "20260114", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020535", "date": "20251218", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020423", "date": "20251203", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021307", "date": "20250417", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021159", "date": "20250329", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020278", "date": "20241116", "team": "BUF", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Tuch", "Dylan Strome", "Jordan Kyrou" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 231, "fitPct": 1.6781923870310749, "index": 101.67819238703107, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.03896103896104, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.645021645021643, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.683982683982684, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.614718614718614, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.835497835497836, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 70 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.181818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 43, "fitPct": -5.9043114549116495, "index": 94.09568854508835, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.58139534883721, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.651162790697675, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.883720930232556, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.441860465116279, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 37.44186046511628, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.6781923870310749, "zonePPFit": -5.9043114549116495, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.8772521503353046, "attemptProjection": 2.728246487104317, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 7869.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.115, "projectedAttempts": 3.3000000000000003, "onNet": 0.4932733265618287, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1293.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.400097944287204, "projectedAttempts": 0.22274690898257118, "onNet": 0.5649800950301785, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7494892400784399, "ppAdjusted": 0.15326007864137087, "other": 0.9 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.802749318719811, "baseline": 2.4683544303797467, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477949", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021047", "date": "20260314", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 8 }, { "gameId": "2025020831", "date": "20260127", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.6689913633837854, "adjustedSOG": 2.5793338113264763, "reductionPct": 3.3592297557546225, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7494892400784399, "afterPlayerForm": 1.697574644375805, "afterRecentDefense": 1.658093534520479, "afterRecentZones": 1.7431076246547723, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6520453033960023, "adjusted": 1.6030222731060906, "playerFactor": 0.9703258559622195, "defenseFactor": 0.9477586352266659, "oldChartFactor": 1.0503457716109323, "newChartFactor": 1.042847770601715, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 68.33333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8142350332594235, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7529604082771819, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.15326007864137087, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1502977921848725, "afterRecentDefense": 0.15326007864137087, "afterRecentZones": 0.15326007864137087, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.15326007864137087, "adjusted": 0.1502977921848725, "playerFactor": 0.9806715063520871, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8228706563526506, "newChartFactor": 0.8228706563526506, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8585657370517927, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.5793338113264763, "adjustedSOG": 2.5793338113264763, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 12, "beforeSOG": 2.5793338113264763, "adjustedSOG": 2.398780444533623 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 74.0, "goalHistoryShots": 416.0, "goalExpected": 0.4647444345271341, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.48121911473187046, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.37170434465051283, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.0266171848399286 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12832084169041838, "modelSOG": 2.398780444533623, "historyGames": 171, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 79, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 76.0, "historyShots": 419.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.18138424821002386, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.17116008510412684, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.29011904761904, "btb": { "id": "8477949", "name": "Alex Tuch", "score": 68.29011904761904, "components": { "Goal model": 95.71428571428571, "SOG model": 92.14285714285714, "Unit attack": 96.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 41.666666666666664, "Shot quality": 97.14285714285714, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 39.95, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3892961896127733, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Tuch", "Dylan Strome", "Jordan Kyrou" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 7 } }, { "id": "8477953", "name": "Kasperi Kapanen", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.4166666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.5853658536585367, "currentTOI": 17.849999999999998, "currentFiveTOI": 14.026388888888889, "ppShare": 0.40458236658932717, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 41, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9375, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.413, "currentIXG": 0.2010833333333333, "priorTOI": 14.590650406504066, "priorPPTOI": 0.26097560975609757, "deploymentChange": 3.259349593495932, "ppTOIChange": 1.6765243902439024, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.266666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12037638749424252, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 148.0, "goalExpected": 0.1868522938052679, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18377482197194014, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17043374058806798, "goalProbability": 0.16787684141625447, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2556899171813509, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.5522337702168114, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.564709377166056, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.32258064516129, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.026388888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.40458236658932717, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.002580547352879, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 1.0012772668533654, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1395.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.6749072929542645, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.607476635514018, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.154471544715449, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06407889089620618, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0581474413809744, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2426202690129715, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.772550574955234, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.5215204024594744, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.688656476267095, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 10.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Colton Dach", "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "Kasperi Kapanen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 90, "fitPct": 8.087342300432383, "index": 108.08734230043238, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.13888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.13888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.833333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.305555555555557, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 14.36111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -7.581647501492199, "index": 92.4183524985078, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.857142857142854, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.087342300432383, "zonePPFit": -7.581647501492199, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5011838219784854, "attemptProjection": 1.5752493660765192, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 10099.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.026388888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.48753101953794, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1395.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.002580547352879, "projectedAttempts": 0.6890599732827112, "onNet": 0.5085409738987837, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9587451993759736, "ppAdjusted": 0.32947139465152864, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5382165940275023, "baseline": 1.5853658536585367, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 41, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477953", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5570762978799162, "adjustedSOG": 1.5522337702168114, "reductionPct": 0.31100130865123754, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9587451993759736, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9587451993759736, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9555398543606934, "afterRecentZones": 0.9587451993759736, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9555398543606934, "adjusted": 0.9555398543606934, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9966567290064487, "oldChartFactor": 1.2426202690129715, "newChartFactor": 1.2426202690129715, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 81.21666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3188254388746898, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9841088217197997, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.32947139465152864, "afterPlayerForm": 0.32460586022830085, "afterRecentDefense": 0.32947139465152864, "afterRecentZones": 0.32947139465152864, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.32947139465152864, "adjusted": 0.32460586022830085, "playerFactor": 0.9852323008849557, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.772550574955234, "newChartFactor": 0.772550574955234, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.8333333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7581521739130435, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5522337702168114, "adjustedSOG": 1.5522337702168114, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 62, "beforeSOG": 1.5522337702168114, "adjustedSOG": 1.5522337702168114 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.1789703263340143, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17901153746501336, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16386928990766678, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0034457182211372617 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853344098572142, "modelSOG": 1.5522337702168114, "historyGames": 120, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 41, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 148.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11486486486486487, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12037638749424252, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 49.02775753961801, "btb": { "id": "8477953", "name": "Kasperi Kapanen", "score": 49.02775753961801, "components": { "Goal model": 60.714285714285715, "SOG model": 56.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 6.666666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 67.85714285714286, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 55.815384615384616, "Goalie H2H": 52.84237726098191 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7803001179944162, "unitPlayers": [ "Colton Dach", "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "Kasperi Kapanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 65 } }, { "id": "8477955", "name": "Jared McCann", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 2.25, "currentTOI": 16.13030303030303, "currentFiveTOI": 12.345454545454546, "ppShare": 0.48771580345285526, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.225757575757576, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.642, "currentIXG": 0.42200000000000004, "priorTOI": 16.43397435897436, "priorPPTOI": 2.676602564102564, "deploymentChange": -0.3036713286713315, "ppTOIChange": -0.4508449883449881, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.4 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.928571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12942106256469124, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 347.0, "goalExpected": 0.324142810291032, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3195019089162306, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27685303782284737, "goalProbability": 0.27348918447362375, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3363853349223622, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.504559952357128, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.511045655375552, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.154526889040163, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.345454545454546, "Current_PP_Share": 0.48771580345285526, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5625401173085436, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.36363636363636365, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 0.9820855078281815, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1469.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3012.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.714717665734372, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.088013411567477, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.720192307692308, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6429679912205519, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9819596160211851, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1930653070731618, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.247978436657682, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.60261337432744, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 103, "fitPct": 6.435510235772057, "index": 106.43551023577206, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.54368932038835, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.320388349514563, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.543689320388353, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.54854368932039, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.936893203883496, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.106796116504853, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": 13.755066673489765, "index": 113.75506667348976, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.82051282051282, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.282051282051283, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 19.48717948717949, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.205128205128204, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 48.205128205128204, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.435510235772057, "zonePPFit": 13.755066673489765, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.983459721719184, "attemptProjection": 2.472006519882804, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 8148.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.345454545454546, "projectedAttempts": 2.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.5446972221380751, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 1469.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.5625401173085436, "projectedAttempts": 1.1513114209827358, "onNet": 0.5635895892060537, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6097748918323245, "ppAdjusted": 0.7543218653323056, "other": 0.36363636363636365 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.727733120800994, "baseline": 2.25, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477955", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.5366398724805963, "adjustedSOG": 2.504559952357128, "reductionPct": 1.2646619834173478, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6097748918323245, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6097748918323245, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6097748918323247, "afterRecentZones": 1.6097748918323247, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6097748918323247, "adjusted": 1.6097748918323247, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1930653070731618, "newChartFactor": 1.1930653070731618, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.88333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0077346804806349, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3517003152458247, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7543218653323056, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7008553317931909, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7543218653323056, "afterRecentZones": 0.7543218653323056, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7543218653323056, "adjusted": 0.7008553317931909, "playerFactor": 0.9291197352266055, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.383333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.49892448771651765, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.504559952357128, "adjustedSOG": 2.504559952357128, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.504559952357128, "adjustedSOG": 2.504559952357128 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 346.0, "goalExpected": 0.3376413736214339, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.320602074115368, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28654889558987556, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.2260868710094297 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285121496641699, "modelSOG": 2.504559952357128, "historyGames": 145, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 52, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 347.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12968299711815562, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12942106256469124, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8477986", "name": "Brandon Montour", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.8181818181818181, "priorSOG": 2.71875, "currentTOI": 23.70909090909091, "currentFiveTOI": 18.934848484848484, "ppShare": 0.4800270819228165, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.1484848484848484, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.82 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.604, "currentIXG": 0.14581818181818182, "priorTOI": 22.559635416666666, "priorPPTOI": 1.7796875, "deploymentChange": 1.149455492424245, "ppTOIChange": 0.36879734848484835, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.733333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07003284411676888, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 425.0, "goalExpected": 0.15203219506544052, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1498554803560821, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14103937399761218, "goalProbability": 0.13916762537589675, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18717486217154355, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.1708699251447, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.897175322077299, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.538787023977433, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.934848484848484, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4800270819228165, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5221422929361315, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0193427190652695, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1418.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2954.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.169707438194969, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.69622475856014, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.297916666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4275128897438651, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1466049382716048, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0603795286050925, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.008193307615009, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.892728861275605, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.3676333021515434, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 6.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.733333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ryker Evans", "Brandon Montour" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 191, "fitPct": 10.907009081771335, "index": 110.90700908177133, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 56.436050860134635, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 116 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.037397157816006, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.8182498130142113, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.151084517576663, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.51009723261032, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0471204188481675, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": 2.0126509535030834, "index": 102.01265095350308, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.22222222222222, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1111111111111112, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 10.907009081771335, "zonePPFit": 2.0126509535030834, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.066684998537636, "attemptProjection": 2.116318668639517, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 12497.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.934848484848484, "projectedAttempts": 3.6363636363636362, "onNet": 0.4095765281888268, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1418.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.5221422929361315, "projectedAttempts": 0.853757616790792, "onNet": 0.3740629685157421, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6919679182508522, "ppAdjusted": 0.21771573351954254, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0915018335885764, "baseline": 2.71875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8477986", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.342401100153146, "adjustedSOG": 2.3342687367147312, "reductionPct": 0.34718065312908664, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6919679182508522, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6919679182508522, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6919679182508522, "afterRecentZones": 1.6919679182508522, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6919679182508522, "adjusted": 1.6919679182508522, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 92.16666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0169349005424955, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.231012787098876, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.21771573351954254, "afterPlayerForm": 0.20416179445551796, "afterRecentDefense": 0.21771573351954254, "afterRecentZones": 0.21771573351954254, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.21771573351954254, "adjusted": 0.20416179445551796, "playerFactor": 0.9377447883765003, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0603795286050925, "newChartFactor": 1.0603795286050925, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.383333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5190336749633968, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.3342687367147312, "adjustedSOG": 2.3342687367147312, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 23, "beforeSOG": 2.3342687367147312, "adjustedSOG": 2.1708699251447 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 421.0, "goalExpected": 0.12594889098431342, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11959279530527864, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1183400935980836, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5621762023548929 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05767243161303659, "modelSOG": 2.1708699251447, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 64, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 425.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07294117647058823, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07003284411676888, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.021667342234814, "btb": { "id": "8477986", "name": "Brandon Montour", "score": 49.021667342234814, "components": { "Goal model": 49.285714285714285, "SOG model": 84.28571428571429, "Unit attack": 43.47826086956522, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 25.0, "Shot quality": 47.142857142857146, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 57.13333333333333, "Goalie H2H": 48.74945151382185 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3920681345564914, "unitPlayers": [ "Ryker Evans", "Brandon Montour" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 66 } }, { "id": "8477989", "name": "Christian Dvorak", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.2142857142857142, "priorSOG": 1.8875, "currentTOI": 17.745238095238097, "currentFiveTOI": 13.610714285714286, "ppShare": 0.26258732835461335, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2976190476190477, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.21 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.847, "currentIXG": 0.13192857142857142, "priorTOI": 18.459375, "priorPPTOI": 1.5472916666666667, "deploymentChange": -0.7141369047619044, "ppTOIChange": -0.24967261904761906, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020665", "date": "20250110", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.85 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12057572127408912, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 272.0, "goalExpected": 0.17515395585113502, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17515395585113502, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1606722086028522, "goalProbability": 0.1606722086028522, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.4526469674021711, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.352925741275256, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.610714285714286, "Current_PP_Share": 0.26258732835461335, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3724564362001124, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9734807759894489, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1090.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4151.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.70852722368772, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.663794264171267, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.057916666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36338044640470457, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9090689562650927, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0671127374453653, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9700790624466441, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.967816598699438, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020665", "date": "20250110", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020430", "date": "20241207", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020164", "date": "20241031", "team": "MTL", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Cole Knuble" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 158, "fitPct": 2.2370912481788423, "index": 102.23709124817884, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.653359298928919, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.614410905550148, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.740019474196686, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 88 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.656280428432325, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.8266796494644595, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 11.509250243427458, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.2370912481788423, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1779531472566394, "attemptProjection": 1.3553765063777277, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 11433.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.610714285714286, "projectedAttempts": 2.357142857142857, "onNet": 0.5103470732884942, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1090.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3724564362001124, "projectedAttempts": 0.15109612141652615, "onNet": 0.5005730465853164, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2246785924656094, "ppAdjusted": 0.04198623435157405, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2666648268171836, "baseline": 1.8875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8477989", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5149988960903102, "adjustedSOG": 1.4822928238797666, "reductionPct": 2.158818220590575, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2246785924656094, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2246785924656094, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1750023098032703, "afterRecentZones": 1.2246785924656094, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1750023098032703, "adjusted": 1.1750023098032703, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9594372899404346, "oldChartFactor": 1.0671127374453653, "newChartFactor": 1.0671127374453653, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.150192941988057, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8085007776538419, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.04198623435157405, "afterPlayerForm": 0.03778761091641665, "afterRecentDefense": 0.041280440736674785, "afterRecentZones": 0.04198623435157405, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.041280440736674785, "adjusted": 0.037152396663007306, "playerFactor": 0.9, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.4822928238797666, "adjustedSOG": 1.4526469674021711, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 73, "beforeSOG": 1.4526469674021711, "adjustedSOG": 1.4526469674021711 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 269.0, "goalExpected": 0.1657514496909051, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1639122097632024, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15274320604101096, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15597424550750916 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285416831396115, "modelSOG": 1.4526469674021711, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 272.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11764705882352941, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12057572127408912, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.292633053221294, "btb": { "id": "8477989", "name": "Christian Dvorak", "score": 43.292633053221294, "components": { "Goal model": 58.57142857142857, "SOG model": 48.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 20.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 4.166666666666667, "Shot quality": 37.142857142857146, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 53.45882352941177, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.190168083364521, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Cole Knuble" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 82 } }, { "id": "8478013", "name": "Jake Walman", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 1.1111111111111112, "priorSOG": 1.8113207547169812, "currentTOI": 14.742592592592594, "currentFiveTOI": 12.377777777777778, "ppShare": 0.16535714285714287, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8574074074074074, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.11 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.518, "currentIXG": 0.057555555555555554, "priorTOI": 18.75062893081761, "priorPPTOI": 0.6657232704402516, "deploymentChange": -4.008036338225015, "ppTOIChange": 0.1916841369671558, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020914", "date": "20250223", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 26.183333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05617135879872182, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 270.0, "goalExpected": 0.08608371695263559, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08466591142916693, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08248258375723999, "goalProbability": 0.08118079987649157, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13017838807484194, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.5325197537253525, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2315978456014363, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.550755939524837, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.377777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.16535714285714287, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8184761002886003, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2222222222222222, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9968813884137818, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 463.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2800.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.725646123260438, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.203117619272556, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.608490566037737, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.16345898704279102, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0388007054673722, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1373618524847775, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.396804260985353, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 22.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020914", "date": "20250223", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 26.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 116, "fitPct": 4.578728416159251, "index": 104.57872841615925, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 74.15821501014199, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 82 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.7586206896551726, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.7241379310344827, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.726166328600405, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.598377281947261, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0344827586206897, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": 9.576559928413147, "index": 109.57655992841315, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 70.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.578728416159251, "zonePPFit": 9.576559928413147, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2328407287157286, "attemptProjection": 1.4634432823830572, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 6684.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.377777777777778, "projectedAttempts": 2.888888888888889, "onNet": 0.34028799390782116, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 463.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8184761002886003, "projectedAttempts": 0.4242640692640693, "onNet": 0.42028985507246375, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9107981686320813, "ppAdjusted": 0.21512161469508934, "other": 0.2222222222222222 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.348142005549393, "baseline": 1.8113207547169812, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478013", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5334135052164282, "adjustedSOG": 1.5325197537253525, "reductionPct": 0.05828509322731712, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9107981686320813, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9107981686320813, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9107981686320813, "afterRecentZones": 0.9102275031830749, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9102275031830749, "adjusted": 0.9102275031830749, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1373618524847775, "newChartFactor": 1.1356686704528705, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2041073680417944, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.157696537898326, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.21512161469508934, "afterPlayerForm": 0.21420269432563604, "afterRecentDefense": 0.21512161469508934, "afterRecentZones": 0.21512161469508934, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.21512161469508934, "adjusted": 0.21420269432563604, "playerFactor": 0.9957283680175246, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.21666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5325197537253525, "adjustedSOG": 1.5325197537253525, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.5325197537253525, "adjustedSOG": 1.5325197537253525 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 270.0, "goalExpected": 0.08570807229542819, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08572780811793797, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08213785849888657, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0018114585559392271 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783402755527075, "modelSOG": 1.5325197537253525, "historyGames": 127, "seasonGames": { "2024": 65, "2025": 53, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 270.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05555555555555555, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05617135879872182, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478038", "name": "Devon Toews", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.4166666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.6911764705882353, "currentTOI": 20.355555555555558, "currentFiveTOI": 16.15277777777778, "ppShare": 0.28688741721854305, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5041666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.081, "currentIXG": 0.09008333333333333, "priorTOI": 22.368872549019606, "priorPPTOI": 1.3208333333333333, "deploymentChange": -2.0133169934640485, "ppTOIChange": 0.18333333333333335, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 23.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 24.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06156439315683148, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 270.0, "goalExpected": 0.0888977886868814, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09201943587549649, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08506091407924378, "goalProbability": 0.08791257784476164, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.28516637655178617, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.4439805889163853, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.333619948409287, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.15277777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.28688741721854305, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3154983443708608, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.0019232912258917, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1083.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.446335204270677, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.016329560215253, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.860049019607843, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2411198680351906, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9298540965207632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9596125840483962, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8922996923502764, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.653739612188366, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 23.483333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 24.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 140, "fitPct": -1.3462471983867914, "index": 98.65375280161321, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 73.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 88 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.657142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.799999999999999, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.9714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1428571428571428, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.3462471983867914, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2910163077419894, "attemptProjection": 1.2673503611949812, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 11630.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.15277777777778, "projectedAttempts": 2.9166666666666665, "onNet": 0.3983751474940519, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1083.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3154983443708608, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0291833344684853, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2791833344684853, "baseline": 1.6911764705882353, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478038", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4439805889163853, "adjustedSOG": 1.4439805889163853, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0291833344684853, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0291833344684853, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0291833344684853, "afterRecentZones": 1.0291833344684853, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0291833344684853, "adjusted": 1.0291833344684853, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9596125840483962, "newChartFactor": 0.9596125840483962, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 77.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2077949845749718, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0391569742827893, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4439805889163853, "adjustedSOG": 1.4439805889163853, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 74, "beforeSOG": 1.4439805889163853, "adjustedSOG": 1.4439805889163853 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 269.0, "goalExpected": 0.0938383618135568, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0938383618135568, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08957008941231837, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05778825468027647, "modelSOG": 1.4439805889163853, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 68, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 270.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06296296296296296, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06156439315683148, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 47.00528847870102, "btb": { "id": "8478038", "name": "Devon Toews", "score": 47.00528847870102, "components": { "Goal model": 23.571428571428573, "SOG model": 47.857142857142854, "Unit attack": 95.65217391304348, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 23.571428571428573, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 41.86666666666667, "Goalie H2H": 47.07149009474591 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3336113755596957, "unitPlayers": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 71 } }, { "id": "8478047", "name": "Michael Bunting", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.25, "priorSOG": 1.7027027027027026, "currentTOI": 11.420833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.764583333333333, "ppShare": 0.35738498789346246, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5375, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.25 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.797, "currentIXG": 0.099625, "priorTOI": 14.441441441441443, "priorPPTOI": 1.7554054054054056, "deploymentChange": -3.02060810810811, "ppTOIChange": -0.21790540540540548, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020908", "date": "20260205", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020713", "date": "20260111", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020893", "date": "20250222", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020729", "date": "20250118", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020221", "date": "20241108", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.283333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11727732905706503, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 291.0, "goalExpected": 0.17513969067963334, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17513969067963334, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16066023536256183, "goalProbability": 0.16066023536256183, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.4933806225618722, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.608491572434393, "Current_PP_SOG60": 19.51219512195122, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.764583333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.35738498789346246, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8679322033898305, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9933397555142174, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 738.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2065.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.949040370615487, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.237875288683602, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.251351351351351, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.36341350355118385, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9915590863952334, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0461263476733345, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9208004626560166, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0372960855529538, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9538749501118008, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.5, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.51219512195122, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020908", "date": "20260205", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.95 }, { "gameId": "2025020713", "date": "20260111", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020893", "date": "20250222", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020729", "date": "20250118", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020221", "date": "20241108", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Michael Bunting", "Sean Couturier", "Noel Acciari" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 189, "fitPct": 1.5375449224444822, "index": 101.53754492244448, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 38.042328042328045, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.13756613756614, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.37037037037037, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.61904761904762, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.29100529100529, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.53968253968254, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 33, "fitPct": -2.6399845781327826, "index": 97.36001542186722, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.424242424242422, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.484848484848486, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 63.75757575757576, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.90909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4242424242424243, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.5375449224444822, "zonePPFit": -2.6399845781327826, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.357410677927545, "attemptProjection": 1.4719437017889607, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 4687.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.764583333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.46881342582775437, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 738.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.8679322033898305, "projectedAttempts": 0.7593220338983051, "onNet": 0.5705266353012597, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8844728376339412, "ppAdjusted": 0.5302043522243114, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4146771898582529, "baseline": 1.7027027027027026, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478047", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020908", "date": "20260205", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5298873949960328, "adjustedSOG": 1.5238577781243594, "reductionPct": 0.3941216125706415, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8844728376339412, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8837181045886939, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8844728376339412, "afterRecentZones": 0.8840906816235756, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8840906816235756, "adjusted": 0.883336274677398, "playerFactor": 0.9991466860109958, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0461263476733345, "newChartFactor": 1.0450985897633012, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 49.13333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.993682157394844, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1686511240632804, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5302043522243114, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5302043522243114, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5212915537280659, "afterRecentZones": 0.5302043522243114, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5212915537280659, "adjusted": 0.5212915537280659, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 0.9208004626560166, "newChartFactor": 0.9208004626560166, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.033333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.748815165876777, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5238577781243594, "adjustedSOG": 1.4933806225618722, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 68, "beforeSOG": 1.4933806225618722, "adjustedSOG": 1.4933806225618722 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.1795583358577332, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17756588956976857, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16436079820833224, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16666260057333349 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285543566131243, "modelSOG": 1.4933806225618722, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 74, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 33.0, "historyShots": 291.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1134020618556701, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11727732905706503, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 41.75, "btb": { "id": "8478047", "name": "Michael Bunting", "score": 41.75, "components": { "Goal model": 57.857142857142854, "SOG model": 52.142857142857146, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 35.714285714285715, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 60.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.3639372429327952, "unitPlayers": [ "Michael Bunting", "Sean Couturier", "Noel Acciari" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 93 } }, { "id": "8478136", "name": "Jacob Middleton", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 0.8266666666666667, "currentTOI": 17.89090909090909, "currentFiveTOI": 15.043939393939393, "ppShare": 0.02695871946082561, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09696969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.804, "currentIXG": 0.0730909090909091, "priorTOI": 17.50577777777778, "priorPPTOI": 0.01977777777777778, "deploymentChange": 0.38513131313131055, "ppTOIChange": 0.07719191919191919, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020871", "date": "20260131", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020552", "date": "20251220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020418", "date": "20251202", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020706", "date": "20250115", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020467", "date": "20241212", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 0.6166666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.061916835686978575, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 171.0, "goalExpected": 0.05734219410777887, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.060755201733080536, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05572910986008958, "goalProbability": 0.05894642013313831, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.321731027304873, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9261163538407087, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2631684963238996, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.043939393939393, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02695871946082561, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09495119688885485, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2727272727272727, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.01231993739639, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 64.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.1132739212007503, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.160888888888888, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003748475159546463, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0471380471380471, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9254080804664107, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.969030010185366, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.4248437075292197, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020871", "date": "20260131", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.7 }, { "gameId": "2025020552", "date": "20251220", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020418", "date": "20251202", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 19.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020706", "date": "20250115", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020467", "date": "20241212", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 0.6166666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020315", "date": "20241121", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jacob Middleton", "Zach Whitecloud" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 93, "fitPct": -2.486397317786313, "index": 97.51360268221369, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.10339123242349, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.101736972704714, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.811414392059552, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.40281224152192, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.1505376344086025, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.43010752688172044, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.486397317786313, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0655700083334811, "attemptProjection": 1.0377035786019388, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 9929.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.043939393939393, "projectedAttempts": 1.9090909090909087, "onNet": 0.4065054582675269, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 64.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09495119688885485, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7789095207404374, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.2727272727272727 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.05163679346771, "baseline": 0.8266666666666667, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478136", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020173", "date": "20251030", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9616487427472926, "adjustedSOG": 0.9450166875925599, "reductionPct": 1.7295353714306683, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7789095207404374, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7735978301438408, "afterRecentDefense": 0.761007232235664, "afterRecentZones": 0.7741399235774656, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7563472584656402, "adjusted": 0.7511894288158826, "playerFactor": 0.9931806064052892, "defenseFactor": 0.9770162155833513, "oldChartFactor": 0.9254080804664107, "newChartFactor": 0.9142739083110489, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9588295886177816, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8945910632623657, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.0666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9450166875925599, "adjustedSOG": 0.9261163538407087, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 119, "beforeSOG": 0.9261163538407087, "adjustedSOG": 0.9261163538407087 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 11.0, "goalHistoryShots": 171.0, "goalExpected": 0.06637366171137896, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06637366171137896, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06421886662461147, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057794624711711914, "modelSOG": 0.9261163538407087, "historyGames": 153, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 75, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 11.0, "historyShots": 171.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06432748538011696, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.061916835686978575, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 32.73382932720841, "btb": { "id": "8478136", "name": "Jacob Middleton", "score": 32.73382932720841, "components": { "Goal model": 13.571428571428571, "SOG model": 15.714285714285714, "Unit attack": 26.08695652173913, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 18.571428571428573, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 38.15, "Goalie H2H": 50.1139990880073 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0532240515088933, "unitPlayers": [ "Jacob Middleton", "Zach Whitecloud" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 118 } }, { "id": "8478178", "name": "Darren Raddysh", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 2.2857142857142856, "priorSOG": 2.904109589041096, "currentTOI": 23.714285714285715, "currentFiveTOI": 17.979761904761904, "ppShare": 0.7763925729442971, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 32.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4845238095238096, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.29 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.311, "currentIXG": 0.09364285714285714, "priorTOI": 22.69178082191781, "priorPPTOI": 3.5289954337899543, "deploymentChange": 1.0225048923679054, "ppTOIChange": -0.044471624266144705, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021139", "date": "20260326", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 26.75 }, { "gameId": "2025021076", "date": "20260317", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020909", "date": "20250223", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07470015153741075, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 352.0, "goalExpected": 0.1805878734941521, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1805878734941521, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16522067750204372, "goalProbability": 0.16522067750204372, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.4175034424623822, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.243991260014567, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.609497779296207, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.979761904761904, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7763925729442971, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.215790308829102, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.21428571428571427, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0064482949600444, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2927.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.678143892380991, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.946496732871838, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.10753424657534, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6966240384467411, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1212121212121213, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1472525512334462, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.89502714815134, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.362369337979095, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021139", "date": "20260326", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 26.75 }, { "gameId": "2025021076", "date": "20260317", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020909", "date": "20250223", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020488", "date": "20241214", "team": "TBL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jake McCabe", "Darren Raddysh" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 33, "priorAttempts": 213, "fitPct": 8.511720481986515, "index": 108.51172048198652, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 71.80537772087068, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 150 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.132735808792147, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.32650448143406, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.126760563380282, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.48186086214255, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.126760563380282, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": 4.908418374448203, "index": 104.9084183744482, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 88.05405405405405, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.1621621621621623, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.1621621621621623, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.621621621621621, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.511720481986515, "zonePPFit": 4.908418374448203, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.5520834122773777, "attemptProjection": 2.437522759394036, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 52.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 15103.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.979761904761904, "projectedAttempts": 3.7142857142857144, "onNet": 0.4104106621273962, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2927.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.215790308829102, "projectedAttempts": 1.0547176960970064, "onNet": 0.419631093544137, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7667032125819717, "ppAdjusted": 0.5138141589680205, "other": 0.21428571428571427 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.4948030858357066, "baseline": 2.904109589041096, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478178", "goals": 0, "sog": 10, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 11, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021139", "date": "20260326", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025021076", "date": "20260317", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.658525687117862, "adjustedSOG": 2.652516395065155, "reductionPct": 0.22603851758234983, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7667032125819717, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7588927402320482, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7644884066741011, "afterRecentZones": 1.7667032125819717, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7644884066741011, "adjusted": 1.7566877258274594, "playerFactor": 0.9955790693681319, "defenseFactor": 0.9987463622117753, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 89.33333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9753659586681974, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9941323514003023, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5138141589680205, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5138141589680205, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5138141589680205, "afterRecentZones": 0.5138141589680205, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5138141589680205, "adjusted": 0.5138141589680205, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1472525512334462, "newChartFactor": 1.1472525512334462, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.916666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4162903225806451, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.652516395065155, "adjustedSOG": 2.599466067163852, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 11, "beforeSOG": 2.599466067163852, "adjustedSOG": 2.4175034424623822 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 349.0, "goalExpected": 0.18059293009133046, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17852482662030408, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16522489863413814, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17281877041936122 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05764468494909658, "modelSOG": 2.4175034424623822, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 73, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 352.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07954545454545454, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07470015153741075, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.386853002070396, "btb": { "id": "8478178", "name": "Darren Raddysh", "score": 45.386853002070396, "components": { "Goal model": 59.285714285714285, "SOG model": 92.85714285714286, "Unit attack": 39.130434782608695, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 4.166666666666667, "Shot quality": 21.428571428571427, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.42857142857143, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3822171445237577, "unitPlayers": [ "Jake McCabe", "Darren Raddysh" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 10, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 74 } }, { "id": "8478399", "name": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.25, "priorSOG": 0.7317073170731707, "currentTOI": 19.543055555555558, "currentFiveTOI": 17.208333333333332, "ppShare": 0.02490096208262592, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.12222222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.38899999999999996, "currentIXG": 0.03241666666666666, "priorTOI": 19.478048780487807, "priorPPTOI": 0.03882113821138211, "deploymentChange": 0.06500677506775077, "ppTOIChange": 0.0834010840108401, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03624468113881306, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.01784061258979159, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.018160523210120252, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01768241106210162, "goalProbability": 0.017996614630129616, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.03142035680279952, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.49222705316302956, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.8716707021791767, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.208333333333332, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02490096208262592, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1182104005533547, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9969135802469136, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 88.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.472878866834052, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.161788617886177, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.010009328064898175, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0101010101010102, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0256093434937028, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.035969033832023, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.7970773829292593, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 22.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.7 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jonas Siegenthaler", "Dougie Hamilton" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": 0.8536447831234284, "index": 100.85364478312343, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 49.4059405940594, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.584158415841582, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.9603960396039604, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.881188118811881, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.98019801980198, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1881188118811883, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8536447831234284, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.2589922584580057, "attemptProjection": 0.442138576059444, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 12390.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.208333333333332, "projectedAttempts": 1.0833333333333333, "onNet": 0.36288710376181604, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 88.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1182104005533547, "projectedAttempts": 0.0805980003772873, "onNet": 0.40579710144927533, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.33483074648074285, "ppAdjusted": 0.01573467077798203, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.35056541725872487, "baseline": 0.7317073170731707, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478399", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5030221771845031, "adjustedSOG": 0.5022725032275812, "reductionPct": 0.14903397721308664, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.33483074648074285, "afterPlayerForm": 0.33483074648074285, "afterRecentDefense": 0.33483074648074285, "afterRecentZones": 0.3335812898858729, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3335812898858729, "adjusted": 0.3335812898858729, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0256093434937028, "newChartFactor": 1.0157136472623325, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 91.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0404769902586495, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3247605265715614, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.01573467077798203, "afterPlayerForm": 0.01573467077798203, "afterRecentDefense": 0.01573467077798203, "afterRecentZones": 0.01573467077798203, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.01573467077798203, "adjusted": 0.01573467077798203, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.1333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2941176470588234, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.5022725032275812, "adjustedSOG": 0.49222705316302956, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 139, "beforeSOG": 0.49222705316302956, "adjustedSOG": 0.49222705316302956 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.016288220369604582, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.016168537940463606, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.016156284612354844, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.011775585226533533 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057926064448448084, "modelSOG": 0.49222705316302956, "historyGames": 149, "seasonGames": { "2024": 55, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 115.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.017391304347826087, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03624468113881306, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 26.997337662337664, "btb": { "id": "8478399", "name": "Jonas Siegenthaler", "score": 26.997337662337664, "components": { "Goal model": 0.0, "SOG model": 1.4285714285714286, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 5.0, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 36.4, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.4760531276360567, "unitPlayers": [ "Jonas Siegenthaler", "Dougie Hamilton" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 139 } }, { "id": "8478402", "name": "Connor McDavid", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 3.7439024390243905, "currentTOI": 23.880555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 17.17361111111111, "ppShare": 0.7369489559164734, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 30.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.529166666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.234, "currentIXG": 0.43616666666666665, "priorTOI": 22.99329268292683, "priorPPTOI": 3.451626016260163, "deploymentChange": 0.8872628726287282, "ppTOIChange": 0.07754065040650371, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 26.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 14.0, "toi": 26.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 20.45 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 6.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.545454545454545, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14982572241404316, "goalHistoryGoals": 82.0, "goalHistoryShots": 533.0, "goalExpected": 0.4331127566637723, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.425979355825371, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.35151263358956913, "goalProbability": 0.34687017469233045, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4642458897238688, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.890777028705831, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.240598463404772, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.500590318772137, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.17361111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7369489559164734, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.647711233565352, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 1.0024035877344022, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2541.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.736389684813753, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.899187374867507, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.308130081300813, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8474982283484217, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0631045012585125, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.168339229896858, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9380208699152497, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9391929535355326, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.8422590068159685, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.993340732519423, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 6.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 26.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 14.0, "toi": 26.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 20.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 26.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 20.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Vasily Podkolzin", "Connor McDavid", "Leon Draisaitl" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 266, "fitPct": 5.611307663228601, "index": 105.6113076632286, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.362842590346835, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.570943487751638, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.18894009216589, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 95 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.067669172932331, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.618481688091196, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.1911229687121025, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 98, "fitPct": -2.065971002825009, "index": 97.93402899717499, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.8163265306122449, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.53061224489796, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.95918367346939, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 39.6734693877551, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 14.448979591836736, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.611307663228601, "zonePPFit": -2.065971002825009, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.7103702036028783, "attemptProjection": 2.9232707444862243, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 43.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 12365.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.17361111111111, "projectedAttempts": 3.583333333333333, "onNet": 0.46622373207467754, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2541.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.647711233565352, "projectedAttempts": 1.2058549532447445, "onNet": 0.5004656003505696, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.758891299726494, "ppAdjusted": 0.5579291743180573, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.816820474044551, "baseline": 3.7439024390243905, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478402", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "attempts": 9 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.1876532600364866, "adjustedSOG": 3.1083623964578826, "reductionPct": 2.4874369045300937, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.758891299726494, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7209662650273265, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6966274255856018, "afterRecentZones": 1.7560421373893336, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.693879122173149, "adjusted": 1.6573558734114993, "playerFactor": 0.9784381020560708, "defenseFactor": 0.9646004991038535, "oldChartFactor": 1.168339229896858, "newChartFactor": 1.164479765397323, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.26666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8787108923907829, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8317397001751148, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5579291743180573, "afterPlayerForm": 0.527313161335378, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5579291743180573, "afterRecentZones": 0.5579291743180573, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5579291743180573, "adjusted": 0.527313161335378, "playerFactor": 0.9451256281407036, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9380208699152497, "newChartFactor": 0.9380208699152497, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.166666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6660550458715596, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.1083623964578826, "adjustedSOG": 3.1083623964578826, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 7, "beforeSOG": 3.1083623964578826, "adjustedSOG": 2.890777028705831 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 82.0, "goalHistoryShots": 531.0, "goalExpected": 0.41374422408469413, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.413839496120948, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3388299589871389, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.006298801557141909 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12839682288089327, "modelSOG": 2.890777028705831, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 82.0, "historyShots": 533.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.15384615384615385, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14982572241404316, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 71.05917599641738, "btb": { "id": "8478402", "name": "Connor McDavid", "score": 71.05917599641738, "components": { "Goal model": 97.14285714285714, "SOG model": 95.71428571428571, "Unit attack": 93.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 66.66666666666667, "Shot quality": 95.0, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 60.53333333333333, "Goalie H2H": 43.10344827586207 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3642313805252755, "unitPlayers": [ "Vasily Podkolzin", "Connor McDavid", "Leon Draisaitl" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 4 } }, { "id": "8478407", "name": "Vince Dunn", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.8333333333333333, "priorSOG": 2.2098765432098766, "currentTOI": 23.45, "currentFiveTOI": 18.379166666666666, "ppShare": 0.4961447212336892, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.323611111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.548, "currentIXG": 0.129, "priorTOI": 21.662345679012347, "priorPPTOI": 2.5703703703703704, "deploymentChange": 1.7876543209876523, "ppTOIChange": -0.24675925925925934, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06797211750271663, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 338.0, "goalExpected": 0.14237448159184676, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14033604079853415, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13270359087486022, "goalProbability": 0.1309338553568758, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17697355179844276, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.0946012397827167, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.9925187032418954, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.910938433950987, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.379166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4961447212336892, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.606827056148675, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4166666666666667, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0193427190652695, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1673.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.974817555761127, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.39193083573487, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.016666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6174491110091214, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1466049382716048, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.066776343158861, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0142753050972193, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.5679893000445833, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.81081081081081, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.4 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 24.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Vince Dunn", "Adam Larsson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": 9.361368265461778, "index": 109.36136826546178, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 77.6219512195122, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 103 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.4390243902439024, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.2195121951219512, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.01829268292683, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.725609756097561, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.975609756097561, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 57, "fitPct": 2.225878105295365, "index": 102.22587810529537, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 81.52882205513785, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.974937343358397, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.390977443609022, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.105263157894737, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 9.361368265461778, "zonePPFit": 2.225878105295365, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0397840271623338, "attemptProjection": 2.0158635704392145, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 13233.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.379166666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.166666666666667, "onNet": 0.4060774675920317, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1673.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.606827056148675, "projectedAttempts": 1.589338671411625, "onNet": 0.39844256975989617, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0016458731995546, "ppAdjusted": 0.6095112589345528, "other": 0.4166666666666667 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.027823798800774, "baseline": 2.2098765432098766, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478407", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.100644896564415, "adjustedSOG": 2.0946012397827167, "reductionPct": 0.2877048277689753, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0016458731995546, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9915731118967239, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0016458731995546, "afterRecentZones": 1.0016458731995546, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0016458731995546, "adjusted": 0.9915731118967239, "playerFactor": 0.98994378994379, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 89.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9440948589529558, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.231012787098876, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6095112589345528, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6095112589345528, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6095112589345528, "afterRecentZones": 0.6095112589345528, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6095112589345528, "adjusted": 0.6095112589345528, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.066776343158861, "newChartFactor": 1.066776343158861, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.566666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3298887122416534, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.0946012397827167, "adjustedSOG": 2.0946012397827167, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 33, "beforeSOG": 2.0946012397827167, "adjustedSOG": 2.0946012397827167 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 24.0, "goalHistoryShots": 333.0, "goalExpected": 0.1211108424896169, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11499890218894057, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11406424517435981, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5431367633339096 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057717874661898864, "modelSOG": 2.0946012397827167, "historyGames": 155, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 81, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 24.0, "historyShots": 338.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07100591715976332, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06797211750271663, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 46.24292053132801, "btb": { "id": "8478407", "name": "Vince Dunn", "score": 46.24292053132801, "components": { "Goal model": 45.0, "SOG model": 80.0, "Unit attack": 8.695652173913043, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50.0, "Shot quality": 39.285714285714285, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 58.400000000000006, "Goalie H2H": 47.41602067183462 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9711013798234664, "unitPlayers": [ "Vince Dunn", "Adam Larsson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 72 } }, { "id": "8478414", "name": "Timo Meier", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 3.8333333333333335, "priorSOG": 3.4935064935064934, "currentTOI": 16.31111111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 13.730555555555556, "ppShare": 0.29626485568760613, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 46.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.4541666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.921, "currentIXG": 0.32675, "priorTOI": 18.516233766233768, "priorPPTOI": 1.8686147186147186, "deploymentChange": -2.2051226551226577, "ppTOIChange": -0.414448051948052, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 16.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.8 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.166666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09765957181480765, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 554.0, "goalExpected": 0.312850123668661, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3184600250455906, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26864048216351766, "goalProbability": 0.27273185011436313, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.40913679508454703, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 3.203476298891831, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.109447703823589, "Current_PP_SOG60": 27.507163323782233, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.730555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.29626485568760613, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4064351065836633, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9708404802744426, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1047.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.710013276500593, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 20.016216842349124, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.488095238095237, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4817884948058617, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9014173512683941, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0600094015732813, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1424125492295247, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9555108670857827, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 14.33475216257037, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 29.508196721311474, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 8.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 8.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 16.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 14.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 16.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 55, "priorAttempts": 321, "fitPct": 2.000313385776039, "index": 102.00031338577604, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.022090059473236, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.435853865760409, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.103653355989803, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 84 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.692155196828093, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 61 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.762673463608042, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.9835740583404124, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 67, "fitPct": 4.747084974317488, "index": 104.74708497431749, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.91542288557214, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.109452736318406, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.980099502487562, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.582089552238806, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 36.21890547263681, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1940298507462688, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.000313385776039, "zonePPFit": 4.747084974317488, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.7747008713950576, "attemptProjection": 3.718565186877124, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 70.0, "sog": 36.0, "seconds": 9886.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.730555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 5.833333333333334, "onNet": 0.5078473842052649, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 1047.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4064351065836633, "projectedAttempts": 0.805980003772873, "onNet": 0.5896494156928214, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.9805806247715583, "ppAdjusted": 0.5993857376978662, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.746633029136091, "baseline": 3.4935064935064934, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478414", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.645382414884252, "adjustedSOG": 3.514896092705542, "reductionPct": 3.579496122160697, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.9805806247715583, "afterPlayerForm": 2.9805806247715583, "afterRecentDefense": 2.7667044692985643, "afterRecentZones": 2.9805806247715583, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.7667044692985643, "adjusted": 2.7667044692985643, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9282434591114656, "oldChartFactor": 1.0600094015732813, "newChartFactor": 1.0600094015732813, "playerRecentAttempts": 32.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 69.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0809170738374279, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6600723181175374, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5993857376978662, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5980771850243967, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5993857376978662, "afterRecentZones": 0.5970882263871449, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5970882263871449, "adjusted": 0.5957846895396767, "playerFactor": 0.9978168438266558, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1424125492295247, "newChartFactor": 1.1353331154398245, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.383333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9724458204334364, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.514896092705542, "adjustedSOG": 3.4445981708514313, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 5, "beforeSOG": 3.4445981708514313, "adjustedSOG": 3.203476298891831 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 554.0, "goalExpected": 0.31284671240236206, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.31054798033467995, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26863798729718674, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.16831391134458085 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12869359966884208, "modelSOG": 3.203476298891831, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 77, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 554.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09205776173285199, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09765957181480765, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.72876623376624, "btb": { "id": "8478414", "name": "Timo Meier", "score": 60.72876623376624, "components": { "Goal model": 90.0, "SOG model": 97.14285714285714, "Unit attack": 86.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 33.333333333333336, "Shot quality": 87.85714285714286, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 40.8, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.222591776725312, "unitPlayers": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 31 } }, { "id": "8478439", "name": "Travis Konecny", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 2.1948051948051948, "currentTOI": 16.81, "currentFiveTOI": 12.690000000000001, "ppShare": 0.582853486884197, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0366666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.077, "currentIXG": 0.21539999999999998, "priorTOI": 19.09004329004329, "priorPPTOI": 2.615367965367965, "deploymentChange": -2.2800432900432916, "ppTOIChange": 0.4212987012987015, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.5 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.3 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1373074693979043, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 365.0, "goalExpected": 0.27315660782210266, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27315660782210266, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2390263961221569, "goalProbability": 0.2390263961221569, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.9893790849099413, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.7281323877068555, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.903402854006586, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.690000000000001, "Current_PP_Share": 0.582853486884197, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0463808914480697, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0484552293030407, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 911.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1563.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.442280447977094, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.34229909790615, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.514502164502163, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.614217473823385, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0541784025405523, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0115959669322216, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0479317633132457, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.7281323877068555, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.903402854006586, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 22.5 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.583333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": 1.8059467513517404, "index": 101.80594675135174, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.23563218390805, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.396551724137929, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 18.764367816091955, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.408045977011493, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.856321839080458, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.339080459770114, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 0.38653223107405665, "index": 100.38653223107406, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 63.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.6000000000000005, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.8059467513517404, "zonePPFit": 0.38653223107405665, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7705136288867993, "attemptProjection": 2.0877751614762476, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3807.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.690000000000001, "projectedAttempts": 2.4000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4855198936569625, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 911.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0463808914480697, "projectedAttempts": 1.20383877159309, "onNet": 0.4909888658237403, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1907725556986581, "ppAdjusted": 0.5383718394828655, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9291443951815235, "baseline": 2.1948051948051948, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478439", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.035408715030992, "adjustedSOG": 2.029978658071369, "reductionPct": 0.2667796850590043, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1907725556986581, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1907725556986581, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1907725556986581, "afterRecentZones": 1.1907725556986581, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1907725556986581, "adjusted": 1.1907725556986581, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0541784025405523, "newChartFactor": 1.0541784025405523, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0410397944241867, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5383718394828655, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5383718394828655, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5293217445501597, "afterRecentZones": 0.5383718394828655, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5293217445501597, "adjusted": 0.5293217445501597, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1.0115959669322216, "newChartFactor": 1.0115959669322216, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.029978658071369, "adjustedSOG": 1.9893790849099413, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.9893790849099413, "adjustedSOG": 1.9893790849099413 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 365.0, "goalExpected": 0.2645698940035369, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.26163412774854, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2324639991712001, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.22566171201613694 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847973270025498, "modelSOG": 1.9893790849099413, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 77, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 365.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13972602739726028, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1373074693979043, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478440", "name": "Dylan Strome", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.4, "priorSOG": 1.7875, "currentTOI": 17.386666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 13.086666666666668, "ppShare": 0.599930483142162, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8766666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.017, "currentIXG": 0.40170000000000006, "priorTOI": 18.037708333333335, "priorPPTOI": 2.926875, "deploymentChange": -0.6510416666666679, "ppTOIChange": -0.05020833333333341, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15309964758246664, "goalHistoryGoals": 51.0, "goalHistoryShots": 317.0, "goalExpected": 0.3202912523306927, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3202912523306927, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.27406242472992065, "goalProbability": 0.27406242472992065, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.092044347510133, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.335710646968925, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.600231749710312, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.086666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.599930483142162, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2038430408659817, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 0.9970876670412914, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1726.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.951264725228727, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.481101857783472, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.935833333333331, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6688632753351229, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.049749575172167, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0434376607070404, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8654171234741463, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0953482410458555, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8752779246087838, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.98404255319149, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.81893313298272, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.783333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Tuch", "Dylan Strome", "Jordan Kyrou" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 133, "fitPct": 1.4479220235680117, "index": 101.44792202356801, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.28844839371155, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.68079289131921, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.888585099111413, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.189336978810662, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.238550922761449, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": -4.486095884195123, "index": 95.51390411580488, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.15686274509804, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.254901960784313, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 43.13725490196079, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.5686274509803921, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.52941176470588, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705888, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.4479220235680117, "zonePPFit": -4.486095884195123, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.534936268398872, "attemptProjection": 2.278315239053017, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 7852.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.086666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 2.8000000000000003, "onNet": 0.530241116448013, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 1726.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2038430408659817, "projectedAttempts": 1.2251079994041412, "onNet": 0.5414721052858436, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6565854241705216, "ppAdjusted": 0.6500403295554229, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.406625753725945, "baseline": 1.7875, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478440", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.158975452235567, "adjustedSOG": 2.092044347510133, "reductionPct": 3.1001327345398177, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6565854241705216, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6565854241705216, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5682685065019455, "afterRecentZones": 1.6457888069665683, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5580474853033586, "adjusted": 1.5580474853033586, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9466873748977975, "oldChartFactor": 1.0434376607070404, "newChartFactor": 1.0305814787907694, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.38333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1464261380227767, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7478946195976414, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6500403295554229, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6370264272135302, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6500403295554229, "afterRecentZones": 0.6500403295554229, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6500403295554229, "adjusted": 0.6370264272135302, "playerFactor": 0.9799798539410728, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8654171234741463, "newChartFactor": 0.8654171234741463, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.083333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8669010547463586, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.092044347510133, "adjustedSOG": 2.092044347510133, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 35, "beforeSOG": 2.092044347510133, "adjustedSOG": 2.092044347510133 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 312.0, "goalExpected": 0.3111075176910887, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32213593779140687, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26736489959987547, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8035417246075982 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284255304188859, "modelSOG": 2.092044347510133, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 51.0, "historyShots": 317.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1608832807570978, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15309964758246664, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.69047619047619, "btb": { "id": "8478440", "name": "Dylan Strome", "score": 67.69047619047619, "components": { "Goal model": 90.71428571428571, "SOG model": 78.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 96.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 92.85714285714286, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 27.77777777777778, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3892961896127733, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Tuch", "Dylan Strome", "Jordan Kyrou" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 9 } }, { "id": "8478454", "name": "Noah Juulsen", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.5, "currentTOI": 10.625, "currentFiveTOI": 10.4625, "ppShare": 0.005204163330664532, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.027083333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.166, "currentIXG": 0.02075, "priorTOI": 13.81602564102564, "priorPPTOI": 0.005769230769230769, "deploymentChange": -3.1910256410256395, "ppTOIChange": 0.021314102564102565, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020159", "date": "20241030", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04350705320915761, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 56.0, "goalExpected": 0.018746929407264835, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.019405228115745417, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.018572298692079894, "goalProbability": 0.01921815867259844, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.06458599805185469, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.43089402808183924, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.867383512544803, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.4625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.005204163330664532, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02386325727248465, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.0019232912258917, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2498.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.262550082488805, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.239423076923078, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.001354900111916952, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9298540965207632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9655798888398368, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8978484151557854, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.867383512544803, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020159", "date": "20241030", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.766666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": -1.1473370386721058, "index": 98.8526629613279, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 83.63636363636364, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.727272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.1473370386721058, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4489242075778927, "attemptProjection": 0.3207225526949048, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 5022.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.4625, "projectedAttempts": 0.875, "onNet": 0.4186296059121826, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02386325727248465, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3848233801363987, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.3848233801363987, "baseline": 0.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478454", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.43089402808183924, "adjustedSOG": 0.43089402808183924, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.3848233801363987, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3848233801363987, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3848233801363987, "afterRecentZones": 0.3848233801363987, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3848233801363987, "adjusted": 0.3848233801363987, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9655798888398368, "newChartFactor": 0.9655798888398368, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 46.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2926640926640927, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0391569742827893, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.43089402808183924, "adjustedSOG": 0.43089402808183924, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.43089402808183924, "adjustedSOG": 0.43089402808183924 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 56.0, "goalExpected": 0.020810042844955585, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.020810042844955585, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.020595008113814716, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05787100300628587, "modelSOG": 0.43089402808183924, "historyGames": 95, "seasonGames": { "2024": 35, "2025": 52, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 56.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.017857142857142856, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04350705320915761, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8478458", "name": "Jack Roslovic", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 2.7142857142857144, "priorSOG": 2.0434782608695654, "currentTOI": 16.597619047619048, "currentFiveTOI": 14.808333333333334, "ppShare": 0.2620689655172414, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 38.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.176190476190476, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.71 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.725, "currentIXG": 0.26607142857142857, "priorTOI": 15.770048309178746, "priorPPTOI": 1.1016908212560386, "deploymentChange": 0.8275707384403024, "ppTOIChange": 0.07449965493443744, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021187", "date": "20260331", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020139", "date": "20251025", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020401", "date": "20241203", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.14556292500822035, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 318.0, "goalExpected": 0.3296521262183821, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3296521262183821, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28082612834448767, "goalProbability": 0.28082612834448767, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.2646709400746494, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.392957633250262, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.574898785425102, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.808333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2620689655172414, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0854802955665026, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.35714285714285715, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0110574188607588, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 988.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.628152969894223, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.471607103705328, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.24927536231884, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.27050468816834733, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0846698211967674, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1678082717688039, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1153482115388746, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.504519309778143, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 16.363636363636363, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021187", "date": "20260331", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020139", "date": "20251025", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020401", "date": "20241203", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020135", "date": "20241026", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gavin McKenna", "Auston Matthews", "Jack Roslovic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 41, "priorAttempts": 191, "fitPct": 5.593609058960126, "index": 105.59360905896013, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.225513982888522, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.599795683820712, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.93295875367131, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.926956965904738, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.550249010343506, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.764525603371217, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": 3.8449403846291546, "index": 103.84494038462915, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.79503105590062, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 42.98136645962733, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.267080745341616, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.593609058960126, "zonePPFit": 3.8449403846291546, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.0425170519136038, "attemptProjection": 2.8370948072689406, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 49.0, "sog": 29.0, "seconds": 12439.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.808333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 3.5, "onNet": 0.5448655162084018, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 988.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0854802955665026, "projectedAttempts": 0.5273588480485033, "onNet": 0.5410166369236084, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.2708644933649245, "ppAdjusted": 0.3117985790834906, "other": 0.35714285714285715 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.939805929591272, "baseline": 2.0434782608695654, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8478458", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.58127486210259, "adjustedSOG": 2.484826574582674, "reductionPct": 3.7364594114302707, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.2708644933649245, "afterPlayerForm": 2.255627153639307, "afterRecentDefense": 2.148324206290016, "afterRecentZones": 2.2708644933649245, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.1483242062900163, "adjusted": 2.1339091032014554, "playerFactor": 0.9932900709090577, "defenseFactor": 0.9460380452321352, "oldChartFactor": 1.1678082717688039, "newChartFactor": 1.1678082717688039, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.61666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9586297582521326, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7474312027727088, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3117985790834906, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2880068233804339, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3117985790834906, "afterRecentZones": 0.3117985790834906, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3117985790834906, "adjusted": 0.2880068233804339, "playerFactor": 0.9236951118475559, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1153482115388746, "newChartFactor": 1.1153482115388746, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.116666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.484826574582674, "adjustedSOG": 2.4351300430910205, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 16, "beforeSOG": 2.4351300430910205, "adjustedSOG": 2.2646709400746494 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 48.0, "goalHistoryShots": 317.0, "goalExpected": 0.3490784670306036, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34508091081972947, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2946622176628637, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2825270759456766 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845302653436108, "modelSOG": 2.2646709400746494, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 69, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 48.0, "historyShots": 318.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1509433962264151, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.14556292500822035, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.84761904761905, "btb": { "id": "8478458", "name": "Jack Roslovic", "score": 57.84761904761905, "components": { "Goal model": 91.42857142857143, "SOG model": 89.28571428571429, "Unit attack": 56.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 4.166666666666667, "Shot quality": 81.42857142857143, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 39.14285714285714, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4823855602987623, "unitPlayers": [ "Gavin McKenna", "Auston Matthews", "Jack Roslovic" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 42 } }, { "id": "8478462", "name": "Nicolas Roy", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "priorSOG": 1.027027027027027, "currentTOI": 11.68611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 10.455555555555556, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.67 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.69, "currentIXG": 0.2816666666666667, "priorTOI": 14.45945945945946, "priorPPTOI": 0.8202702702702703, "deploymentChange": -2.7733483483483496, "ppTOIChange": -0.8202702702702703, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020971", "date": "20260304", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020617", "date": "20251230", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020098", "date": "20251021", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020966", "date": "20250302", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020863", "date": "20250206", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.083333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1291856606508571, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 193.0, "goalExpected": 0.16636539253718605, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17220731580173165, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15326321364481715, "goalProbability": 0.15819536432601145, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.49321506811942917, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.2878007644115592, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.607863974495217, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.455555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 0.9872883796894324, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1891.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.7032803748999887, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 18.780889621087315, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.822972972972973, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.14974142030593643, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9603031698840081, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9031335834735341, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8672820430383382, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.607863974495217, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020971", "date": "20260304", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020617", "date": "20251230", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020098", "date": "20251021", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020966", "date": "20250302", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020863", "date": "20250206", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.216666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nicolas Roy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 92, "fitPct": -3.228880550882195, "index": 96.7711194491178, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.608695652173914, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 33.913043478260875, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.95652173913044, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8695652173913043, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.782608695652172, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8695652173913043, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.228880550882195, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.467589731224174, "attemptProjection": 1.5473142747653363, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 3764.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.455555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 3.1666666666666665, "onNet": 0.4979537258397828, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3407853363280884, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5074520029947551, "baseline": 1.027027027027027, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478462", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020098", "date": "20251021", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3152820126076639, "adjustedSOG": 1.2878007644115592, "reductionPct": 2.089380675222696, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3407853363280884, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3401733337060104, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2955746221538837, "afterRecentZones": 1.3373585183532533, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2955746221538837, "adjusted": 1.294983256001247, "playerFactor": 0.9995435491383325, "defenseFactor": 0.9354553867176352, "oldChartFactor": 0.9031335834735341, "newChartFactor": 0.8983756166393047, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9967560410460112, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7016323446514028, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2878007644115592, "adjustedSOG": 1.2878007644115592, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 80, "beforeSOG": 1.2878007644115592, "adjustedSOG": 1.2878007644115592 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 193.0, "goalExpected": 0.1945870587285197, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1945870587285197, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1768254893893222, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851398570701128, "modelSOG": 1.2878007644115592, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 74, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 193.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12953367875647667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1291856606508571, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 54.04619808599973, "btb": { "id": "8478462", "name": "Nicolas Roy", "score": 54.04619808599973, "components": { "Goal model": 54.285714285714285, "SOG model": 43.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 73.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 77.85714285714286, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 59.199999999999996, "Goalie H2H": 50.227998176014594 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8451642466300844, "unitPlayers": [ "Gabriel Landeskog", "Brock Nelson", "Nicolas Roy" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 52 } }, { "id": "8478463", "name": "Anthony Beauvillier", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.8902439024390243, "currentTOI": 11.440000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 10.733333333333333, "ppShare": 0.02745915884602016, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.13166666666666665, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.416, "currentIXG": 0.1416, "priorTOI": 15.797154471544713, "priorPPTOI": 0.47865853658536583, "deploymentChange": -4.357154471544712, "ppTOIChange": -0.3469918699186992, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 9, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.071428571428571, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10619777006137603, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 313.0, "goalExpected": 0.13154484513509754, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13154484513509754, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12326004326562137, "goalProbability": 0.12326004326562137, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.2386780349443534, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.031055900621118, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.733333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02745915884602016, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.14664171508019266, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0000072876742885, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 79.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.153475912215369, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.286624203821656, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.808739837398374, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1093853056750304, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0626823276523873, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.056603323881948, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.122833679628118, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.53101594008066, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 5, "sogPerGame": 2.8 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020938", "date": "20250227", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020922", "date": "20250225", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020881", "date": "20250208", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 9.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 13.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020550", "date": "20241223", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Ovechkin", "Ilya Protas", "Anthony Beauvillier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 205, "fitPct": 1.886777462731601, "index": 101.8867774627316, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.938086303939961, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.206378986866792, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.87617260787992, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 79 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.864915572232647, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.328330206378986, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.786116322701688, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.886777462731601, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0105503116653063, "attemptProjection": 0.8359865742979252, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 6440.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.733333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.4, "onNet": 0.5328473969801825, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 79.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.14664171508019266, "projectedAttempts": 0.11137345449128556, "onNet": 0.49990934286528343, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8973462825564278, "ppAdjusted": 0.02592216042518801, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9232684429816158, "baseline": 1.8902439024390243, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478463", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.310058626764579, "adjustedSOG": 1.2386780349443534, "reductionPct": 5.448656293841802, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8973462825564278, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8570704635324913, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8176575477800289, "afterRecentZones": 0.894382022476934, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8149565284804603, "adjusted": 0.7783786295227182, "playerFactor": 0.9551167483424619, "defenseFactor": 0.9111951134969037, "oldChartFactor": 1.056603323881948, "newChartFactor": 1.0504046279502586, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.63333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.689035350509287, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.5800583885987179, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.02592216042518801, "afterPlayerForm": 0.02592216042518801, "afterRecentDefense": 0.02592216042518801, "afterRecentZones": 0.02592216042518801, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.02592216042518801, "adjusted": 0.02592216042518801, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.1833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1126760563380282, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2386780349443534, "adjustedSOG": 1.2386780349443534, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 90, "beforeSOG": 1.2386780349443534, "adjustedSOG": 1.2386780349443534 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 313.0, "goalExpected": 0.11327318035599854, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11728859029638276, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10709329777550632, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35781976749320044 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859679035348298, "modelSOG": 1.2386780349443534, "historyGames": 173, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 31.0, "historyShots": 313.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09904153354632587, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10619777006137603, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.41781954887218, "btb": { "id": "8478463", "name": "Anthony Beauvillier", "score": 44.41781954887218, "components": { "Goal model": 40.714285714285715, "SOG model": 36.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 40.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 45.714285714285715, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 72.54736842105262, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.32383253281599, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Ovechkin", "Ilya Protas", "Anthony Beauvillier" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 9, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 79 } }, { "id": "8478472", "name": "Mathieu Joseph", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.9166666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.7058823529411765, "currentTOI": 13.768055555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 12.362499999999999, "ppShare": 0.019721577726218097, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 51, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.09444444444444444, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.204, "currentIXG": 0.10033333333333333, "priorTOI": 11.987581699346405, "priorPPTOI": 0.03856209150326797, "deploymentChange": 1.7804738562091504, "ppTOIChange": 0.05588235294117647, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021310", "date": "20260416", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.55 }, { "gameId": "2025021133", "date": "20260324", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020023", "date": "20251011", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020713", "date": "20250116", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020700", "date": "20250114", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.816666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09656310957866508, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.08124559116697744, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07990746995205132, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07803276337146355, "goalProbability": 0.07679823366167568, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12345297097878655, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.8413729789924667, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.044489383215369, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.362499999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.019721577726218097, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.09761682954838406, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 1.0012772668533654, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 68.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.709482733241087, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.100326797385621, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009047817284211054, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0473353194306523, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1699821329105147, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.688856729377713, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021310", "date": "20260416", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.55 }, { "gameId": "2025021133", "date": "20260324", "team": "LAK", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020023", "date": "20251011", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020713", "date": "20250116", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020700", "date": "20250114", "team": "STL", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.816666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mathieu Joseph", "Jason Dickinson", "Isaac Howard" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 65, "fitPct": 5.666071097017152, "index": 105.66607109701715, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.45054945054945, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.65934065934066, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.824175824175823, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.549450549450547, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2307692307692308, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.666071097017152, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0416666666666665, "attemptProjection": 0.8798111135723994, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 8901.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.362499999999999, "projectedAttempts": 1.4166666666666665, "onNet": 0.5239139314437564, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 68.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.09761682954838406, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5099075297225891, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8774055567861996, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.960738890119533, "baseline": 0.7058823529411765, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 51, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478472", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8587962752481904, "adjustedSOG": 0.8413729789924667, "reductionPct": 2.0288043576677572, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8774055567861996, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8487012764821786, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8774055567861996, "afterRecentZones": 0.8770596951506893, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8770596951506893, "adjusted": 0.8483667296933266, "playerFactor": 0.9672850484225787, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1699821329105147, "newChartFactor": 1.1691376419178061, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.31666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7747680309176052, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0369741716468963, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.5166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8413729789924667, "adjustedSOG": 0.8413729789924667, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 125, "beforeSOG": 0.8413729789924667, "adjustedSOG": 0.8413729789924667 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.07566736789856787, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0756847916686123, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07287545333912361, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0016153864172543941 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857631668991656, "modelSOG": 0.8413729789924667, "historyGames": 123, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 51, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06896551724137931, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09656310957866508, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.58025974025974, "btb": { "id": "8478472", "name": "Mathieu Joseph", "score": 32.58025974025974, "components": { "Goal model": 22.857142857142858, "SOG model": 11.428571428571429, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 26.428571428571427, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 45.6, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 120 } }, { "id": "8478542", "name": "Evan Rodrigues", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.4166666666666667, "priorSOG": 2.318840579710145, "currentTOI": 15.505555555555555, "currentFiveTOI": 12.31111111111111, "ppShare": 0.32512733446519526, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 69, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.5958333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.978, "currentIXG": 0.16483333333333333, "priorTOI": 16.993236714975843, "priorPPTOI": 1.7734299516908212, "deploymentChange": -1.4876811594202888, "ppTOIChange": -0.17759661835748797, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020659", "date": "20260104", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020490", "date": "20251211", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020639", "date": "20250106", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020321", "date": "20241123", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.083333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09329941179193028, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 338.0, "goalExpected": 0.17331557103367584, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17642339547428534, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15912778194398502, "goalProbability": 0.16173700856543965, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.260922662145463, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.8576276924466781, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.6859205776173285, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.399477806788513, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.31111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.32512733446519526, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.5434517072250518, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 1.0177330048540136, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1149.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.902184166606197, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.335603377826205, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.314975845410629, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3468953000577017, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0968851379369222, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0584633563916361, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0806273414738243, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0942981921589119, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.084818684695759, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.1340206185567, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020659", "date": "20260104", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020490", "date": "20251211", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2024020639", "date": "20250106", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020321", "date": "20241123", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.066666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 185, "fitPct": 1.9487785463878708, "index": 101.94877854638787, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 21.72972972972973, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.708108108108108, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.713513513513515, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.086486486486486, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.06486486486487, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.6972972972972973, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24, "fitPct": 2.687578049127481, "index": 102.68757804912748, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.000000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.9487785463878708, "zonePPFit": 2.687578049127481, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.606261404980133, "attemptProjection": 1.7207223987109725, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8864.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.31111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 3.166666666666666, "onNet": 0.4472591713971024, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1149.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.5434517072250518, "projectedAttempts": 0.4835880022637238, "onNet": 0.5183892575435082, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4105921290763943, "ppAdjusted": 0.25289977276915854, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6634919018455527, "baseline": 2.318840579710145, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 69, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478542", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020490", "date": "20251211", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9256313729913896, "adjustedSOG": 1.895538461680284, "reductionPct": 1.5627555581605224, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4105921290763943, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3637980601628905, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4105921290763943, "afterRecentZones": 1.4105921290763943, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4105921290763943, "adjusted": 1.3637980601628905, "playerFactor": 0.9668266482217345, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0584633563916361, "newChartFactor": 1.0584633563916361, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7862123548435517, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1431555481815203, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.25289977276915854, "afterPlayerForm": 0.24967246969874612, "afterRecentDefense": 0.25289977276915854, "afterRecentZones": 0.25276456718318163, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.25276456718318163, "adjusted": 0.2495389894974858, "playerFactor": 0.9872388059701492, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0806273414738243, "newChartFactor": 1.0795229593242934, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8704545454545454, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.895538461680284, "adjustedSOG": 1.8576276924466781, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 44, "beforeSOG": 1.8576276924466781, "adjustedSOG": 1.8576276924466781 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 28.0, "goalHistoryShots": 336.0, "goalExpected": 0.15740400440996283, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15624743277863498, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14564117564847123, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09886988195111357 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1286514236486546, "modelSOG": 1.8576276924466781, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 69, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 28.0, "historyShots": 338.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08284023668639054, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09329941179193028, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.01942567086271, "btb": { "id": "8478542", "name": "Evan Rodrigues", "score": 43.01942567086271, "components": { "Goal model": 57.142857142857146, "SOG model": 69.28571428571429, "Unit attack": 26.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 33.333333333333336, "Shot quality": 52.857142857142854, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 40.0, "Goalie H2H": 48.74945151382185 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.222986033107045, "unitPlayers": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 85 } }, { "id": "8478569", "name": "Noel Acciari", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "priorSOG": 1.3880597014925373, "currentTOI": 13.869047619047619, "currentFiveTOI": 11.034523809523808, "ppShare": 0.0031317754757889667, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.015476190476190477, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.86 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.616, "currentIXG": 0.11542857142857144, "priorTOI": 13.707711442786069, "priorPPTOI": 0.0417910447761194, "deploymentChange": 0.16133617626154972, "ppTOIChange": -0.02631485429992892, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021263", "date": "20260411", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020893", "date": "20250222", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020729", "date": "20250118", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11376856804258816, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.1264702216915106, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1264702216915106, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11879961019013306, "goalProbability": 0.11879961019013306, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.1116446648442273, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.272305534577624, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.034523809523808, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0031317754757889667, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.016368746486790334, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07142857142857142, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0484552293030407, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 13.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4151.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.0492294224699945, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 42.857142857142854, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.798258706467662, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009486921188311254, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0467384284538968, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.819277108433735, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021263", "date": "20260411", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020893", "date": "20250222", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020729", "date": "20250118", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020221", "date": "20241108", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.866666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Michael Bunting", "Sean Couturier", "Noel Acciari" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 118, "fitPct": 1.5579476151298906, "index": 101.55794761512989, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.056497175141244, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.158192090395477, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 47.28813559322034, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.03954802259887, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.440677966101696, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.016949152542373, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.5579476151298906, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9749999999999996, "attemptProjection": 0.9553580335345332, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 9269.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.034523809523808, "projectedAttempts": 1.714285714285714, "onNet": 0.4878680190098875, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 13.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.016368746486790334, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5099075297225891, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8937504453386951, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.07142857142857142 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9651790167672665, "baseline": 1.3880597014925373, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478569", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021263", "date": "20260411", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1343312906573748, "adjustedSOG": 1.1343312906573748, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8937504453386951, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8937504453386951, "afterRecentDefense": 0.893750445338695, "afterRecentZones": 0.8937504453386951, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8937504453386951, "adjusted": 0.8937504453386951, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0467384284538968, "newChartFactor": 1.0467384284538968, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.6207783772981617, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0410397944241867, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1343312906573748, "adjustedSOG": 1.1116446648442273, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 103, "beforeSOG": 1.1116446648442273, "adjustedSOG": 1.1116446648442273 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 179.0, "goalExpected": 0.12408199255035005, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12270513246597012, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11669258671402864, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12170283662153586 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855199051924682, "modelSOG": 1.1116446648442273, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 67, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 180.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10555555555555556, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11376856804258816, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 36.434285714285714, "btb": { "id": "8478569", "name": "Noel Acciari", "score": 36.434285714285714, "components": { "Goal model": 37.142857142857146, "SOG model": 27.142857142857142, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 31.428571428571427, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 63.37142857142857, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.3639372429327952, "unitPlayers": [ "Michael Bunting", "Sean Couturier", "Noel Acciari" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 109 } }, { "id": "8478854", "name": "Ryan Shea", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 0.9, "currentTOI": 23.754166666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 19.769444444444442, "ppShare": 0.2433294663573086, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1652777777777776, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.9560000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.07966666666666668, "priorTOI": 18.886458333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.15604166666666666, "deploymentChange": 4.867708333333333, "ppTOIChange": 1.009236111111111, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020791", "date": "20260121", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020698", "date": "20260110", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020380", "date": "20241130", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.0 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07350646171826503, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 101.0, "goalExpected": 0.06919922506020999, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0680595084333815, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06685924346490273, "goalProbability": 0.06579512114574546, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10641223191572707, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9414032922090063, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.023324434452719, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.769444444444442, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2433294663573086, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2044194116337388, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9968813884137818, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 839.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.2440903748204257, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.952083333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03542278020781427, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0388007054673722, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1281721275994945, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.7747978702425558, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020791", "date": "20260121", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.783333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020698", "date": "20260110", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020380", "date": "20241130", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ryan Shea", "Connor Murphy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": 4.2724042533164805, "index": 104.27240425331648, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 65.25431225121628, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 72 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.677134011499335, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.680672268907563, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.37107474568775, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.3445378151260505, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6722689075630253, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.2724042533164805, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.933333333333333, "attemptProjection": 1.0112636213105104, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 14234.0, "expectedMinutes": 19.769444444444442, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.3765119937431677, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 839.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2044194116337388, "projectedAttempts": 0.08613249666033888, "onNet": 0.40579710144927533, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7873737938367023, "ppAdjusted": 0.01825801681855269, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9722984773219217, "baseline": 0.9, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8478854", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.943379086393153, "adjustedSOG": 0.9414032922090063, "reductionPct": 0.20943798867757435, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7873737938367023, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7873737938367023, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7873737938367023, "afterRecentZones": 0.7851879385921929, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7851879385921929, "adjusted": 0.7851879385921929, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1281721275994945, "newChartFactor": 1.121739029438218, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 107.56666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1946209069311022, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.157696537898326, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.01825801681855269, "afterPlayerForm": 0.01715088175615109, "afterRecentDefense": 0.01825801681855269, "afterRecentZones": 0.01825801681855269, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.01825801681855269, "adjusted": 0.01715088175615109, "playerFactor": 0.9393617021276596, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9414032922090063, "adjustedSOG": 0.9414032922090063, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 115, "beforeSOG": 0.9414032922090063, "adjustedSOG": 0.9414032922090063 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 101.0, "goalExpected": 0.0663433473587073, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06635862410561233, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0641904985953338, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0014296015705697607 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057747988053712694, "modelSOG": 0.9414032922090063, "historyGames": 131, "seasonGames": { "2024": 39, "2025": 80, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 101.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0891089108910891, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07350646171826503, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.82075663466968, "btb": { "id": "8478854", "name": "Ryan Shea", "score": 32.82075663466968, "components": { "Goal model": 18.571428571428573, "SOG model": 18.571428571428573, "Unit attack": 4.3478260869565215, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 19.285714285714285, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 52.4, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.6183747711699874, "unitPlayers": [ "Ryan Shea", "Connor Murphy" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 117 } }, { "id": "8478911", "name": "Matt Roy", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.1898734177215189, "currentTOI": 19.604166666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 15.779166666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.396, "currentIXG": 0.099, "priorTOI": 20.609915611814348, "priorPPTOI": 0.11329113924050632, "deploymentChange": -1.0057489451476798, "ppTOIChange": -0.11329113924050632, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.55 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.357142857142858, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.038551264649839476, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.03320521663203682, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03320521663203682, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03265997504353153, "goalProbability": 0.03265997504353153, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.8613262608539376, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9012410879324002, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.779166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0036241774400185, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1075.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.7685322686661635, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.332067510548523, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.025889825311587455, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787037037037037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0301110101858757, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1111845619134677, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.55 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 20.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jakob Chychrun", "Matt Roy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 133, "fitPct": 1.003700339529189, "index": 101.00370033952919, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 44.172932330827074, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 97 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.9022556390977444, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.105263157894736, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.007518796992481, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.909774436090224, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9022556390977444, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.003700339529189, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5555922809567339, "attemptProjection": 0.7924167192099042, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 3787.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.779166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.37692909546542086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.674004500083319, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.674004500083319, "baseline": 1.1898734177215189, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8478911", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8803520671385989, "adjustedSOG": 0.8613262608539376, "reductionPct": 2.161158813030417, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.674004500083319, "afterPlayerForm": 0.674004500083319, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6422948229422168, "afterRecentZones": 0.674004500083319, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6422948229422168, "adjusted": 0.6422948229422168, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.952953315390057, "oldChartFactor": 1.0301110101858757, "newChartFactor": 1.0301110101858757, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.11666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7775250740791325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8613262608539376, "adjustedSOG": 0.8613262608539376, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 123, "beforeSOG": 0.8613262608539376, "adjustedSOG": 0.8613262608539376 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 180.0, "goalExpected": 0.024187547731669087, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02504496975592956, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023897373243479268, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.08365731907280897 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05794354101955052, "modelSOG": 0.8613262608539376, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 69, "2025": 79, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 180.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.027777777777777776, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.038551264649839476, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.35100931677019, "btb": { "id": "8478911", "name": "Matt Roy", "score": 38.35100931677019, "components": { "Goal model": 4.285714285714286, "SOG model": 12.857142857142858, "Unit attack": 86.95652173913044, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 46.42857142857143, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.75, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1796229034348573, "unitPlayers": [ "Jakob Chychrun", "Matt Roy" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 101 } }, { "id": "8479318", "name": "Auston Matthews", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "C", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 2.857142857142857, "priorSOG": 3.783333333333333, "currentTOI": 20.65357142857143, "currentFiveTOI": 15.220238095238097, "ppShare": 0.7803713527851459, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 60, "currentTotalSOG": 40.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.5023809523809524, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.86 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 6.881, "currentIXG": 0.4915, "priorTOI": 20.80388888888889, "priorPPTOI": 2.620277777777778, "deploymentChange": -0.15031746031745996, "ppTOIChange": 0.8821031746031744, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 23.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.166666666666666, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13033529296856047, "goalHistoryGoals": 69.0, "goalHistoryShots": 528.0, "goalExpected": 0.39420164453184753, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.39420164453184753, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.32578190985865496, "goalProbability": 0.32578190985865496, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 3.0245195722001177, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.321079389910051, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.012916383412644, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.220238095238097, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7803713527851459, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.232270272830618, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.35714285714285715, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 0.989856514368911, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2942.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.096760622633571, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.265557086822856, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.846666666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7042064515189256, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0437592994609362, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1641856423133101, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.200585328587685, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.1301247771836005, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.106826070188971, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 5.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 21.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 23.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 22.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gavin McKenna", "Auston Matthews", "Jack Roslovic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 37, "priorAttempts": 229, "fitPct": 5.472854743777006, "index": 105.472854743777, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.600023604390417, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.047444824737397, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.500295054880205, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 94 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.173610291514223, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.834297179275346, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.844329045202408, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 58, "fitPct": 6.6861776195895, "index": 106.6861776195895, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.724137931034484, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.586206896551724, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.51724137931034, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.0689655172413794, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.10344827586207, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.472854743777006, "zonePPFit": 6.6861776195895, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.175127652519894, "attemptProjection": 2.9000766688109754, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 26.0, "seconds": 12785.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.220238095238097, "projectedAttempts": 3.142857142857143, "onNet": 0.5463702881164363, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2942.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.232270272830618, "projectedAttempts": 0.9887978400909435, "onNet": 0.5389199757297917, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.0401450439832782, "ppAdjusted": 0.6403142595392991, "other": 0.35714285714285715 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.0376021606654344, "baseline": 3.783333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 60, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479318", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.3358946297325938, "adjustedSOG": 3.3185424316437544, "reductionPct": 0.5201662526801765, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.0401450439832782, "afterPlayerForm": 2.0401450439832782, "afterRecentDefense": 2.019487892564997, "afterRecentZones": 2.0317973419766533, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.0112247138352117, "adjusted": 2.0112247138352117, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.98987466529441, "oldChartFactor": 1.1641856423133101, "newChartFactor": 1.155084916727095, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.56666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1666648773994075, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9526083956907074, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6403142595392991, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6403142595392991, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6403142595392991, "afterRecentZones": 0.6403142595392991, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6403142595392991, "adjusted": 0.6403142595392991, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.200585328587685, "newChartFactor": 1.200585328587685, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2197346600331676, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.3185424316437544, "adjustedSOG": 3.2521715830108793, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 6, "beforeSOG": 3.2521715830108793, "adjustedSOG": 3.0245195722001177 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 69.0, "goalHistoryShots": 527.0, "goalExpected": 0.39761428535674687, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.393060909522709, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3280788524886563, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.30664856481019687 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285056398425599, "modelSOG": 3.0245195722001177, "historyGames": 141, "seasonGames": { "2024": 67, "2025": 60, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 69.0, "historyShots": 528.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13068181818181818, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13033529296856047, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.896190476190476, "btb": { "id": "8479318", "name": "Auston Matthews", "score": 62.896190476190476, "components": { "Goal model": 95.0, "SOG model": 96.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 56.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 4.166666666666667, "Shot quality": 98.57142857142857, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 54.22857142857143, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4823855602987623, "unitPlayers": [ "Gavin McKenna", "Auston Matthews", "Jack Roslovic" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 26 } }, { "id": "8479324", "name": "Ryan Lindgren", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 0.631578947368421, "currentTOI": 12.745833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.4125, "ppShare": 0.01875, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.075, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.134, "currentIXG": 0.0335, "priorTOI": 18.33859649122807, "priorPPTOI": 0.04824561403508772, "deploymentChange": -5.592763157894737, "ppTOIChange": 0.02675438596491228, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021087", "date": "20250319", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021007", "date": "20250308", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020945", "date": "20250228", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055062394100533894, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.03905444785263639, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.03849528739935139, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.038301654688955696, "goalProbability": 0.037763760635741675, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.053789405321402056, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.7092762399929449, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.321728691476591, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.4125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01875, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.098515625, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0193427190652695, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 18.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 960.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.3084486370178263, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.38969298245614, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.011589462685784736, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1466049382716048, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.16843826290656, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.321728691476591, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021087", "date": "20250319", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024021007", "date": "20250308", "team": "COL", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020945", "date": "20250228", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 87, "fitPct": 5.614608763551999, "index": 105.614608763552, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 53.448275862068975, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.7586206896551726, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.839080459770115, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 39.195402298850574, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.839080459770115, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9195402298850575, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.614608763551999, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8624999999999999, "attemptProjection": 0.6605987863518288, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2499.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.4125, "projectedAttempts": 1.4999999999999998, "onNet": 0.408247991732043, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 18.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.098515625, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7615493931759143, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7615493931759143, "baseline": 0.631578947368421, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479324", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.709561214852917, "adjustedSOG": 0.7092762399929449, "reductionPct": 0.04016212470564495, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7615493931759143, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7615493931759143, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7615493931759143, "afterRecentZones": 0.7610744350759607, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7610744350759607, "adjusted": 0.7610744350759607, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.16843826290656, "newChartFactor": 1.167151400953486, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 41.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.231012787098876, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7092762399929449, "adjustedSOG": 0.7092762399929449, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7092762399929449, "adjustedSOG": 0.7092762399929449 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.04223771728942965, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.040106162416198785, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04135813226218523, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20455771002669682 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783352337514253, "modelSOG": 0.7092762399929449, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 76, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 114.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05263157894736842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055062394100533894, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479336", "name": "Carl Grundstrom", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.1914893617021276, "currentTOI": 11.33, "currentFiveTOI": 11.283333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 47, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.43, "currentIXG": 0.086, "priorTOI": 11.851418439716312, "priorPPTOI": 0.02553191489361702, "deploymentChange": -0.521418439716312, "ppTOIChange": -0.02553191489361702, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 7.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020400", "date": "20241203", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09983070258673223, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.10527291628872128, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10527291628872128, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09992115711456238, "goalProbability": 0.09992115711456238, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.0545144285372618, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.317577548005908, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.283333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0484552293030407, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1597.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.947329208642415, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.947163120567376, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.005996153686781405, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9743290871809722, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.120478450258118, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.317577548005908, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 7.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.333333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020400", "date": "20241203", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.4 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 86, "fitPct": -0.8556970939675921, "index": 99.14430290603241, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.61794019933555, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.44518272425249, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.697674418604652, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 34.55149501661129, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.827242524916945, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.8604651162790697, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.8556970939675921, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.120478450258118, "attemptProjection": 0.8776528380072826, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3385.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.283333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.5999999999999999, "onNet": 0.5190040242539944, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5099075297225891, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9990656441327003, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9990656441327003, "baseline": 1.1914893617021276, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 47, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479336", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0760351311604712, "adjustedSOG": 1.0760351311604712, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9990656441327003, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9990656441327003, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9990656441327003, "afterRecentZones": 0.9990656441327003, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9990656441327003, "adjusted": 0.9990656441327003, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9743290871809722, "newChartFactor": 0.9743290871809722, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.416666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0410397944241867, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.0760351311604712, "adjustedSOG": 1.0545144285372618, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0545144285372618, "adjustedSOG": 1.0545144285372618 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.1014144740081957, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10028914116681978, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0964415462294006, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10173763382687467 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857844944096325, "modelSOG": 1.0545144285372618, "historyGames": 108, "seasonGames": { "2024": 56, "2025": 47, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08053691275167785, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09983070258673223, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479345", "name": "Jakob Chychrun", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 3.1, "priorSOG": 2.7625, "currentTOI": 24.671666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 18.841666666666665, "ppShare": 0.6173096976016684, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 31.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.96, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.10 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.062, "currentIXG": 0.2062, "priorTOI": 23.340833333333332, "priorPPTOI": 2.8233333333333333, "deploymentChange": 1.3308333333333344, "ppTOIChange": 0.13666666666666671, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 23.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.357142857142858, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09930562017523516, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 431.0, "goalExpected": 0.2663372083882453, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2663372083882453, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23381927863104737, "goalProbability": 0.23381927863104737, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.681995318273683, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.27952233524989, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.027027027027027, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.841666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6173096976016684, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.296654252942053, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0036241774400185, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1776.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.737496264650869, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.282172373081464, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.823541666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6452014454652706, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787037037037037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1016355871027337, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.937966262685259, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9486537086999723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.226497156239545, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.641232575201761, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 23.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 19.466666666666665 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jakob Chychrun", "Matt Roy" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 40, "priorAttempts": 242, "fitPct": 3.3878529034244593, "index": 103.38785290342446, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.95454545454546, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 154 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.971074380165288, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.9834710743801653, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.950413223140497, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.983471074380165, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.1570247933884295, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": -2.0677912438247006, "index": 97.9322087561753, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 51.08108108108108, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.7027027027027, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.108108108108109, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0810810810810811, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.027027027027027, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.3878529034244593, "zonePPFit": -2.0677912438247006, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.495654840653885, "attemptProjection": 2.990580364882751, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 49.0, "sog": 26.0, "seconds": 11305.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.841666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 4.8999999999999995, "onNet": 0.4632513892625698, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1776.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.296654252942053, "projectedAttempts": 0.5568672724564279, "onNet": 0.39446640316205533, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.6880174250799547, "ppAdjusted": 0.15510017768836365, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.243117602768318, "baseline": 2.7625, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479345", "goals": 1, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.14285714285714285, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.0508705616609912, "adjustedSOG": 2.8838659336276162, "reductionPct": 5.473999131003849, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.6880174250799547, "afterPlayerForm": 2.5443342910971256, "afterRecentDefense": 2.561555117056187, "afterRecentZones": 2.6880174250799547, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.561555117056187, "adjusted": 2.4246317981616166, "playerFactor": 0.9465467996441448, "defenseFactor": 0.952953315390057, "oldChartFactor": 1.1016355871027337, "newChartFactor": 1.1016355871027337, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 92.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7063106171696123, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7775250740791325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.15510017768836365, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1408199989872274, "afterRecentDefense": 0.15510017768836365, "afterRecentZones": 0.15435646219494953, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.15435646219494953, "adjusted": 0.14014475788441066, "playerFactor": 0.9079293208172281, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.937966262685259, "newChartFactor": 0.9247613770871824, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 15.183333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.38990120746432494, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.8838659336276162, "adjustedSOG": 2.8838659336276162, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 9, "beforeSOG": 2.8838659336276162, "adjustedSOG": 2.681995318273683 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 47.0, "goalHistoryShots": 427.0, "goalExpected": 0.28715115102219424, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2973303442132348, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.249601703205014, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7599704183979539 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057312843130498704, "modelSOG": 2.681995318273683, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 80, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 47.0, "historyShots": 431.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10904872389791183, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09930562017523516, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.50898550724638, "btb": { "id": "8479345", "name": "Jakob Chychrun", "score": 66.50898550724638, "components": { "Goal model": 82.14285714285714, "SOG model": 94.28571428571429, "Unit attack": 86.95652173913044, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 68.57142857142857, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.75555555555556, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1796229034348573, "unitPlayers": [ "Jakob Chychrun", "Matt Roy" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 14 } }, { "id": "8479365", "name": "Trent Frederic", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.9090909090909091, "priorSOG": 1.0405405405405406, "currentTOI": 9.437878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 8.357575757575757, "ppShare": 0.223861852433281, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0803030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.198, "currentIXG": 0.1089090909090909, "priorTOI": 11.03918918918919, "priorPPTOI": 0.125, "deploymentChange": -1.6013104013104016, "ppTOIChange": 0.9553030303030303, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020504", "date": "20241217", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020208", "date": "20241107", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 11.283333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09758027521036586, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 165.0, "goalExpected": 0.09760913912676292, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09600150900234473, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09299665339943052, "goalProbability": 0.09153735480458988, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14592985948406328, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.0002957966283128, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.568527918781726, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.147265077138849, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.357575757575757, "Current_PP_Share": 0.223861852433281, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1080596387739243, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9988205850658111, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 713.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3185.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.743173248249285, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.87072072072072, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.030691992134865106, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0581474413809744, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.181607632721463, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.110889771941132, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1122778601461947, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.68445022771633, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.976331360946746, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 7.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020504", "date": "20241217", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020208", "date": "20241107", "team": "BOS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 11.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Formenton", "Owen Michaels", "Trent Frederic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 108, "fitPct": 6.053587757382104, "index": 106.0535877573821, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.158249158249157, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.602693602693602, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 49.39393939393939, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.814814814814815, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.723905723905723, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.306397306397305, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": 3.6963257313710614, "index": 103.69632573137106, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 80.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.053587757382104, "zonePPFit": 3.6963257313710614, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0429607297948558, "attemptProjection": 0.9746335623859385, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5516.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.357575757575757, "projectedAttempts": 1.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.4839649409792695, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 713.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1080596387739243, "projectedAttempts": 0.37297940155083004, "onNet": 0.5625734248438756, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7436180150631139, "ppAdjusted": 0.2651791310272833, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.008797146090397, "baseline": 1.0405405405405406, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479365", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0214945038704544, "adjustedSOG": 1.0002957966283128, "reductionPct": 2.0752639550990604, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7436180150631139, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7247573546519926, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7411318985230713, "afterRecentZones": 0.7436180150631139, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7411318985230713, "adjusted": 0.7223342944108219, "playerFactor": 0.9746366279069767, "defenseFactor": 0.9966567290064487, "oldChartFactor": 1.181607632721463, "newChartFactor": 1.181607632721463, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 43.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7980324074074073, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9841088217197997, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2651791310272833, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2511316729426724, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2651791310272833, "afterRecentZones": 0.2651791310272833, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2651791310272833, "adjusted": 0.2511316729426724, "playerFactor": 0.9470265324794145, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.110889771941132, "newChartFactor": 1.110889771941132, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.216666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0002957966283128, "adjustedSOG": 1.0002957966283128, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 111, "beforeSOG": 1.0002957966283128, "adjustedSOG": 1.0002957966283128 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 165.0, "goalExpected": 0.09199501010705904, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0920161936098801, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08789029913650719, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0019321473772385134 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285877293074695, "modelSOG": 1.0002957966283128, "historyGames": 143, "seasonGames": { "2024": 58, "2025": 74, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 165.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07878787878787878, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09758027521036586, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 28.562164502164503, "btb": { "id": "8479365", "name": "Trent Frederic", "score": 28.562164502164503, "components": { "Goal model": 27.142857142857142, "SOG model": 21.428571428571427, "Unit attack": 3.3333333333333335, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 32.142857142857146, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 37.06666666666666, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7113960462604823, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Formenton", "Owen Michaels", "Trent Frederic" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 134 } }, { "id": "8479368", "name": "Max Jones", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 1.0476190476190477, "currentTOI": 10.072222222222221, "currentFiveTOI": 9.819444444444445, "ppShare": 0.03457172342621259, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 21, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.18611111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.897, "currentIXG": 0.1495, "priorTOI": 8.346031746031747, "priorPPTOI": 0.005555555555555556, "deploymentChange": 1.7261904761904745, "ppTOIChange": 0.18055555555555555, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 9.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.35 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11703487426190426, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.11587997062641756, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11397141848404296, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1094178871044669, "goalProbability": 0.10771654166814024, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17013454363266622, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.990131970126253, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.091937765205092, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.819444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03457172342621259, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1711213007265639, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9988205850658111, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 67.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1938.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.54070265638389, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.335714285714285, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0013640885393273383, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0473353194306523, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1974502537299254, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.907449950771251, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 9.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 5.35 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": 6.581675124330843, "index": 106.58167512433084, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.82051282051282, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.8974358974359, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.717948717948715, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.282051282051283, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.615384615384613, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.581675124330843, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9583333333333333, "attemptProjection": 0.9656814635811104, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3535.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.819444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333335, "onNet": 0.49084731319068503, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 67.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1711213007265639, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9620073984572218, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9620073984572218, "baseline": 1.0476190476190477, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 21, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479368", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9962520581219522, "adjustedSOG": 0.990131970126253, "reductionPct": 0.6143112022509944, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9620073984572218, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9518072517977233, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9620073984572217, "afterRecentZones": 0.9620073984572217, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9620073984572217, "adjusted": 0.9518072517977232, "playerFactor": 0.9893970184887803, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1974502537299254, "newChartFactor": 1.1974502537299254, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 46.61666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9191666395813697, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0369741716468963, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.1166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.990131970126253, "adjustedSOG": 0.990131970126253, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.990131970126253, "adjustedSOG": 0.990131970126253 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.10075381543416966, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10077701580917911, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09584440535838465, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0020976505530248546 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853021893714214, "modelSOG": 0.990131970126253, "historyGames": 53, "seasonGames": { "2024": 26, "2025": 21, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 44.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09090909090909091, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11703487426190426, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479372", "name": "Joshua Mahura", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.6521739130434783, "currentTOI": 13.864814814814814, "currentFiveTOI": 12.894444444444444, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 23, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.455, "currentIXG": 0.050555555555555555, "priorTOI": 15.66159420289855, "priorPPTOI": 0.0891304347826087, "deploymentChange": -1.7967793880837366, "ppTOIChange": -0.0891304347826087, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.05 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03793370560307762, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 79.0, "goalExpected": 0.026761254826739557, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.026378101659759498, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02640634543476857, "goalProbability": 0.026033238468676913, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.03731069660916561, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.7054743110720081, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.102111158983197, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.894444444444444, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0193427190652695, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2805.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.62582056892779, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.908695652173913, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.021410730669311408, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1466049382716048, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.193406115051854, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.6016260162601625, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.1 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.05 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joshua Mahura", "Cale Fleury" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": 6.446870501728469, "index": 106.44687050172847, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 52.820512820512825, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.41025641025641, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.446870501728469, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7666666666666666, "attemptProjection": 0.7153491528487227, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 15.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 6963.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.894444444444444, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.3978751928768371, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7410079097576947, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7410079097576947, "baseline": 0.6521739130434783, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 23, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479372", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7054743110720081, "adjustedSOG": 0.7054743110720081, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7410079097576947, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7410079097576947, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7410079097576947, "afterRecentZones": 0.7410079097576947, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7410079097576947, "adjusted": 0.7410079097576947, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.193406115051854, "newChartFactor": 1.193406115051854, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.43333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.048118414450577, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.231012787098876, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7054743110720081, "adjustedSOG": 0.7054743110720081, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 134, "beforeSOG": 0.7054743110720081, "adjustedSOG": 0.7054743110720081 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 77.0, "goalExpected": 0.02239964327703203, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.021269230180637273, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.022150633972759293, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11059987296092345 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05790133302950894, "modelSOG": 0.7054743110720081, "historyGames": 96, "seasonGames": { "2024": 64, "2025": 23, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 79.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.012658227848101266, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03793370560307762, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.163081483733656, "btb": { "id": "8479372", "name": "Joshua Mahura", "score": 28.163081483733656, "components": { "Goal model": 2.142857142857143, "SOG model": 5.0, "Unit attack": 17.391304347826086, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 15.714285714285714, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 61.53846153846154, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9898717804447656, "unitPlayers": [ "Joshua Mahura", "Cale Fleury" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 135 } }, { "id": "8479385", "name": "Jordan Kyrou", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 2.4027777777777777, "currentTOI": 13.971666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 11.265, "ppShare": 0.4042405283281196, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.9383333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.498, "currentIXG": 0.1498, "priorTOI": 15.730787037037036, "priorPPTOI": 2.0881944444444445, "deploymentChange": -1.7591203703703684, "ppTOIChange": -0.14986111111111122, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020324", "date": "20251120", "team": "STL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020280", "date": "20251114", "team": "STL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020381", "date": "20241130", "team": "STL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 4.333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.071428571428571, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13064626640960234, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 427.0, "goalExpected": 0.24287715857336212, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24287715857336212, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2156321392792432, "goalProbability": 0.2156321392792432, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.8590440067525034, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.858854860186418, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.286328460877042, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.265, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4042405283281196, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.1587887928894185, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0000072876742885, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1163.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.548644338118022, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.17392750249418, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.0625, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5062389338379012, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0626823276523873, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0788701867610835, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1149820733257458, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.146496281302034, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1276864862562574, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.23196768609348, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020324", "date": "20251120", "team": "STL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.966666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020280", "date": "20251114", "team": "STL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 11.0, "toi": 18.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020381", "date": "20241130", "team": "STL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.85 }, { "gameId": "2024020162", "date": "20241031", "team": "STL", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 19.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Tuch", "Dylan Strome", "Jordan Kyrou" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 201, "fitPct": 2.6290062253694515, "index": 102.62900622536945, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 32.05223880597015, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.05223880597015, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.557213930348258, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.082089552238806, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.261194029850747, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9950248756218906, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": 3.83273577752486, "index": 103.83273577752486, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.777777777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 24.444444444444443, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.6290062253694515, "zonePPFit": 3.83273577752486, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7379289281047345, "attemptProjection": 1.4615936610292737, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 6759.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.265, "projectedAttempts": 1.9, "onNet": 0.5232207740106041, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1163.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.1587887928894185, "projectedAttempts": 0.6682407269477135, "onNet": 0.5088460086808831, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1530564263348362, "ppAdjusted": 0.34670486823216784, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.599761294567004, "baseline": 2.4027777777777777, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479385", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021160", "date": "20260328", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020307", "date": "20251118", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 6, "attempts": 8 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9209678878513134, "adjustedSOG": 1.8590440067525034, "reductionPct": 3.2235771087290144, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1530564263348362, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1530564263348362, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0506593812625051, "afterRecentZones": 1.1530564263348362, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0506593812625051, "adjusted": 1.0506593812625051, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9111951134969037, "oldChartFactor": 1.0788701867610835, "newChartFactor": 1.0788701867610835, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0906090477028691, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.5800583885987179, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.34670486823216784, "afterPlayerForm": 0.34670486823216784, "afterRecentDefense": 0.34670486823216784, "afterRecentZones": 0.3458954448064817, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3458954448064817, "adjusted": 0.3458954448064817, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1149820733257458, "newChartFactor": 1.1101915569561405, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.333333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1401960784313725, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.8590440067525034, "adjustedSOG": 1.8590440067525034, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 43, "beforeSOG": 1.8590440067525034, "adjustedSOG": 1.8590440067525034 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 56.0, "goalHistoryShots": 424.0, "goalExpected": 0.18589253958222984, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1924822261164636, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16963717867662292, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.545384141393479 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850582397860436, "modelSOG": 1.8590440067525034, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 72, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 56.0, "historyShots": 427.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13114754098360656, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13064626640960234, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 65.29523809523809, "btb": { "id": "8479385", "name": "Jordan Kyrou", "score": 65.29523809523809, "components": { "Goal model": 77.85714285714286, "SOG model": 70.0, "Unit attack": 96.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 75.0, "Shot quality": 49.285714285714285, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 60.85714285714286, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3892961896127733, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Tuch", "Dylan Strome", "Jordan Kyrou" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 19 } }, { "id": "8479400", "name": "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 1.4482758620689655, "currentTOI": 17.31, "currentFiveTOI": 13.136666666666667, "ppShare": 0.5865580448065173, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.88, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.319, "currentIXG": 0.2638, "priorTOI": 16.82183908045977, "priorPPTOI": 2.1724137931034484, "deploymentChange": 0.48816091954022767, "ppTOIChange": 0.7075862068965515, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.35 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13304934179154362, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 192.0, "goalExpected": 0.2098516911545269, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2098516911545269, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18929552830108523, "goalProbability": 0.18929552830108523, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.5772471199693276, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.394316163410302, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.166666666666667, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.136666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5865580448065173, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.132429444282805, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 0.9970876670412914, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 864.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1473.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.510498574267692, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.476190476190476, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.302298850574712, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49645024301972945, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.049749575172167, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0816741536457868, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.7787500425622226, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.135486983264378, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.135777998017839, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.2 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Aliaksei Protas", "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "Tom Wilson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": 2.722471788192891, "index": 102.72247178819289, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.18181818181818, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.545454545454547, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.45454545454546, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.454545454545457, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.454545454545457, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.9090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": -7.3749985812592485, "index": 92.62500141874075, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 45.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.722471788192891, "zonePPFit": -7.3749985812592485, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7745821257118224, "attemptProjection": 1.7136581503254897, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 3941.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.136666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.6, "onNet": 0.5136318584594447, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 864.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.132429444282805, "projectedAttempts": 0.6525894675589177, "onNet": 0.5099961966497445, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.496715087141246, "ppAdjusted": 0.24740505087741005, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7441201380186562, "baseline": 1.4482758620689655, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479400", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.62578242763878, "adjustedSOG": 1.5772471199693276, "reductionPct": 2.9853507360110276, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.496715087141246, "afterPlayerForm": 1.496715087141246, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4169212768156745, "afterRecentZones": 1.4955548634468778, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.415822907692159, "adjusted": 1.415822907692159, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9466873748977975, "oldChartFactor": 1.0816741536457868, "newChartFactor": 1.0800952414368876, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7478946195976414, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.24740505087741005, "afterPlayerForm": 0.24740505087741005, "afterRecentDefense": 0.24740505087741005, "afterRecentZones": 0.24740505087741005, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.24740505087741005, "adjusted": 0.24740505087741005, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.7787500425622226, "newChartFactor": 0.7787500425622226, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5772471199693276, "adjustedSOG": 1.5772471199693276, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 59, "beforeSOG": 1.5772471199693276, "adjustedSOG": 1.5772471199693276 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 190.0, "goalExpected": 0.1813743676222597, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18780388991864463, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16587696841914737, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5345808715568223 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850407803130734, "modelSOG": 1.5772471199693276, "historyGames": 116, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 29, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 192.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13541666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13304934179154362, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.79658263305322, "btb": { "id": "8479400", "name": "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "score": 57.79658263305322, "components": { "Goal model": 68.57142857142857, "SOG model": 58.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 80.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 41.666666666666664, "Shot quality": 75.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.247058823529414, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1438031714204273, "unitPlayers": [ "Aliaksei Protas", "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "Tom Wilson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 43 } }, { "id": "8479407", "name": "Jesper Bratt", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.1666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.1707317073170733, "currentTOI": 17.305555555555554, "currentFiveTOI": 13.205555555555556, "ppShare": 0.6386530843237125, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1347222222222224, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.44, "currentIXG": 0.2866666666666667, "priorTOI": 18.76341463414634, "priorPPTOI": 2.7747967479674798, "deploymentChange": -1.4578590785907863, "ppTOIChange": 0.35992547425474264, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11953594333787022, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 384.0, "goalExpected": 0.2521790616994714, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2567010342301871, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22289442423506653, "goalProbability": 0.22640054104569812, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3506116810631593, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.109650492209555, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.19394194362642, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.165263624280017, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.205555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6386530843237125, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0318281141922903, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 1.0008793601607973, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2257.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.9198990130823965, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.27395253442719, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.16910569105691, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7154311347748162, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0266320505841462, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0347641657745574, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.060524373310371, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0623220573801273, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0739409044298305, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.468244084682441, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 15.300546448087431, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.0 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 197, "fitPct": 1.158805525818579, "index": 101.15880552581858, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.457671524480105, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.92254789585721, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.45783527100049, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.22416898640904, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.565744227935157, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.372032094317996, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 29, "fitPct": 2.017479110345704, "index": 102.0174791103457, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.709359605911331, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.517241379310345, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.07881773399015, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.985221674876847, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.709359605911331, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.158805525818579, "zonePPFit": 2.017479110345704, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.2879123501281393, "attemptProjection": 2.14464646244654, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 9508.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.205555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 3.666666666666667, "onNet": 0.46917269581629445, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2257.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0318281141922903, "projectedAttempts": 0.6447840030182983, "onNet": 0.5602651118298183, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7395351908218217, "ppAdjusted": 0.47674421546551804, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.21627940628734, "baseline": 2.1707317073170733, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479407", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1980603266992333, "adjustedSOG": 2.152704583887301, "reductionPct": 2.06344394924054, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7395351908218217, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6949153553503036, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7395351908218217, "afterRecentZones": 1.7395351908218217, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7395351908218217, "adjusted": 1.6949153553503036, "playerFactor": 0.974349564350901, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0347641657745574, "newChartFactor": 1.0347641657745574, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8351877444894709, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3866973823593225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.47674421546551804, "afterPlayerForm": 0.445771146250483, "afterRecentDefense": 0.47674421546551804, "afterRecentZones": 0.47674421546551804, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.47674421546551804, "adjusted": 0.445771146250483, "playerFactor": 0.9350321027287319, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.060524373310371, "newChartFactor": 1.060524373310371, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5823013415892673, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.152704583887301, "adjustedSOG": 2.109650492209555, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 31, "beforeSOG": 2.109650492209555, "adjustedSOG": 2.109650492209555 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 45.0, "goalHistoryShots": 384.0, "goalExpected": 0.2449938777051719, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2431937140443745, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21729066979551653, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1410273874248108 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855396575529193, "modelSOG": 2.109650492209555, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 45.0, "historyShots": 384.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1171875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11953594333787022, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.630670995671, "btb": { "id": "8479407", "name": "Jesper Bratt", "score": 63.630670995671, "components": { "Goal model": 80.71428571428571, "SOG model": 81.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 83.33333333333333, "Shot quality": 83.57142857142857, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 38.4, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.823936243337629, "unitPlayers": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 24 } }, { "id": "8479442", "name": "Troy Stecher", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 19.532142857142855, "currentFiveTOI": 15.69047619047619, "ppShare": 0.015915119363395226, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 64, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07142857142857142, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5559999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.03971428571428571, "priorTOI": 19.187239583333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.03463541666666667, "deploymentChange": 0.34490327380952124, "ppTOIChange": 0.036793154761904756, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021151", "date": "20250327", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.616666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021116", "date": "20250322", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020797", "date": "20250127", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020631", "date": "20250104", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.883333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0591471946041678, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 133.0, "goalExpected": 0.05971399300890759, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05971399300890759, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05796607665334196, "goalProbability": 0.05796607665334196, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.0095828451126547, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.550834597875569, "Current_PP_SOG60": 60.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.69047619047619, "Current_PP_Share": 0.015915119363395226, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0659198560060629, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0064482949600444, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 60.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.3052706929552915, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.734635416666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009308358096445037, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1212121212121213, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.885193348026448, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 60, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.6 }, { "gameId": "2024021151", "date": "20250327", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 7.616666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021116", "date": "20250322", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020797", "date": "20250127", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.6 }, { "gameId": "2024020631", "date": "20250104", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.883333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Morgan Rielly", "Troy Stecher" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": 9.020182495447187, "index": 109.02018249544719, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 57.86666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.066666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.066666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.333333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 9.020182495447187, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1395662983839383, "attemptProjection": 0.9635628137677098, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 13180.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.69047619047619, "projectedAttempts": 1.9285714285714286, "onNet": 0.4267777602207066, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 60.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0659198560060629, "projectedAttempts": 0.0659198560060629, "onNet": 0.4254049445865303, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9999658686547257, "ppAdjusted": 0.0515986874210983, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.051564556075824, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 64, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479442", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0309387336454945, "adjustedSOG": 1.030186576645566, "reductionPct": 0.07295845770279863, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9999658686547257, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9999658686547257, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9987122736548455, "afterRecentZones": 0.9999658686547257, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9987122736548453, "adjusted": 0.9987122736548453, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9987463622117753, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.96666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2948226741330189, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9941323514003023, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0515986874210983, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0515986874210983, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0515986874210983, "afterRecentZones": 0.0515986874210983, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0515986874210983, "adjusted": 0.0515986874210983, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3043478260869565, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.030186576645566, "adjustedSOG": 1.0095828451126547, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 109, "beforeSOG": 1.0095828451126547, "adjustedSOG": 1.0095828451126547 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 132.0, "goalExpected": 0.059851187962139736, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05916578765600951, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05809531008810838, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06458030543349119 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05781296342771098, "modelSOG": 1.0095828451126547, "historyGames": 144, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 64, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 133.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06015037593984962, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0591471946041678, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 30.179751552795032, "btb": { "id": "8479442", "name": "Troy Stecher", "score": 30.179751552795032, "components": { "Goal model": 15.0, "SOG model": 22.857142857142858, "Unit attack": 47.82608695652174, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 2.142857142857143, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 40.266666666666666, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4332504286816565, "unitPlayers": [ "Morgan Rielly", "Troy Stecher" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 126 } }, { "id": "8479520", "name": "Brandon Duhaime", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 0.9285714285714286, "priorSOG": 0.7804878048780488, "currentTOI": 11.722619047619048, "currentFiveTOI": 9.303571428571429, "ppShare": 0.006631299734748011, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.029761904761904764, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.93 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.302, "currentIXG": 0.093, "priorTOI": 11.06869918699187, "priorPPTOI": 0.05589430894308943, "deploymentChange": 0.6539198606271786, "ppTOIChange": -0.026132404181184666, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020839", "date": "20260127", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020102", "date": "20251021", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021014", "date": "20250309", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1032974266704025, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.0949536770578222, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0949536770578222, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09058493972621906, "goalProbability": 0.09058493972621906, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9192259683370119, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.606525911708253, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.303571428571429, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006631299734748011, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02746660666919288, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.21428571428571427, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0110574188607588, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.40043092732245, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 39.27272727272727, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.810569105691057, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.012773231023623507, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1427281754987813, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2106972158612537, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0880082346886257, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020839", "date": "20260127", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020102", "date": "20251021", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021014", "date": "20250309", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 8.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020770", "date": "20250123", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brandon Duhaime", "Teddy Blueger", "Zack MacEwen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 95, "fitPct": 7.023240528708456, "index": 107.02324052870846, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.894736842105265, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.473684210526315, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.736842105263154, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.894736842105264, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6842105263157894, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": 8.981549210184312, "index": 108.98154921018431, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.023240528708456, "zonePPFit": 8.981549210184312, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0357142857142856, "attemptProjection": 1.0502542477034584, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 7815.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.303571428571429, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.4921364240088984, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 25.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02746660666919288, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8286985524231578, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.21428571428571427 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.042984266708872, "baseline": 0.7804878048780488, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479520", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020839", "date": "20260127", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9379856819765428, "adjustedSOG": 0.9379856819765428, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8286985524231578, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8286985524231578, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8286985524231578, "afterRecentZones": 0.8286985524231578, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8286985524231578, "adjusted": 0.8286985524231578, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2106972158612537, "newChartFactor": 1.2106972158612537, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.304931918575527, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4848349487486736, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.16666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9379856819765428, "adjustedSOG": 0.9192259683370119, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 120, "beforeSOG": 0.9192259683370119, "adjustedSOG": 0.9192259683370119 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 158.0, "goalExpected": 0.09033953672445157, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0893049917432263, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08637907525439094, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09456710277010866 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857330934304648, "modelSOG": 0.9192259683370119, "historyGames": 178, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 160.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0875, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1032974266704025, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 32.53666666666667, "btb": { "id": "8479520", "name": "Brandon Duhaime", "score": 32.53666666666667, "components": { "Goal model": 25.714285714285715, "SOG model": 15.0, "Unit attack": 36.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 20.714285714285715, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 39.37142857142857, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3113880622718943, "unitPlayers": [ "Brandon Duhaime", "Teddy Blueger", "Zack MacEwen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 121 } }, { "id": "8479576", "name": "Vincent Desharnais", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.6415094339622641, "currentTOI": 19.414814814814815, "currentFiveTOI": 14.957407407407409, "ppShare": 0.003575685339690107, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 53, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.134, "currentIXG": 0.014888888888888889, "priorTOI": 18.177358490566036, "priorPPTOI": 0.033962264150943396, "deploymentChange": 1.2374563242487788, "ppTOIChange": -0.01729559748427673, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020938", "date": "20250227", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020922", "date": "20250225", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020881", "date": "20250208", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.357142857142858, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0411411318129011, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 65.0, "goalExpected": 0.019397373819111725, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.019397373819111725, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.019210455290831433, "goalProbability": 0.019210455290831433, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.4714837187106522, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.3371301225702612, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.957407407407409, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003575685339690107, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.019095436744423634, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0036241774400185, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2517.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.5883480761688964, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.433333333333334, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006758331497991505, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787037037037037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0703449787048247, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.9995835068721366, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020938", "date": "20250227", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020922", "date": "20250225", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020881", "date": "20250208", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020082", "date": "20241019", "team": "VAN", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": 2.344832623494156, "index": 102.34483262349416, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 91.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.4814814814814816, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.9259259259259265, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.344832623494156, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3833333333333333, "attemptProjection": 0.3682947602835198, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 8077.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.957407407407409, "projectedAttempts": 0.888888888888889, "onNet": 0.39417047477576567, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 9.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.019095436744423634, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.37581404680842656, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.37581404680842656, "baseline": 0.6415094339622641, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 53, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8479576", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.4820922016699616, "adjustedSOG": 0.4714837187106522, "reductionPct": 2.2005091396545606, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.37581404680842656, "afterPlayerForm": 0.37581404680842656, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3581332418762442, "afterRecentZones": 0.37581404680842656, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3581332418762442, "adjusted": 0.3581332418762442, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.952953315390057, "oldChartFactor": 1.0703449787048247, "newChartFactor": 1.0703449787048247, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 76.36666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1017295940637277, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7775250740791325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.4714837187106522, "adjustedSOG": 0.4714837187106522, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.4714837187106522, "adjustedSOG": 0.4714837187106522 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 65.0, "goalExpected": 0.012895813138388796, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01335295556259267, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.012813018424001543, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.045118191484569935 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057882867491286814, "modelSOG": 0.4714837187106522, "historyGames": 113, "seasonGames": { "2024": 51, "2025": 53, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 65.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.015384615384615385, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0411411318129011, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8479772", "name": "Zack MacEwen", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "currentTOI": 7.341666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 7.314583333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.996, "currentIXG": 0.1245, "priorTOI": 6.333333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 1.0083333333333337, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020178", "date": "20241102", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.483333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11487842399674814, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 38.0, "goalExpected": 0.12946719936196185, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12946719936196185, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12143659461611007, "goalProbability": 0.12143659461611007, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.126993171194851, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.202791227570494, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.314583333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 0.9986202802997413, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2019.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.574468085106384, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 6.266666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0846698211967674, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2337825021282678, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.7755637126376507, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020178", "date": "20241102", "team": "OTT", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.483333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brandon Duhaime", "Teddy Blueger", "Zack MacEwen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": 7.792750070942262, "index": 107.79275007094226, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 24.242424242424242, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 46.060606060606055, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.909090909090908, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.121212121212121, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.792750070942262, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1500000000000001, "attemptProjection": 1.0250110175837501, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 3511.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.314583333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.7499999999999998, "onNet": 0.5172223969801825, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5099075297225891, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.087505508791875, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.087505508791875, "baseline": 1.3333333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 3, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479772", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1858366386084582, "adjustedSOG": 1.1499930318314808, "reductionPct": 3.0226428843553643, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.087505508791875, "afterPlayerForm": 1.087505508791875, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0288215857166443, "afterRecentZones": 1.0863898860551533, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0277661641635794, "adjusted": 1.0277661641635794, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9460380452321352, "oldChartFactor": 1.2337825021282678, "newChartFactor": 1.2313887007168876, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 37.93333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.322244539291991, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7474312027727088, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1499930318314808, "adjustedSOG": 1.126993171194851, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 100, "beforeSOG": 1.126993171194851, "adjustedSOG": 1.126993171194851 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 36.0, "goalExpected": 0.12442506090997546, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12300017733219391, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11699556956446323, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12590753168827268 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853222511551243, "modelSOG": 1.126993171194851, "historyGames": 32, "seasonGames": { "2024": 21, "2025": 3, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 38.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07894736842105263, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11487842399674814, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 39.82290043290043, "btb": { "id": "8479772", "name": "Zack MacEwen", "score": 39.82290043290043, "components": { "Goal model": 40.0, "SOG model": 29.285714285714285, "Unit attack": 36.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 41.42857142857143, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.32727272727273, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3113880622718943, "unitPlayers": [ "Brandon Duhaime", "Teddy Blueger", "Zack MacEwen" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 100 } }, { "id": "8479968", "name": "Vinni Lettieri", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.4, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 10.22, "currentFiveTOI": 9.053333333333333, "ppShare": 0.273542600896861, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0166666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.40 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.41200000000000003, "currentIXG": 0.0824, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10600448142713843, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 59.0, "goalExpected": 0.15827659026429217, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15827659026429217, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1463863519107073, "goalProbability": 0.1463863519107073, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.4931122546274864, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.952871870397644, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.80327868852459, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.053333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.273542600896861, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1330036835361947, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 0.9986202802997413, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 305.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1115.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0846698211967674, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.223761359868904, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2018086649902466, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.040404040404041, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bo Groulx", "Colton Sissons", "Vinni Lettieri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 7.458711995630139, "index": 107.45871199563014, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 42.857142857142854, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 6.726955499674887, "index": 106.72695549967489, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.458711995630139, "zonePPFit": 6.726955499674887, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.636318866111467, "attemptProjection": 1.549383912319859, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2716.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.053333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999998, "onNet": 0.5183705567788613, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 305.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1330036835361947, "projectedAttempts": 0.6686579115951314, "onNet": 0.499912763889235, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2770207974547707, "ppAdjusted": 0.31583059176089223, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5928513892156628, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8479968", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5928513892156628, "adjustedSOG": 1.5235839332933536, "reductionPct": 4.348645227752057, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2770207974547707, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2770207974547707, "afterRecentDefense": 1.208110258944894, "afterRecentZones": 1.2770207974547707, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.208110258944894, "adjusted": 1.208110258944894, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9460380452321352, "oldChartFactor": 1.223761359868904, "newChartFactor": 1.223761359868904, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 45.266666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7474312027727088, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.31583059176089223, "afterPlayerForm": 0.31583059176089223, "afterRecentDefense": 0.31583059176089223, "afterRecentZones": 0.31547367434845963, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.31547367434845963, "adjusted": 0.31547367434845963, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2018086649902466, "newChartFactor": 1.1984616898303233, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.083333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5235839332933536, "adjustedSOG": 1.4931122546274864, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 69, "beforeSOG": 1.4931122546274864, "adjustedSOG": 1.4931122546274864 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 58.0, "goalExpected": 0.17482037796669125, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17281838026779897, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16039218071088385, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1682576617467152 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285471254691501, "modelSOG": 1.4931122546274864, "historyGames": 31, "seasonGames": { "2024": 26, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 59.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06779661016949153, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10600448142713843, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 45.214285714285715, "btb": { "id": "8479968", "name": "Vinni Lettieri", "score": 45.214285714285715, "components": { "Goal model": 51.42857142857143, "SOG model": 51.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 10.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 38.57142857142857, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9251789771251537, "unitPlayers": [ "Bo Groulx", "Colton Sissons", "Vinni Lettieri" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 75 } }, { "id": "8479985", "name": "Cale Fleury", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.9565217391304348, "currentTOI": 14.791666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 13.466666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 23, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.055, "currentIXG": 0.01375, "priorTOI": 16.295652173913044, "priorPPTOI": 0.23840579710144927, "deploymentChange": -1.5039855072463784, "ppTOIChange": -0.23840579710144927, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.783333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04778349070791948, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 42.0, "goalExpected": 0.04609663101300208, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04543664439151917, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04505032002281765, "goalProbability": 0.04441985798447284, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06304620383448117, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9646978554742166, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.455445544554456, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.466666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0193427190652695, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1345.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.804217301503434, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.086231884057971, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.05726935276588173, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1466049382716048, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.9726254666113645, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.783333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joshua Mahura", "Cale Fleury" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 36, "fitPct": 11.23279308592825, "index": 111.23279308592825, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 88.88888888888889, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 11.23279308592825, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1500000000000001, "attemptProjection": 0.7902971994068089, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 3232.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.466666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.75, "onNet": 0.4186296059121826, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9701485997034045, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9701485997034045, "baseline": 0.9565217391304348, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 23, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479985", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9646978554742166, "adjustedSOG": 0.9646978554742166, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9701485997034045, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9701485997034045, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9701485997034045, "afterRecentZones": 0.9701485997034045, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9701485997034045, "adjusted": 0.9701485997034045, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.86666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.231012787098876, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9646978554742166, "adjustedSOG": 0.9646978554742166, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 113, "beforeSOG": 0.9646978554742166, "adjustedSOG": 0.9646978554742166 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 42.0, "goalExpected": 0.06510332272962735, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.061817839665357026, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0630293519890576, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3083463756055581 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785255680524566, "modelSOG": 0.9646978554742166, "historyGames": 41, "seasonGames": { "2024": 14, "2025": 23, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 42.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.023809523809523808, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04778349070791948, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 29.612422143074316, "btb": { "id": "8479985", "name": "Cale Fleury", "score": 29.612422143074316, "components": { "Goal model": 10.714285714285714, "SOG model": 20.0, "Unit attack": 17.391304347826086, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 27.857142857142858, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 46.676923076923075, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9898717804447656, "unitPlayers": [ "Joshua Mahura", "Cale Fleury" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 128 } }, { "id": "8479996", "name": "Cody Glass", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.4857142857142858, "currentTOI": 12.345833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 10.105555555555556, "ppShare": 0.05970571590265988, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.29305555555555557, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.58 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.89, "currentIXG": 0.1575, "priorTOI": 13.613809523809524, "priorPPTOI": 0.36714285714285716, "deploymentChange": -1.2679761904761904, "ppTOIChange": -0.07408730158730159, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020980", "date": "20250304", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020447", "date": "20241210", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.083333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12373531941964003, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 214.0, "goalExpected": 0.19076678130114563, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19418753375776657, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17367471981269675, "goalProbability": 0.17649654491065467, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.28218250979579196, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.541732645100086, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.916437603078615, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.061611374407583, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.105555555555556, "Current_PP_Share": 0.05970571590265988, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.28343630132679365, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 1.0177330048540136, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 211.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.774478094678036, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.669260700389105, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.146428571428572, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09466114269543643, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0968851379369222, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0273592992918095, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0303286338276931, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.126895146714476, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0433631632802036, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.832416018219776, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.35483870967742, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020980", "date": "20250304", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020447", "date": "20241210", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 133, "fitPct": 0.9119766430603136, "index": 100.91197664306031, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.81203007518797, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.218045112781958, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.6390977443609, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.31578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.3007518796992485, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3, "fitPct": 1.0109544609231023, "index": 101.0109544609231, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 86.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.9119766430603136, "zonePPFit": 1.0109544609231023, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7532865135803402, "attemptProjection": 1.5097496942430813, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 7276.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.105555555555556, "projectedAttempts": 2.25, "onNet": 0.5371273647135716, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 211.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.28343630132679365, "projectedAttempts": 0.1611960007545746, "onNet": 0.5198038158160857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.382494445512667, "ppAdjusted": 0.08235699173237698, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6315181039117106, "baseline": 1.4857142857142858, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8479996", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5731965766327405, "adjustedSOG": 1.5731965766327407, "reductionPct": -2.220446049250313e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.382494445512667, "afterPlayerForm": 1.382494445512667, "afterRecentDefense": 1.382494445512667, "afterRecentZones": 1.382494445512667, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.382494445512667, "adjusted": 1.382494445512667, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0273592992918095, "newChartFactor": 1.0273592992918095, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.75, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.06644117481256, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1431555481815203, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.08235699173237698, "afterPlayerForm": 0.08235699173237698, "afterRecentDefense": 0.08235699173237698, "afterRecentZones": 0.08235699173237698, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.08235699173237698, "adjusted": 0.08235699173237698, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0303286338276931, "newChartFactor": 1.0303286338276931, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.2446808510638294, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5731965766327407, "adjustedSOG": 1.541732645100086, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 64, "beforeSOG": 1.541732645100086, "adjustedSOG": 1.541732645100086 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 26.0, "goalHistoryShots": 211.0, "goalExpected": 0.1641671446986192, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16296087893005595, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1513998289941048, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.102425497514122 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852890297766967, "modelSOG": 1.541732645100086, "historyGames": 147, "seasonGames": { "2024": 65, "2025": 70, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 26.0, "historyShots": 214.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12149532710280374, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12373531941964003, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.99737429237429, "btb": { "id": "8479996", "name": "Cody Glass", "score": 43.99737429237429, "components": { "Goal model": 62.857142857142854, "SOG model": 55.0, "Unit attack": 43.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 51.42857142857143, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 54.892307692307696, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.380624334248085, "unitPlayers": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 80 } }, { "id": "8480002", "name": "Nico Hischier", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.4166666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.573170731707317, "currentTOI": 18.133333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.46111111111111, "ppShare": 0.657328805885682, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 29.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.226388888888889, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.42 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.53, "currentIXG": 0.4608333333333334, "priorTOI": 20.716666666666665, "priorPPTOI": 2.8646341463414635, "deploymentChange": -2.583333333333332, "ppTOIChange": 0.3617547425474257, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.266666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.083333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15718836020264482, "goalHistoryGoals": 70.0, "goalHistoryShots": 427.0, "goalExpected": 0.3534541944299996, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3597921915155128, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29774184081337446, "goalProbability": 0.302178675803587, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.44368349902125237, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.248602848037424, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.018724921979492, "Current_PP_SOG60": 21.696082651743435, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.46111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.657328805885682, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1204859146073067, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 1.0177330048540136, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2323.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.765863590091619, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 16.347381864623244, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.974593495934961, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7385940824433241, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0968851379369222, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0089209086032784, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0853924747038248, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.106670350000752, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0991236083582412, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.934362355762026, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.804410911201394, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.25 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 20.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.266666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 178, "fitPct": 0.2973636201092802, "index": 100.29736362010928, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.815730337078652, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 32.386516853932584, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.6561797752809, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 67 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.420224719101126, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.27191011235955, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.44943820224719105, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 82, "fitPct": 2.8464158234608306, "index": 102.84641582346083, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 9.497847919655666, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.32998565279771, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.26685796269728, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.4390243902439024, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.978479196556671, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4878048780487805, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.2973636201092802, "zonePPFit": 2.8464158234608306, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.6235582475169403, "attemptProjection": 2.257984719737408, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 8972.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.46111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 2.666666666666666, "onNet": 0.49218057418225625, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 2323.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1204859146073067, "projectedAttempts": 1.611960007545746, "onNet": 0.5718542631776636, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3771914993892196, "ppAdjusted": 1.0635799842379545, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.440771483627174, "baseline": 2.573170731707317, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480002", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.4937311828592312, "adjustedSOG": 2.4671964538483913, "reductionPct": 1.0640573127219, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3771914993892196, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3337751178890276, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3771914993892196, "afterRecentZones": 1.3764400224368911, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3764400224368911, "adjusted": 1.3330473314765152, "playerFactor": 0.968474695407685, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0089209086032784, "newChartFactor": 1.00782474722581, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.48333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.797137503230809, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1431555481815203, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 1.0635799842379545, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0635799842379545, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0635799842379545, "afterRecentZones": 1.0634996037992583, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0634996037992583, "adjusted": 1.0634996037992583, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0853924747038248, "newChartFactor": 1.08525178304998, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.266666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.190061475409836, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.4671964538483913, "adjustedSOG": 2.4178525247714235, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 17, "beforeSOG": 2.4178525247714235, "adjustedSOG": 2.248602848037424 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 68.0, "goalHistoryShots": 424.0, "goalExpected": 0.34653836303905367, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3439920717845194, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2928683089537659, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18028575668591618 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1283826582679382, "modelSOG": 2.248602848037424, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 75, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 70.0, "historyShots": 427.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16393442622950818, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15718836020264482, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.33448051948052, "btb": { "id": "8480002", "name": "Nico Hischier", "score": 67.33448051948052, "components": { "Goal model": 93.57142857142857, "SOG model": 88.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 86.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 83.33333333333333, "Shot quality": 97.85714285714286, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 42.93333333333334, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.222591776725312, "unitPlayers": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 11 } }, { "id": "8480003", "name": "Jesper Boqvist", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.6, "priorSOG": 0.8767123287671232, "currentTOI": 11.981666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.161666666666665, "ppShare": 0.06071719641401793, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.24833333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.60 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.27, "currentIXG": 0.227, "priorTOI": 11.828995433789954, "priorPPTOI": 0.44885844748858444, "deploymentChange": 0.15267123287671147, "ppTOIChange": -0.2005251141552511, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020659", "date": "20260104", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020490", "date": "20251211", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020639", "date": "20250106", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020321", "date": "20241123", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12304439863063524, "goalHistoryGoals": 20.0, "goalHistoryShots": 167.0, "goalExpected": 0.15361072652375682, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1563652116942644, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1423942007675481, "goalProbability": 0.1447532128003223, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.23590120327741937, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.2484170611039198, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.5257578020008955, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.161666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06071719641401793, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2882380240876573, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 1.0008793601607973, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 149.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2454.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.516254623321005, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.493387589013225, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.555479452054794, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.08779985117344657, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0266320505841462, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.05668585657333, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0848275677571426, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.863025962399284, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.35 }, { "gameId": "2025020659", "date": "20260104", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020490", "date": "20251211", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020639", "date": "20250106", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020321", "date": "20241123", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.566666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": 1.8895285524443324, "index": 101.88952855244433, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.962871287128714, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.46039603960396, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.027227722772277, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.024752475247528, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.544554455445546, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.9801980198019802, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.8895285524443324, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7187585948599993, "attemptProjection": 1.434283534740371, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 6697.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.161666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 1.9, "onNet": 0.5666990348801693, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 149.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.2882380240876573, "projectedAttempts": 0.23213800597663675, "onNet": 0.4902957016563357, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3217654337932057, "ppAdjusted": 0.054755631006979597, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.5765210648001853, "baseline": 0.8767123287671232, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480003", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2965975703869606, "adjustedSOG": 1.2738949603101224, "reductionPct": 1.7509372680732938, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3217654337932057, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2839277503318087, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3217654337932057, "afterRecentZones": 1.3217654337932057, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3217654337932057, "adjusted": 1.2839277503318087, "playerFactor": 0.9713733749619928, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.05668585657333, "newChartFactor": 1.05668585657333, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8063452884427255, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3866973823593225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.054755631006979597, "afterPlayerForm": 0.054755631006979597, "afterRecentDefense": 0.054755631006979597, "afterRecentZones": 0.054755631006979597, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.054755631006979597, "adjusted": 0.054755631006979597, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.128787878787879, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2738949603101224, "adjustedSOG": 1.2484170611039198, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 84, "beforeSOG": 1.2484170611039198, "adjustedSOG": 1.2484170611039198 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 165.0, "goalExpected": 0.1317222390906127, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13075437168775808, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12341555784042407, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.084882821773416 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852854434379607, "modelSOG": 1.2484170611039198, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 20.0, "historyShots": 167.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11976047904191617, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12304439863063524, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 40.025432900432904, "btb": { "id": "8480003", "name": "Jesper Boqvist", "score": 40.025432900432904, "components": { "Goal model": 50.714285714285715, "SOG model": 40.714285714285715, "Unit attack": 26.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 72.14285714285714, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 46.666666666666664, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.222986033107045, "unitPlayers": [ "Anthony Mantha", "Evan Rodrigues", "Jesper Boqvist" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 99 } }, { "id": "8480015", "name": "Owen Tippett", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.728395061728395, "currentTOI": 16.44074074074074, "currentFiveTOI": 13.631481481481481, "ppShare": 0.3859922178988327, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8370370370370372, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.33 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.484, "currentIXG": 0.1648888888888889, "priorTOI": 16.843004115226336, "priorPPTOI": 2.0946502057613166, "deploymentChange": -0.4022633744855959, "ppTOIChange": -0.2576131687242793, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11671147172799246, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 430.0, "goalExpected": 0.29848555434596286, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.29848555434596286, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2580590004043112, "goalProbability": 0.2580590004043112, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.557465431004184, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.803151745686728, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.887096774193548, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.631481481481481, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3859922178988327, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.0174526588845656, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0484552293030407, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 992.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2570.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.648946426112106, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.145383104125736, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.446296296296298, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49192724502356494, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0718187021738985, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0563591280061555, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.094302784797187, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.803151745686728, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.887096774193548, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.283333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 16.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.466666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.666666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 16.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 230, "fitPct": 2.3939567391299477, "index": 102.39395673912995, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 33.70434782608696, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.895652173913044, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 28.591304347826085, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.486956521739131, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.130434782608697, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.191304347826087, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": 1.878637600205181, "index": 101.87863760020518, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.096774193548384, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.74193548387097, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.967741935483872, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.967741935483872, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.225806451612903, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.3939567391299477, "zonePPFit": 1.878637600205181, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.700591463010581, "attemptProjection": 2.4351418169434234, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 7361.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.631481481481481, "projectedAttempts": 3.8888888888888893, "onNet": 0.5070850989027256, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 992.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.0174526588845656, "projectedAttempts": 0.6101167315175098, "onNet": 0.5180977542932628, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.1920977098141616, "ppAdjusted": 0.37576893016284074, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.5678666399770025, "baseline": 2.728395061728395, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480015", "goals": 0, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 12, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.6320780086775595, "adjustedSOG": 2.609658603065494, "reductionPct": 0.8517758796719566, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.1920977098141616, "afterPlayerForm": 2.1917008012908856, "afterRecentDefense": 2.1920977098141616, "afterRecentZones": 2.190526249908906, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.190526249908906, "adjusted": 2.1901296259194023, "playerFactor": 0.999818936664411, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0718187021738985, "newChartFactor": 1.0703540759859251, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 70.18333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9988804830885097, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0410397944241867, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.37576893016284074, "afterPlayerForm": 0.34687263017103614, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3694522095594719, "afterRecentZones": 0.3750303514798621, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3687260464723807, "adjusted": 0.3403713380374904, "playerFactor": 0.9231008801624916, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1.0563591280061555, "newChartFactor": 1.0524638660969188, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.616666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.34384748700173307, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.609658603065494, "adjustedSOG": 2.557465431004184, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.557465431004184, "adjustedSOG": 2.557465431004184 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 49.0, "goalHistoryShots": 430.0, "goalExpected": 0.29197449641974743, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2887346384716721, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2532124185124922, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24234093125554135 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285708001583601, "modelSOG": 2.557465431004184, "historyGames": 167, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 49.0, "historyShots": 430.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11395348837209303, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11671147172799246, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480021", "name": "Jack Studnicka", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.8421052631578947, "currentTOI": 8.799999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 8.799999999999999, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 19, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.128, "currentIXG": 0.042666666666666665, "priorTOI": 7.095614035087719, "priorPPTOI": 0.07631578947368421, "deploymentChange": 1.7043859649122801, "ppTOIChange": -0.07631578947368421, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020607", "date": "20251229", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 4.883333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10985885650588749, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.05164029860346879, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05164029860346879, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05032959681607269, "goalProbability": 0.05032959681607269, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.47006040519547293, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.272727272727273, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.799999999999999, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9734807759894489, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 834.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9090689562650927, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0364953277718596, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9422457257912095, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.272727272727273, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020607", "date": "20251229", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 4.883333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": 1.216510925728656, "index": 101.21651092572866, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.631578947368425, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684212, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.1052631578947367, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.2105263157894735, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 68.42105263157895, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.315789473684212, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.216510925728656, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3140819085970698, "attemptProjection": 0.1820817313595918, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1584.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.799999999999999, "projectedAttempts": 0.3333333333333333, "onNet": 0.5168393545675493, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.2480818199783308, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.2480818199783308, "baseline": 0.8421052631578947, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 19, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480021", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020607", "date": "20251229", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.48569119725015636, "adjustedSOG": 0.4796534746892581, "reductionPct": 1.2431196190258564, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.2480818199783308, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2480818199783308, "afterRecentDefense": 0.23801894904350046, "afterRecentZones": 0.2480818199783308, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.23801894904350046, "adjusted": 0.23801894904350046, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9594372899404346, "oldChartFactor": 1.0364953277718596, "newChartFactor": 1.0364953277718596, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8085007776538419, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.4796534746892581, "adjustedSOG": 0.47006040519547293, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.47006040519547293, "adjustedSOG": 0.47006040519547293 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.052544726183571665, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.051961670297380316, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05118811662770014, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.05533716611138967 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853486211188836, "modelSOG": 0.47006040519547293, "historyGames": 22, "seasonGames": { "2025": 19, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 17.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10985885650588749, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480028", "name": "Morgan Frost", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.090909090909091, "priorSOG": 1.7073170731707317, "currentTOI": 15.266666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 11.831818181818182, "ppShare": 0.6950294860994103, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.5, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.969, "currentIXG": 0.2699090909090909, "priorTOI": 15.502032520325205, "priorPPTOI": 2.5016260162601625, "deploymentChange": -0.23536585365853746, "ppTOIChange": -0.001626016260162455, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.583333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.833333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.127400418503171, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 307.0, "goalExpected": 0.22865465735376872, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24226418348460238, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20439675820300807, "goalProbability": 0.21515119393149815, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.0754435728490082, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.79477163450666, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.915097963887821, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.272727272727273, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.831818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6950294860994103, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.447960544790789, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 0.9775426619938402, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1650.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.9574045574144865, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.48228794280143, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.28231707317073, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6642560310864051, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9085298924311536, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9932081139513, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9023592609299236, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.1594298972489225, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.385614385614385, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.3 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020056", "date": "20241015", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Yegor Sharangovich", "Morgan Frost", "Aydar Suniev" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 146, "fitPct": -0.22639620162333074, "index": 99.77360379837667, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.753424657534248, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.315068493150685, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.794520547945204, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.931506849315069, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.917808219178083, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.287671232876713, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 43, "fitPct": 10.818053198805572, "index": 110.81805319880557, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.8604651162790697, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.565263623029622, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.899224806201552, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5309649899459572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.34108527131783, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.382574193772484, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.51162790697674, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.999220132336035, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.387596899224807, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5973104262934754, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.24012500494106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.22639620162333074, "zonePPFit": 10.818053198805572, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0379838061977447, "attemptProjection": 1.8214843722581107, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 7809.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.831818181818182, "projectedAttempts": 2.3636363636363638, "onNet": 0.5310369353019081, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 1650.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.447960544790789, "projectedAttempts": 0.8011507237497127, "onNet": 0.5598270919057027, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2338741124849826, "ppAdjusted": 0.6049508858338544, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9297340892279276, "baseline": 1.7073170731707317, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480028", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8407672828050492, "adjustedSOG": 1.8313996270476123, "reductionPct": 0.508899514074479, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2338741124849826, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2338741124849826, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2338741124849826, "afterRecentZones": 1.2338741124849826, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2338741124849826, "adjusted": 1.2338741124849826, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9932081139513, "newChartFactor": 0.9932081139513, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.86666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0415534969444176, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.384747837482286, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6049508858338544, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6049508858338544, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5893381262381259, "afterRecentZones": 0.6049508858338544, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5893381262381259, "adjusted": 0.5893381262381259, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.273148148148148, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8313996270476123, "adjustedSOG": 1.79477163450666, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 48, "beforeSOG": 1.79477163450666, "adjustedSOG": 1.79477163450666 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 305.0, "goalExpected": 0.23538251135901667, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23538251135901667, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2097314948725654, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851970330790594, "modelSOG": 1.79477163450666, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 307.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1270358306188925, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.127400418503171, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.22325757575757, "btb": { "id": "8480028", "name": "Morgan Frost", "score": 66.22325757575757, "components": { "Goal model": 72.14285714285714, "SOG model": 66.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 70.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 91.66666666666667, "Shot quality": 80.0, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 35.15, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7252488910170496, "unitPlayers": [ "Yegor Sharangovich", "Morgan Frost", "Aydar Suniev" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 16 } }, { "id": "8480029", "name": "Alex Formenton", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 13.780555555555557, "currentFiveTOI": 11.681944444444445, "ppShare": 0.010150812064965197, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04861111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.5270000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.12725, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12258547764044275, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 13.0, "goalExpected": 0.13275806585106867, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1305715301656704, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12432307736576473, "goalProbability": 0.12240628372036426, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.19167936454004691, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.0829836323717177, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.708120318630365, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.681944444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.010150812064965197, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05024395638519768, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9988205850658111, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 35.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0473353194306523, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1521389568808305, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2213700063048696, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.466140297600972, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Formenton", "Owen Michaels", "Trent Frederic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 5.071298562694352, "index": 105.07129856269435, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 53.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 7.379000210162317, "index": 107.37900021016232, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.071298562694352, "zonePPFit": 7.379000210162317, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2208333333333332, "attemptProjection": 0.9941576191816783, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8411.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.681944444444445, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5445710015853301, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 35.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05024395638519768, "projectedAttempts": 0.08613249666033887, "onNet": 0.5368424498346919, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9166746733414947, "ppAdjusted": 0.024154136249344406, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1074954762575058, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480029", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1074954762575058, "adjustedSOG": 1.0829836323717177, "reductionPct": 2.2132680820168726, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9166746733414947, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8961797413571926, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9166746733414947, "afterRecentZones": 0.9125658977965803, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9125658977965803, "adjusted": 0.8921628294557067, "playerFactor": 0.977642087667162, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1521389568808305, "newChartFactor": 1.1431576818698421, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.166666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8397563897763578, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0369741716468963, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.024154136249344406, "afterPlayerForm": 0.024154136249344406, "afterRecentDefense": 0.024154136249344406, "afterRecentZones": 0.024154136249344406, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.024154136249344406, "adjusted": 0.024154136249344406, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2213700063048696, "newChartFactor": 1.2213700063048696, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.43333333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3461538461538463, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0829836323717177, "adjustedSOG": 1.0829836323717177, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 106, "beforeSOG": 1.0829836323717177, "adjustedSOG": 1.0829836323717177 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.1130432915208919, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11306932176842432, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10688800489750686, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0023247623734679035 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852158973370031, "modelSOG": 1.0829836323717177, "historyGames": 12, "seasonGames": { "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 13.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12258547764044275, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 34.10930735930736, "btb": { "id": "8480029", "name": "Alex Formenton", "score": 34.10930735930736, "components": { "Goal model": 41.42857142857143, "SOG model": 25.0, "Unit attack": 3.3333333333333335, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 37.857142857142854, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7113960462604823, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Formenton", "Owen Michaels", "Trent Frederic" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 113 } }, { "id": "8480039", "name": "Martin Necas", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 2.641025641025641, "currentTOI": 19.97222222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 15.72638888888889, "ppShare": 0.5976158940397351, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 24.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.34, "currentIXG": 0.2783333333333333, "priorTOI": 21.498076923076923, "priorPPTOI": 3.8604700854700855, "deploymentChange": -1.5258547008547012, "ppTOIChange": -0.7271367521367522, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020573", "date": "20241228", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.083333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15999436501525327, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 424.0, "goalExpected": 0.3299687064597916, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3415555625567326, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28105376854729536, "goalProbability": 0.28933601978486073, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.8282251237565375, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.0623770495187976, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.769054137596044, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.574468085106384, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.72638888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5976158940397351, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7403178807947017, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 0.9872883796894324, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2256.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.198363035964382, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.158465710964743, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.629700854700854, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7047339085645536, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9603031698840081, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8829107447001973, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0640468052491108, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0412747189937561, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.182341650671785, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.329985652797705, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 5, "sogPerGame": 1.4 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020573", "date": "20241228", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020560", "date": "20241227", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020309", "date": "20241121", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 20.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020050", "date": "20241015", "team": "CAR", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.133333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 193, "fitPct": -3.9029751766600924, "index": 96.09702482333991, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.133772962788505, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 41 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.857277437588316, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.23551577955723, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.675930287329251, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.955723033443242, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.1417804992934526, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 83, "fitPct": 2.1348935083036906, "index": 102.13489350830369, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.895582329317268, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.960022095323765, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.485943775100402, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.1590643804079832, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.823293172690764, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.192601018350743, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.6425702811245, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.939172125610597, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.15261044176707, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.674751114086661, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.23947798786446, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.9029751766600924, "zonePPFit": 2.1348935083036906, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7678335741401172, "attemptProjection": 1.8116485921674086, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 11323.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.72638888888889, "projectedAttempts": 2.416666666666667, "onNet": 0.5108709757334812, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2256.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.7403178807947017, "projectedAttempts": 1.0203311258278145, "onNet": 0.5004656003505696, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0717422784006625, "ppAdjusted": 0.46799880475310063, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7897410831537628, "baseline": 2.641025641025641, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480039", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.130254906302514, "adjustedSOG": 2.0623770495187976, "reductionPct": 3.1863725126460074, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0717422784006625, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0430425845628408, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0464926293273065, "afterRecentZones": 1.0717422784006625, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0464926293273065, "adjusted": 1.018469084235804, "playerFactor": 0.9732214596585202, "defenseFactor": 0.9354553867176352, "oldChartFactor": 0.8829107447001973, "newChartFactor": 0.8778379135221925, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 77.33333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8414833531510106, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7016323446514028, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.46799880475310063, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4275884765114283, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4467147499622961, "afterRecentZones": 0.46799880475310063, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4467147499622961, "adjusted": 0.40814223761176455, "playerFactor": 0.9136529242569511, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1.0640468052491108, "newChartFactor": 1.0640468052491108, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.833333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.27312348668280867, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.0623770495187976, "adjustedSOG": 2.0623770495187976, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 37, "beforeSOG": 2.0623770495187976, "adjustedSOG": 2.0623770495187976 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 71.0, "goalHistoryShots": 424.0, "goalExpected": 0.3404443635767639, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3404443635767639, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2885458917815312, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12837047267992716, "modelSOG": 2.0623770495187976, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 78, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 71.0, "historyShots": 424.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16745283018867924, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15999436501525327, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.5105803111617, "btb": { "id": "8480039", "name": "Martin Necas", "score": 67.5105803111617, "components": { "Goal model": 92.14285714285714, "SOG model": 77.14285714285714, "Unit attack": 90.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 58.333333333333336, "Shot quality": 82.14285714285714, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 34.888888888888886, "Goalie H2H": 49.55277280858676 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.363313741275979, "unitPlayers": [ "Artturi Lehkonen", "Nathan MacKinnon", "Martin Necas" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 10 } }, { "id": "8480043", "name": "Timothy Liljegren", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.851063829787234, "currentTOI": 17.586666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 15.216666666666665, "ppShare": 0.0006951685783802572, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 47, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.003333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.285, "currentIXG": 0.028499999999999998, "priorTOI": 19.851773049645388, "priorPPTOI": 0.7645390070921985, "deploymentChange": -2.265106382978722, "ppTOIChange": -0.7612056737588652, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020469", "date": "20251209", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020599", "date": "20241231", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.357142857142858, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055802200521325396, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.036903008434746296, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.036903008434746296, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03623039166120889, "goalProbability": 0.03623039166120889, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.6613181575275588, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9715224534501643, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.216666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0006951685783802572, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0037124484830428524, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0036241774400185, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.874902874902875, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.009276437847866, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.429787234042553, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.17471605873334212, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787037037037037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9838577420150344, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0612909902291807, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.379064234734338, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.8 }, { "gameId": "2025020469", "date": "20251209", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020599", "date": "20241231", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020240", "date": "20241111", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.433333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Martin Fehervary", "Timothy Liljegren" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 63, "fitPct": -0.5380752661655208, "index": 99.46192473383448, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 66.47619047619048, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.2698412698412698, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.1746031746031744, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.444444444444446, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.634920634920634, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.5380752661655208, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5306454951145902, "attemptProjection": 0.6335401117896863, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 9130.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.216666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 1.6, "onNet": 0.3766952657120365, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0037124484830428524, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5820928034521382, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5820928034521382, "baseline": 0.851063829787234, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 47, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480043", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6896812139861765, "adjustedSOG": 0.6613181575275588, "reductionPct": 4.112487897805228, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5820928034521382, "afterPlayerForm": 0.561224809285506, "afterRecentDefense": 0.554707266914408, "afterRecentZones": 0.5820928034521382, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.554707266914408, "adjusted": 0.5348210426877754, "playerFactor": 0.964150056412185, "defenseFactor": 0.952953315390057, "oldChartFactor": 0.9838577420150344, "newChartFactor": 0.9838577420150344, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 72.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7822138450993832, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7775250740791325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6613181575275588, "adjustedSOG": 0.6613181575275588, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 136, "beforeSOG": 0.6613181575275588, "adjustedSOG": 0.6613181575275588 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 147.0, "goalExpected": 0.029184057488095244, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.030218600300172618, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02876231555433376, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.10042673968830018 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783143528767373, "modelSOG": 0.6613181575275588, "historyGames": 125, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 47, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 147.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05442176870748299, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055802200521325396, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 29.550745341614906, "btb": { "id": "8480043", "name": "Timothy Liljegren", "score": 29.550745341614906, "components": { "Goal model": 5.714285714285714, "SOG model": 3.5714285714285716, "Unit attack": 56.52173913043478, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 10.714285714285714, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 43.371428571428574, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.476379847444047, "unitPlayers": [ "Martin Fehervary", "Timothy Liljegren" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 129 } }, { "id": "8480069", "name": "Cale Makar", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 2.6533333333333333, "currentTOI": 22.115151515151517, "currentFiveTOI": 15.360606060606061, "ppShare": 0.7574357493502744, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 28.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.9742424242424246, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.865, "currentIXG": 0.16954545454545455, "priorTOI": 24.847555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 3.9259999999999997, "deploymentChange": -2.732404040404038, "ppTOIChange": 0.048242424242424864, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 25.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 24.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 25.333333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10248346100212184, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 473.0, "goalExpected": 0.2175108374480847, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2251487337809698, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19548111405907734, "goalProbability": 0.2016025387451595, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.612142468608215, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.1223994127557937, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.101992503452357, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.607319862752574, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.360606060606061, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7574357493502744, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.4731585089999037, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.0019232912258917, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2623.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3463.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.940074250928137, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.7809475292919, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.777555555555555, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.7166964809384163, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9298540965207632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9217877944579048, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8012365924800179, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.857128156799522, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.843991720230962, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.164191769198133, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 25.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 27.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 24.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 25.333333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 204, "fitPct": -2.6070735180698392, "index": 97.39292648193016, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 51.622718052738335, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 105 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.275185936443543, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 12.197430696416497, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.471264367816093, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.168356997971603, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 45 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.265043948613928, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 85, "fitPct": -6.625446917332738, "index": 93.37455308266726, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 94.3529411764706, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.960022095323765, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 73 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.8235294117647065, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.1590643804079832, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.4705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.192601018350743, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.4705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.939172125610597, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4117647058823533, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.674751114086661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4705882352941177, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.23947798786446, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.6070735180698392, "zonePPFit": -6.625446917332738, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.1220336384620504, "attemptProjection": 1.9667918757065048, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 42.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 10138.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.360606060606061, "projectedAttempts": 3.8181818181818183, "onNet": 0.43328138627167834, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2623.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.4731585089999037, "projectedAttempts": 1.0328111464048513, "onNet": 0.4396135265700483, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.5034568247882492, "ppAdjusted": 0.4500468413869377, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.0444127570842774, "baseline": 2.6533333333333333, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480069", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2879809875839, "adjustedSOG": 2.2821499061890256, "reductionPct": 0.25485707383574585, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.5034568247882492, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5034568247882492, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5034568247882492, "afterRecentZones": 1.5034568247882492, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5034568247882492, "adjusted": 1.5034568247882492, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9217877944579048, "newChartFactor": 0.9217877944579048, "playerRecentAttempts": 23.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 76.21666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2140305936500995, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0391569742827893, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4500468413869377, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4500468413869377, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4403283723954803, "afterRecentZones": 0.4500468413869377, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4403283723954803, "adjusted": 0.4403283723954803, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 0.8012365924800179, "newChartFactor": 0.7950969551774691, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.716666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.257688882800192, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.2821499061890256, "adjustedSOG": 2.2821499061890256, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 26, "beforeSOG": 2.2821499061890256, "adjustedSOG": 2.1223994127557937 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 53.0, "goalHistoryShots": 472.0, "goalExpected": 0.24787337774043827, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24787337774043827, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21954123952658014, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057230231542158144, "modelSOG": 2.1223994127557937, "historyGames": 166, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 75, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 53.0, "historyShots": 473.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11205073995771671, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10248346100212184, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.773496360397274, "btb": { "id": "8480069", "name": "Cale Makar", "score": 62.773496360397274, "components": { "Goal model": 70.0, "SOG model": 82.14285714285714, "Unit attack": 95.65217391304348, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 58.333333333333336, "Shot quality": 55.714285714285715, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 47.46666666666667, "Goalie H2H": 45.87737843551797 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3336113755596957, "unitPlayers": [ "Devon Toews", "Cale Makar" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 27 } }, { "id": "8480192", "name": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "priorSOG": 0.8823529411764706, "currentTOI": 15.928571428571429, "currentFiveTOI": 15.159523809523808, "ppShare": 0.004227053140096618, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 34, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.86 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.245, "currentIXG": 0.034999999999999996, "priorTOI": 17.866666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.03970588235294118, "deploymentChange": -1.9380952380952383, "ppTOIChange": -0.023039215686274515, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.03204948376959206, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 112.0, "goalExpected": 0.026874992137007097, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.027356903582738363, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.026517073061281794, "goalProbability": 0.026986092603977548, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0469019542695754, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.8385468025074893, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.3924925396576096, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.159523809523808, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004227053140096618, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.02006676060118089, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9969135802469136, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 7.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1656.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0101010101010102, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0260584553363556, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.036422682157935, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.078164825828377, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.666666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.033333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brenden Dillon", "Johnathan Kovacevic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 52, "fitPct": 0.8686151778785245, "index": 100.86861517787852, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 90.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3076923076923084, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8686151778785245, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8883622989925156, "attemptProjection": 0.7963858032616713, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 6367.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.159523809523808, "projectedAttempts": 1.857142857142857, "onNet": 0.41050615138086366, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 7.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.02006676060118089, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8423740511270934, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8423740511270934, "baseline": 0.8823529411764706, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 34, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480192", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8583656071468442, "adjustedSOG": 0.8556600025586625, "reductionPct": 0.31520421667113885, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8423740511270934, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8423740511270934, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8423740511270934, "afterRecentZones": 0.8378647101467904, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8378647101467904, "adjusted": 0.8378647101467904, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0260584553363556, "newChartFactor": 1.0156418776718557, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.63333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0792622978607995, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3247605265715614, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8556600025586625, "adjustedSOG": 0.8385468025074893, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 126, "beforeSOG": 0.8385468025074893, "adjustedSOG": 0.8385468025074893 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 111.0, "goalExpected": 0.02434659966894797, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.024167705957813014, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0240526119114152, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.017460646766146587 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057944905591535166, "modelSOG": 0.8385468025074893, "historyGames": 122, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 34, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 112.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.008928571428571428, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.03204948376959206, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 28.10759566520436, "btb": { "id": "8480192", "name": "Johnathan Kovacevic", "score": 28.10759566520436, "components": { "Goal model": 2.857142857142857, "SOG model": 10.714285714285714, "Unit attack": 69.56521739130434, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 17.857142857142858, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 48.61538461538461, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.755478334183742, "unitPlayers": [ "Brenden Dillon", "Johnathan Kovacevic" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 136 } }, { "id": "8480220", "name": "Noah Cates", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "priorSOG": 1.6097560975609757, "currentTOI": 13.072619047619048, "currentFiveTOI": 10.545238095238094, "ppShare": 0.0399903637677668, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.1976190476190476, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.86 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.739, "currentIXG": 0.12421428571428572, "priorTOI": 16.24329268292683, "priorPPTOI": 1.986178861788618, "deploymentChange": -3.1706736353077805, "ppTOIChange": -1.7885598141695704, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.7 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13516808084543727, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 254.0, "goalExpected": 0.14840162701250575, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14840162701250575, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1379151911425466, "goalProbability": 0.1379151911425466, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.0979043727209596, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.064122826823211, "Current_PP_SOG60": 21.686746987951807, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.545238095238094, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0399903637677668, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.20901630129286114, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.07142857142857142, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9734807759894489, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 166.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4151.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.616695745537512, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.946786737617684, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.115447154471545, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.46645282010157707, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9090689562650927, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0778750407987703, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8135372389918394, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9798627383231323, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.2284539715166645, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 26.666666666666668, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.7 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.516666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 126, "fitPct": 2.595834693292346, "index": 102.59583469329235, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.992673992673993, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.11965811965812, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.691086691086692, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.97313797313797, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.837606837606837, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 16.385836385836384, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 42, "fitPct": -6.215425366938689, "index": 93.78457463306131, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.6190476190476195, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 88.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.9047619047619049, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.595834693292346, "zonePPFit": -6.215425366938689, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8355463789756894, "attemptProjection": 0.8652133567780567, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 8858.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.545238095238094, "projectedAttempts": 1.2857142857142856, "onNet": 0.5199824571021325, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 166.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.20901630129286114, "projectedAttempts": 0.15109612141652612, "onNet": 0.5198038158160857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7032441297840948, "ppAdjusted": 0.07570716666420693, "other": 0.07142857142857142 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.850379867876873, "baseline": 1.6097560975609757, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480220", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1541303597505141, "adjustedSOG": 1.1203105844091426, "reductionPct": 2.9303254225703235, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7032441297840948, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6760591667296265, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6747186420465712, "afterRecentZones": 0.7032441297840948, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6747186420465712, "adjusted": 0.6486363747664613, "playerFactor": 0.9613434909683293, "defenseFactor": 0.9594372899404346, "oldChartFactor": 1.0778750407987703, "newChartFactor": 1.0778750407987703, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7329626319796115, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8085007776538419, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.07570716666420693, "afterPlayerForm": 0.07467151189223634, "afterRecentDefense": 0.07497425821716625, "afterRecentZones": 0.07570716666420693, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.07497425821716625, "adjusted": 0.07394862944622091, "playerFactor": 0.9863202545068929, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 0.8135372389918394, "newChartFactor": 0.8135372389918394, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1203105844091426, "adjustedSOG": 1.0979043727209596, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 104, "beforeSOG": 1.0979043727209596, "adjustedSOG": 1.0979043727209596 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 253.0, "goalExpected": 0.14859060346672748, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14694178669144684, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13807808948050296, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14223235582908889 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849500619284793, "modelSOG": 1.0979043727209596, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 82, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 254.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1377952755905512, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13516808084543727, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 43.058571428571426, "btb": { "id": "8480220", "name": "Noah Cates", "score": 43.058571428571426, "components": { "Goal model": 48.57142857142857, "SOG model": 26.428571428571427, "Unit attack": 50.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 36.42857142857143, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.86666666666667, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.434890517352242, "unitPlayers": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 83 } }, { "id": "8480259", "name": "Ben Jones", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.275, "currentFiveTOI": 11.491666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 28.0, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.086, "currentIXG": 0.043, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020418", "date": "20251202", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020706", "date": "20250115", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020467", "date": "20241212", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.833333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09237552428135093, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.021758726095202616, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02305380556042494, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02152371263196224, "goalProbability": 0.02279009696776381, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.12663843358015694, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.23554644224731439, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.491666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 0.9775426619938402, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 403.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9085298924311536, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9526748216815494, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8655335532642064, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020418", "date": "20251202", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020706", "date": "20250115", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 6.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020467", "date": "20241212", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 34, "fitPct": -1.5775059439483528, "index": 98.42249405605165, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 69.41176470588235, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.76470588235294, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1764705882352942, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.5775059439483528, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.48070702499451917, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1379.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.491666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.4876693669797118, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.24035351249725959, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.24035351249725959, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 28.0, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480259", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.24035351249725959, "adjustedSOG": 0.24035351249725959, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.24035351249725959, "afterPlayerForm": 0.24035351249725959, "afterRecentDefense": 0.24035351249725959, "afterRecentZones": 0.24035351249725959, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.24035351249725959, "adjusted": 0.24035351249725959, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9526748216815494, "newChartFactor": 0.9526748216815494, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 22.983333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.384747837482286, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.24035351249725959, "adjustedSOG": 0.23554644224731439, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.23554644224731439, "adjustedSOG": 0.23554644224731439 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.023116807050058252, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023116807050058252, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.022851660708015233, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856328642202638, "modelSOG": 0.23554644224731439, "historyGames": 56, "seasonGames": { "2024": 26, "2025": 28, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 50.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.02, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09237552428135093, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480448", "name": "Parker Kelly", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.2682926829268293, "currentTOI": 12.916666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 10.809722222222222, "ppShare": 0.002119205298013245, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.011111111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.069, "currentIXG": 0.08908333333333333, "priorTOI": 12.702642276422763, "priorPPTOI": 0.03394308943089431, "deploymentChange": 0.21402439024390318, "ppTOIChange": -0.022831978319783196, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.033333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1360301291808141, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 215.0, "goalExpected": 0.14425562311775153, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14932116149614202, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13433356457905832, "goalProbability": 0.138707543498622, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4373978919563676, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.0604681770610092, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.550558910445844, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.809722222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.002119205298013245, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.009717439293598234, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 0.9872883796894324, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.380616637126775, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 21.55688622754491, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.435569105691057, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.006196355768543022, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9550419788751467, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9051513752034823, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8644575605558942, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.965202982601491, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.033333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Parker Kelly", "Fedor Svechkov", "Logan O'Connor" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 132, "fitPct": -3.161620826550589, "index": 96.83837917344941, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.63157894736842, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.971291866028707, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 21.594896331738436, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.716108452950557, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.9760765550239245, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.110047846889952, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.161620826550589, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8644575605558942, "attemptProjection": 1.0432296867816844, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 7783.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.809722222222222, "projectedAttempts": 2.5833333333333335, "onNet": 0.46121984053018533, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.009717439293598234, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9538436236687893, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9538436236687893, "baseline": 1.2682926829268293, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480448", "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0796232473720053, "adjustedSOG": 1.0604681770610092, "reductionPct": 1.7742365549855532, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9538436236687893, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9219185064837957, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9538436236687893, "afterRecentZones": 0.9538436236687893, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9538436236687893, "adjusted": 0.9219185064837957, "playerFactor": 0.9665300302976296, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9051513752034823, "newChartFactor": 0.9051513752034823, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.63333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7659076147926548, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0636926250644663, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0604681770610092, "adjustedSOG": 1.0604681770610092, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 107, "beforeSOG": 1.0604681770610092, "adjustedSOG": 1.0604681770610092 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 30.0, "goalHistoryShots": 215.0, "goalExpected": 0.16977083626117104, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16977083626117104, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15614182386527548, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849490691956444, "modelSOG": 1.0604681770610092, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 30.0, "historyShots": 215.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13953488372093023, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1360301291808141, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 45.1386425159681, "btb": { "id": "8480448", "name": "Parker Kelly", "score": 45.1386425159681, "components": { "Goal model": 45.714285714285715, "SOG model": 24.285714285714285, "Unit attack": 60.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 22.857142857142858, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 65.33333333333333, "Goalie H2H": 47.07149009474591 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4909034769007357, "unitPlayers": [ "Parker Kelly", "Fedor Svechkov", "Logan O'Connor" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 76 } }, { "id": "8480727", "name": "Zach Whitecloud", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0909090909090908, "priorSOG": 0.8589743589743589, "currentTOI": 20.37878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 16.081818181818182, "ppShare": 0.004212299915754001, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.01515151515151515, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.09 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.24200000000000002, "currentIXG": 0.022000000000000002, "priorTOI": 20.316666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.06196581196581196, "deploymentChange": 0.062121212121212466, "ppTOIChange": -0.04681429681429681, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020570", "date": "20251221", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021189", "date": "20250401", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020477", "date": "20241214", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020207", "date": "20241106", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04696508513227577, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.04449503636995544, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04714338111472223, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.043519652303571035, "goalProbability": 0.04604939071757342, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2529738414002385, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9474067010554009, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.070096099491238, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.081818181818182, "Current_PP_Share": 0.004212299915754001, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.01483612451388357, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.01231993739639, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 10.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.723977593087541, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.413793103448276, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.508333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.01645376409260051, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0471380471380471, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9896254544700923, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.036274465791915, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.202846975088968, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 24.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020570", "date": "20251221", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021189", "date": "20250401", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 21.15 }, { "gameId": "2024020477", "date": "20241214", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020207", "date": "20241106", "team": "VGK", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jacob Middleton", "Zach Whitecloud" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 99, "fitPct": -0.34581818433025546, "index": 99.65418181566974, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.88311688311688, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 63 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.0202020202020203, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.6161616161616161, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.0202020202020203, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.346320346320347, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.113997113997114, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -0.34581818433025546, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1304812354093616, "attemptProjection": 1.0249371539384475, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 10614.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.081818181818182, "projectedAttempts": 2.5454545454545454, "onNet": 0.4084857376537745, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 10.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.01483612451388357, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0777091946739046, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0777091946739046, "baseline": 0.8589743589743589, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480727", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9902152603940864, "adjustedSOG": 0.9667415316891846, "reductionPct": 2.3705682636682046, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0777091946739046, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0777091946739046, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0529393588796794, "afterRecentZones": 1.0630185015700642, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0385863134990685, "adjusted": 1.0385863134990685, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9770162155833513, "oldChartFactor": 0.9896254544700923, "newChartFactor": 0.9639049322995418, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 75.51666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.003941104139736, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8945910632623657, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.16666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9667415316891846, "adjustedSOG": 0.9474067010554009, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 114, "beforeSOG": 0.9474067010554009, "adjustedSOG": 0.9474067010554009 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.04817495294398745, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04817495294398745, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.047032951898395715, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05788236368201219, "modelSOG": 0.9474067010554009, "historyGames": 163, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.039735099337748346, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04696508513227577, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 31.37039192899331, "btb": { "id": "8480727", "name": "Zach Whitecloud", "score": 31.37039192899331, "components": { "Goal model": 8.571428571428571, "SOG model": 19.285714285714285, "Unit attack": 26.08695652173913, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 2.857142857142857, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 44.8, "Goalie H2H": 50.43319653442772 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0532240515088933, "unitPlayers": [ "Jacob Middleton", "Zach Whitecloud" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 122 } }, { "id": "8480796", "name": "Martin Fehervary", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.4, "priorSOG": 0.9012345679012346, "currentTOI": 22.1, "currentFiveTOI": 17.398333333333333, "ppShare": 0.03232533889468196, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.155, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.013, "currentIXG": 0.10129999999999999, "priorTOI": 19.281275720164608, "priorPPTOI": 0.043621399176954734, "deploymentChange": 2.8187242798353935, "ppTOIChange": 0.11137860082304527, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.8 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 0.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.357142857142858, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0623690532716755, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 153.0, "goalExpected": 0.041165651317024717, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.041165651317024717, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04032985384339488, "goalProbability": 0.04032985384339488, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.6600332882673373, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.0345818564996647, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.398333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03232533889468196, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.17262885446149265, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0036241774400185, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 93.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.227860437918264, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.834362139917694, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009968567816595783, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787037037037037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0568301314236652, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1400065769523797, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0.44047473387984826, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 21.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.15 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.8 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 19.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 18.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Martin Fehervary", "Timothy Liljegren" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 101, "fitPct": 1.894337714122173, "index": 101.89433771412217, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.366336633663366, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.96039603960396, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.1683168316831685, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.544554455445545, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.1881188118811883, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.772277227722771, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.894337714122173, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.4420019730857139, "attemptProjection": 0.5958825879531677, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 10439.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.398333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.2999999999999998, "onNet": 0.36288710376181604, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 93.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.17262885446149265, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4189422805194408, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.1 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5189422805194408, "baseline": 0.9012345679012346, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8480796", "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.5, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6718591954721582, "adjustedSOG": 0.6600332882673373, "reductionPct": 1.7601764304959855, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4189422805194408, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4189422805194408, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3992324351780725, "afterRecentZones": 0.4189422805194408, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3992324351780725, "adjusted": 0.3992324351780725, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.952953315390057, "oldChartFactor": 1.0568301314236652, "newChartFactor": 1.0568301314236652, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 90.18333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3356126409166513, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7775250740791325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.8666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6600332882673373, "adjustedSOG": 0.6600332882673373, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 137, "beforeSOG": 0.6600332882673373, "adjustedSOG": 0.6600332882673373 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.013554863725802644, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.014035368770104239, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.013463410240000967, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.047392193770847725 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05779370477733903, "modelSOG": 0.6600332882673373, "historyGames": 172, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 81, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 153.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06535947712418301, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0623690532716755, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 29.977888198757764, "btb": { "id": "8480796", "name": "Martin Fehervary", "score": 29.977888198757764, "components": { "Goal model": 7.857142857142857, "SOG model": 2.857142857142857, "Unit attack": 56.52173913043478, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 30.714285714285715, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 30.266666666666666, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.476379847444047, "unitPlayers": [ "Martin Fehervary", "Timothy Liljegren" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 127 } }, { "id": "8480797", "name": "Joel Farabee", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.3636363636363638, "priorSOG": 1.7317073170731707, "currentTOI": 19.02121212121212, "currentFiveTOI": 12.9, "ppShare": 0.7228306655433867, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.6, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.611, "currentIXG": 0.32827272727272727, "priorTOI": 16.91727642276423, "priorPPTOI": 1.0733739837398373, "deploymentChange": 2.1039356984478914, "ppTOIChange": 1.5266260162601628, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11183226833682999, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 319.0, "goalExpected": 0.23086038446719762, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24460119548474696, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20614970786995834, "goalProbability": 0.21698325340325905, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.083354553330071, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.0643450043583513, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.6109936575052854, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.293706293706293, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.9, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7228306655433867, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.545878966582421, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 0.9926130288982566, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1716.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.305697252781021, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.180268888468094, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.228455284552846, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.285012682821523, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1248532996298637, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9244188566444371, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.130952499743372, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.039835601136561, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.15797992877954, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.038123167155425, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 17.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.5 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020056", "date": "20241015", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 13.5 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Farabee", "Mikael Backlund", "Matt Coronato" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 161, "fitPct": -2.5193714451854277, "index": 97.48062855481457, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.578117534639274, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.435738174868607, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.80076445293837, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 54 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.044911610129, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.64357381748686, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.4968944099378882, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": 4.365083324779064, "index": 104.36508332477906, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.565263623029622, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5309649899459572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.382574193772484, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.999220132336035, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.499999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5973104262934754, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.24012500494106, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.5193714451854277, "zonePPFit": 4.365083324779064, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.4632023974790354, "attemptProjection": 2.3438916022944736, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 8514.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.9, "projectedAttempts": 3.181818181818182, "onNet": 0.5070850989027256, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1716.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.545878966582421, "projectedAttempts": 0.5341004824998086, "onNet": 0.5088460086808831, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6459834330300214, "ppAdjusted": 0.3030181123112786, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.4035469998867542, "baseline": 1.7317073170731707, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480797", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.134811126761321, "adjustedSOG": 2.1064744942432156, "reductionPct": 1.3273601661002332, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6459834330300214, "afterPlayerForm": 1.616465743280797, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6459834330300214, "afterRecentZones": 1.6459834330300214, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6459834330300214, "adjusted": 1.616465743280797, "playerFactor": 0.9820668366662193, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9244188566444371, "newChartFactor": 0.9244188566444371, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.18333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8843417294209295, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0120626170240905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3030181123112786, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2928664696401125, "afterRecentDefense": 0.29519772713381687, "afterRecentZones": 0.3030181123112786, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.29519772713381687, "adjusted": 0.2853080811969942, "playerFactor": 0.9664982314300151, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1.130952499743372, "newChartFactor": 1.130952499743372, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.983333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7951807228915663, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.1064744942432156, "adjustedSOG": 2.0643450043583513, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 36, "beforeSOG": 2.0643450043583513, "adjustedSOG": 2.0643450043583513 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 33.0, "goalHistoryShots": 317.0, "goalExpected": 0.2267456016403422, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2267456016403422, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20287645658011266, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857720433131767, "modelSOG": 2.0643450043583513, "historyGames": 174, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 319.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10658307210031348, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11183226833682999, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 67.16129548859713, "btb": { "id": "8480797", "name": "Joel Farabee", "score": 67.16129548859713, "components": { "Goal model": 72.85714285714286, "SOG model": 77.85714285714286, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 91.66666666666667, "Shot quality": 87.14285714285714, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 33.95, "Goalie H2H": 50.227998176014594 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6258325117182384, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Farabee", "Mikael Backlund", "Matt Coronato" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 12 } }, { "id": "8480803", "name": "Evan Bouchard", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 3.0, "priorSOG": 2.6951219512195124, "currentTOI": 26.49722222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 20.258333333333333, "ppShare": 0.7523201856148491, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 36.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.602777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.00 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.269, "currentIXG": 0.18908333333333335, "priorTOI": 24.677845528455283, "priorPPTOI": 3.478252032520325, "deploymentChange": 1.8193766937669373, "ppTOIChange": 0.12452574525745286, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 26.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 29.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 28.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 26.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08066018263386684, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 492.0, "goalExpected": 0.2254404645456679, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22172744253452434, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20183542187582582, "goalProbability": 0.19886631045184539, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.29691114239804306, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.794941161601239, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.4171122994652405, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.939090208172706, "Current_5v5_Min": 20.258333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7523201856148491, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.723794938948651, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4166666666666667, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9968813884137818, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2594.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.572569239506888, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.307953018173318, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.25142276422764, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.8540358722015391, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0388007054673722, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.15237555790017, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1137139287359994, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1151055458048929, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.872219053051911, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.809264305177111, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 26.416666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 29.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 23.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 28.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 26.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 24.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 24.283333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mattias Ekholm", "Evan Bouchard" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 46, "priorAttempts": 203, "fitPct": 5.079185263338999, "index": 105.079185263339, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 78.84986078389376, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 39, "priorAttempts": 142 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.961233668879846, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.274791175840651, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7733990147783252, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.549582351681302, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5911330049261085, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 66, "fitPct": 3.7904642911999815, "index": 103.79046429119998, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 56.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.06060606060606, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.6060606060606061, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.348484848484848, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.318181818181818, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.079185263338999, "zonePPFit": 3.7904642911999815, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 3.3885674568331594, "attemptProjection": 3.285905592632012, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 68.0, "sog": 26.0, "seconds": 14586.0, "expectedMinutes": 20.258333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 5.666666666666667, "onNet": 0.38866006387283397, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 2594.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.723794938948651, "projectedAttempts": 1.2058549532447445, "onNet": 0.4014945652173913, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.427550735227772, "ppAdjusted": 0.49301912283814703, "other": 0.4166666666666667 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 3.3372365247325857, "baseline": 2.6951219512195124, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480803", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.080390695327356, "adjustedSOG": 3.0053130769905794, "reductionPct": 2.4372758446083442, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.427550735227772, "afterPlayerForm": 2.320772603678245, "afterRecentDefense": 2.427550735227772, "afterRecentZones": 2.42515021023991, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.42515021023991, "adjusted": 2.31847766806869, "playerFactor": 0.9560140474100087, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.15237555790017, "newChartFactor": 1.1501551113539696, "playerRecentAttempts": 24.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 110.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.774018944519621, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.157696537898326, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.49301912283814703, "afterPlayerForm": 0.47734014255237756, "afterRecentDefense": 0.49301912283814703, "afterRecentZones": 0.49262941284202877, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.49262941284202877, "adjusted": 0.47696282610260116, "playerFactor": 0.9681980281099224, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1137139287359994, "newChartFactor": 1.1119063710069423, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8105236845394327, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 3.0053130769905794, "adjustedSOG": 3.0053130769905794, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 8, "beforeSOG": 3.0053130769905794, "adjustedSOG": 2.794941161601239 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 490.0, "goalExpected": 0.21388282901651057, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2139320793780962, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19255701163075148, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.003976587988693825 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05750828119249172, "modelSOG": 2.794941161601239, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 42.0, "historyShots": 492.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08536585365853659, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08066018263386684, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 58.91997131657573, "btb": { "id": "8480803", "name": "Evan Bouchard", "score": 58.91997131657573, "components": { "Goal model": 70.71428571428571, "SOG model": 95.0, "Unit attack": 78.26086956521739, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 66.66666666666667, "Shot quality": 62.857142857142854, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 42.258823529411764, "Goalie H2H": 49.55277280858676 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.794323471405397, "unitPlayers": [ "Mattias Ekholm", "Evan Bouchard" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 40 } }, { "id": "8480834", "name": "Ty Emberson", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.8, "priorSOG": 0.6388888888888888, "currentTOI": 11.816666666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.605, "ppShare": 0.0007446016381236039, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 72, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.003333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.80 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.27699999999999997, "currentIXG": 0.027699999999999995, "priorTOI": 15.52037037037037, "priorPPTOI": 0.0125, "deploymentChange": -3.703703703703704, "ppTOIChange": -0.009166666666666667, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.045315635832877205, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.034400553366751525, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.033833973573262885, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03381558130341812, "goalProbability": 0.03326800562699247, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.054757567642565314, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.7591320906015708, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.136148211977596, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.605, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0007446016381236039, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.003685590077995141, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9968813884137818, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2686.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.65278050697583, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.136111111111111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.003069199213486511, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0388007054673722, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.165977165401225, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.8950542822677927, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.833333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.466666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "Ty Emberson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 60, "fitPct": 5.53257218004083, "index": 105.53257218004083, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.48717948717949, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.897435897435898, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.6666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.615384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.53257218004083, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9199999999999999, "attemptProjection": 0.7586311930048333, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 6963.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.605, "projectedAttempts": 1.7, "onNet": 0.41584906771633445, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.003685590077995141, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8393155965024166, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8393155965024166, "baseline": 0.6388888888888888, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 72, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480834", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7591449134570055, "adjustedSOG": 0.7591320906015708, "reductionPct": 0.0016891182707534647, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8393155965024166, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8393155965024166, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8393155965024166, "afterRecentZones": 0.8392942250766922, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8392942250766922, "adjusted": 0.8392942250766922, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.165977165401225, "newChartFactor": 1.1659229945438625, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1679162683037287, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.157696537898326, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.7591320906015708, "adjustedSOG": 0.7591320906015708, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 132, "beforeSOG": 0.7591320906015708, "adjustedSOG": 0.7591320906015708 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.028386987300869984, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02839352391437619, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.027987862345572562, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0006353646901498256 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05788177339901478, "modelSOG": 0.7591320906015708, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 72, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.034482758620689655, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.045315635832877205, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 20.953474025974028, "btb": { "id": "8480834", "name": "Ty Emberson", "score": 20.953474025974028, "components": { "Goal model": 5.0, "SOG model": 6.428571428571429, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 10.0, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 37.85, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.2074998907318126, "unitPlayers": [ "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "Ty Emberson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 143 } }, { "id": "8480842", "name": "Filip Hallander", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 1.6923076923076923, "currentTOI": 10.183333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 9.53888888888889, "ppShare": 0.15282880235121235, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5777777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.752, "currentIXG": 0.12533333333333332, "priorTOI": 13.142307692307693, "priorPPTOI": 0.3435897435897436, "deploymentChange": -2.958974358974359, "ppTOIChange": 0.23418803418803424, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1142553672163982, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.1407832023711205, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13846449206214065, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13132238146734876, "goalProbability": 0.12930583272538268, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20165487419660788, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.2321802100069303, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.241700640652301, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.53888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.15282880235121235, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7564639785065942, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9988205850658111, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 208.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1361.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.233500326726203, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.77179487179487, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07799778244382642, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0473353194306523, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.153931728358138, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.669724770642202, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": 5.131057611937933, "index": 105.13105761193793, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.442396313364057, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.308755760368662, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 48.94009216589862, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.447004608294932, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.2903225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.131057611937933, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9583333333333335, "attemptProjection": 0.8925237769461778, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3434.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.53888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 1.6666666666666667, "onNet": 0.49902810174386314, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 208.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7564639785065942, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9254285551397556, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9254285551397556, "baseline": 1.6923076923076923, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 13, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480842", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 1.2321802100069303, "adjustedSOG": 1.2321802100069303, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "player log snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2321802100069303, "adjustedSOG": 1.2321802100069303, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2321802100069303, "adjustedSOG": 1.2321802100069303 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.12716980448200144, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12719908761278062, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11941586723127377, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.002578588277440952 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853197738131766, "modelSOG": 1.2321802100069303, "historyGames": 21, "seasonGames": { "2025": 13, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 30.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06666666666666667, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1142553672163982, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480860", "name": "Kevin Bahl", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.9090909090909091, "priorSOG": 0.75, "currentTOI": 22.150000000000002, "currentFiveTOI": 18.44848484848485, "ppShare": 0.020219039595619208, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07272727272727274, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.544, "currentIXG": 0.04945454545454546, "priorTOI": 21.948684210526313, "priorPPTOI": 0.2605263157894737, "deploymentChange": 0.20131578947368922, "ppTOIChange": -0.18779904306220097, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 26.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 0.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0553550502363213, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.04449757512063649, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04714607097185408, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04352208056562278, "goalProbability": 0.04605195670497216, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.25298761393493796, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.8038575510394775, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3653088042049935, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.44848484848485, "Current_PP_Share": 0.020219039595619208, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07121339766664114, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.18181818181818182, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.01231993739639, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 48.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.2761538835659745, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.0359649122807, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06917747712689355, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0471380471380471, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9161443441520492, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9593295994319437, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.3375825704021325, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.3333333333333335 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 26.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 24.7 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 23.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kevin Bahl", "Simon Nemec" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 76, "fitPct": -2.7951885282650295, "index": 97.20481147173497, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 50.526315789473685, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 58 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.052631578947368, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.631578947368421, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.68421052631579, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.578947368421053, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5263157894736842, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.7951885282650295, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8795124359505047, "attemptProjection": 0.9202897656820601, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 12176.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.44848484848485, "projectedAttempts": 1.9090909090909092, "onNet": 0.3924209512252734, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 48.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07121339766664114, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7180829189981006, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.18181818181818182 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8999011008162824, "baseline": 0.75, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480860", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8399406604897695, "adjustedSOG": 0.8202628071831404, "reductionPct": 2.3427670825168723, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7180829189981006, "afterPlayerForm": 0.706529915361566, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7015786559945704, "afterRecentZones": 0.7128767385697207, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6964921332947906, "adjusted": 0.6852864968203854, "playerFactor": 0.9839113237052709, "defenseFactor": 0.9770162155833513, "oldChartFactor": 0.9161443441520492, "newChartFactor": 0.9024718429788039, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 95.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9126068055763754, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8945910632623657, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.7833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8202628071831404, "adjustedSOG": 0.8038575510394775, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 131, "beforeSOG": 0.8038575510394775, "adjustedSOG": 0.8038575510394775 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.05187341923886461, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.05187341923886461, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0505509587808561, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783407508844003, "modelSOG": 0.8038575510394775, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 76, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 149.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.053691275167785234, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0553550502363213, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 36.617649549938555, "btb": { "id": "8480860", "name": "Kevin Bahl", "score": 36.617649549938555, "components": { "Goal model": 9.285714285714286, "SOG model": 7.142857142857143, "Unit attack": 82.6086956521739, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 12.142857142857142, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 39.294117647058826, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8134853517695593, "unitPlayers": [ "Kevin Bahl", "Simon Nemec" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 108 } }, { "id": "8480870", "name": "Bo Groulx", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 1.1538461538461537, "currentTOI": 8.322222222222221, "currentFiveTOI": 7.766666666666667, "ppShare": 0.02546419098143236, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.13333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.061, "currentIXG": 0.010166666666666666, "priorTOI": 15.692307692307692, "priorPPTOI": 0.34102564102564104, "deploymentChange": -7.3700854700854705, "ppTOIChange": -0.2076923076923077, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13433024646005529, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.10132466011931336, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10132466011931336, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09636039048643305, "goalProbability": 0.09636039048643305, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.754295199997593, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8626609442060085, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.766666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.02546419098143236, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.10547176960970064, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 0.989856514368911, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 48.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1885.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.615877764718453, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.998717948717948, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.09165152587268958, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1427281754987813, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1609702219734634, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8626609442060085, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bo Groulx", "Colton Sissons", "Vinni Lettieri" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": 5.365674065782116, "index": 105.36567406578212, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.444444444444445, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.555555555555555, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 11.11111111111111, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 28.888888888888886, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.365674065782116, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.575, "attemptProjection": 0.48658328373214954, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 2796.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.766666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 0.8333333333333334, "onNet": 0.5156146742353639, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 48.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.10547176960970064, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5307916418660747, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5307916418660747, "baseline": 1.1538461538461537, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 13, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480870", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7800134466581063, "adjustedSOG": 0.7696889795893807, "reductionPct": 1.3236268057890355, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5307916418660747, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5135841967515319, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5307916418660747, "afterRecentZones": 0.5307916418660747, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5307916418660747, "adjusted": 0.5135841967515319, "playerFactor": 0.967581544701707, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1609702219734634, "newChartFactor": 1.1609702219734634, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 38.61666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7240397065170479, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4848349487486736, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7696889795893807, "adjustedSOG": 0.754295199997593, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 133, "beforeSOG": 0.754295199997593, "adjustedSOG": 0.754295199997593 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 18.0, "goalExpected": 0.0994615389972167, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09832253120809814, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09467523110262738, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10317594429319343 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850969082286526, "modelSOG": 0.754295199997593, "historyGames": 19, "seasonGames": { "2025": 13, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 18.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13433024646005529, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 31.285714285714285, "btb": { "id": "8480870", "name": "Bo Groulx", "score": 31.285714285714285, "components": { "Goal model": 30.0, "SOG model": 5.714285714285714, "Unit attack": 10.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 15.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9251789771251537, "unitPlayers": [ "Bo Groulx", "Colton Sissons", "Vinni Lettieri" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 123 } }, { "id": "8480876", "name": "Curtis Douglas", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.6744186046511628, "currentTOI": 6.338888888888889, "currentFiveTOI": 6.338888888888889, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 43, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.078, "currentIXG": 0.026, "priorTOI": 6.75, "priorPPTOI": 0.003875968992248062, "deploymentChange": -0.4111111111111114, "ppTOIChange": -0.003875968992248062, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.428571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10656980331727188, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.0519816843245791, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.051237438693988585, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05065374539848385, "goalProbability": 0.049946935609155765, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.07068097893280847, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.48777123262415156, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.1551270815074495, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 6.338888888888889, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0144563171058298, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 753.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.034682080924855, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 6.705426356589147, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.001027255596475962, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1250111796798141, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0836668041931277, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.368932038834951, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 2.7888934731042525, "index": 102.78889347310425, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.800000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.800000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 76.8, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.6000000000000005, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.800000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.7888934731042525, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3833333333333332, "attemptProjection": 0.36454706351025656, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1141.0, "expectedMinutes": 6.338888888888889, "projectedAttempts": 0.6666666666666666, "onNet": 0.506900136210481, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.3739401984217949, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.3739401984217949, "baseline": 0.6744186046511628, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 43, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480876", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020514", "date": "20251215", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020283", "date": "20251115", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.49413156091354205, "adjustedSOG": 0.48777123262415156, "reductionPct": 1.287173051167101, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.3739401984217949, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3739401984217949, "afterRecentDefense": 0.36465707758403504, "afterRecentZones": 0.3725892342241734, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.36333965127281076, "adjusted": 0.36333965127281076, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9751748518160417, "oldChartFactor": 1.0836668041931277, "newChartFactor": 1.0760285691255669, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 19.016666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8818658854948088, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.48777123262415156, "adjustedSOG": 0.48777123262415156, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.48777123262415156, "adjustedSOG": 0.48777123262415156 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 30.0, "goalExpected": 0.058816056810308735, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.055847864858571516, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.057119810403572537, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.28028069669880984 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854074431245344, "modelSOG": 0.48777123262415156, "historyGames": 46, "seasonGames": { "2025": 43, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 30.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10656980331727188, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480893", "name": "Kirill Marchenko", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "R", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 2.8684210526315788, "currentTOI": 17.610714285714288, "currentFiveTOI": 13.651190476190477, "ppShare": 0.7220159151193634, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 35.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.2404761904761905, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.7459999999999996, "currentIXG": 0.33899999999999997, "priorTOI": 18.942324561403506, "priorPPTOI": 2.863157894736842, "deploymentChange": -1.3316102756892185, "ppTOIChange": 0.3773182957393484, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021104", "date": "20260321", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020264", "date": "20251111", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020660", "date": "20250109", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.25 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13722727529873216, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 460.0, "goalExpected": 0.3552304099196858, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3552304099196858, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2989880954973883, "goalProbability": 0.2989880954973883, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.5886283112914636, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.592831603732449, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.22556943423953, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.651190476190477, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7220159151193634, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.9905641341417204, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2857142857142857, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 0.9986202802997413, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2722.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.369444968713251, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.408088235294118, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.105043859649124, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6610077819954611, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0846698211967674, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1499997563758204, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.127029692463899, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.97224015493867, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.344827586206897, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021104", "date": "20260321", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 19.1 }, { "gameId": "2025020264", "date": "20251111", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 21.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020660", "date": "20250109", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 17.25 }, { "gameId": "2024020251", "date": "20241112", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 18.55 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 227, "fitPct": 4.999991879194013, "index": 104.99999187919401, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.343353200310961, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 28.92459186317699, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.811090956206275, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.462295931588494, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.872764965016845, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.5859030837004406, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 66, "fitPct": 4.234323082129961, "index": 104.23432308212996, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.96969696969697, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 11.515151515151514, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.21212121212121, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.060606060606062, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.6060606060606061, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.999991879194013, "zonePPFit": 4.234323082129961, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.768792629784009, "attemptProjection": 2.6147381696762544, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 46.0, "sog": 21.0, "seconds": 11467.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.651190476190477, "projectedAttempts": 3.2857142857142865, "onNet": 0.48023159798678833, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 10.0, "seconds": 2722.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.9905641341417204, "projectedAttempts": 0.8569581280788177, "onNet": 0.5634186743830073, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7559365076863687, "ppAdjusted": 0.6501146063294774, "other": 0.2857142857142857 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.691765399730132, "baseline": 2.8684210526315788, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8480893", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.762427660890711, "adjustedSOG": 2.6414574605014938, "reductionPct": 4.379126451051086, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7559365076863687, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6431237369726117, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6611827412833544, "afterRecentZones": 1.7559365076863687, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6611827412833544, "adjusted": 1.5544575682000907, "playerFactor": 0.9357535023504924, "defenseFactor": 0.9460380452321352, "oldChartFactor": 1.1499997563758204, "newChartFactor": 1.1499997563758204, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.93333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5848653488688398, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7474312027727088, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6501146063294774, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6501146063294774, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6501146063294774, "afterRecentZones": 0.6499765451670605, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6499765451670605, "adjusted": 0.6499765451670605, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.127029692463899, "newChartFactor": 1.1266191833637849, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.433333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1227057125180449, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.6414574605014938, "adjustedSOG": 2.5886283112914636, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.5886283112914636, "adjustedSOG": 2.5886283112914636 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 64.0, "goalHistoryShots": 459.0, "goalExpected": 0.3536784329869594, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3496281991571102, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29789929651512426, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.28494385721908877 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847274167290007, "modelSOG": 2.5886283112914636, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 76, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 64.0, "historyShots": 460.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1391304347826087, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13722727529873216, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8480990", "name": "Declan Chisholm", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.4, "priorSOG": 0.7692307692307693, "currentTOI": 14.755, "currentFiveTOI": 14.12, "ppShare": 0.06169052488070893, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 26, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.30166666666666664, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.40 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.08, "currentIXG": 0.008, "priorTOI": 13.725641025641027, "priorPPTOI": 0.31346153846153846, "deploymentChange": 1.0293589743589742, "ppTOIChange": -0.01179487179487182, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020771", "date": "20260119", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021030", "date": "20250311", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020947", "date": "20250228", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020741", "date": "20250120", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.65 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.050700221787782676, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.031283245195723654, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.031844203645221295, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03079898733662475, "goalProbability": 0.03134251637108484, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.05435290344600885, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.6170238332815742, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.6997167138810199, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.12, "Current_PP_Share": 0.06169052488070893, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.2928586306142543, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9969135802469136, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 181.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2934.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.33593445181428, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.143589743589745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07163370875318258, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0101010101010102, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0541225950113953, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0647702979913085, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.8862981399004455, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020771", "date": "20260119", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021030", "date": "20250311", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 19.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020947", "date": "20250228", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020741", "date": "20250120", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.65 }, { "gameId": "2024020662", "date": "20250109", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.35 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": 1.8040865003798388, "index": 101.80408650037984, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 81.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.8040865003798388, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.42590811919652344, "attemptProjection": 0.7121890269653178, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 20.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 8472.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.12, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.3408841076713487, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 181.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.2928586306142543, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5690485730809206, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5690485730809206, "baseline": 0.7692307692307693, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 26, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8480990", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6491214515408601, "adjustedSOG": 0.6296161564097695, "reductionPct": 3.004876065147688, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5690485730809206, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5380989727986519, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5690485730809206, "afterRecentZones": 0.5673996668946648, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5673996668946648, "adjusted": 0.5365397478624365, "playerFactor": 0.945611672278339, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0541225950113953, "newChartFactor": 1.045960509389429, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 73.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6710115410726409, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3247605265715614, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.6296161564097695, "adjustedSOG": 0.6170238332815742, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6170238332815742, "adjustedSOG": 0.6170238332815742 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 93.0, "goalExpected": 0.029060141287127875, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02884661346017671, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.028641956013146373, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.020743411801412565 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785142805042055, "modelSOG": 0.6170238332815742, "historyGames": 102, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 26, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 93.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.043010752688172046, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.050700221787782676, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481028", "name": "Martin Pospisil", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 0.8636363636363636, "currentTOI": 13.51969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 11.68030303030303, "ppShare": 0.013900589721988205, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 22, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.05, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.822, "currentIXG": 0.16563636363636364, "priorTOI": 10.151515151515152, "priorPPTOI": 0.03712121212121212, "deploymentChange": 3.3681818181818173, "ppTOIChange": 0.012878787878787885, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 6.75 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.083333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.833333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07913330179947206, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 151.0, "goalExpected": 0.0917971274621418, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09726089286009991, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08770979059728108, "goalProbability": 0.09268073786511605, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4970947267834966, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.1600315590869763, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.938772862887534, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.68030303030303, "Current_PP_Share": 0.013900589721988205, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.048959210895815786, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 0.9775426619938402, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 33.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.299039355438488, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.77878787878788, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009856784696225572, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9085298924311536, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9409789753106808, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8549075272189899, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.696534386783982, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 6.75 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.083333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.783333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matvei Gridin", "Martin Pospisil", "Ryan Strome" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": -1.9673674896439763, "index": 98.03263251035602, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 37.69230769230769, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.329670329670328, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.153846153846157, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.494505494505495, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.901098901098901, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.9673674896439763, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4121298147929842, "attemptProjection": 1.5722061289092992, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 7709.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.68030303030303, "projectedAttempts": 2.9090909090909087, "onNet": 0.5165708180846953, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 33.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.048959210895815786, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4012588809420508, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4921679718511416, "baseline": 0.8636363636363636, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 22, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481028", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2407553285652304, "adjustedSOG": 1.1837056725377308, "reductionPct": 4.597977918295138, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4012588809420508, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3072658837343176, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4012588809420508, "afterRecentZones": 1.400090763672253, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.400090763672253, "adjusted": 1.3061761208962182, "playerFactor": 0.9329224610198061, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9409789753106808, "newChartFactor": 0.9393150992123013, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.547669792554703, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.384747837482286, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1837056725377308, "adjustedSOG": 1.1600315590869763, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 95, "beforeSOG": 1.1600315590869763, "adjustedSOG": 1.1600315590869763 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 149.0, "goalExpected": 0.09861878959903485, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09861878959903485, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09391194761530555, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12862458751667485, "modelSOG": 1.1600315590869763, "historyGames": 114, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 22, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 151.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.046357615894039736, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07913330179947206, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 42.18677274531816, "btb": { "id": "8481028", "name": "Martin Pospisil", "score": 42.18677274531816, "components": { "Goal model": 24.285714285714285, "SOG model": 32.857142857142854, "Unit attack": 46.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 54.285714285714285, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 44.857142857142854, "Goalie H2H": 48.288723124177274 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4005205244313776, "unitPlayers": [ "Matvei Gridin", "Martin Pospisil", "Ryan Strome" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 90 } }, { "id": "8481068", "name": "Yegor Sharangovich", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.6363636363636365, "priorSOG": 1.8205128205128205, "currentTOI": 16.35757575757576, "currentFiveTOI": 12.648484848484848, "ppShare": 0.2763268744734625, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.993939393939394, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.588, "currentIXG": 0.23527272727272727, "priorTOI": 16.044017094017097, "priorPPTOI": 1.4985042735042735, "deploymentChange": 0.3135586635586627, "ppTOIChange": -0.5045648795648795, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.566666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1207582940878657, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 288.0, "goalExpected": 0.2069769959843587, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2192962676227772, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18696164708056356, "goalProbability": 0.19691624481003478, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.9954597729471215, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.7139774749861807, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.468615237182559, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.975609756097562, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.648484848484848, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2763268744734625, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9732497681107622, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.0318189686373864, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 656.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.298215505606745, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.319977185227435, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.824145299145298, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3978974054531289, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1248532996298637, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0005981322347588, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1560070097057653, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1255261106477472, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.8823897403816074, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.51063829787234, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.966666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.783333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.616666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Yegor Sharangovich", "Morgan Frost", "Aydar Suniev" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 161, "fitPct": 0.01993774115862834, "index": 100.01993774115863, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.111801242236023, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.136645962732917, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 19.875776397515526, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.77639751552795, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 17.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": 5.200233656858842, "index": 105.20023365685884, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 35.714285714285715, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.565263623029622, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5309649899459572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.382574193772484, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.142857142857146, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.999220132336035, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5973104262934754, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.24012500494106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.01993774115862834, "zonePPFit": 5.200233656858842, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8304559419021575, "attemptProjection": 1.5959389494543466, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 30.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 8348.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.648484848484848, "projectedAttempts": 2.7272727272727275, "onNet": 0.4992710763078973, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 656.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.9732497681107622, "projectedAttempts": 0.26705024124990423, "onNet": 0.5543200932371563, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4385083928331035, "ppAdjusted": 0.1837799619360579, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7131974456782522, "baseline": 1.8205128205128205, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481068", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7561235956120795, "adjustedSOG": 1.748956607128756, "reductionPct": 0.4081141271167543, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4385083928331035, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4385083928331035, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4385083928331035, "afterRecentZones": 1.4313064621352845, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4313064621352845, "adjusted": 1.4313064621352845, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0005981322347588, "newChartFactor": 0.9912077239978713, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 52.18333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.06649632705206, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0120626170240905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1837799619360579, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1837799619360579, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1790369118283375, "afterRecentZones": 0.1837799619360579, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.17903691182833753, "adjusted": 0.17903691182833753, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1.1560070097057653, "newChartFactor": 1.1560070097057653, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.116666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.024199843871975, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.748956607128756, "adjustedSOG": 1.7139774749861807, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 51, "beforeSOG": 1.7139774749861807, "adjustedSOG": 1.7139774749861807 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 287.0, "goalExpected": 0.2203068153555662, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2203068153555662, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1977273893589104, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854218106091891, "modelSOG": 1.7139774749861807, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 78, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 288.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11805555555555555, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1207582940878657, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 61.37567771375911, "btb": { "id": "8481068", "name": "Yegor Sharangovich", "score": 61.37567771375911, "components": { "Goal model": 66.42857142857143, "SOG model": 64.28571428571429, "Unit attack": 70.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 16.666666666666668, "Shot quality": 73.57142857142857, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 65.75, "Goalie H2H": 49.55277280858676 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7252488910170496, "unitPlayers": [ "Yegor Sharangovich", "Morgan Frost", "Aydar Suniev" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 6, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 30 } }, { "id": "8481122", "name": "Simon Benoit", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.7, "priorSOG": 0.821917808219178, "currentTOI": 14.355, "currentFiveTOI": 12.506666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0010496850944716584, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 73, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.005, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.225, "currentIXG": 0.0225, "priorTOI": 17.296118721461184, "priorPPTOI": 0.005479452054794521, "deploymentChange": -2.9411187214611836, "ppTOIChange": -0.0004794520547945205, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020539", "date": "20251218", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020571", "date": "20241228", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020419", "date": "20241206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.016666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.031604125574712795, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.023721783130605873, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.023721783130605873, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.023442633300267957, "goalProbability": 0.023442633300267957, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.750591345251021, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.3582089552238807, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.506666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0010496850944716584, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.005486354093771868, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0025049991305859, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 3.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2858.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.02825469785048, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.19931506849315, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.0014726169570645356, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0710776722696935, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1028133070036104, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.187250996015936, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 0.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020539", "date": "20251218", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.3 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020571", "date": "20241228", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020419", "date": "20241206", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.016666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 89, "fitPct": 2.3692557423231193, "index": 102.36925574232312, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 61.12359550561798, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.247191011235955, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.7977528089887642, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.468164794007492, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.7977528089887642, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 7.5655430711610485, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.3692557423231193, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7719693149025272, "attemptProjection": 0.6882474756822704, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 7504.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.506666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.5999999999999999, "onNet": 0.4069982960150668, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 3.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.005486354093771868, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7301083952923988, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7301083952923988, "baseline": 0.821917808219178, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 73, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481122", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7668321604631105, "adjustedSOG": 0.7659095359704297, "reductionPct": 0.12031635346693159, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7301083952923988, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7301083952923988, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7301083952923988, "afterRecentZones": 0.7285706878045974, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7285706878045974, "adjusted": 0.7285706878045974, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0710776722696935, "newChartFactor": 1.0668106525193712, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.56666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5487066593285634, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0465532454298034, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7659095359704297, "adjustedSOG": 0.750591345251021, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.750591345251021, "adjustedSOG": 0.750591345251021 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.02427875152623895, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.02400934544089186, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02398639344737717, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.02629794275253068 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05794886998563251, "modelSOG": 0.750591345251021, "historyGames": 161, "seasonGames": { "2024": 78, "2025": 73, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 115.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.008695652173913044, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.031604125574712795, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8481186", "name": "Logan O'Connor", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 13.275, "currentFiveTOI": 8.941666666666666, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5569999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.27849999999999997, "priorTOI": 11.444871794871794, "priorPPTOI": 0.001282051282051282, "deploymentChange": 1.8301282051282062, "ppTOIChange": -0.001282051282051282, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.083333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11094538418670444, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 106.0, "goalExpected": 0.13770950337353938, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14254517465852182, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12864822026411138, "goalProbability": 0.1328516197245415, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4203399460430107, "recentlyDressed": true, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.2412368877085949, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.42031686859273, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.941666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.0107821850719034, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 693.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9603031698840081, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9108256366327434, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8746687460700432, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 16.9811320754717, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.283333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Parker Kelly", "Fedor Svechkov", "Logan O'Connor" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": -2.9724787789085525, "index": 97.02752122109145, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.9724787789085525, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7493374921400862, "attemptProjection": 1.1582308989825059, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1073.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.941666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.5, "onNet": 0.5291315164860305, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5099075297225891, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.453784195561296, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.453784195561296, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 13, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481186", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2722705173367777, "adjustedSOG": 1.2412368877085949, "reductionPct": 2.4392320033592374, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.453784195561296, "afterPlayerForm": 1.453784195561296, "afterRecentDefense": 1.402061479514325, "afterRecentZones": 1.4498639012776926, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.402061479514325, "adjusted": 1.402061479514325, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9354553867176352, "oldChartFactor": 0.9108256366327434, "newChartFactor": 0.9067432859683414, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.883333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7016323446514028, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2412368877085949, "adjustedSOG": 1.2412368877085949, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 88, "beforeSOG": 1.2412368877085949, "adjustedSOG": 1.2412368877085949 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 105.0, "goalExpected": 0.22943323566524537, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22943323566524537, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20501595655312976, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854749142461114, "modelSOG": 1.2412368877085949, "historyGames": 95, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 13, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 106.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09433962264150944, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11094538418670444, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 49.16863636363637, "btb": { "id": "8481186", "name": "Logan O'Connor", "score": 49.16863636363637, "components": { "Goal model": 43.57142857142857, "SOG model": 37.857142857142854, "Unit attack": 60.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 71.42857142857143, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 56.2, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4909034769007357, "unitPlayers": [ "Parker Kelly", "Fedor Svechkov", "Logan O'Connor" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 63 } }, { "id": "8481533", "name": "Trevor Zegras", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 2.142857142857143, "priorSOG": 2.0617283950617282, "currentTOI": 18.7, "currentFiveTOI": 14.547619047619047, "ppShare": 0.6357504215851602, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 30.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.1416666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.14 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.683, "currentIXG": 0.33449999999999996, "priorTOI": 18.718930041152262, "priorPPTOI": 2.7808641975308643, "deploymentChange": -0.018930041152263044, "ppTOIChange": 0.3608024691358023, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021033", "date": "20250311", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.65 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13885564281106091, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 295.0, "goalExpected": 0.27880812603851474, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27880812603851474, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24331492254956863, "goalProbability": 0.24331492254956863, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.007899141829514, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.30278232405892, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.913224706328155, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.547619047619047, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6357504215851602, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.322855536818437, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2857142857142857, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9933397555142174, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2639.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4151.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.377699813616928, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 11.453940066592676, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.013991769547326, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6530841568264717, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9915590863952334, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.05617445412301, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0472593768041962, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.4050168247170385, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.696419027258151, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 16.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 18.65 }, { "gameId": "2024021033", "date": "20250311", "team": "ANA", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.65 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Cole Knuble" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 172, "fitPct": 1.8724818041003317, "index": 101.87248180410033, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.693446088794925, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.524312896405918, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.243128964059196, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.68287526427061, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.84355179704017, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.012684989429175, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 64, "fitPct": 12.118516526074245, "index": 112.11851652607425, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.625, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 23.482142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.642857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 37.05357142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.625, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.8724818041003317, "zonePPFit": 12.118516526074245, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.327232785835701, "attemptProjection": 2.292859747897321, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 12220.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.547619047619047, "projectedAttempts": 2.0714285714285716, "onNet": 0.5435656468940733, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 2639.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.322855536818437, "projectedAttempts": 1.4354131534569983, "onNet": 0.5127386223415837, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2682478380154971, "ppAdjusted": 0.756084143136728, "other": 0.2857142857142857 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.310046266866511, "baseline": 2.0617283950617282, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481533", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 6, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.2107191181445978, "adjustedSOG": 2.203093199286278, "reductionPct": 0.3449519568419879, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2682478380154971, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2682478380154971, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2682478380154971, "afterRecentZones": 1.2682478380154971, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2682478380154971, "adjusted": 1.2682478380154971, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.05617445412301, "newChartFactor": 1.05617445412301, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 71.33333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4767966484047694, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1686511240632804, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.756084143136728, "afterPlayerForm": 0.756084143136728, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7433742783728621, "afterRecentZones": 0.756084143136728, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7433742783728622, "adjusted": 0.7433742783728622, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 18.083333333333332, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.53616298811545, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.203093199286278, "adjustedSOG": 2.1590313353005524, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 30, "beforeSOG": 2.1590313353005524, "adjustedSOG": 2.007899141829514 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 41.0, "goalHistoryShots": 292.0, "goalExpected": 0.2810156990288265, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2778974439853325, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24498351763835408, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.23580084792847178 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12847978910369068, "modelSOG": 2.007899141829514, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 57, "2025": 81, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 42.0, "historyShots": 295.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1423728813559322, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13885564281106091, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.91, "btb": { "id": "8481533", "name": "Trevor Zegras", "score": 63.91, "components": { "Goal model": 85.71428571428571, "SOG model": 72.14285714285714, "Unit attack": 20.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 100.0, "Shot quality": 90.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 47.733333333333334, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.190168083364521, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Cole Knuble" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 22 } }, { "id": "8481546", "name": "Cam York", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.2027027027027026, "currentTOI": 21.822222222222223, "currentFiveTOI": 16.45277777777778, "ppShare": 0.201885745978924, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.011111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.33 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.73, "currentIXG": 0.12166666666666666, "priorTOI": 22.535810810810812, "priorPPTOI": 1.6006756756756757, "deploymentChange": -0.7135885885885891, "ppTOIChange": -0.5895645645645646, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.0 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05261497697306163, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.06717580829377637, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06717580829377637, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06496919928399854, "goalProbability": 0.06496919928399854, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.276743090245383, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.0390005065000842, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.89010989010989, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.45277777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.201885745978924, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.055189498983176, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0025049991305859, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 364.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1803.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4731363983979056, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.130856901646265, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.3759009009009, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3759176463667241, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.035705527274229, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9331664538767689, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0663930984527248, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9666851188043253, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.0094043887147337, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.89010989010989, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.3 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 23.166666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 21.95 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.0 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.083333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.483333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cam York", "Nick Seeler" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 93, "fitPct": 1.1901842424743023, "index": 101.1901842424743, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 54.064516129032256, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 42 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.021505376344084, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.741935483870968, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.161290322580648, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.1505376344086025, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8602150537634409, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 28, "fitPct": -2.2277848707743715, "index": 97.77221512922563, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 87.14285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 2.857142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.4285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.4285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.1901842424743023, "zonePPFit": -2.2277848707743715, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.3901320486313118, "attemptProjection": 1.3734760960293109, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 5923.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.45277777777778, "projectedAttempts": 2.333333333333334, "onNet": 0.38846699276553764, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 364.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.055189498983176, "projectedAttempts": 0.17393233499722685, "onNet": 0.4254049445865303, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9233276489395874, "ppAdjusted": 0.12514309005739077, "other": 0.3333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3818040723303113, "baseline": 1.2027027027027026, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481546", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 10, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3101635244792678, "adjustedSOG": 1.3027990716789621, "reductionPct": 0.5621018035311787, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9233276489395874, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9233276489395874, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9233276489395874, "afterRecentZones": 0.9206985071472227, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9206985071472226, "adjusted": 0.9206985071472226, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.035705527274229, "newChartFactor": 1.0295771679884291, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 85.1, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0771501314979575, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0465532454298034, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.12514309005739077, "afterPlayerForm": 0.11831710332698764, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12303941976460686, "afterRecentZones": 0.12425015830545627, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1221614983020872, "adjusted": 0.11549814384924607, "playerFactor": 0.9454545454545454, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 0.9331664538767689, "newChartFactor": 0.9232548937528748, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.3333333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3027990716789621, "adjustedSOG": 1.276743090245383, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 81, "beforeSOG": 1.276743090245383, "adjustedSOG": 1.276743090245383 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 160.0, "goalExpected": 0.06246050920977758, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06176742409554482, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06054983828980089, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06513446151997088 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05785123966942149, "modelSOG": 1.276743090245383, "historyGames": 146, "seasonGames": { "2024": 66, "2025": 74, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 162.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04938271604938271, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05261497697306163, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 34.81167701863354, "btb": { "id": "8481546", "name": "Cam York", "score": 34.81167701863354, "components": { "Goal model": 17.857142857142858, "SOG model": 42.857142857142854, "Unit attack": 52.17391304347826, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 45.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 29.200000000000003, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4657315104414135, "unitPlayers": [ "Cam York", "Nick Seeler" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 110 } }, { "id": "8481554", "name": "Kaapo Kakko", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 1.2, "currentTOI": 14.143055555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 11.505555555555555, "ppShare": 0.48991696322657174, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 65, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2944444444444447, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.303, "currentIXG": 0.10858333333333332, "priorTOI": 14.257435897435897, "priorPPTOI": 1.3979487179487178, "deploymentChange": -0.11438034188034152, "ppTOIChange": 0.896495726495727, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020079", "date": "20241019", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.733333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.928571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13721062457447436, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 205.0, "goalExpected": 0.13797985799953985, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13600433704903653, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12888376240724803, "goalProbability": 0.12716115306436987, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.17226093428781564, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.005606223479057, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.9111540318686626, "Current_PP_SOG60": 2.179176755447942, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.505555555555555, "Current_PP_Share": 0.48991696322657174, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5741053776196123, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 0.9820855078281815, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1652.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.1253889804136925, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 4.622157006603081, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.606923076923078, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.33581238061400537, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9819596160211851, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0478807755049855, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9888615131323993, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0289766039508572, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9401950271612856, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.6601307189542482, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 2.750190985485103, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020079", "date": "20241019", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.733333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kaapo Kakko", "Berkly Catton", "Shane Wright" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": 1.5960258501661855, "index": 101.59602585016619, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.7735849056603774, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.037735849056604, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.775036284470254, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.13352685050799, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.169811320754718, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 16.11030478955007, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13, "fitPct": -0.37128289558668826, "index": 99.62871710441331, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 63.84615384615384, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.5960258501661855, "zonePPFit": -0.37128289558668826, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8596317656299861, "attemptProjection": 0.9124317531874239, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8284.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.505555555555555, "projectedAttempts": 1.4999999999999998, "onNet": 0.49914244271517333, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1652.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.5741053776196123, "projectedAttempts": 0.18698102016607357, "onNet": 0.5457493257994093, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7897051902391123, "ppAdjusted": 0.09632656916959267, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.886031759408705, "baseline": 1.2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 65, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481554", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0116190556452231, "adjustedSOG": 1.005606223479057, "reductionPct": 0.5943771158334887, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7897051902391123, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7897051902391123, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7897051902391123, "afterRecentZones": 0.7897051902391123, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7897051902391123, "adjusted": 0.7897051902391123, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0478807755049855, "newChartFactor": 1.0478807755049855, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.7172470978441128, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3517003152458247, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.09632656916959267, "afterPlayerForm": 0.08669391225263341, "afterRecentDefense": 0.09632656916959267, "afterRecentZones": 0.09589464691775856, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.09589464691775856, "adjusted": 0.08630518222598271, "playerFactor": 0.9, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9888615131323993, "newChartFactor": 0.979143319018116, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.933333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.005606223479057, "adjustedSOG": 1.005606223479057, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 110, "beforeSOG": 1.005606223479057, "adjustedSOG": 1.005606223479057 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 29.0, "goalHistoryShots": 203.0, "goalExpected": 0.10278876428819005, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09760146001389627, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09768244495698995, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4692756565370909 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284924049521468, "modelSOG": 1.005606223479057, "historyGames": 156, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 65, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 29.0, "historyShots": 205.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14146341463414633, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13721062457447436, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 44.911300006423126, "btb": { "id": "8481554", "name": "Kaapo Kakko", "score": 44.911300006423126, "components": { "Goal model": 44.285714285714285, "SOG model": 22.142857142857142, "Unit attack": 76.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 25.0, "Shot quality": 30.0, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 45.292307692307695, "Goalie H2H": 50.43319653442772 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8600030915226355, "unitPlayers": [ "Kaapo Kakko", "Berkly Catton", "Shane Wright" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 77 } }, { "id": "8481559", "name": "Jack Hughes", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 3.75, "priorSOG": 3.737704918032787, "currentTOI": 20.334722222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 15.984722222222222, "ppShare": 0.6791171477079796, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 45.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.3333333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 3.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 7.183, "currentIXG": 0.5985833333333334, "priorTOI": 21.315573770491802, "priorPPTOI": 2.7972677595628412, "deploymentChange": -0.9808515482695803, "ppTOIChange": 0.5360655737704922, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 14.0, "toi": 24.6 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 3.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.083333333333334, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11770316669120007, "goalHistoryGoals": 58.0, "goalHistoryShots": 502.0, "goalExpected": 0.4259629389725615, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.43360113342120427, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.3468594522681089, "goalProbability": 0.35182926242343737, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.4969810155328491, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 3.61895903863059, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.009557737422886, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.5, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.984722222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6791171477079796, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.2239200150914917, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 1.0177330048540136, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2400.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 9.071939905621008, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 14.76850947450674, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.0224043715847, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.721224878528114, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0968851379369222, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0360471085203675, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0249399814359839, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1364246755385128, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0379063398739239, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.719193770041228, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.103545301069218, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 3.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 22.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 14.0, "toi": 24.6 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 53, "priorAttempts": 221, "fitPct": 1.2015702840122486, "index": 101.20157028401225, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 13.354392555280459, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.37052847263724, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 50 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.828993426107743, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 64 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.646546572184754, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.642277810979255, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.157261162810553, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": 0.8313327145327918, "index": 100.83133271453279, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.352941176470589, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.490196078431373, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.19607843137255, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.19607843137255, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.764705882352942, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.2015702840122486, "zonePPFit": 0.8313327145327918, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 4.1160380304452655, "attemptProjection": 4.173938113159002, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 75.0, "sog": 32.0, "seconds": 11509.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.984722222222222, "projectedAttempts": 6.25, "onNet": 0.4588704566635601, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2400.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.2239200150914917, "projectedAttempts": 1.4507640067911711, "onNet": 0.4857323297417126, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 3.0131874872251108, "ppAdjusted": 0.6318005845770231, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 4.144988071802134, "baseline": 3.737704918032787, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481559", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 3.982074810294395, "adjustedSOG": 3.970769188754213, "reductionPct": 0.28391283636748366, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 3.0131874872251108, "afterPlayerForm": 2.9947931542484034, "afterRecentDefense": 3.0131874872251108, "afterRecentZones": 3.0131874872251108, "afterDefenseAndZones": 3.0131874872251108, "adjusted": 2.9947931542484034, "playerFactor": 0.9938953904943874, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0360471085203675, "newChartFactor": 1.0360471085203675, "playerRecentAttempts": 30.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 79.56666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9643066610808546, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1431555481815203, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6318005845770231, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6318005845770231, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6318005845770231, "afterRecentZones": 0.6313522149867601, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6313522149867601, "adjusted": 0.6313522149867601, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0249399814359839, "newChartFactor": 1.0233703990795997, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.8629407850964737, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 3.970769188754213, "adjustedSOG": 3.8913538049791287, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 1, "beforeSOG": 3.8913538049791287, "adjustedSOG": 3.61895903863059 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 57.0, "goalHistoryShots": 496.0, "goalExpected": 0.3714774837321788, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3687479450462209, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.31028546454850664, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18851741642491593 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12857306348102435, "modelSOG": 3.61895903863059, "historyGames": 135, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 61, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 58.0, "historyShots": 502.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11553784860557768, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11770316669120007, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 72.06495670995672, "btb": { "id": "8481559", "name": "Jack Hughes", "score": 72.06495670995672, "components": { "Goal model": 96.42857142857143, "SOG model": 100.0, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 83.33333333333333, "Shot quality": 100.0, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 56.53333333333333, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.823936243337629, "unitPlayers": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 3 } }, { "id": "8481617", "name": "Vasily Podkolzin", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": 1.6951219512195121, "currentTOI": 19.133333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 15.5625, "ppShare": 0.568445475638051, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 27.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.722222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 5.2139999999999995, "currentIXG": 0.43449999999999994, "priorTOI": 15.377235772357725, "priorPPTOI": 0.43902439024390244, "deploymentChange": 3.7560975609756078, "ppTOIChange": 2.2831978319783195, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 12.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12592746308066877, "goalHistoryGoals": 35.0, "goalHistoryShots": 280.0, "goalExpected": 0.25831546644066894, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2540609905876052, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2276484573210833, "goalProbability": 0.22435550640963137, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.32929509114519306, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.05130366419907, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.42570281124498, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.183673469387756, "Current_5v5_Min": 15.5625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.568445475638051, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8136615575710704, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9988205850658111, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1960.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.217436105829935, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 23.333333333333332, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.004674796747969, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10779626505903843, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0473353194306523, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1539256617108187, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9864013084597129, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9876338448069859, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.5351567227399245, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.076923076923077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.233333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 12.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.916666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Vasily Podkolzin", "Connor McDavid", "Leon Draisaitl" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 162, "fitPct": 5.130855390360622, "index": 105.13085539036062, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.226479352916133, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.521924223073647, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 41.711366538952745, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.051511281396339, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.747977862920393, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": -0.45328971800957163, "index": 99.54671028199043, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 56.00000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.130855390360622, "zonePPFit": -0.45328971800957163, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.50867017753071, "attemptProjection": 2.2934791822169083, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 36.0, "sog": 20.0, "seconds": 11205.0, "expectedMinutes": 15.5625, "projectedAttempts": 3.0, "onNet": 0.5225777454026952, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 9.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1960.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.8136615575710704, "projectedAttempts": 0.7751924699430501, "onNet": 0.5487960159588013, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.799511926884374, "ppAdjusted": 0.4348960863227686, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.401074679873809, "baseline": 1.6951219512195121, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481617", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1186935884120905, "adjustedSOG": 2.05130366419907, "reductionPct": 3.180730077326932, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.799511926884374, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7262338166061557, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7995119268843738, "afterRecentZones": 1.793065943393775, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.793065943393775, "adjusted": 1.7200503206723319, "playerFactor": 0.9592788971367975, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1539256617108187, "newChartFactor": 1.1461640765649754, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 81.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7642725598526703, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0369741716468963, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.4348960863227686, "afterPlayerForm": 0.40204115217977676, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4348960863227686, "afterRecentZones": 0.4348960863227686, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4348960863227686, "adjusted": 0.40204115217977676, "playerFactor": 0.9244533690316823, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9864013084597129, "newChartFactor": 0.9864013084597129, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 9.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.36662925551814435, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.05130366419907, "adjustedSOG": 2.05130366419907, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 39, "beforeSOG": 2.05130366419907, "adjustedSOG": 2.05130366419907 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 279.0, "goalExpected": 0.22929800128939082, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.22935080127116725, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20490844011240436, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0041979711598916225 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852435970654133, "modelSOG": 2.05130366419907, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 35.0, "historyShots": 280.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12592746308066877, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 63.34751333937381, "btb": { "id": "8481617", "name": "Vasily Podkolzin", "score": 63.34751333937381, "components": { "Goal model": 81.42857142857143, "SOG model": 75.0, "Unit attack": 93.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 66.66666666666667, "Shot quality": 94.28571428571429, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 32.705882352941174, "Goalie H2H": 50.227998176014594 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.3642313805252755, "unitPlayers": [ "Vasily Podkolzin", "Connor McDavid", "Leon Draisaitl" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 25 } }, { "id": "8481656", "name": "Aliaksei Protas", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.3, "priorSOG": 2.0921052631578947, "currentTOI": 15.948333333333332, "currentFiveTOI": 12.773333333333333, "ppShare": 0.003475842891901286, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 76, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.016666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.30 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.811, "currentIXG": 0.18109999999999998, "priorTOI": 18.236184210526318, "priorPPTOI": 0.45592105263157895, "deploymentChange": -2.2878508771929855, "ppTOIChange": -0.4392543859649123, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.35 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.16346701624568233, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 315.0, "goalExpected": 0.2693437923268438, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2693437923268438, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.23611940578662236, "goalProbability": 0.23611940578662236, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.6476950427848651, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.227557411273486, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.773333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.003475842891901286, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.018562242415214262, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0002790509671295, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 10.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.660890761978884, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.926406926406926, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.933991228070175, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10418922863374586, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0638861304203906, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0749843643105532, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.143660955608778, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.5702479338842976, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 18.05 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.45 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 18.35 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.983333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Aliaksei Protas", "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "Tom Wilson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 223, "fitPct": 2.499478810351775, "index": 102.49947881035177, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.663677130044843, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.89387144992526, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 31 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.29895366218236, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 76 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.5067264573991, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.79222720478326, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.844544095665172, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 14 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": -8.696979793403585, "index": 91.30302020659641, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.499478810351775, "zonePPFit": -8.696979793403585, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.4292948600479, "attemptProjection": 1.3824306318530473, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 7664.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.773333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.9000000000000001, "onNet": 0.49190849427002586, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 10.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.018562242415214262, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0058627459504736, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4058627459504738, "baseline": 2.0921052631578947, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 76, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481656", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6803597528334422, "adjustedSOG": 1.6476950427848651, "reductionPct": 1.9439117125661598, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0058627459504736, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0058627459504736, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9533151033273675, "afterRecentZones": 1.0038648313751706, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9514215625361786, "adjusted": 0.9514215625361786, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9477586352266659, "oldChartFactor": 1.0749843643105532, "newChartFactor": 1.0708111637767836, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.86666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2064858057406727, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7529604082771819, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6476950427848651, "adjustedSOG": 1.6476950427848651, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 54, "beforeSOG": 1.6476950427848651, "adjustedSOG": 1.6476950427848651 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 55.0, "goalHistoryShots": 311.0, "goalExpected": 0.16981120960597063, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17583083063980676, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15617589255464442, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5064243640018229 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12838811741958164, "modelSOG": 1.6476950427848651, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 76, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 55.0, "historyShots": 315.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1746031746031746, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.16346701624568233, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.12008403361345, "btb": { "id": "8481656", "name": "Aliaksei Protas", "score": 57.12008403361345, "components": { "Goal model": 82.85714285714286, "SOG model": 62.142857142857146, "Unit attack": 80.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 59.285714285714285, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 56.75294117647059, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.1438031714204273, "unitPlayers": [ "Aliaksei Protas", "Pierre-Luc Dubois", "Tom Wilson" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 45 } }, { "id": "8481721", "name": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.1666666666666665, "priorSOG": 2.257575757575758, "currentTOI": 15.177777777777777, "currentFiveTOI": 13.46111111111111, "ppShare": 0.245048104131296, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2027777777777777, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.21, "currentIXG": 0.2675, "priorTOI": 15.174242424242424, "priorPPTOI": 1.0214646464646466, "deploymentChange": 0.0035353535353532806, "ppTOIChange": 0.1813131313131311, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 16.15 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.166666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11583503575076608, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 175.0, "goalExpected": 0.23794564141230296, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24221238603026907, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21175446215658886, "goalProbability": 0.21511053970842373, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.33560775518348684, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.054176785720285, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.171687990094924, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.471131639722863, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.46111111111111, "Current_PP_Share": 0.245048104131296, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1632978054455134, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9708404802744426, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 866.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.752621517789201, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.679851668726823, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.606313131313131, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2633661768876786, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9014173512683941, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.03956662278792, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0172610278888485, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9370833915805165, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0301302410637254, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.947804473902236, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.424083769633508, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 10.0, "toi": 16.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 38, "priorAttempts": 190, "fitPct": 1.3188874262639985, "index": 101.318887426264, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.05263157894737, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 59 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.789473684210527, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 24.842105263157894, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.105263157894736, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.157894736842104, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.052631578947368, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": 0.5753675962949529, "index": 100.57536759629495, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 38.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.3188874262639985, "zonePPFit": 0.5753675962949529, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0503988639046744, "attemptProjection": 2.2485095481024624, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 44.0, "sog": 22.0, "seconds": 9692.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.46111111111111, "projectedAttempts": 3.6666666666666665, "onNet": 0.49937963941097646, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 866.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1632978054455134, "projectedAttempts": 0.48358800226372384, "onNet": 0.5424815168137372, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.815373788438205, "ppAdjusted": 0.25074708423203, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1494542060035684, "baseline": 2.257575757575758, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8481721", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.192702826632444, "adjustedSOG": 2.096098760939066, "reductionPct": 4.405707171990225, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.815373788438205, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7827045073529835, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6851088449601654, "afterRecentZones": 1.8149165548485664, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6846844208712972, "adjusted": 1.6543670122825749, "playerFactor": 0.9820041022442395, "defenseFactor": 0.9282434591114656, "oldChartFactor": 1.03956662278792, "newChartFactor": 1.039013271691556, "playerRecentAttempts": 16.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.31666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8857410496013159, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6600723181175374, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.25074708423203, "afterPlayerForm": 0.25074708423203, "afterRecentDefense": 0.25074708423203, "afterRecentZones": 0.25074708423202996, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.25074708423202996, "adjusted": 0.25074708423202996, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0172610278888485, "newChartFactor": 1.0172610278888485, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5860805860805862, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.096098760939066, "adjustedSOG": 2.054176785720285, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 38, "beforeSOG": 2.054176785720285, "adjustedSOG": 2.054176785720285 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 19.0, "goalHistoryShots": 174.0, "goalExpected": 0.2394326470339159, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23767334613041466, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21292571665573928, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.13859192648497665 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854634831460673, "modelSOG": 2.054176785720285, "historyGames": 78, "seasonGames": { "2025": 66, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 19.0, "historyShots": 175.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10857142857142857, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11583503575076608, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 60.031550116550115, "btb": { "id": "8481721", "name": "Arseny Gritsyuk", "score": 60.031550116550115, "components": { "Goal model": 75.71428571428571, "SOG model": 75.71428571428571, "Unit attack": 100.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 33.333333333333336, "Shot quality": 80.71428571428571, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 58.215384615384615, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.823936243337629, "unitPlayers": [ "Arseny Gritsyuk", "Jack Hughes", "Jesper Bratt" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 35 } }, { "id": "8481848", "name": "Jacob Gaucher", "position": "C", "priorGP": 4, "priorSOG": 1, "priorTOI": 8.808333333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0.025, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.505632040050062, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.877777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9734807759894489, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1001.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9090689562650927, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.065775412083581, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.96886334147582, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "inputs": null, "team": "PHI", "isHome": false, "opponent": "WSH", "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "currentGP": 3, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "currentTOI": 9.183333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 8.877777777777778, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.11333333333333333, "currentIXGTotal": 0.33999999999999997, "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 0.7280869021181058, "deploymentChange": 0.375, "ppTOIChange": -0.025, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.11791362286329304, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 9.0, "goalExpected": 0.08585136438805768, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08585136438805768, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08226937146327867, "goalProbability": 0.08226937146327867, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.866666666666666 } ], "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 7.866666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": false, "boardEligible": false, "projected": false, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "line": null, "lineMates": [], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": 2.1925137361193663, "index": 102.19251373611937, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 16.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 68.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.1925137361193663, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6459088943172133, "attemptProjection": 0.5455735926349538, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1598.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.877777777777778, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.5162039072253776, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5957412434760836, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5957412434760836, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 4, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481848", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7574447460856502, "adjustedSOG": 0.742945818487863, "reductionPct": 1.9141894735840714, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5957412434760836, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5957412434760836, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5715763641464382, "afterRecentZones": 0.5957412434760836, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5715763641464383, "adjusted": 0.5715763641464383, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9594372899404346, "oldChartFactor": 1.065775412083581, "newChartFactor": 1.065775412083581, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.633333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8085007776538419, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.742945818487863, "adjustedSOG": 0.7280869021181058, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7280869021181058, "adjustedSOG": 0.7280869021181058 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 9.0, "goalExpected": 0.08642936229090269, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08547030984009306, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08279966457303344, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08800651764511724 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852584892098942, "modelSOG": 0.7280869021181058, "historyGames": 11, "seasonGames": { "2024": 4, "2025": 4, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 9.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11791362286329304, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482074", "name": "Connor Zary", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 13.625, "currentFiveTOI": 13.066666666666666, "ppShare": 0.1952054794520548, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.475, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.378, "currentIXG": 0.189, "priorTOI": 14.368918918918919, "priorPPTOI": 1.6051801801801802, "deploymentChange": -0.7439189189189186, "ppTOIChange": -1.1301801801801803, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 6, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.833333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11683610249458154, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 224.0, "goalExpected": 0.15805662131229614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16746415205230153, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14619856275799326, "goalProbability": 0.15419306281176487, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.7994500053771614, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.352806349558145, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.591836734693878, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.066666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1952054794520548, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6875324304690743, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 0.9775426619938402, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 57.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 292.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.770281592656005, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.092184649922828, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.365315315315314, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.42622302803640166, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9085298924311536, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0406254340405114, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9454393136499484, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.591836734693878, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.916666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.5 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 124, "fitPct": 1.3541811346837136, "index": 101.35418113468371, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.483870967741936, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.806451612903226, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 62.096774193548384, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 53 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.838709677419355, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5806451612903225, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 19.193548387096772, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.3541811346837136, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9454393136499486, "attemptProjection": 1.6559428277042862, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1568.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.066666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 3.5, "onNet": 0.47997907163061426, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 57.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6875324304690743, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3006910706771175, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3006910706771175, "baseline": 1.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482074", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3804146424062704, "adjustedSOG": 1.3804146424062704, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3006910706771175, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3006910706771175, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3006910706771175, "afterRecentZones": 1.3006910706771175, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3006910706771175, "adjusted": 1.3006910706771175, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0406254340405114, "newChartFactor": 1.0406254340405114, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.133333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.384747837482286, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3804146424062704, "adjustedSOG": 1.352806349558145, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.352806349558145, "adjustedSOG": 1.352806349558145 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 224.0, "goalExpected": 0.16794897830996908, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16794897830996908, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15460303283368484, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854897208244417, "modelSOG": 1.352806349558145, "historyGames": 130, "seasonGames": { "2024": 54, "2025": 74, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 224.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11160714285714286, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11683610249458154, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482088", "name": "Justin Sourdif", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.3846153846153846, "currentTOI": 13.65625, "currentFiveTOI": 11.845833333333333, "ppShare": 0.0068463842533162175, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 8.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.03333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.993, "currentIXG": 0.124125, "priorTOI": 14.73888888888889, "priorPPTOI": 0.9743589743589743, "deploymentChange": -1.0826388888888907, "ppTOIChange": -0.941025641025641, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13692642640841832, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 118.0, "goalExpected": 0.17054409497476372, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.17054409497476372, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15679409233436856, "goalProbability": 0.15679409233436856, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.2455162925677477, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.431938093563137, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.845833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0068463842533162175, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03656213704994193, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 0.9970876670412914, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 16.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2337.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.073050633321455, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.473684210526315, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.191880341880342, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.22266510696285788, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.049749575172167, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0893023163859705, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.14349464386023, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.708281829419036, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 19.266666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Boone Jenner", "Justin Sourdif", "Ryan Leonard" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 143, "fitPct": 2.97674387953235, "index": 102.97674387953235, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.993006993006993, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 25 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.433566433566437, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.545454545454543, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.916083916083917, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.433566433566435, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6783216783216788, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.97674387953235, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1255578133777013, "attemptProjection": 1.2957684169883628, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 5686.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.845833333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.375, "onNet": 0.468968218593406, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 16.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03656213704994193, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.085663115183032, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.125 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.210663115183032, "baseline": 1.3846153846153846, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482088", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.280244022955973, "adjustedSOG": 1.2455162925677477, "reductionPct": 2.7125868010726584, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.085663115183032, "afterPlayerForm": 1.085663115183032, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0277835645359898, "afterRecentZones": 1.085663115183032, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0277835645359898, "adjusted": 1.0277835645359898, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9466873748977975, "oldChartFactor": 1.0893023163859705, "newChartFactor": 1.0893023163859705, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 60.38333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0738120487528509, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7478946195976414, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.26666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2455162925677477, "adjustedSOG": 1.2455162925677477, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 86, "beforeSOG": 1.2455162925677477, "adjustedSOG": 1.2455162925677477 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.10883329890802608, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1126913199232977, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10312008410153428, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3453515412589078 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12849960957035192, "modelSOG": 1.2455162925677477, "historyGames": 87, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 78, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 118.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1440677966101695, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13692642640841832, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 48.39476190476191, "btb": { "id": "8482088", "name": "Justin Sourdif", "score": 48.39476190476191, "components": { "Goal model": 56.42857142857143, "SOG model": 39.285714285714285, "Unit attack": 83.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 40.714285714285715, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.6, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.205910260865383, "unitPlayers": [ "Boone Jenner", "Justin Sourdif", "Ryan Leonard" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 67 } }, { "id": "8482110", "name": "Dawson Mercer", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.2, "priorSOG": 1.9268292682926829, "currentTOI": 15.1, "currentFiveTOI": 12.473333333333333, "ppShare": 0.130879345603272, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.64, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.18, "currentIXG": 0.21800000000000003, "priorTOI": 18.227032520325203, "priorPPTOI": 1.5235772357723578, "deploymentChange": -3.127032520325203, "ppTOIChange": -0.8835772357723578, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.2 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12229691205256238, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 324.0, "goalExpected": 0.25055991258062343, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25505285118683635, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.22163515522977761, "goalProbability": 0.22512445621328747, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.34893009835098576, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.0487836395487604, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.696419027258151, "Current_PP_SOG60": 18.75, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.473333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.130879345603272, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.6213133378777551, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 1.0008793601607973, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 384.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2934.0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0266320505841462, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0586109430209456, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.066686794728402, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0868039232044102, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0801812856956565 }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.5 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 17.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.2 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": 1.9536981006981904, "index": 101.95369810069819, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.887356321839082, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.167816091954023, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.291954022988506, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 70 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.73793103448276, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.675862068965515, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.239080459770115, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": 2.222893157613399, "index": 102.2228931576134, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.851063829787234, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 54.46808510638298, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.87234042553192, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5531914893617023, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.25531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.9536981006981904, "zonePPFit": 2.222893157613399, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.3486147271672606, "attemptProjection": 2.0509314169756947, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 7484.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.473333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.7, "onNet": 0.5337952390484634, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 384.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.6213133378777551, "projectedAttempts": 0.2912406271301977, "onNet": 0.5187806884175369, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6222212668347247, "ppAdjusted": 0.177551805236753, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.1997730720714777, "baseline": 1.9268292682926829, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482110", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": 2.09059555055996, "adjustedSOG": 2.09059555055996, "reductionPct": 0, "reason": "player log snapshot mismatch", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.09059555055996, "adjustedSOG": 2.0487836395487604, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 2.0487836395487604, "adjustedSOG": 2.0487836395487604 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 39.0, "goalHistoryShots": 323.0, "goalExpected": 0.19152370672875368, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19550618191857425, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17429994977266708, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.32817908015791153 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853890710286453, "modelSOG": 2.0487836395487604, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 39.0, "historyShots": 324.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.12037037037037036, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12229691205256238, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482142", "name": "Jamie Drysdale", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.4285714285714286, "priorSOG": 1.294871794871795, "currentTOI": 22.785714285714285, "currentFiveTOI": 17.642857142857142, "ppShare": 0.5796193688267888, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.8642857142857143, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.43 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.496, "currentIXG": 0.10685714285714286, "priorTOI": 21.553846153846155, "priorPPTOI": 2.2121794871794873, "deploymentChange": 1.2318681318681293, "ppTOIChange": 0.652106227106227, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.516666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07665407704334733, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 184.0, "goalExpected": 0.1015563777252932, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1015563777252932, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0965697554357089, "goalProbability": 0.0965697554357089, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.3248659646356946, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.672064777327935, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.473815461346634, "Current_5v5_Min": 17.642857142857142, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5796193688267888, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.0294772344013494, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0025049991305859, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2406.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4151.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.1819133347289092, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.259055346276441, "Prior_5v5_Min": 18.373076923076923, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5195289206917113, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1042206154133294, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.977191170788439, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.136938263277428, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0122911717451275, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.761912880402353, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.735849056603774, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 21.983333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 22.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 22.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 22.516666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 22.383333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.916666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Travis Sanheim", "Jamie Drysdale" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": 3.4740205137776456, "index": 103.47402051377765, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.873949579831944, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 74 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.361344537815126, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.352941176470589, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.025210084033613, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.38655462184874, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 37, "fitPct": -0.7602943070520354, "index": 99.23970569294796, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 80.67567567567568, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.1621621621621623, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.662162162162161, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.4740205137776456, "zonePPFit": -0.7602943070520354, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.5715022225714854, "attemptProjection": 1.2340227053554214, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 14820.0, "expectedMinutes": 17.642857142857142, "projectedAttempts": 1.3571428571428572, "onNet": 0.44727373242020885, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 2406.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.0294772344013494, "projectedAttempts": 0.9065767284991569, "onNet": 0.4467040673211781, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7674296893259874, "ppAdjusted": 0.49247563178032316, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4027624639634535, "baseline": 1.294871794871795, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482142", "goals": 1, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.2, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 9, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.35960619632679, "adjustedSOG": 1.3519040455466271, "reductionPct": 0.5664986524018145, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7674296893259874, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7674296893259874, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7674296893259873, "afterRecentZones": 0.7659509223863648, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7659509223863648, "adjusted": 0.7659509223863648, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1042206154133294, "newChartFactor": 1.100564801788886, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 87.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0441767068273091, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0465532454298034, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.49247563178032316, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4920497487654188, "afterRecentDefense": 0.48419705758161075, "afterRecentZones": 0.4897669423862787, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.48153390157984566, "adjusted": 0.48111748075300775, "playerFactor": 0.9991352201257861, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 0.977191170788439, "newChartFactor": 0.9673024087265989, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.8, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9945436507936508, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.3519040455466271, "adjustedSOG": 1.3248659646356946, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 79, "beforeSOG": 1.3248659646356946, "adjustedSOG": 1.3248659646356946 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 182.0, "goalExpected": 0.09243316565710859, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09140749276412609, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08828985752343987, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09355961051563666 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05769757880310644, "modelSOG": 1.3248659646356946, "historyGames": 162, "seasonGames": { "2024": 70, "2025": 78, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 184.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08695652173913043, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07665407704334733, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 49.74302277432712, "btb": { "id": "8482142", "name": "Jamie Drysdale", "score": 49.74302277432712, "components": { "Goal model": 30.714285714285715, "SOG model": 44.285714285714285, "Unit attack": 34.78260869565217, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 100.0, "Shot quality": 27.142857142857142, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 67.95555555555556, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3130773820697463, "unitPlayers": [ "Travis Sanheim", "Jamie Drysdale" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 62 } }, { "id": "8482146", "name": "Luke Evangelista", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "R", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 2.7777777777777777, "priorSOG": 2.1728395061728394, "currentTOI": 17.264814814814812, "currentFiveTOI": 13.131481481481481, "ppShare": 0.6647707074297903, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.4629629629629632, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.78 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.82, "currentIXG": 0.3133333333333333, "priorTOI": 16.622427983539097, "priorPPTOI": 2.093621399176955, "deploymentChange": 0.642386831275715, "ppTOIChange": 1.3693415637860085, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 9, "h2hSOG": 3.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.75, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08705158672421875, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 335.0, "goalExpected": 0.1924906622476528, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1959423266373811, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17509797910157776, "goalProbability": 0.17794035574500394, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2842376643426181, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.211225199805573, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.615286983500211, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.32620320855615, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.131481481481481, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6647707074297903, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.1558142749930873, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 1.0008793601607973, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1870.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2813.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.075722645859195, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.906633906633907, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.923456790123456, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5184839674205518, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0266320505841462, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0447892946156883, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0590518704739018, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0726141759596677, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0724497731859184, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.227272727272727, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.076923076923077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 3.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 6.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.9 }, { "gameId": "2025020752", "date": "20260116", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020506", "date": "20251213", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020475", "date": "20251209", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 7.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 8.0, "toi": 19.833333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020898", "date": "20250222", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 13.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020484", "date": "20241214", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 13.95 }, { "gameId": "2024020243", "date": "20241111", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 11.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020182", "date": "20241102", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.483333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 196, "fitPct": 1.4929764871896083, "index": 101.49297648718961, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 14.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.938775510204081, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.61224489795918, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 52 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.061224489795918, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 56 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.2448979591836737, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 38, "fitPct": 1.9683956824633952, "index": 101.9683956824634, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 7.36842105263158, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.210526315789473, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 58.68421052631578, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.157894736842106, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.526315789473683, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.4929764871896083, "zonePPFit": 1.9683956824633952, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.8761298770263894, "attemptProjection": 2.37744152954891, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 7091.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.131481481481481, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5648201888272067, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 1870.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.1558142749930873, "projectedAttempts": 1.8226093138997512, "onNet": 0.5072849483254332, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.582204993247279, "ppAdjusted": 0.9334695989292597, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.62678570328765, "baseline": 2.1728395061728394, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482146", "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 8, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020343", "date": "20251122", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 7, "attempts": 8 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.4452072244417256, "adjustedSOG": 2.4261852093543705, "reductionPct": 0.7779305940705306, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.582204993247279, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5505016347683542, "afterRecentDefense": 1.582204993247279, "afterRecentZones": 1.582204993247279, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.582204993247279, "adjusted": 1.5505016347683542, "playerFactor": 0.9799625468164794, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0447892946156883, "newChartFactor": 1.0447892946156883, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.871173030615755, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3866973823593225, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.9334695989292597, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9334695989292597, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9334695989292596, "afterRecentZones": 0.9334695989292596, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9334695989292596, "adjusted": 0.9334695989292596, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0590518704739018, "newChartFactor": 1.0590518704739018, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 13.066666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3251133786848073, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.4261852093543705, "adjustedSOG": 2.377661505167283, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 19, "beforeSOG": 2.377661505167283, "adjustedSOG": 2.211225199805573 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 334.0, "goalExpected": 0.2009162010822959, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19943991095030714, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18201902539772313, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.12084690469429116 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12867440225035162, "modelSOG": 2.211225199805573, "historyGames": 158, "seasonGames": { "2024": 68, "2025": 81, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 335.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07462686567164178, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08705158672421875, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 62.4697570829823, "btb": { "id": "8482146", "name": "Luke Evangelista", "score": 62.4697570829823, "components": { "Goal model": 63.57142857142857, "SOG model": 87.14285714285714, "Unit attack": 86.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 83.33333333333333, "Shot quality": 85.0, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 63.45263157894737, "Goalie H2H": 44.145246838025294 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.222591776725312, "unitPlayers": [ "Timo Meier", "Nico Hischier", "Luke Evangelista" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 9, "goalieH2HShots": 7, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 29 } }, { "id": "8482159", "name": "Tyson Foerster", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 13, "currentSOG": 2.3846153846153846, "priorSOG": 2.103448275862069, "currentTOI": 17.555128205128206, "currentFiveTOI": 12.511538461538462, "ppShare": 0.4946236559139785, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 31.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.535897435897436, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.38 SOG/game in 13 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 13 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.625, "currentIXG": 0.27884615384615385, "priorTOI": 17.297701149425286, "priorPPTOI": 2.0482758620689654, "deploymentChange": 0.25742705570291946, "ppTOIChange": 0.4876215738284708, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.85 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15821213248405044, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 234.0, "goalExpected": 0.34767118512025186, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34767118512025186, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29366890979292704, "goalProbability": 0.29366890979292704, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 13, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.1975001516100607, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.00891484783277, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.920121334681497, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.511538461538462, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4946236559139785, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.585232974910394, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.46153846153846156, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0484552293030407, "Input_GP": 13, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1978.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3999.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.592564200843235, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.151515151515152, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.494827586206897, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.48103626042403236, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0272340036798875, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1440656386724308, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.246663107314469, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 12.895522388059701, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.3333333333333333 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 18.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 20.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Bump", "Denver Barkey", "Tyson Foerster" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 28, "priorAttempts": 59, "fitPct": 0.9078001226629198, "index": 100.90780012266292, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.74334140435835, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.34866828087167, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 22.91767554479419, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.639225181598063, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.995157384987895, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3559322033898307, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 18, "fitPct": 4.802187955747698, "index": 104.8021879557477, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 28.484848484848484, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 13.13131313131313, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 19.7979797979798, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 36.36363636363637, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.2222222222222223, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.9078001226629198, "zonePPFit": 4.802187955747698, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.683402966126147, "attemptProjection": 2.62912978849082, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 42.0, "sog": 19.0, "seconds": 9759.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.511538461538462, "projectedAttempts": 3.2307692307692304, "onNet": 0.47937210224708343, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1978.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.585232974910394, "projectedAttempts": 0.9410352588147036, "onNet": 0.5079899433246686, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6588131298944275, "ppAdjusted": 0.5359147858755944, "other": 0.46153846153846156 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.6562663773084836, "baseline": 2.103448275862069, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482159", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.4351391367299176, "adjustedSOG": 2.4111259069673694, "reductionPct": 0.9861132532572592, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6588131298944275, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6588131298944275, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6588131298944275, "afterRecentZones": 1.6579087858186723, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6579087858186723, "adjusted": 1.6579087858186723, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0272340036798875, "newChartFactor": 1.0261285896008623, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.88333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1755990025658631, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0410397944241867, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5359147858755944, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5052910838255604, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5269059943075332, "afterRecentZones": 0.5359147858755944, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5269059943075332, "adjusted": 0.4967970803471027, "playerFactor": 0.9428571428571428, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1.1440656386724308, "newChartFactor": 1.1440656386724308, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.316666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.5325794291868605, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.4111259069673694, "adjustedSOG": 2.362903388828022, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 20, "beforeSOG": 2.362903388828022, "adjustedSOG": 2.1975001516100607 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 40.0, "goalHistoryShots": 231.0, "goalExpected": 0.36186996407394995, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3578545199387565, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.30362708454864085, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2801868147038866 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12842852249672845, "modelSOG": 2.1975001516100607, "historyGames": 123, "seasonGames": { "2024": 81, "2025": 29, "2026": 13 }, "historyGoals": 40.0, "historyShots": 234.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.17094017094017094, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15821213248405044, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 57.4978021978022, "btb": { "id": "8482159", "name": "Tyson Foerster", "score": 57.4978021978022, "components": { "Goal model": 92.85714285714286, "SOG model": 86.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 4.166666666666667, "Shot quality": 82.85714285714286, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.46153846153846, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2365843479007204, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Bump", "Denver Barkey", "Tyson Foerster" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 44 } }, { "id": "8482165", "name": "Yan Kuznetsov", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.2, "priorSOG": 1.1228070175438596, "currentTOI": 17.24833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 14.921666666666667, "ppShare": 0.0036036036036036037, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 57, "currentTotalSOG": 12.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.013333333333333332, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.273, "currentIXG": 0.0273, "priorTOI": 20.084795321637426, "priorPPTOI": 0.056140350877192984, "deploymentChange": -2.8364619883040945, "ppTOIChange": -0.042807017543859655, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05558467006926722, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.0638723639253898, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06767404728465674, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06187526955233608, "goalProbability": 0.06543495204886061, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3559682496524531, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.1491003516939977, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.618898693175472, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.921666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0036036036036036037, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.012692237692237693, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.3, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.01231993739639, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 8.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2220.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.5821489576941574, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.631286549707603, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.014906931098051135, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0471380471380471, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9455414777491407, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9901124564982584, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.329524954900782, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.55 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 21.583333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Yan Kuznetsov", "Zayne Parekh" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 76, "fitPct": -1.815284075028643, "index": 98.18471592497136, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 80.94736842105263, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.36842105263158, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.0526315789473684, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5263157894736842, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.815284075028643, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1911012108484327, "attemptProjection": 1.388820772576811, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8953.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.921666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 3.1, "onNet": 0.3563195992221532, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 8.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.012692237692237693, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9899609917126218, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.3 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2899609917126218, "baseline": 1.1228070175438596, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 57, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482165", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.223099402045117, "adjustedSOG": 1.1725513792795894, "reductionPct": 4.1327812507313215, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9899609917126218, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9379962633270301, "afterRecentDefense": 0.967207941698207, "afterRecentZones": 0.9783774187842041, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9558906031127508, "adjusted": 0.9057142871034094, "playerFactor": 0.9475083070741068, "defenseFactor": 0.9770162155833513, "oldChartFactor": 0.9455414777491407, "newChartFactor": 0.9209589757145568, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.23333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6640925049862363, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8945910632623657, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.1725513792795894, "adjustedSOG": 1.1491003516939977, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 96, "beforeSOG": 1.1491003516939977, "adjustedSOG": 1.1491003516939977 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 76.0, "goalExpected": 0.0730328613967409, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0730328613967409, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07042971745397425, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782901932191032, "modelSOG": 1.1491003516939977, "historyGames": 67, "seasonGames": { "2025": 57, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 76.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05263157894736842, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05558467006926722, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 34.74333602052897, "btb": { "id": "8482165", "name": "Yan Kuznetsov", "score": 34.74333602052897, "components": { "Goal model": 16.428571428571427, "SOG model": 32.142857142857146, "Unit attack": 30.434782608695652, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 9.285714285714286, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 45.47692307692308, "Goalie H2H": 50.227998176014594 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0570745869641565, "unitPlayers": [ "Yan Kuznetsov", "Zayne Parekh" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 111 } }, { "id": "8482166", "name": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "D", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 0.5714285714285714, "priorSOG": 0.98, "currentTOI": 13.521428571428572, "currentFiveTOI": 13.052380952380952, "ppShare": 0.03007889546351085, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 50, "currentTotalSOG": 4.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.14523809523809522, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.57 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.239, "currentIXG": 0.03414285714285714, "priorTOI": 17.142333333333333, "priorPPTOI": 0.06, "deploymentChange": -3.620904761904761, "ppTOIChange": 0.08523809523809522, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020863", "date": "20260131", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020527", "date": "20251216", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020914", "date": "20250223", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.45 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.909090909090909, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07527163317880461, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 83.0, "goalExpected": 0.06239268864797633, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.061365076206034104, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.060486122091439665, "goalProbability": 0.05952016971378543, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.09659523776542334, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.8289004238790078, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9700839109813937, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.052380952380952, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03007889546351085, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1488829368637061, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 0.9968813884137818, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 61.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2028.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.8054147341171394, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.451666666666668, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.011939718979784991, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0388007054673722, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1382400975168188, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020863", "date": "20260131", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.033333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020527", "date": "20251216", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 16.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020914", "date": "20250223", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.45 }, { "gameId": "2024020576", "date": "20241228", "team": "SJS", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.85 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "Ty Emberson" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 68, "fitPct": 4.608003250560628, "index": 104.60800325056063, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.29411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 12.941176470588234, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.88235294117647, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.294117647058823, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5882352941176471, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.608003250560628, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6357142857142857, "attemptProjection": 0.8212006037316499, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 5482.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.052380952380952, "projectedAttempts": 1.7142857142857142, "onNet": 0.368740121564426, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 61.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1488829368637061, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5856003018658249, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7284574447229678, "baseline": 0.98, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 50, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482166", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8290744668337806, "adjustedSOG": 0.8289004238790078, "reductionPct": 0.020992439368872073, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5856003018658249, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5856003018658249, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5856003018658249, "afterRecentZones": 0.5853102302745368, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5853102302745368, "adjusted": 0.5853102302745368, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1382400975168188, "newChartFactor": 1.136900272696829, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 68.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.003294289897511, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.157696537898326, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.0166666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8289004238790078, "adjustedSOG": 0.8289004238790078, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 128, "beforeSOG": 0.8289004238790078, "adjustedSOG": 0.8289004238790078 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 80.0, "goalExpected": 0.04577025256159887, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.045780791984042876, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.04473859415756329, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0010067850445868998 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05774708871721246, "modelSOG": 0.8289004238790078, "historyGames": 87, "seasonGames": { "2024": 30, "2025": 50, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 83.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0963855421686747, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07527163317880461, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 25.415974025974027, "btb": { "id": "8482166", "name": "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "score": 25.415974025974027, "components": { "Goal model": 15.714285714285714, "SOG model": 9.285714285714286, "Unit attack": 0.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 17.142857142857142, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 47.6, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.2074998907318126, "unitPlayers": [ "Shakir Mukhamadullin", "Ty Emberson" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 141 } }, { "id": "8482169", "name": "Helge Grans", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.433333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 12.433333333333334, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.0, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.055072963009904254, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": 0.0, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.433333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0025049991305859, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 153.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.0, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 746.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.433333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.3972377507398882, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.0, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.0, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8482169", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.433333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0465532454298034, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.0, "adjustedSOG": 0.0 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.0, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057826611160399465, "modelSOG": 0.0, "historyGames": 7, "seasonGames": { "2024": 6, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 5.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.055072963009904254, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482259", "name": "Bobby McMann", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 2.3461538461538463, "currentTOI": 16.580555555555556, "currentFiveTOI": 13.652777777777779, "ppShare": 0.4389086595492289, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 78, "currentTotalSOG": 30.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.055555555555556, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.108, "currentIXG": 0.259, "priorTOI": 15.931410256410258, "priorPPTOI": 0.9378205128205129, "deploymentChange": 0.6491452991452977, "ppTOIChange": 1.1177350427350428, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.928571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1345415241172971, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.307765448370622, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3033590292025486, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.26491228618856955, "goalProbability": 0.2616660346763483, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.3246251512221243, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.287512724341545, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.789420142421159, "Current_PP_SOG60": 14.594594594594595, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.652777777777779, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4389086595492289, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.306099248714907, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 0.9820855078281815, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1480.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.171920968922208, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.303485987696513, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.307905982905982, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2252813246690618, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9819596160211851, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1660993350314286, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0363874665353208, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1450624552700208, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9853820067910034, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.090909090909092, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 18.508997429305914, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bobby McMann", "Matty Beniers", "Jordan Eberle" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 34, "priorAttempts": 226, "fitPct": 5.536644501047618, "index": 105.53664450104762, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 19.781363872982823, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.43466944299844, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 16.434148880791255, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 43 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.972410203019262, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 60 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.66215512753774, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 6.715252472670484, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 18 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": 1.2129155511773604, "index": 101.21291555117736, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 37.272727272727266, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 26.90909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.90909090909091, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.454545454545454, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.536644501047618, "zonePPFit": 1.2129155511773604, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.842868109189266, "attemptProjection": 2.547970300933402, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 39.0, "sog": 24.0, "seconds": 9830.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.652777777777779, "projectedAttempts": 3.25, "onNet": 0.5499065854453009, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1480.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.306099248714907, "projectedAttempts": 1.1218861209964412, "onNet": 0.5383704022833755, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.1090351699797054, "ppAdjusted": 0.5863840350816283, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.695419205061334, "baseline": 2.3461538461538463, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 78, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482259", "goals": 1, "sog": 8, "shootingPct": 0.125, "gamesWithAttempts": 4, "recordedAttempts": 14, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 6 }, { "gameId": "2025020921", "date": "20260226", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020672", "date": "20260106", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 }, { "gameId": "2025020413", "date": "20251202", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.5557130614983388, "adjustedSOG": 2.4596911014425213, "reductionPct": 3.7571494821692752, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.1090351699797054, "afterPlayerForm": 1.9923844589420794, "afterRecentDefense": 2.1090351699797054, "afterRecentZones": 2.1090351699797054, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.1090351699797054, "adjusted": 1.9923844589420794, "playerFactor": 0.9446900114810562, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1660993350314286, "newChartFactor": 1.1660993350314286, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 65.06666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6456231609920134, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3517003152458247, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5863840350816283, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5449735309786331, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5863840350816283, "afterRecentZones": 0.5842585480012699, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5842585480012699, "adjusted": 0.5429981460262253, "playerFactor": 0.9293798916315472, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0363874665353208, "newChartFactor": 1.0284169363659779, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.683333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.4862023653088041, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.4596911014425213, "adjustedSOG": 2.4596911014425213, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 14, "beforeSOG": 2.4596911014425213, "adjustedSOG": 2.287512724341545 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 52.0, "goalHistoryShots": 379.0, "goalExpected": 0.34726197202887144, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.3297371625394357, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.29337981071643615, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -1.2492529071867708 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284901462453721, "modelSOG": 2.287512724341545, "historyGames": 164, "seasonGames": { "2024": 74, "2025": 78, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 52.0, "historyShots": 382.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13612565445026178, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1345415241172971, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.475096508677105, "btb": { "id": "8482259", "name": "Bobby McMann", "score": 59.475096508677105, "components": { "Goal model": 87.85714285714286, "SOG model": 90.71428571428571, "Unit attack": 16.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50.0, "Shot quality": 78.57142857142857, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 54.00962309542903 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1206861868392313, "unitPlayers": [ "Bobby McMann", "Matty Beniers", "Jordan Eberle" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": 8, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 37 } }, { "id": "8482665", "name": "Matty Beniers", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.0833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.8170731707317074, "currentTOI": 17.631944444444446, "currentFiveTOI": 13.829166666666666, "ppShare": 0.47419928825622776, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.220833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.08 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.044, "currentIXG": 0.17033333333333334, "priorTOI": 19.276626016260163, "priorPPTOI": 2.5298780487804877, "deploymentChange": -1.6446815718157168, "ppTOIChange": -0.3090447154471545, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.333333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.428571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13654934194877125, "goalHistoryGoals": 43.0, "goalHistoryShots": 309.0, "goalExpected": 0.2035734415777578, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2006587871880985, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18418971227216585, "goalProbability": 0.1818084386268538, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2381273645312043, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.4908416157298785, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.892437481169027, "Current_PP_SOG60": 9.00562851782364, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.829166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.47419928825622776, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.49152209371293, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0144563171058298, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1599.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.6301630471188755, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.99060014461316, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.170934959349593, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6077221283701307, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1250111796798141, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2056671297169386, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.236653217611399, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.46278706264278, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.55784469096672, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 20.233333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.916666666666668 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Bobby McMann", "Matty Beniers", "Jordan Eberle" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 164, "fitPct": 6.855570990564615, "index": 106.85557099056462, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.585365853658537, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.512195121951223, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.414634146341463, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.390243902439025, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.853658536585368, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.24390243902439024, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 62, "fitPct": 7.888440587046631, "index": 107.88844058704663, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.225806451612903, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.48387096774194, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.258064516129032, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.161290322580645, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.87096774193548, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.855570990564615, "zonePPFit": 7.888440587046631, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.280056346381969, "attemptProjection": 1.3084315962778283, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 9957.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.829166666666666, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333333, "onNet": 0.46331676504090297, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 1599.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.49152209371293, "projectedAttempts": 0.5609430604982206, "onNet": 0.536246400400651, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8414877840717813, "ppAdjusted": 0.36942285392478413, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2942439713298985, "baseline": 1.8170731707317074, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482665", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.503375651090622, "adjustedSOG": 1.4908416157298785, "reductionPct": 0.8337261117439709, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8414877840717813, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8414877840717813, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8205977251372086, "afterRecentZones": 0.8414877840717813, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8205977251372086, "adjusted": 0.8205977251372086, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9751748518160417, "oldChartFactor": 1.2056671297169386, "newChartFactor": 1.2056671297169386, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 71.85, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0498513316884925, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8818658854948088, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.36942285392478413, "afterPlayerForm": 0.36942285392478413, "afterRecentDefense": 0.36942285392478413, "afterRecentZones": 0.36942285392478413, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.36942285392478413, "adjusted": 0.36942285392478413, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.236653217611399, "newChartFactor": 1.236653217611399, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.607843137254902, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4908416157298785, "adjustedSOG": 1.4908416157298785, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 70, "beforeSOG": 1.4908416157298785, "adjustedSOG": 1.4908416157298785 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 42.0, "goalHistoryShots": 308.0, "goalExpected": 0.17684151508556997, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1679170888272288, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.16208742949753543, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.7511356365706906 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284868085704744, "modelSOG": 1.4908416157298785, "historyGames": 176, "seasonGames": { "2024": 82, "2025": 82, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 43.0, "historyShots": 309.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13915857605177995, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13654934194877125, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.56449839395649, "btb": { "id": "8482665", "name": "Matty Beniers", "score": 51.56449839395649, "components": { "Goal model": 65.71428571428571, "SOG model": 50.714285714285715, "Unit attack": 16.666666666666668, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50.0, "Shot quality": 55.0, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 56.971428571428575, "Goalie H2H": 52.303641948222904 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.1206861868392313, "unitPlayers": [ "Bobby McMann", "Matty Beniers", "Jordan Eberle" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 56 } }, { "id": "8482679", "name": "Matt Coronato", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.3636363636363638, "priorSOG": 2.4625, "currentTOI": 17.5, "currentFiveTOI": 14.05, "ppShare": 0.6663858466722831, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 80, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.396969696969697, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.711, "currentIXG": 0.24645454545454545, "priorTOI": 16.651666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 2.611666666666667, "deploymentChange": 0.8483333333333327, "ppTOIChange": -0.21469696969696983, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.866666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 7, "h2hSOG": 1.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.166666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11303861732675405, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 403.0, "goalExpected": 0.2407077796310636, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2550347076486088, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2139287011258108, "goalProbability": 0.22511039710169659, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.1181695975885781, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.1294296172719793, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.435134260757037, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.929203539823009, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.05, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6663858466722831, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.347074898096381, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.45454545454545453, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 0.9926130288982566, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1582.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 8.561438876114279, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.912571793235482, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.227916666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6934750930973069, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9685942799715255, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.923042018557674, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8940532193483337, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.1985559566787005, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 22.06332992849847, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 13.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 16.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 9.0, "toi": 18.766666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020190", "date": "20241103", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 15.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.466666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Joel Farabee", "Mikael Backlund", "Matt Coronato" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 221, "fitPct": -2.5652660480775324, "index": 97.43473395192247, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 37.07821590174532, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 18.668390433096317, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 40 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.259211376858435, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 48 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.858435681965094, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.230769230769232, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 51 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.904977375565611, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 56, "fitPct": 9.033233251903695, "index": 109.0332332519037, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.928571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.565263623029622, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.857142857142858, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5309649899459572, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.382574193772484, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.499999999999996, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.999220132336035, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.42857142857143, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5973104262934754, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.24012500494106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.5652660480775324, "zonePPFit": 9.033233251903695, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.3090161841002743, "attemptProjection": 2.33621528917117, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 9273.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.05, "projectedAttempts": 3.1818181818181817, "onNet": 0.46002627537331386, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 1582.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.347074898096381, "projectedAttempts": 0.7121339766664114, "onNet": 0.5602651118298183, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2903543467641079, "ppAdjusted": 0.5777159353261595, "other": 0.45454545454545453 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.322615736635722, "baseline": 2.4625, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 80, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482679", "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 4, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 3, "attempts": 4 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.3785694419814334, "adjustedSOG": 2.3364380264120905, "reductionPct": 1.7712922240456397, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2903543467641079, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2362847895372946, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2903543467641079, "afterRecentZones": 1.2890605351850446, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2890605351850446, "adjusted": 1.2350451923834318, "playerFactor": 0.9580971247453023, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.923042018557674, "newChartFactor": 0.9209429637486317, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7337289598618905, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.062665747875295, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5777159353261595, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5777159353261595, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5628060637579312, "afterRecentZones": 0.5777159353261595, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5628060637579312, "adjusted": 0.5628060637579312, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.116666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2269906928645293, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.3364380264120905, "adjustedSOG": 2.2897092658838485, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 25, "beforeSOG": 2.2897092658838485, "adjustedSOG": 2.1294296172719793 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 44.0, "goalHistoryShots": 401.0, "goalExpected": 0.2683449777820733, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2683449777820733, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2353560495764736, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285842451535728, "modelSOG": 2.1294296172719793, "historyGames": 168, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 80, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 44.0, "historyShots": 403.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10918114143920596, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11303861732675405, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.37175873971593, "btb": { "id": "8482679", "name": "Matt Coronato", "score": 66.37175873971593, "components": { "Goal model": 77.14285714285714, "SOG model": 82.85714285714286, "Unit attack": 66.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 91.66666666666667, "Shot quality": 76.42857142857143, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 29.741176470588233, "Goalie H2H": 48.288723124177274 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.6258325117182384, "unitPlayers": [ "Joel Farabee", "Mikael Backlund", "Matt Coronato" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 7, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 15 } }, { "id": "8482684", "name": "Luke Hughes", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.8333333333333335, "priorSOG": 2.2058823529411766, "currentTOI": 23.995833333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 18.566666666666666, "ppShare": 0.6796830786644029, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 34.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.336111111111111, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.309, "currentIXG": 0.19241666666666668, "priorTOI": 23.011274509803922, "priorPPTOI": 1.9120098039215687, "deploymentChange": 0.9845588235294116, "ppTOIChange": 1.424101307189542, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 23.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.033333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.5, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.05625545225780382, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 305.0, "goalExpected": 0.12864237739005116, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.13094914026292212, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12071163727636243, "goalProbability": 0.12273760940901639, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.20259721326539581, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.2867539452090306, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.540394973070018, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.992506244796003, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.566666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6796830786644029, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.226606615104068, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9969135802469136, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2402.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.386258136293303, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.15254454557108, "Prior_5v5_Min": 19.16642156862745, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.492977132369125, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0101010101010102, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0404815061521484, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8967646619802307, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0509914203557056, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9081094941190091, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.323281061519904, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.163749294184077, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 23.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 20.916666666666668 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 24.716666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 22.75 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 21.033333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Luke Hughes", "Brett Pesce" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 33, "priorAttempts": 174, "fitPct": 1.3493835384049504, "index": 101.34938353840495, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 53.68861024033438, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 107 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.309299895506792, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.80146290491118, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.608150470219435, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.854754440961338, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.7377220480668756, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": -3.441177933992307, "index": 96.55882206600769, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 82.9, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.4308377393890765, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.7777529103887986, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.2, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8481532609711167, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.1, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.3116478272855545, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.707344172544424, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -45.928925643622854, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.3493835384049504, "zonePPFit": -3.441177933992307, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.8914641702610457, "attemptProjection": 2.767518380003432, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 57.0, "sog": 28.0, "seconds": 13368.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.566666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 4.75, "onNet": 0.4473073601588263, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 2402.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.226606615104068, "projectedAttempts": 1.4507640067911713, "onNet": 0.39258312020460356, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.3359144057415806, "ppAdjusted": 0.49357686939065826, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.8294912751322387, "baseline": 2.2058823529411766, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482684", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.580047706255814, "adjustedSOG": 2.509056336634881, "reductionPct": 2.7515525952795716, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.3359144057415806, "afterPlayerForm": 2.228524074050806, "afterRecentDefense": 2.3359144057415806, "afterRecentZones": 2.3290487963600612, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.3290487963600612, "adjusted": 2.2219741012640735, "playerFactor": 0.9540264268986854, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0404815061521484, "newChartFactor": 1.034655546191259, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 93.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7488865858099212, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3247605265715614, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.49357686939065826, "afterPlayerForm": 0.489198224499944, "afterRecentDefense": 0.4935768693906582, "afterRecentZones": 0.4935768693906582, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4935768693906582, "adjusted": 0.48919822449994393, "playerFactor": 0.9911287477954145, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8967646619802307, "newChartFactor": 0.8967646619802307, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9435465768799103, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.509056336634881, "adjustedSOG": 2.4588752099021836, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 15, "beforeSOG": 2.4588752099021836, "adjustedSOG": 2.2867539452090306 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 303.0, "goalExpected": 0.12571496107051078, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12479123388737672, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11813382284666686, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08149801114143845 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783458164410545, "modelSOG": 2.2867539452090306, "historyGames": 151, "seasonGames": { "2024": 71, "2025": 68, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 305.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05573770491803279, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.05625545225780382, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 51.027689629211366, "btb": { "id": "8482684", "name": "Luke Hughes", "score": 51.027689629211366, "components": { "Goal model": 39.285714285714285, "SOG model": 90.0, "Unit attack": 73.91304347826087, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 83.33333333333333, "Shot quality": 65.0, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 36.53333333333333, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.765991655347218, "unitPlayers": [ "Luke Hughes", "Brett Pesce" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 59 } }, { "id": "8482703", "name": "Colton Dach", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "L", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.75, "priorSOG": 0.9508196721311475, "currentTOI": 13.5625, "currentFiveTOI": 12.529166666666667, "ppShare": 0.1711297071129707, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 14.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8520833333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.393, "currentIXG": 0.174125, "priorTOI": 11.477868852459016, "priorPPTOI": 0.7265027322404373, "deploymentChange": 2.0846311475409838, "ppTOIChange": 0.12558060109289604, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020745", "date": "20260115", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020312", "date": "20251118", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020229", "date": "20251107", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.6666666666666667, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.545454545454546, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10480258409842821, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 99.0, "goalExpected": 0.14584574215114635, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14344365141765658, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.13570898342493962, "goalProbability": 0.13363038248842954, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20786009365100777, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.391623531097013, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.183239108746259, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.6039119804401, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.529166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1711297071129707, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8470488356367017, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 1.0024035877344022, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 409.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2390.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.014574251296206, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.415569763068823, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.59207650273224, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1783825291510521, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0473353194306523, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1825410390244666, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9095112774543304, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9106477375320929, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 9.011264080100124, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 27.376425855513308, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.6666666666666667 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020745", "date": "20260115", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 8.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020312", "date": "20251118", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 14.566666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020229", "date": "20251107", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.016666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020690", "date": "20250113", "team": "CHI", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.25 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Colton Dach", "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "Kasperi Kapanen" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 100, "fitPct": 6.084701300815553, "index": 106.08470130081555, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.933333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.066666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.93333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.666666666666664, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.733333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9, "fitPct": -3.0162907515223196, "index": 96.98370924847768, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 34.44444444444444, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.77777777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.77777777777778, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.084701300815553, "zonePPFit": -3.0162907515223196, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9513168036435469, "attemptProjection": 1.466472190041972, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 18.0, "sog": 12.0, "seconds": 6014.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.529166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.25, "onNet": 0.5493942218080149, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 409.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8470488356367017, "projectedAttempts": 0.24852288576137951, "onNet": 0.539034585046855, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.52575823698646, "ppAdjusted": 0.1831362598562994, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7088944968427593, "baseline": 0.9508196721311475, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482703", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020745", "date": "20260115", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4056645669581145, "adjustedSOG": 1.391623531097013, "reductionPct": 0.9988895068676618, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.52575823698646, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5132271655481087, "afterRecentDefense": 1.52575823698646, "afterRecentZones": 1.52575823698646, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.52575823698646, "adjusted": 1.5132271655481087, "playerFactor": 0.9917869875222817, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1825410390244666, "newChartFactor": 1.1825410390244666, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 64.66666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9472222222222222, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0369741716468963, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.1831362598562994, "afterPlayerForm": 0.1722656048594816, "afterRecentDefense": 0.1831362598562994, "afterRecentZones": 0.1831362598562994, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.1831362598562994, "adjusted": 0.1722656048594816, "playerFactor": 0.9406417112299466, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9095112774543304, "newChartFactor": 0.9095112774543304, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.391623531097013, "adjustedSOG": 1.391623531097013, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 75, "beforeSOG": 1.391623531097013, "adjustedSOG": 1.391623531097013 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 97.0, "goalExpected": 0.12084628442670538, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12087411145345485, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11382983272071398, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.002465913785262841 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855714235587212, "modelSOG": 1.391623531097013, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 25, "2025": 61, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 99.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08080808080808081, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10480258409842821, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 42.74167463179775, "btb": { "id": "8482703", "name": "Colton Dach", "score": 42.74167463179775, "components": { "Goal model": 47.142857142857146, "SOG model": 47.142857142857146, "Unit attack": 6.666666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 57.857142857142854, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 43.371428571428574, "Goalie H2H": 50.43319653442772 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7803001179944162, "unitPlayers": [ "Colton Dach", "Ryan Nugent-Hopkins", "Kasperi Kapanen" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 87 } }, { "id": "8482713", "name": "Mackie Samoskevich", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.7272727272727273, "priorSOG": 2.090909090909091, "currentTOI": 15.259090909090908, "currentFiveTOI": 13.92878787878788, "ppShare": 0.2222222222222222, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 77, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.003030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.73 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.8900000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.17181818181818184, "priorTOI": 14.46948051948052, "priorPPTOI": 1.991991341991342, "deploymentChange": 0.7896103896103881, "ppTOIChange": -0.988961038961039, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021270", "date": "20260411", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020921", "date": "20260226", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020672", "date": "20260106", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020413", "date": "20251202", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021237", "date": "20250408", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.716666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 2.4, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10967811278040616, "goalHistoryGoals": 32.0, "goalHistoryShots": 309.0, "goalExpected": 0.21222465608512986, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2091861382870398, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.191217020862624, "goalProbability": 0.18875578202034285, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24612388422811382, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.9349772776455312, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.657239203741978, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.438066465256798, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.92878787878788, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2222222222222222, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1675925925925925, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 0.9659555003468241, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 662.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2979.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.8043536683687185, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 13.691187656199066, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.081168831168831, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3896474363893574, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9106786427145709, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2198261374132702, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1108696111672745, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.527831094049904, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.278350515463918, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021270", "date": "20260411", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.616666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020921", "date": "20260226", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 14.2 }, { "gameId": "2025020672", "date": "20260106", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 14.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020413", "date": "20251202", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 17.316666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021237", "date": "20250408", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021194", "date": "20250402", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 7.0, "toi": 15.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024021040", "date": "20250313", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.033333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020352", "date": "20241127", "team": "FLA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jani Nyman", "Chandler Stephenson", "Mackie Samoskevich" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 194, "fitPct": 7.3275379137756715, "index": 107.32753791377567, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.192127460168697, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.149953139643861, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 32.49297094657919, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 65 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.78444236176195, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.167760074976567, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 33 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.212746016869728, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 50, "fitPct": 21.030294800645436, "index": 121.03029480064544, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.800000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.800000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.4, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.4, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 69.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.3275379137756715, "zonePPFit": 21.030294800645436, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.9294052982496959, "attemptProjection": 1.769504940248641, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 9193.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.92878787878788, "projectedAttempts": 2.6363636363636362, "onNet": 0.5329396633763503, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 662.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1675925925925925, "projectedAttempts": 0.317472306143001, "onNet": 0.499912763889235, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6162362636010215, "ppAdjusted": 0.14230976473905604, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8494551192491684, "baseline": 2.090909090909091, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 77, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482713", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9460367079131373, "adjustedSOG": 1.9349772776455312, "reductionPct": 0.5683053265457594, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6162362636010215, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6033590722291806, "afterRecentDefense": 1.615059119170021, "afterRecentZones": 1.6118103762625793, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6106364553136587, "adjusted": 1.5978038798216778, "playerFactor": 0.9920326058374968, "defenseFactor": 0.9992716755232445, "oldChartFactor": 1.2198261374132702, "newChartFactor": 1.2135367410884599, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.76666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9495756365451822, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9965341609848044, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.14230976473905604, "afterPlayerForm": 0.14230976473905604, "afterRecentDefense": 0.14230976473905604, "afterRecentZones": 0.14230976473905604, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.14230976473905604, "adjusted": 0.14230976473905604, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.966666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.055821371610845, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9349772776455312, "adjustedSOG": 1.9349772776455312, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 42, "beforeSOG": 1.9349772776455312, "adjustedSOG": 1.9349772776455312 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 31.0, "goalHistoryShots": 304.0, "goalExpected": 0.14918039745971465, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14165190814726425, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1385862959624543, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.6509616909050275 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285834812718612, "modelSOG": 1.9349772776455312, "historyGames": 160, "seasonGames": { "2024": 72, "2025": 77, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 32.0, "historyShots": 309.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10355987055016182, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10967811278040616, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 52.258896103896106, "btb": { "id": "8482713", "name": "Mackie Samoskevich", "score": 52.258896103896106, "components": { "Goal model": 69.28571428571429, "SOG model": 70.71428571428571, "Unit attack": 23.333333333333332, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 25.0, "Shot quality": 56.42857142857143, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 62.97777777777778, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.211231664385414, "unitPlayers": [ "Jani Nyman", "Chandler Stephenson", "Mackie Samoskevich" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 55 } }, { "id": "8482742", "name": "Zachary L'Heureux", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.28, "currentTOI": 9.083333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 8.972222222222223, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 25, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.641, "currentIXG": 0.21366666666666667, "priorTOI": 13.390666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.446, "deploymentChange": -4.307333333333332, "ppTOIChange": -0.446, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021144", "date": "20260326", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020336", "date": "20241125", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.783333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 0.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10118867738144095, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.13727104301295734, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14209131775577435, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12826608327873645, "goalProbability": 0.13245796912268296, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.41918858439465023, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.3565850109444584, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 13.374613003095975, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.972222222222223, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.009251487172001, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 813.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.427899402931065, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 37.66816143497758, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.054, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.11045160770733084, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9550419788751467, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8932949673231535, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8531341933115141, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 13.374613003095975, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021144", "date": "20260326", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.133333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020336", "date": "20241125", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.783333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 40, "fitPct": -3.5568344225615505, "index": 96.44316557743845, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.571428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 55.28571428571429, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.571428571428575, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.5568344225615505, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7062683866230286, "attemptProjection": 1.1090149831918326, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1615.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.972222222222223, "projectedAttempts": 2.3333333333333335, "onNet": 0.5428365983268735, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4076416849074307, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.4076416849074307, "baseline": 1.28, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 25, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482742", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3565850109444584, "adjustedSOG": 1.3565850109444584, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4076416849074307, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4076416849074307, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4076416849074307, "afterRecentZones": 1.4076416849074307, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4076416849074307, "adjusted": 1.4076416849074307, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8932949673231535, "newChartFactor": 0.8932949673231535, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 26.916666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0636926250644663, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.3565850109444584, "adjustedSOG": 1.3565850109444584, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.3565850109444584, "adjustedSOG": 1.3565850109444584 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.14802259250309047, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14802259250309047, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1375883693154843, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12856754314391247, "modelSOG": 1.3565850109444584, "historyGames": 90, "seasonGames": { "2024": 62, "2025": 25, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 9.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07758620689655173, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10118867738144095, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482747", "name": "Brennan Othmann", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "L", "currentGP": 5, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.7894736842105263, "currentTOI": 11.026666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 10.786666666666665, "ppShare": 0.03933333333333333, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 19, "currentTotalSOG": 5.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.19666666666666666, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 5 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 5 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.293, "currentIXG": 0.0586, "priorTOI": 10.001754385964912, "priorPPTOI": 0.2692982456140351, "deploymentChange": 1.0249122807017557, "ppTOIChange": -0.07263157894736844, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021069", "date": "20250316", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.0 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1061023190565955, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 40.0, "goalExpected": 0.09888571729700653, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10477139559061623, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0941537753365939, "goalProbability": 0.09946963573073309, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5315860394139185, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 5, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9319845049217105, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.562422744128554, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.786666666666665, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03933333333333333, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.13853577441077441, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.0318189686373864, "Input_GP": 5, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 59.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1500.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.932858317347218, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.602631578947367, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.07150668511096403, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1248532996298637, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.111272602967208, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.901639344262295, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021069", "date": "20250316", "team": "NYR", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 6.0 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brennan Othmann", "Jonathan Castagna", "Adam Klapka" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 23, "fitPct": 3.709086765573602, "index": 103.7090867655736, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 6.956521739130435, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.217391304347827, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 29.316770186335404, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.434782608695654, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.788819875776397, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 34.285714285714285, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.709086765573602, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.1499999999999997, "attemptProjection": 0.9838071874952707, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 3236.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.786666666666665, "projectedAttempts": 1.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.49902810174386314, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 59.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.13853577441077441, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0669035937476352, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0669035937476352, "baseline": 0.7894736842105263, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 19, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482747", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9559316299327916, "adjustedSOG": 0.9510045968588883, "reductionPct": 0.5154168896210343, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0669035937476352, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0669035937476352, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0669035937476352, "afterRecentZones": 1.0586918719577962, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0586918719577962, "adjusted": 1.0586918719577962, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.111272602967208, "newChartFactor": 1.0954022352311437, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.93333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0120626170240905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.9833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9510045968588883, "adjustedSOG": 0.9319845049217105, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 117, "beforeSOG": 0.9319845049217105, "adjustedSOG": 0.9319845049217105 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 39.0, "goalExpected": 0.0990001541000818, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0990001541000818, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09425743155146614, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285432466792337, "modelSOG": 0.9319845049217105, "historyGames": 46, "seasonGames": { "2024": 22, "2025": 19, "2026": 5 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 40.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1061023190565955, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 38.080670995671, "btb": { "id": "8482747", "name": "Brennan Othmann", "score": 38.080670995671, "components": { "Goal model": 29.285714285714285, "SOG model": 17.142857142857142, "Unit attack": 13.333333333333334, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 33.57142857142857, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 50.945454545454545, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9274585057023352, "unitPlayers": [ "Brennan Othmann", "Jonathan Castagna", "Adam Klapka" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 102 } }, { "id": "8482751", "name": "Ryan Winterton", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5, "priorSOG": 1.2794117647058822, "currentTOI": 13.369444444444445, "currentFiveTOI": 11.720833333333333, "ppShare": 0.010083036773428233, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 18.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.04722222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.50 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.123, "currentIXG": 0.1769166666666667, "priorTOI": 11.979166666666668, "priorPPTOI": 0.03259803921568628, "deploymentChange": 1.3902777777777775, "ppTOIChange": 0.014624183006535944, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.08572653492592075, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 120.0, "goalExpected": 0.12556419897800536, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12376643871567021, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11800086083392569, "goalProbability": 0.11641381169061454, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.15870491433111478, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.4647063372677982, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.252044081052257, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.720833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.010083036773428233, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05297795571372084, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.08333333333333333, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 0.9659555003468241, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 34.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.851462093054498, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.946568627450981, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00783063427994065, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9106786427145709, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.193154863207765, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.086580651374337, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.6835515082527035, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.533333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ben Meyers", "Frederick Gaudreau", "Ryan Winterton" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": 6.4384954402588335, "index": 106.43849544025883, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.361344537815125, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.575630252100847, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.60924369747899, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.197478991596639, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.23109243697479, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.025210084033613, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.4384954402588335, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6226559227803108, "attemptProjection": 1.588145144898578, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 8439.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.720833333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.7499999999999996, "onNet": 0.50725582417749, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 34.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05297795571372084, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5099075297225891, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.522067200506111, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.08333333333333333 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6054005338394444, "baseline": 1.2794117647058822, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482751", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.4750050261860195, "adjustedSOG": 1.4647063372677982, "reductionPct": 0.6982138186234499, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.522067200506111, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5059995753284376, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5209586417087158, "afterRecentZones": 1.522067200506111, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5209586417087158, "adjusted": 1.5049027189757425, "playerFactor": 0.9894435507365701, "defenseFactor": 0.9992716755232445, "oldChartFactor": 1.193154863207765, "newChartFactor": 1.193154863207765, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.61666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.929397412763362, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9965341609848044, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.4647063372677982, "adjustedSOG": 1.4647063372677982, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 72, "beforeSOG": 1.4647063372677982, "adjustedSOG": 1.4647063372677982 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 118.0, "goalExpected": 0.11894314133695502, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1129405955360809, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11214171823833023, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.5345437066455503 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859837683702566, "modelSOG": 1.4647063372677982, "historyGames": 92, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 68, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 120.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.05, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.08572653492592075, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 40.47461038961039, "btb": { "id": "8482751", "name": "Ryan Winterton", "score": 40.47461038961039, "components": { "Goal model": 35.714285714285715, "SOG model": 49.285714285714285, "Unit attack": 30.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 57.142857142857146, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 48.06666666666666, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2277187263032197, "unitPlayers": [ "Ben Meyers", "Frederick Gaudreau", "Ryan Winterton" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 97 } }, { "id": "8482768", "name": "Fedor Svechkov", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.9166666666666666, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 13.470833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 12.204166666666666, "ppShare": 0.006622516556291391, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 70, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.034722222222222224, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.92 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.698, "currentIXG": 0.1415, "priorTOI": 12.076666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0.2585714285714286, "deploymentChange": 1.394166666666667, "ppTOIChange": -0.2238492063492064, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021144", "date": "20260326", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020911", "date": "20250223", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10961485076698517, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 145.0, "goalExpected": 0.10285616639533914, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10646796222741159, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09774326101192932, "goalProbability": 0.10099615021924552, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3252889207316201, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9383415264961372, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.506657562307955, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.204166666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.006622516556291391, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03036699779249448, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 0.9872883796894324, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 25.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.898584003061615, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 9.94475138121547, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.198571428571428, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.06403504482712007, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.879552162353343, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9225754312074278, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.821624254231097, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 14.45 }, { "gameId": "2025021144", "date": "20260326", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 10.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020911", "date": "20250223", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020336", "date": "20241125", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.183333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Parker Kelly", "Fedor Svechkov", "Logan O'Connor" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 94, "fitPct": -2.5808189597524063, "index": 97.4191810402476, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 26.606942889137734, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.151175811870104, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 22 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.5946248600224, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.25531914893617, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.531914893617022, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.860022396416573, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.5808189597524063, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7791666666666666, "attemptProjection": 1.0153050883204573, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 8787.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.204166666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.583333333333333, "onNet": 0.44887416151783965, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 25.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03036699779249448, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8972358774935619, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8972358774935619, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 70, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482768", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9383415264961371, "adjustedSOG": 0.9383415264961372, "reductionPct": -2.220446049250313e-14, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8972358774935619, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8972358774935619, "afterRecentDefense": 0.897235877493562, "afterRecentZones": 0.897235877493562, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.897235877493562, "adjusted": 0.897235877493562, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9225754312074278, "newChartFactor": 0.9225754312074278, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.233333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0368235699892896, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0090364822745925, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.4166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9383415264961372, "adjustedSOG": 0.9383415264961372, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 116, "beforeSOG": 0.9383415264961372, "adjustedSOG": 0.9383415264961372 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 145.0, "goalExpected": 0.12302537844435667, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12302537844435667, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11575877839057663, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12855638437911365, "modelSOG": 0.9383415264961372, "historyGames": 134, "seasonGames": { "2024": 52, "2025": 70, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 145.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09655172413793103, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10961485076698517, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 40.43624173136485, "btb": { "id": "8482768", "name": "Fedor Svechkov", "score": 40.43624173136485, "components": { "Goal model": 31.428571428571427, "SOG model": 17.857142857142858, "Unit attack": 60.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 42.857142857142854, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 39.6, "Goalie H2H": 50.43319653442772 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4909034769007357, "unitPlayers": [ "Parker Kelly", "Fedor Svechkov", "Logan O'Connor" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 98 } }, { "id": "8482858", "name": "Ryker Evans", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.8333333333333334, "priorSOG": 0.6865671641791045, "currentTOI": 22.433333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 19.397222222222222, "ppShare": 0.13552787663107949, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 67, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.6347222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.592, "currentIXG": 0.04933333333333333, "priorTOI": 17.80497512437811, "priorPPTOI": 0.3383084577114428, "deploymentChange": 4.628358208955223, "ppTOIChange": 0.2964137645107794, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.516666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09657190347211651, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 115.0, "goalExpected": 0.07787514160775863, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07676016746588023, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07492007667506086, "goalProbability": 0.0738880612530419, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10320154220189587, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.80639542980784, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.3199198052413004, "Current_PP_SOG60": 7.87746170678337, "Current_5v5_Min": 19.397222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.13552787663107949, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.7120860517991301, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0193427190652695, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 457.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.352135901185402, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.294117647058823, "Prior_5v5_Min": 15.99054726368159, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.08126776548186639, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1466049382716048, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2485308753375821, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9293405289810646, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.883603348177276, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4525249084561014, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 8.823529411764707, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.733333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 25.516666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ryker Evans", "Brandon Montour" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 69, "fitPct": 8.284362511252738, "index": 108.28436251125274, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 55.507246376811594, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.1594202898550725, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.604554865424431, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.233954451345756, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.629399585921325, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.865424430641823, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": -2.3553157006311807, "index": 97.64468429936882, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 80.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 8.284362511252738, "zonePPFit": -2.3553157006311807, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9451085277321726, "attemptProjection": 0.8336134416049837, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 13966.0, "expectedMinutes": 19.397222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 1.8333333333333333, "onNet": 0.40085954912492233, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 457.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.7120860517991301, "projectedAttempts": 0.09349051008303677, "onNet": 0.4254049445865303, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8276431383669595, "ppAdjusted": 0.06171784630161868, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8893609846685782, "baseline": 0.6865671641791045, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 67, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482858", "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 1.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8082434564727887, "adjustedSOG": 0.80639542980784, "reductionPct": 0.2286472782611404, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8276431383669595, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8276431383669595, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8276431383669595, "afterRecentZones": 0.8245630939253782, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8245630939253782, "adjusted": 0.8245630939253782, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2485308753375821, "newChartFactor": 1.2396137029718404, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 96.68333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0943254297848335, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.231012787098876, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.06171784630161868, "afterPlayerForm": 0.06171784630161868, "afterRecentDefense": 0.06171784630161868, "afterRecentZones": 0.06171784630161868, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.06171784630161868, "adjusted": 0.06171784630161868, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9293405289810646, "newChartFactor": 0.9293405289810646, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.3, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.208994708994709, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.80639542980784, "adjustedSOG": 0.80639542980784, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 130, "beforeSOG": 0.80639542980784, "adjustedSOG": 0.80639542980784 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 15.0, "goalHistoryShots": 114.0, "goalExpected": 0.09016838768547798, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.085617979223171, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08622269652948206, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.41675347759778797 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05762959246505051, "modelSOG": 0.80639542980784, "historyGames": 152, "seasonGames": { "2024": 73, "2025": 67, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 15.0, "historyShots": 115.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13043478260869565, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09657190347211651, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 32.72591572873289, "btb": { "id": "8482858", "name": "Ryker Evans", "score": 32.72591572873289, "components": { "Goal model": 21.428571428571427, "SOG model": 7.857142857142857, "Unit attack": 43.47826086956522, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 11.428571428571429, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 50.13333333333333, "Goalie H2H": 50.93479252165983 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.3920681345564914, "unitPlayers": [ "Ryker Evans", "Brandon Montour" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 119 } }, { "id": "8482866", "name": "Ville Ottavainen", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.625, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 11.660416666666666, "currentFiveTOI": 11.610416666666667, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 13.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.62 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.48200000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.060250000000000005, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.0594874558409676, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 14.0, "goalExpected": 0.08753547183367981, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0862821863105116, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08381362773614205, "goalProbability": 0.0826646647803322, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.11489629558098513, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.471494630190525, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.397631437286918, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.610416666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0193427190652695, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2052.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1466049382716048, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.761662093296747, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 14.37550041181838, "index": 114.37550041181838, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 46.15384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 38.46153846153847, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 14.37550041181838, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.86875, "attemptProjection": 1.0742392603810498, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 5573.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.610416666666667, "projectedAttempts": 2.0000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4979073869241577, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.471494630190525, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.471494630190525, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482866", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.471494630190525, "adjustedSOG": 1.471494630190525, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.471494630190525, "afterPlayerForm": 1.471494630190525, "afterRecentDefense": 1.471494630190525, "afterRecentZones": 1.471494630190525, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.471494630190525, "adjusted": 1.471494630190525, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1991979655712048, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.231012787098876, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.471494630190525, "adjustedSOG": 1.471494630190525, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.471494630190525, "adjustedSOG": 1.471494630190525 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 12.0, "goalExpected": 0.09722383755368973, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09231737105807643, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09264711624891998, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4462835948379859 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05781569965870307, "modelSOG": 1.471494630190525, "historyGames": 9, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 14.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07142857142857142, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.0594874558409676, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482874", "name": "Jacob Melanson", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 1, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 0.9166666666666666, "currentTOI": 9.516666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.783333333333333, "ppShare": 0.01272264631043257, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 36, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.08333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 1 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 1 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.274, "currentIXG": 0.274, "priorTOI": 9.366666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.01064814814814815, "deploymentChange": 0.15000000000000036, "ppTOIChange": 0.07268518518518519, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.016666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11084812303236014, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 34.0, "goalExpected": 0.1121843691311678, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11057817403319661, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10612056146839174, "goalProbability": 0.10468366303535202, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1436898433039721, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 1, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.0120547471824812, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.83111954459203, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.783333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.01272264631043257, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.06684690415606445, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 0.9659555003468241, "Input_GP": 1, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 5.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 393.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.881188118811881, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.351851851851853, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.00255787636044845, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9106786427145709, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1748005538564428, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0698657738463115, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.83111954459203, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.016666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 67, "fitPct": 5.8266851285480925, "index": 105.82668512854809, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.582089552238806, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 37.76119402985074, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 44.32835820895522, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.970149253731343, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.761194029850746, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5970149253731344, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.8266851285480925, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0698657738463115, "attemptProjection": 1.082995809659404, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 527.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.783333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.5019660270525322, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 5.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.06684690415606445, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5099075297225891, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.0764307917528577, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.0764307917528577, "baseline": 0.9166666666666666, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 36, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482874", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.0125251417183811, "adjustedSOG": 1.0120547471824812, "reductionPct": 0.046457565992052974, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.0764307917528577, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0764307917528577, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0756468008596909, "afterRecentZones": 1.0764307917528577, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0756468008596909, "adjusted": 1.0756468008596909, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9992716755232445, "oldChartFactor": 1.1748005538564428, "newChartFactor": 1.1748005538564428, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.783333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9965341609848044, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.08333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.0120547471824812, "adjustedSOG": 1.0120547471824812, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.0120547471824812, "adjustedSOG": 1.0120547471824812 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 34.0, "goalExpected": 0.09420940125759164, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08945506032153361, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08990783215836039, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.43371905206446293 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853648486336258, "modelSOG": 1.0120547471824812, "historyGames": 38, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 36, "2026": 1 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 34.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.058823529411764705, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11084812303236014, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8482953", "name": "Taylor Makar", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.5833333333333334, "currentTOI": 6.608333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 5.85, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 12, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.12, "currentIXG": 0.06, "priorTOI": 6.209722222222222, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 0.39861111111111125, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.666666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11900437255648631, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.07111265796304826, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07360978001843696, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06864303856108227, "goalProbability": 0.07096584919308806, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.23228106320057895, "recentlyDressed": true, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.5975634040614273, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 5.85, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.009251487172001, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 693.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9550419788751467, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9550419788751467, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5, "attemptProjection": 0.7141002357603132, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 702.0, "expectedMinutes": 5.85, "projectedAttempts": 0.5, "onNet": 0.48905266871827036, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.10705011788015659, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6070501178801566, "baseline": 0.5833333333333334, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 12, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8482953", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.5975634040614273, "adjustedSOG": 0.5975634040614273, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.10705011788015659, "afterPlayerForm": 0.10705011788015659, "afterRecentDefense": 0.10705011788015659, "afterRecentZones": 0.10705011788015659, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.10705011788015659, "adjusted": 0.10705011788015659, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.7, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0636926250644663, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.5975634040614273, "adjustedSOG": 0.5975634040614273, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.5975634040614273, "adjustedSOG": 0.5975634040614273 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 7.0, "goalExpected": 0.027483074481189886, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.027483074481189886, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.02710885089845453, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285247223610052, "modelSOG": 0.5975634040614273, "historyGames": 14, "seasonGames": { "2025": 12, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 8.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11900437255648631, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483455", "name": "Isaac Howard", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.9090909090909091, "priorSOG": 1.2413793103448276, "currentTOI": 9.521212121212121, "currentFiveTOI": 8.218181818181819, "ppShare": 0.2596546310832025, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 29, "currentTotalSOG": 10.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.253030303030303, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.989, "currentIXG": 0.08990909090909091, "priorTOI": 10.310919540229884, "priorPPTOI": 0.4454022988505747, "deploymentChange": -0.7897074190177626, "ppTOIChange": 0.8076280041797282, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.716666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.090909090909091, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10858989112706544, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 46.0, "goalExpected": 0.12794883391186426, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12584150665110683, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12010160104807845, "goalProbability": 0.11824541205335337, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18561889947250748, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.1782757362022414, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.3097345132743365, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.706166868198308, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.218181818181819, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2596546310832025, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.285224854510569, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 1.0012772668533654, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 827.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3185.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.590488461988989, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.812643678160919, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10936227082538141, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0581474413809744, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1587353511656813, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.189770957457618, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.540994776288894, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 5.013927576601671, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 10.716666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Mathieu Joseph", "Jason Dickinson", "Isaac Howard" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 54, "fitPct": 5.291178372189378, "index": 105.29117837218938, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 31.798941798941797, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.682539682539684, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 10.952380952380953, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.32804232804233, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.497354497354497, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.7407407407407408, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": 6.325698581920605, "index": 106.3256985819206, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.291178372189378, "zonePPFit": 6.325698581920605, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0508267922553636, "attemptProjection": 1.2302359723329597, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 5424.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.218181818181819, "projectedAttempts": 2.0, "onNet": 0.4597532417601622, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 827.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.285224854510569, "projectedAttempts": 0.4662242519385377, "onNet": 0.49991593611144464, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9115496646398663, "ppAdjusted": 0.22898171765429537, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1405313822941616, "baseline": 1.2413793103448276, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 29, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483455", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.180870553514428, "adjustedSOG": 1.1782757362022414, "reductionPct": 0.21973765917560062, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9115496646398663, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9115496646398663, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9085021070868944, "afterRecentZones": 0.9110566626688679, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9080107533550854, "adjusted": 0.9080107533550854, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9966567290064487, "oldChartFactor": 1.1587353511656813, "newChartFactor": 1.1573692974848349, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 42.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1661590282008099, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9841088217197997, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.22898171765429537, "afterPlayerForm": 0.22898171765429537, "afterRecentDefense": 0.22898171765429537, "afterRecentZones": 0.2281959334187651, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2281959334187651, "adjusted": 0.2281959334187651, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.189770957457618, "newChartFactor": 1.1810524131615157, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 4.833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1406896551724137, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.1782757362022414, "adjustedSOG": 1.1782757362022414, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 94, "beforeSOG": 1.1782757362022414, "adjustedSOG": 1.1782757362022414 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 45.0, "goalExpected": 0.10745839077035041, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10748313499420974, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10188610849948859, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.002222285623765252 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854124104551554, "modelSOG": 1.1782757362022414, "historyGames": 40, "seasonGames": { "2025": 29, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 46.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06521739130434782, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10858989112706544, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 42.407402597402594, "btb": { "id": "8483455", "name": "Isaac Howard", "score": 42.407402597402594, "components": { "Goal model": 38.57142857142857, "SOG model": 33.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 50, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 25.0, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 50.4, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Complete projected unit unavailable; unit attack scored neutral", "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Projected complete unit unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" }, "pair": { "available": false, "score": 50, "reason": "Projected complete unit unavailable" } }, "unitKind": null, "unitAttackXGF60": null, "unitPlayers": [], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 88 } }, { "id": "8483460", "name": "David Jiricek", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 9, "currentSOG": 0.6666666666666666, "priorSOG": 0.6153846153846154, "currentTOI": 14.807407407407409, "currentFiveTOI": 12.368518518518519, "ppShare": 0.42562141491395794, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 26, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.0611111111111113, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.67 SOG/game in 9 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 9 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.435, "currentIXG": 0.04833333333333333, "priorTOI": 12.015384615384615, "priorPPTOI": 0.10192307692307692, "deploymentChange": 2.7920227920227934, "ppTOIChange": 1.9591880341880343, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020526", "date": "20251216", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020177", "date": "20241102", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.051784787487817584, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.0393332328560448, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0393332328560448, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.038569724396787665, "goalProbability": 0.038569724396787665, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 9, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.7595518831722149, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.6170085342117084, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.46900269541779, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.368518518518519, "Current_PP_Share": 0.42562141491395794, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.224581261950287, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.1111111111111111, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0025049991305859, "Input_GP": 9, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1113.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2615.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.023685536704183, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 22.641509433962263, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.448076923076922, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.023936568643866153, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0939959783113964, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9653025595732424, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1264106739650674, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9999755302031111, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.6170085342117084, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 6.46900269541779, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020526", "date": "20251216", "team": "MIN", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 14.183333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2024020177", "date": "20241102", "team": "CBJ", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 17.083333333333332 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 22, "fitPct": 3.1331992770465433, "index": 103.13319927704654, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 87.27272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.8181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.6363636363636367, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.272727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": -1.1565813475585855, "index": 98.84341865244141, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 85.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.1331992770465433, "zonePPFit": -1.1565813475585855, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7264225030867422, "attemptProjection": 1.069493238199541, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 14.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 6679.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.368518518518519, "projectedAttempts": 1.5555555555555554, "onNet": 0.35721699276553764, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1113.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.224581261950287, "projectedAttempts": 0.8394646271510517, "onNet": 0.39816933638443935, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.48137814058701717, "ppAdjusted": 0.30546861894501326, "other": 0.1111111111111111 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8979578706431416, "baseline": 0.6153846153846154, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 26, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483460", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7849285685397311, "adjustedSOG": 0.7750529420124642, "reductionPct": 1.2581560823603843, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.48137814058701717, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4728501897937323, "afterRecentDefense": 0.48137814058701717, "afterRecentZones": 0.47990337422847396, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.47990337422847396, "adjusted": 0.4714015499537757, "playerFactor": 0.9822842998585573, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0939959783113964, "newChartFactor": 1.085402016078159, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.46666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8758961356880575, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0465532454298034, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.30546861894501326, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3052305914497314, "afterRecentDefense": 0.30033365497091247, "afterRecentZones": 0.3043348956369757, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2992189896871115, "adjusted": 0.2989858320328099, "playerFactor": 0.9992207792207792, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 0.9653025595732424, "newChartFactor": 0.9561766365857716, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.99375, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7750529420124642, "adjustedSOG": 0.7595518831722149, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7595518831722149, "adjustedSOG": 0.7595518831722149 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.038566458244283945, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.038138510434444314, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03783224136497736, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.041184570295402234 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05783807160904104, "modelSOG": 0.7595518831722149, "historyGames": 47, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 26, "2026": 9 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 31.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.03225806451612903, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.051784787487817584, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483491", "name": "Ivan Miroshnichenko", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 3, "currentSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "priorSOG": 0.9230769230769231, "currentTOI": 11.049999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 9.827777777777778, "ppShare": 0.20734126984126985, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 13, "currentTotalSOG": 1.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.1611111111111112, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.33 SOG/game in 3 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 3 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.434, "currentIXG": 0.14466666666666667, "priorTOI": 9.64102564102564, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 1.4089743589743584, "ppTOIChange": 1.1611111111111112, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.35 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13268587683158464, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 27.0, "goalExpected": 0.08700759437683836, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08700759437683836, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08332986593171662, "goalProbability": 0.08332986593171662, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 3, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.6557411870388832, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 17.22488038277512, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.827777777777778, "Current_PP_Share": 0.20734126984126985, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.1072764314058958, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0002790509671295, "Input_GP": 3, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 209.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1008.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0638861304203906, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0254210483441504, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0909312311744783, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 21.686746987951807, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 6.35 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": 0.8473682781383474, "index": 100.84736827813835, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.153846153846154, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 37.69230769230769, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 36.15384615384615, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.8473682781383474, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.3215003954438477, "attemptProjection": 0.6593764676669497, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 1769.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.827777777777778, "projectedAttempts": 0.9999999999999999, "onNet": 0.47059785103078844, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 209.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.1072764314058958, "projectedAttempts": 0.31787840136054424, "onNet": 0.5564502929719467, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.247334054114734, "ppAdjusted": 0.2431043774406647, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.4904384315553987, "baseline": 0.9230769230769231, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 13, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483491", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.6634938281640084, "adjustedSOG": 0.6557411870388832, "reductionPct": 1.1684571575560798, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.247334054114734, "afterPlayerForm": 0.247334054114734, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2344129855728586, "afterRecentZones": 0.247334054114734, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2344129855728586, "adjusted": 0.2344129855728586, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9477586352266659, "oldChartFactor": 1.0254210483441504, "newChartFactor": 1.0196911830267907, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 29.483333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7529604082771819, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2431043774406647, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2431043774406647, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2431043774406647, "afterRecentZones": 0.2431043774406647, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2431043774406647, "adjusted": 0.2431043774406647, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.4833333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6557411870388832, "adjustedSOG": 0.6557411870388832, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.6557411870388832, "adjustedSOG": 0.6557411870388832 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 4.0, "goalHistoryShots": 27.0, "goalExpected": 0.04062110284827692, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.04206107636763704, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.039807124622020996, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.13816573003183064 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285110635761125, "modelSOG": 0.6557411870388832, "historyGames": 34, "seasonGames": { "2024": 18, "2025": 13, "2026": 3 }, "historyGoals": 4.0, "historyShots": 27.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14814814814814814, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13268587683158464, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483495", "name": "Simon Nemec", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.5454545454545454, "priorSOG": 1.4852941176470589, "currentTOI": 21.33939393939394, "currentFiveTOI": 18.674242424242422, "ppShare": 0.2973883740522325, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 1", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 68, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.0696969696969698, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.55 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.138, "currentIXG": 0.19436363636363635, "priorTOI": 19.66862745098039, "priorPPTOI": 1.2083333333333335, "deploymentChange": 1.6707664884135482, "ppTOIChange": -0.13863636363636367, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020786", "date": "20260120", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020078", "date": "20251018", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021042", "date": "20250313", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 0.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07693171020044744, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 144.0, "goalExpected": 0.11345345541956953, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12020620554517529, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10725425207955319, "goalProbability": 0.11326243234006805, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6008180260514862, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.4747294077300999, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.9655172413793105, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 18.674242424242422, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2973883740522325, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.04743039068018, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.01231993739639, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 706.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9516465193830763, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.223123732251521, "Prior_5v5_Min": 17.639705882352942, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3115468866273281, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0471380471380471, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0063468340040684, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0537840585025766, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.669929125885926, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020786", "date": "20260120", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 16.333333333333332 }, { "gameId": "2025020078", "date": "20251018", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.85 }, { "gameId": "2024021042", "date": "20250313", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 9.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kevin Bahl", "Simon Nemec" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 29, "priorAttempts": 129, "fitPct": 0.21156113346894756, "index": 100.21156113346895, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 46.63458968190323, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 77 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.547981823041967, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.826249665864742, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.688318631381984, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.648757016840419, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 13.654103180967653, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 4 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.21156113346894756, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6285753631403457, "attemptProjection": 1.667971707110173, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 51.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 12325.0, "expectedMinutes": 18.674242424242422, "projectedAttempts": 4.636363636363636, "onNet": 0.3649691835345981, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 706.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.04743039068018, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6482735351252593, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6482735351252593, "baseline": 1.4852941176470589, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 68, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483495", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.583081768133979, "adjustedSOG": 1.504825926255204, "reductionPct": 4.94325962524459, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6482735351252593, "afterPlayerForm": 1.5666185676210576, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6103899715342727, "afterRecentZones": 1.6345276766052037, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5969600448630636, "adjusted": 1.5178471319939675, "playerFactor": 0.9504603054261886, "defenseFactor": 0.9770162155833513, "oldChartFactor": 1.0063468340040684, "newChartFactor": 0.9893588560260009, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 93.88333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7293330966329369, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8945910632623657, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 7.816666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.504825926255204, "adjustedSOG": 1.4747294077300999, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 71, "beforeSOG": 1.4747294077300999, "adjustedSOG": 1.4747294077300999 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 143.0, "goalExpected": 0.1284482414787025, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1284482414787025, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12054091925801395, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05771337288909174, "modelSOG": 1.4747294077300999, "historyGames": 106, "seasonGames": { "2024": 27, "2025": 68, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 144.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09027777777777778, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07693171020044744, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 52.86602274537057, "btb": { "id": "8483495", "name": "Simon Nemec", "score": 52.86602274537057, "components": { "Goal model": 32.857142857142854, "SOG model": 50.0, "Unit attack": 82.6086956521739, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 16.666666666666668, "Shot quality": 65.71428571428571, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 55.07692307692308, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8134853517695593, "unitPlayers": [ "Kevin Bahl", "Simon Nemec" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 3, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 54 } }, { "id": "8483524", "name": "Shane Wright", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.5833333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.3108108108108107, "currentTOI": 13.763888888888888, "currentFiveTOI": 11.709722222222224, "ppShare": 0.3662514827995255, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 74, "currentTotalSOG": 19.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.7152777777777777, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.58 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.069, "currentIXG": 0.25575, "priorTOI": 13.801576576576577, "priorPPTOI": 1.555855855855856, "deploymentChange": -0.03768768768768993, "ppTOIChange": 0.15942192192192173, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.15258982366125975, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 207.0, "goalExpected": 0.23537007544063923, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2320001740514373, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2097216670968308, "goalProbability": 0.20705401470671678, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2667652390114017, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.5425017854607832, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.97793856007591, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.744939271255062, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.709722222222224, "Current_PP_Share": 0.3662514827995255, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.924346332542507, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 0.9659555003468241, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1235.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.2409672723147605, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.253618992472496, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.912387387387387, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3737445101804959, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9106786427145709, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1711341812484586, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1876671576002007, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0665268866159865, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.129216518864538, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.055858882822344, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.6511156186612577, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 3.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.066666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020869", "date": "20250206", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 13.716666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024020161", "date": "20241031", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.15 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kaapo Kakko", "Berkly Catton", "Shane Wright" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 22, "priorAttempts": 122, "fitPct": 5.704472708281955, "index": 105.70447270828195, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.956780923994039, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.998509687034275, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 28 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.354694485842025, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.0059612518628915, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.973174366616989, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.710879284649776, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 25, "fitPct": 6.2555719200066875, "index": 106.25557192000669, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 1.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 44.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 14.400000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.400000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.6, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.704472708281955, "zonePPFit": 6.2555719200066875, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.7276611194138283, "attemptProjection": 1.6922599019608398, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 27.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 8431.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.709722222222224, "projectedAttempts": 2.25, "onNet": 0.5078212130744374, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1235.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.924346332542507, "projectedAttempts": 0.5609430604982207, "onNet": 0.5088460086808831, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.2384316708965737, "ppAdjusted": 0.3048621731240934, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.709960510687334, "baseline": 1.3108108108108107, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 74, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483524", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.5503006307367246, "adjustedSOG": 1.5425017854607832, "reductionPct": 0.5030537381794931, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.2384316708965737, "afterPlayerForm": 1.2263267592319205, "afterRecentDefense": 1.2375296907978706, "afterRecentZones": 1.2384316708965737, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.2375296907978703, "adjusted": 1.2254335954366715, "playerFactor": 0.990225611998529, "defenseFactor": 0.9992716755232445, "oldChartFactor": 1.1711341812484586, "newChartFactor": 1.1711341812484586, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.81666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9323955188392334, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9965341609848044, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.3048621731240934, "afterPlayerForm": 0.3048621731240934, "afterRecentDefense": 0.3048621731240934, "afterRecentZones": 0.3048621731240934, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.3048621731240934, "adjusted": 0.3048621731240934, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1876671576002007, "newChartFactor": 1.1876671576002007, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.033333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0257475083056478, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.5425017854607832, "adjustedSOG": 1.5425017854607832, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 63, "beforeSOG": 1.5425017854607832, "adjustedSOG": 1.5425017854607832 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 34.0, "goalHistoryShots": 205.0, "goalExpected": 0.2304941886421566, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21886214404834192, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20585894997335802, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.9291418440547761 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12845075864006744, "modelSOG": 1.5425017854607832, "historyGames": 165, "seasonGames": { "2024": 79, "2025": 74, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 34.0, "historyShots": 207.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1642512077294686, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.15258982366125975, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 59.7360252811484, "btb": { "id": "8483524", "name": "Shane Wright", "score": 59.7360252811484, "components": { "Goal model": 73.57142857142857, "SOG model": 55.714285714285715, "Unit attack": 76.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 25.0, "Shot quality": 77.14285714285714, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 62.457142857142856, "Goalie H2H": 50.43319653442772 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8600030915226355, "unitPlayers": [ "Kaapo Kakko", "Berkly Catton", "Shane Wright" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 36 } }, { "id": "8483546", "name": "Marshall Rifai", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 14.15, "currentFiveTOI": 12.708333333333334, "ppShare": 0.014423076923076924, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.075, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.07, "currentIXG": 0.035, "priorTOI": 9.666666666666666, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 4.483333333333334, "ppTOIChange": 0.075, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06582643971940708, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.06157511488873308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06157511488873308, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.05971768611467524, "goalProbability": 0.05971768611467524, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9354161511879456, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.721311475409836, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.708333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014423076923076924, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.05973986950549451, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0064482949600444, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 624.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1212121212121213, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.25, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.721311475409836, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": 14.23884796075889, "index": 114.23884796075889, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 14.23884796075889, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 0.7006743310163712, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1525.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.708333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.5000000000000002, "onNet": 0.41248844409423413, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 9.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.05973986950549451, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9253371655081856, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9253371655081856, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 1, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483546", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9552022993049113, "adjustedSOG": 0.9545062767223935, "reductionPct": 0.07286651037421432, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9253371655081856, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9253371655081856, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9241771278706559, "afterRecentZones": 0.9253371655081856, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9241771278706559, "adjusted": 0.9241771278706559, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9987463622117753, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 25.416666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9941323514003023, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9545062767223935, "adjustedSOG": 0.9354161511879456, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.9354161511879456, "adjustedSOG": 0.9354161511879456 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 3.0, "goalExpected": 0.06082883596826125, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.060132239890326004, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.059015711342621964, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06557143223747883 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057801232910989285, "modelSOG": 0.9354161511879456, "historyGames": 3, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 3.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06582643971940708, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483565", "name": "Nick Blankenburg", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "D", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.180327868852459, "currentTOI": 13.08611111111111, "currentFiveTOI": 12.225, "ppShare": 0.1166883963494133, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 61, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.49722222222222223, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5409999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.09016666666666666, "priorTOI": 16.796994535519126, "priorPPTOI": 1.3508196721311476, "deploymentChange": -3.7108834244080153, "ppTOIChange": -0.8535974499089254, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021312", "date": "20260416", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2025021040", "date": "20260312", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020638", "date": "20260101", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.216666666666665 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 9.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07165537772160704, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.08496395244874307, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.08496395244874307, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08145460488311404, "goalProbability": 0.08145460488311404, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.1857302989713072, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.9079754601226995, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.225, "Current_PP_Share": 0.1166883963494133, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.48331917023654314, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0064482949600444, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 179.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1534.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.6733223960625825, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.281553398058253, "Prior_5v5_Min": 13.656284153005464, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.2465939137541464, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1212121212121213, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1600606275650887, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1491407924083052, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.766150560597971, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021312", "date": "20260416", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 15.4 }, { "gameId": "2025021040", "date": "20260312", "team": "COL", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020638", "date": "20260101", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 18.216666666666665 }, { "gameId": "2024020993", "date": "20250306", "team": "NSH", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 20.0 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 93, "fitPct": 5.335354252169623, "index": 105.33535425216962, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 43.655913978494624, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 55 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.1505376344086, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.731182795698926, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.8602150537634409, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 32.74193548387097, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.8602150537634409, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 17, "fitPct": 4.971359746943506, "index": 104.9713597469435, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 88.23529411764706, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 7.058823529411766, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.3529411764705883, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.335354252169623, "zonePPFit": 4.971359746943506, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.15, "attemptProjection": 1.3123200779106778, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 17.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 4401.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.225, "projectedAttempts": 2.833333333333333, "onNet": 0.38599832144767776, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 179.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.48331917023654314, "projectedAttempts": 0.16200642577761223, "onNet": 0.40579710144927533, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1942503399446227, "ppAdjusted": 0.03690969901071613, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.231160038955339, "baseline": 1.180327868852459, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 61, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8483565", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020638", "date": "20260101", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.210827170914187, "adjustedSOG": 1.2099288765013338, "reductionPct": 0.07418849150657714, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1942503399446227, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1942503399446227, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1927531825898678, "afterRecentZones": 1.1942503399446227, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.1927531825898678, "adjusted": 1.1927531825898678, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9987463622117753, "oldChartFactor": 1.1600606275650887, "newChartFactor": 1.1600606275650887, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 58.06666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1145910717903693, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.9941323514003023, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.03690969901071613, "afterPlayerForm": 0.03690969901071613, "afterRecentDefense": 0.03690969901071613, "afterRecentZones": 0.03690969901071613, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.03690969901071613, "adjusted": 0.03690969901071613, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1491407924083052, "newChartFactor": 1.1486970727570556, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.0833333333333335, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.432, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2099288765013338, "adjustedSOG": 1.1857302989713072, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.1857302989713072, "adjustedSOG": 1.1857302989713072 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 162.0, "goalExpected": 0.08419158270631158, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.0832274425024948, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.08074487416089121, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.08867182160383069 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05773708963061047, "modelSOG": 1.1857302989713072, "historyGames": 127, "seasonGames": { "2024": 60, "2025": 61, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 162.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08024691358024691, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07165537772160704, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483570", "name": "Ben Meyers", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.1730769230769231, "currentTOI": 12.805000000000001, "currentFiveTOI": 10.878333333333334, "ppShare": 0.014770057066129574, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 52, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.07333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.048, "currentIXG": 0.1048, "priorTOI": 11.938141025641025, "priorPPTOI": 0.038141025641025644, "deploymentChange": 0.8668589743589763, "ppTOIChange": 0.03519230769230769, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.928571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11984422712210605, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 74.0, "goalExpected": 0.11884260719903753, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11714108305096281, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11205245368438811, "goalProbability": 0.11054030337680595, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.1512150307582158, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9916423181397966, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 4.963995710127164, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.878333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.014770057066129574, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.07760434150162246, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 0.9820855078281815, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 44.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2979.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.5427882054335225, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.22852564102564, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.009162159137258494, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9819596160211851, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1865619068224746, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.5320783711102575, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Ben Meyers", "Frederick Gaudreau", "Ryan Winterton" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 86, "fitPct": 6.2187302274158185, "index": 106.21873022741582, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.58139534883721, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.976744186046513, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.883720930232556, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.976744186046513, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.186046511627907, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.3953488372093026, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 6.2187302274158185, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.035, "attemptProjection": 0.7086722460777493, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 6527.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.878333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 1.2000000000000002, "onNet": 0.5474465500747062, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 44.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.07760434150162246, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8718361230388746, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8718361230388746, "baseline": 1.1730769230769231, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 52, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483570", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9923324430540941, "adjustedSOG": 0.9916423181397966, "reductionPct": 0.06954573733107816, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8718361230388746, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8718361230388746, "afterRecentDefense": 0.8718361230388746, "afterRecentZones": 0.8706859148483791, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.8706859148483791, "adjusted": 0.8706859148483791, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1865619068224746, "newChartFactor": 1.1839246252306734, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1016830632716048, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.3517003152458247, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.9916423181397966, "adjustedSOG": 0.9916423181397966, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 112, "beforeSOG": 0.9916423181397966, "adjustedSOG": 0.9916423181397966 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 73.0, "goalExpected": 0.1090723015534064, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1035678943356221, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10333441516015725, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.4949221285656516 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852895519246454, "modelSOG": 0.9916423181397966, "historyGames": 70, "seasonGames": { "2024": 8, "2025": 52, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 8.0, "historyShots": 74.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10810810810810811, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11984422712210605, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 36.76461038961039, "btb": { "id": "8483570", "name": "Ben Meyers", "score": 36.76461038961039, "components": { "Goal model": 35.0, "SOG model": 20.714285714285715, "Unit attack": 30.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 32.857142857142854, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2277187263032197, "unitPlayers": [ "Ben Meyers", "Frederick Gaudreau", "Ryan Winterton" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 106 } }, { "id": "8483573", "name": "Ethen Frank", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "L", "currentGP": 2, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 1.467741935483871, "currentTOI": 9.716666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 8.725, "ppShare": 0.25252525252525254, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 62, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.8333333333333334, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 2 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 2 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.303, "currentIXG": 0.1515, "priorTOI": 12.236827956989247, "priorPPTOI": 1.4166666666666665, "deploymentChange": -2.52016129032258, "ppTOIChange": -0.5833333333333331, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.642857142857143, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13356765200087214, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.1677218095804835, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.1677218095804835, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15441096326346856, "goalProbability": 0.15441096326346856, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 2, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.2557068052629115, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.876790830945558, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.725, "Current_PP_Share": 0.25252525252525254, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.3485750360750361, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0002790509671295, "Input_GP": 2, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 100.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 396.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.730161938205796, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.514231499051234, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.640591397849462, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3237433463078394, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0638861304203906, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0105326116469635, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0750916298686994, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.876790830945558, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 3, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 4.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 17.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.416666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 11.0 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 106, "fitPct": 0.3510870548987839, "index": 100.35108705489878, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.018867924528302, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 9.811320754716983, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 31.60377358490566, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 44 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 3.3962264150943398, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 51.037735849056595, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.1320754716981134, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.3510870548987839, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.0750916298686992, "attemptProjection": 1.2872593744993959, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1047.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.725, "projectedAttempts": 2.5000000000000004, "onNet": 0.48984883826603254, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 100.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.3485750360750361, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1811755021840475, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.1811755021840475, "baseline": 1.467741935483871, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 62, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483573", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.295802075503977, "adjustedSOG": 1.2557068052629115, "reductionPct": 3.094243403296848, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1811755021840475, "afterPlayerForm": 1.1811755021840475, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1194692819131247, "afterRecentZones": 1.1757740951795856, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.114350051782272, "adjusted": 1.114350051782272, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9477586352266659, "oldChartFactor": 1.0105326116469635, "newChartFactor": 1.0003785042664535, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7529604082771819, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.6666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.2557068052629115, "adjustedSOG": 1.2557068052629115, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 1.2557068052629115, "adjustedSOG": 1.2557068052629115 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 116.0, "goalExpected": 0.13933594456556614, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14427525089653534, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1300642708177866, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.42862847038189766 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850612832188385, "modelSOG": 1.2557068052629115, "historyGames": 88, "seasonGames": { "2024": 24, "2025": 62, "2026": 2 }, "historyGoals": 16.0, "historyShots": 116.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13793103448275862, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13356765200087214, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8483609", "name": "Adam Klapka", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "R", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.3636363636363635, "priorSOG": 1.0126582278481013, "currentTOI": 11.11969696969697, "currentFiveTOI": 10.483333333333333, "ppShare": 0.14490311710193765, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 79, "currentTotalSOG": 15.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.5212121212121212, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.36 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.561, "currentIXG": 0.1419090909090909, "priorTOI": 10.634388185654009, "priorPPTOI": 0.4080168776371308, "deploymentChange": 0.4853087840429602, "ppTOIChange": 0.11319524357499045, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.266666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 0.8, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.166666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11236385591678856, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 139.0, "goalExpected": 0.13419983617666223, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14218741096887005, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.12558469266932887, "goalProbability": 0.1325413300186532, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.6956637349324335, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.194332777935677, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.284289637230814, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.465116279069768, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.483333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.14490311710193765, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.5103626832775948, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 0.9926130288982566, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 344.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.910583480676939, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 1.861427094105481, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.022784810126582, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.10834060326918254, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9685942799715255, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9686445618359011, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9382235819197784, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.05041675137223, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 0.75 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 9.883333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020598", "date": "20251227", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 10.816666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020585", "date": "20251223", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 12.45 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.516666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2024021167", "date": "20250329", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 9.266666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brennan Othmann", "Jonathan Castagna", "Adam Klapka" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 131, "fitPct": -1.045181272136631, "index": 98.95481872786337, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.225484439224896, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.955372871403405, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 27.75689958896066, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 38 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.7504403992953605, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.251321197886085, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 24 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.060481503229594, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": 12.944539024775281, "index": 112.94453902477528, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.565263623029622, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5309649899459572, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 86.66666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.382574193772484, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.999220132336035, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5973104262934754, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.24012500494106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.045181272136631, "zonePPFit": 12.944539024775281, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.296471999770969, "attemptProjection": 1.4691512046726716, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 34.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 6919.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.483333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 3.090909090909091, "onNet": 0.4655027786515676, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 344.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.5103626832775948, "projectedAttempts": 0.08901674708330143, "onNet": 0.5195171860025384, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.3061938581361545, "ppAdjusted": 0.07661774408566574, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3828116022218202, "baseline": 1.0126582278481013, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 79, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483609", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2347502524723326, "adjustedSOG": 1.2187069162608948, "reductionPct": 1.2993183179606071, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.3061938581361545, "afterPlayerForm": 1.281432338890546, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3061938581361545, "afterRecentZones": 1.3061938581361545, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3061938581361545, "adjusted": 1.281432338890546, "playerFactor": 0.9810429982568274, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9686445618359011, "newChartFactor": 0.9686445618359011, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.733333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8675395858708892, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.062665747875295, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.07661774408566574, "afterPlayerForm": 0.07661774408566574, "afterRecentDefense": 0.07464036964554455, "afterRecentZones": 0.07661774408566574, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.07464036964554455, "adjusted": 0.07464036964554455, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.733333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.2187069162608948, "adjustedSOG": 1.194332777935677, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 92, "beforeSOG": 1.194332777935677, "adjustedSOG": 1.194332777935677 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 14.0, "goalHistoryShots": 139.0, "goalExpected": 0.15382536211123654, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15382536211123654, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14257825373922695, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854961564112463, "modelSOG": 1.194332777935677, "historyGames": 121, "seasonGames": { "2024": 31, "2025": 79, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 14.0, "historyShots": 139.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10071942446043165, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11236385591678856, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 41.96123376623377, "btb": { "id": "8483609", "name": "Adam Klapka", "score": 41.96123376623377, "components": { "Goal model": 42.142857142857146, "SOG model": 35.0, "Unit attack": 13.333333333333334, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 16.666666666666668, "Shot quality": 44.285714285714285, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 35.46666666666667, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9274585057023352, "unitPlayers": [ "Brennan Othmann", "Jonathan Castagna", "Adam Klapka" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 91 } }, { "id": "8483695", "name": "Amadeus Lombardi", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "position": "L", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 1.7, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 11.138333333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 10.571666666666667, "ppShare": 0.060643951234760865, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:44:09.728Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 17.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.32333333333333336, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.70 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.967, "currentIXG": 0.1967, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "COL", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 342.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.5, "mostAllowedRank": 11, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.0407429598562, "pkSogAllowed60": 49.061175045427014, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 41.916666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "C": 133.0, "D": 90.0, "L": 50.0, "R": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.083333333333334, "L": 4.166666666666667, "R": 5.75, "D": 7.5 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 28.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.166666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.10985885650588749, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 17.0, "goalExpected": 0.16543571691412173, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16840224301047324, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.15247565706603794, "goalProbability": 0.15498613460700034, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.2510477540962397, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261012", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.5058933087042992, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 9.64843134163645, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.571666666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.060643951234760865, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.747222222222222, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.28789031294501755, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0508903962368106, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Position_Factor": 0.9708404802744426, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 194.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3199.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9014173512683941, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0447884819271172, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9417904660144684, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0126508465595943, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 10.426148117501034, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/new-jersey-devils/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 26, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 1.4929493975705697, "index": 101.49294939757057, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.8461538461538463, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.1051521166602498, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.549927433215544, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 38.46153846153847, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.360395044719695, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 23.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.581112658489559, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.538461538461538, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.973490140444497, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.862260218260161, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.4929493975705697, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6010437922245961, "attemptProjection": 1.7097812076722192, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 32.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 6343.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.571666666666667, "projectedAttempts": 3.2000000000000006, "onNet": 0.5114839768857534, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0556957769919488, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9895089884033382 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 194.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.28789031294501755, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9892366925570955, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9726447155830408 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.6554124999484077, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6554124999484077, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 2, "availableGames": 2, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "savePct": 0.9850746268656716, "gaa": 0.5002084201750729, "gsax": 4.491, "log": [ { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020236", "date": "20241110", "goalieTeam": "SJS", "opponent": "NJD", "shotsAgainst": 44.0, "goalsAgainst": 0.0, "seconds": 3597.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.773 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8478406", "goalieName": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483695", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6554124999484077, "adjustedSOG": 1.5366258252084686, "reductionPct": 7.175654088853456, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.6554124999484077, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6554124999484077, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5366258252084686, "afterRecentZones": 1.6554124999484077, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5366258252084686, "adjusted": 1.5366258252084686, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9282434591114656, "oldChartFactor": 1.0447884819271172, "newChartFactor": 1.0447884819271172, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0028924851190477, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.6600723181175374, "defenseRecentMinutes": 237.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 1.5833333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2761352657004832, "defenseRecentMinutes": 26.833333333333332, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5366258252084686, "adjustedSOG": 1.5058933087042992, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 66, "beforeSOG": 1.5058933087042992, "adjustedSOG": 1.5058933087042992 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 16.0, "goalExpected": 0.1607993686148111, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.15961784855900019, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14853711585076665, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10066150252192874 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853486211188836, "modelSOG": 1.5058933087042992, "historyGames": 10, "seasonGames": { "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 17.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.10985885650588749, "goalieFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 42.76352813852814, "btb": { "id": "8483695", "name": "Amadeus Lombardi", "score": 42.76352813852814, "components": { "Goal model": 52.857142857142854, "SOG model": 53.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 43.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 67.14285714285714, "Goalie": 9.659090909090908, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.380624334248085, "unitPlayers": [ "Amadeus Lombardi", "Cody Glass", "Connor Brown" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 86 } }, { "id": "8483731", "name": "Alex Bump", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 7, "currentSOG": 2.2857142857142856, "priorSOG": 1.3529411764705883, "currentTOI": 12.842857142857143, "currentFiveTOI": 11.316666666666666, "ppShare": 0.27101038715769593, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 17, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.3666666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.29 SOG/game in 7 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 7 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.248, "currentIXG": 0.1782857142857143, "priorTOI": 12.641176470588235, "priorPPTOI": 0.8950980392156863, "deploymentChange": 0.20168067226890862, "ppTOIChange": 0.4715686274509804, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.233333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 1.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12842864517392188, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 39.0, "goalExpected": 0.23790627708069814, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23790627708069814, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21172343278713, "goalProbability": 0.21172343278713, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 7, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.8524393585131915, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 10.603829160530191, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.543554006968641, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.316666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.27101038715769593, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.4164809568775574, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9933397555142174, "Input_GP": 7, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 574.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2118.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.127659574468085, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.886089813800657, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.519607843137255, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.21021319514172948, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9915590863952334, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0192126980148304, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1622396848199097, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0106096116860062, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.023019898556379, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 12.233333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Bump", "Denver Barkey", "Tyson Foerster" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 17, "priorAttempts": 31, "fitPct": 0.6404232671610117, "index": 100.64042326716101, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.330170777988613, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 23.14990512333966, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.730550284629985, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 26.679316888045545, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.2903225806451613, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.819734345351043, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": 5.407989493996993, "index": 105.407989493997, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 43.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.6404232671610117, "zonePPFit": 5.407989493996993, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.3617669098687073, "attemptProjection": 2.145621348148634, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 25.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 4753.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.316666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 3.571428571428571, "onNet": 0.5192224813950904, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 574.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.4164809568775574, "projectedAttempts": 0.2961284230406043, "onNet": 0.5649800950301785, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.9905451654832573, "ppAdjusted": 0.2631489635254134, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2536941290086707, "baseline": 1.3529411764705883, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 17, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483731", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.8933929479934377, "adjustedSOG": 1.8902442433808078, "reductionPct": 0.16629958487839325, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.9905451654832573, "afterPlayerForm": 1.9905451654832573, "afterRecentDefense": 1.9905451654832573, "afterRecentZones": 1.9902085564256526, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.9902085564256526, "adjusted": 1.9902085564256526, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0192126980148304, "newChartFactor": 1.0188732234820232, "playerRecentAttempts": 23.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.215668612732833, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1686511240632804, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2631489635254134, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2631489635254134, "afterRecentDefense": 0.25872539801419403, "afterRecentZones": 0.26265295918090636, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2582377315619682, "adjusted": 0.2582377315619682, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1.1622396848199097, "newChartFactor": 1.1588541035583866, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.2, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.5430107526881722, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8902442433808078, "adjustedSOG": 1.8524393585131915, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 45, "beforeSOG": 1.8524393585131915, "adjustedSOG": 1.8524393585131915 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 34.0, "goalExpected": 0.20599588083947185, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2037100736885312, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18616357140109058, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.18624008618843835 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851581679175142, "modelSOG": 1.8524393585131915, "historyGames": 24, "seasonGames": { "2025": 17, "2026": 7 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 39.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1282051282051282, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12842864517392188, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 50.805064935064934, "btb": { "id": "8483731", "name": "Alex Bump", "score": 50.805064935064934, "components": { "Goal model": 75.0, "SOG model": 68.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 4.166666666666667, "Shot quality": 61.42857142857143, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.89090909090909, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2365843479007204, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Bump", "Denver Barkey", "Tyson Foerster" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 1, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 60 } }, { "id": "8483760", "name": "Hunter McDonald", "position": "D", "priorGP": 1, "priorSOG": 0, "priorTOI": 15.183333333333334, "priorPPTOI": 0, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.694610778443114, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.133333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0025049991305859, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1241.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "inputs": null, "team": "PHI", "isHome": false, "opponent": "WSH", "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "currentGP": 4, "currentTotalSOG": 2.0, "currentSOG": 0.5, "currentTOI": 11.633333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.133333333333333, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "currentIXG": 0.01975, "currentIXGTotal": 0.079, "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "ppShare": 0.0, "trial": 0.3333131857135898, "deploymentChange": -3.5500000000000007, "ppTOIChange": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "goalShootingPct": 0.056688887283224104, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 2.0, "goalExpected": 0.018895153614930035, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.018895153614930035, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.018717759254832288, "goalProbability": 0.018717759254832288, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "h2hFullLog": [], "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "recentlyDressed": true, "boardEligible": true, "projected": true, "status": "Projected lineup", "line": "Defense pair 3", "lineMates": [ "Hunter McDonald", "Oliver Bonk" ], "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 3 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5148148148148148, "attemptProjection": 0.6189035039388919, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 2672.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.133333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.39039084887490016, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5668591593768534, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.5668591593768534, "baseline": 0, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 1, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483760", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.34011549562611204, "adjustedSOG": 0.34011549562611204, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5668591593768534, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5668591593768534, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5668591593768534, "afterRecentZones": 0.5668591593768534, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5668591593768534, "adjusted": 0.5668591593768534, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 44.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0465532454298034, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.34011549562611204, "adjustedSOG": 0.3333131857135898, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 141, "beforeSOG": 0.3333131857135898, "adjustedSOG": 0.3333131857135898 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 1.0, "goalExpected": 0.012836109529718386, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.01269367526921901, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.01275407803930968, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.014062765768596032 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05782266502888859, "modelSOG": 0.3333131857135898, "historyGames": 5, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 2.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.056688887283224104, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 27.745341614906835, "btb": { "id": "8483760", "name": "Hunter McDonald", "score": 27.745341614906835, "components": { "Goal model": 0.7142857142857143, "SOG model": 0.0, "Unit attack": 21.73913043478261, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 29.285714285714285, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.048243425572345, "unitPlayers": [ "Hunter McDonald", "Oliver Bonk" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 137 } }, { "id": "8483787", "name": "Cole Knuble", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 2.25, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 11.820833333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 11.1125, "ppShare": 0.007252215954875101, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0375, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.25 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.67, "currentIXG": 0.1675, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13624616356532585, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 9.0, "goalExpected": 0.27609233139155737, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27609233139155737, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24125712825821435, "goalProbability": 0.24125712825821435, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.026422793616347, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 12.148481439820022, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.1125, "Current_PP_Share": 0.007252215954875101, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.03790491539081386, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0484552293030407, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 9.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1241.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0917005141996672, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.562737642585551, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Cole Knuble" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 3.0566838066555704, "index": 103.05668380665557, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.0566838066555704, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.5875, "attemptProjection": 1.859335184587112, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2667.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.1125, "projectedAttempts": 3.2500000000000004, "onNet": 0.5413052921703441, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 9.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.03790491539081386, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5099075297225891, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 2.223417592293556, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.223417592293556, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8483787", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.223417592293556, "adjustedSOG": 2.223417592293556, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 2.223417592293556, "afterPlayerForm": 2.223417592293556, "afterRecentDefense": 2.223417592293556, "afterRecentZones": 2.223417592293556, "afterDefenseAndZones": 2.223417592293556, "adjusted": 2.223417592293556, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0917005141996672, "newChartFactor": 1.0917005141996672, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 44.45, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0410397944241867, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.15, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.223417592293556, "adjustedSOG": 2.1789492404476847, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 29, "beforeSOG": 2.1789492404476847, "adjustedSOG": 2.026422793616347 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.3287650864733019, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.32511698641140835, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28018790951582045, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.2630742219642712 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850831828620515, "modelSOG": 2.026422793616347, "historyGames": 4, "seasonGames": { "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 9.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2222222222222222, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13624616356532585, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 51.214285714285715, "btb": { "id": "8483787", "name": "Cole Knuble", "score": 51.214285714285715, "components": { "Goal model": 85.0, "SOG model": 72.85714285714286, "Unit attack": 20.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 60.714285714285715, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.190168083364521, "unitPlayers": [ "Trevor Zegras", "Christian Dvorak", "Cole Knuble" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 58 } }, { "id": "8484142", "name": "Denver Barkey", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "C", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 0.6363636363636364, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 14.57878787878788, "currentFiveTOI": 11.110606060606061, "ppShare": 0.5415394013439218, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 43, "currentTotalSOG": 7.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.6863636363636365, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.64 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.917, "currentIXG": 0.08336363636363636, "priorTOI": 13.407364341085271, "priorPPTOI": 1.526356589147287, "deploymentChange": 1.1714235377026085, "ppTOIChange": 1.1600070472163495, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.366666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.7, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11901880836511902, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.09877096059873777, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09877096059873777, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09404981744989449, "goalProbability": 0.09404981744989449, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.8298769073181604, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 1.9637256238919951, "Current_PP_SOG60": 4.060913705583756, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.110606060606061, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5415394013439218, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.8304459376908975, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9933397555142174, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1773.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3274.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.9534109816971714, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.227526663280853, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.647286821705427, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.3584638569998783, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9090689562650927, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.000055343412354, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1544758481398714, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.9091192672431975, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 1.92102454642476, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 13.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.6 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.366666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.1 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Bump", "Denver Barkey", "Tyson Foerster" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 47, "fitPct": 0.001844780411801139, "index": 100.0018447804118, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 12.826747720364743, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.33738601823708, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.592705167173253, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.118541033434646, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.422492401215806, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.702127659574468, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": 5.149194937995716, "index": 105.14919493799572, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.001844780411801139, "zonePPFit": 5.149194937995716, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6418033521357503, "attemptProjection": 0.8891130954249843, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 7333.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.110606060606061, "projectedAttempts": 0.9090909090909092, "onNet": 0.4823614350771965, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 1773.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.8304459376908975, "projectedAttempts": 0.5747098350641416, "onNet": 0.5246243739565943, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.39702424664372166, "ppAdjusted": 0.27752488622755467, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7654582237803673, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 43, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484142", "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "shootingPct": 0.25, "gamesWithAttempts": 3, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 3 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8592749342682204, "adjustedSOG": 0.8468131707328168, "reductionPct": 1.4502649895189124, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.39702424664372166, "afterPlayerForm": 0.39702424664372166, "afterRecentDefense": 0.380919867240495, "afterRecentZones": 0.3970242466437217, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.380919867240495, "adjusted": 0.380919867240495, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9594372899404346, "oldChartFactor": 1.000055343412354, "newChartFactor": 1.000055343412354, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1422118380062305, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8085007776538419, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.27752488622755467, "afterPlayerForm": 0.27752488622755467, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2728596597384421, "afterRecentZones": 0.27752488622755467, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.27285965973844206, "adjusted": 0.27285965973844206, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1.1544758481398714, "newChartFactor": 1.1544758481398714, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.016666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.7365328109696376, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.8468131707328168, "adjustedSOG": 0.8298769073181604, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 127, "beforeSOG": 0.8298769073181604, "adjustedSOG": 0.8298769073181604 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 50.0, "goalExpected": 0.10290887839718768, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10176696308714864, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0977908195173597, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.10308349271287431 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852821254767854, "modelSOG": 0.8298769073181604, "historyGames": 54, "seasonGames": { "2025": 43, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 50.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11901880836511902, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 46.1647619047619, "btb": { "id": "8484142", "name": "Denver Barkey", "score": 46.1647619047619, "components": { "Goal model": 28.571428571428573, "SOG model": 10.0, "Unit attack": 33.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 100.0, "Shot quality": 22.142857142857142, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 62.68571428571428, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.2365843479007204, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Bump", "Denver Barkey", "Tyson Foerster" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 4, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 73 } }, { "id": "8484148", "name": "Oliver Bonk", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "D", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 1.125, "priorSOG": 1, "currentTOI": 19.252083333333335, "currentFiveTOI": 16.9, "ppShare": 0.24804928131416837, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 1, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.2583333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.12 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.6689999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.08362499999999999, "priorTOI": 16.466666666666665, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": 2.78541666666667, "ppTOIChange": 1.2583333333333333, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.8, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06164585289579602, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.06928079200017431, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06928079200017431, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06693535379688365, "goalProbability": 0.06693535379688365, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.1238516257903695, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.5502958579881656, "Current_PP_SOG60": 5.960264900662252, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.9, "Current_PP_Share": 0.24804928131416837, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.2964709103353866, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0025049991305859, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 604.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2435.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.712041884816754, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.733333333333333, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0296296296296297, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0825475108975602, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.1146229927019324, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.6494940202391906, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.382899628252789, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Hunter McDonald", "Oliver Bonk" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 14, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": 2.7515836965853424, "index": 102.75158369658534, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 78.57142857142857, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 4.285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.285714285714286, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "Prior-season shot locations are unavailable in the saved files for this player and strength. The 60/40 zone comparison cannot be calculated; current sample: 1 attempts.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.7515836965853424, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.2480374836519696, "attemptProjection": 1.3131158351854102, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 24.0, "sog": 8.0, "seconds": 8112.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.9, "projectedAttempts": 2.9999999999999996, "onNet": 0.3765119937431677, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 604.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.2964709103353866, "projectedAttempts": 0.25757700205338807, "onNet": 0.41722408026755853, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.1542122507468173, "ppAdjusted": 0.12636440867187268, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.2805766594186898, "baseline": 1, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 1, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484148", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.1683459956512139, "adjustedSOG": 1.146787373255479, "reductionPct": 1.8452258556951318, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.1542122507468173, "afterPlayerForm": 1.129401579789526, "afterRecentDefense": 1.1542122507468173, "afterRecentZones": 1.150241252406558, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.150241252406558, "adjusted": 1.125515941081456, "playerFactor": 0.9785042387643712, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0825475108975602, "newChartFactor": 1.0748340608841067, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 83.51666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8768708840550788, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0465532454298034, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.12636440867187268, "afterPlayerForm": 0.12116650442427877, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12424020786728718, "afterRecentZones": 0.12636440867187268, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.12424020786728718, "adjusted": 0.11912968101100896, "playerFactor": 0.9588657573582197, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 8.216666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.6125760649087221, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.146787373255479, "adjustedSOG": 1.1238516257903695, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 101, "beforeSOG": 1.1238516257903695, "adjustedSOG": 1.1238516257903695 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 1.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.06682138175362048, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06607990677059794, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06463774081699251, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.06938049029499987 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05781043818537562, "modelSOG": 1.1238516257903695, "historyGames": 9, "seasonGames": { "2025": 1, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 1.0, "historyShots": 10.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06164585289579602, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 33.23343685300207, "btb": { "id": "8484148", "name": "Oliver Bonk", "score": 33.23343685300207, "components": { "Goal model": 19.285714285714285, "SOG model": 28.571428571428573, "Unit attack": 21.73913043478261, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 4.166666666666667, "Shot quality": 28.571428571428573, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.048243425572345, "unitPlayers": [ "Hunter McDonald", "Oliver Bonk" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 115 } }, { "id": "8484149", "name": "Gavin Brindley", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "C", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 1.1071428571428572, "currentTOI": 8.133333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 8.133333333333333, "ppShare": 0.0, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 56, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.0, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.22999999999999998, "currentIXG": 0.057499999999999996, "priorTOI": 9.551488095238096, "priorPPTOI": 0.8979166666666666, "deploymentChange": -1.4181547619047628, "ppTOIChange": -0.8979166666666666, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.666666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 3, "h2hSOG": 1.3333333333333333, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.333333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1142644545959463, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 65.0, "goalExpected": 0.09525487037367006, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09859974658145972, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09085880821795494, "goalProbability": 0.09389469280030802, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3035884582353071, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": null, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.8336351904929967, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.532786885245901, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0, "Current_5v5_Min": 8.133333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.0, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 0.9872883796894324, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 0.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1191.0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.879552162353343, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.8680461906722068, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.532786885245901, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.0 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.166666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 11.266666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 8.666666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 74, "fitPct": -4.398460310926438, "index": 95.60153968907356, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 2.7027027027027026, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.27027027027027, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 59.5945945945946, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 21.486486486486488, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.405405405405405, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.5405405405405406, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -4.398460310926438, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6374999999999998, "attemptProjection": 0.665093492119513, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 6.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1952.0, "expectedMinutes": 8.133333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.4999999999999998, "onNet": 0.5064072693383038, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 0.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.0, "projectedAttempts": 0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6512967460597564, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.6512967460597564, "baseline": 1.1071428571428572, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 56, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484149", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8336351904929967, "adjustedSOG": 0.8336351904929967, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6512967460597564, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6512967460597564, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6512967460597564, "afterRecentZones": 0.6512967460597564, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6512967460597564, "adjusted": 0.6512967460597564, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8680461906722068, "newChartFactor": 0.8619199239274953, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 32.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0090364822745925, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.0, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.8336351904929967, "adjustedSOG": 0.8336351904929967, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.8336351904929967, "adjustedSOG": 0.8336351904929967 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 65.0, "goalExpected": 0.10607525917061984, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10607525917061984, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10064303933004422, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285363500833114, "modelSOG": 0.8336351904929967, "historyGames": 60, "seasonGames": { "2025": 56, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 65.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.09230769230769231, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1142644545959463, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484154", "name": "Jonathan Castagna", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "C", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 12.80625, "currentFiveTOI": 11.345833333333333, "ppShare": 0.002074688796680498, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 6.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.008333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.752, "currentIXG": 0.094, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.833333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1212476125474369, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 6.0, "goalExpected": 0.09876026054148111, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.10463847164849434, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09404012367920767, "goalProbability": 0.09934992572872753, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5309802049519863, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.8145336511499734, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.966213734851267, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.345833333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.002074688796680498, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.007307253028207386, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 0.9775426619938402, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 4.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1928.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9085298924311536, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9276162601562578, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.85, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.827128520556815, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brennan Othmann", "Jonathan Castagna", "Adam Klapka" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 12, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -2.41279132812474, "index": 97.58720867187526, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 8.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 33.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.41279132812474, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.6375, "attemptProjection": 1.0639691834105238, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 19.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 5446.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.345833333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.375, "onNet": 0.45447546497021757, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 4.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.007307253028207386, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.8507345917052619, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8507345917052619, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484154", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.8507345917052619, "adjustedSOG": 0.831156786887728, "reductionPct": 2.301282328051457, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.8507345917052619, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8311567868877279, "afterRecentDefense": 0.850734591705262, "afterRecentZones": 0.850734591705262, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.850734591705262, "adjusted": 0.831156786887728, "playerFactor": 0.9769871767194853, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9276162601562578, "newChartFactor": 0.9276162601562578, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 61.9, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8489357480939829, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.384747837482286, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.06666666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.831156786887728, "adjustedSOG": 0.8145336511499734, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 129, "beforeSOG": 0.8145336511499734, "adjustedSOG": 0.8145336511499734 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 0.0, "goalHistoryShots": 5.0, "goalExpected": 0.11217745362252494, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11217745362252494, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10611437981603429, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285224693002831, "modelSOG": 0.8145336511499734, "historyGames": 8, "seasonGames": { "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 6.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.0, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1212476125474369, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 37.29599567099567, "btb": { "id": "8484154", "name": "Jonathan Castagna", "score": 37.29599567099567, "components": { "Goal model": 27.857142857142858, "SOG model": 8.571428571428571, "Unit attack": 13.333333333333334, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 34.285714285714285, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.9274585057023352, "unitPlayers": [ "Brennan Othmann", "Jonathan Castagna", "Adam Klapka" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 104 } }, { "id": "8484158", "name": "Easton Cowan", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 2.0714285714285716, "priorSOG": 1.4090909090909092, "currentTOI": 15.173809523809524, "currentFiveTOI": 13.166666666666668, "ppShare": 0.21246684350132625, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 29.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.9535714285714285, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.07 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.262, "currentIXG": 0.233, "priorTOI": 14.71111111111111, "priorPPTOI": 1.5065656565656567, "deploymentChange": 0.4626984126984137, "ppTOIChange": -0.5529942279942281, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.8 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1344613150435582, "goalHistoryGoals": 17.0, "goalHistoryShots": 122.0, "goalExpected": 0.24786082520060593, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24786082520060593, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21953144272541456, "goalProbability": 0.21953144272541456, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.8433616027056734, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.811934900542496, "Current_PP_SOG60": 8.98876404494382, "Current_5v5_Min": 13.166666666666668, "Current_PP_Share": 0.21246684350132625, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.8800300776809397, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.21428571428571427, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 0.9986202802997413, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 801.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.615004935834156, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 5.430774388199799, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.79040404040404, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.40489342923411137, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1427281754987813, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.210728668020427, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.2424046371060582, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.949790794979079, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 10.241820768136558, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.733333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 12.8 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Easton Cowan", "Nick Paul", "William Nylander" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 31, "priorAttempts": 119, "fitPct": 7.024288934014237, "index": 107.02428893401424, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 22.624017348875036, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 21.19815668202765, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.98536188669016, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 37 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 19.598807264841422, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 18 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.576850094876662, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.016806722689076, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16, "fitPct": 8.080154570201941, "index": 108.08015457020194, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 27.500000000000004, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.024288934014237, "zonePPFit": 8.080154570201941, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.3373299545282307, "attemptProjection": 2.0820504962753663, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 41.0, "sog": 24.0, "seconds": 11060.0, "expectedMinutes": 13.166666666666668, "projectedAttempts": 2.9285714285714284, "onNet": 0.539584982491557, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 801.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.8800300776809397, "projectedAttempts": 0.1318397120121258, "onNet": 0.5287572401178742, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.880458382353788, "ppAdjusted": 0.11494612876229615, "other": 0.21428571428571427 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2096902254017987, "baseline": 1.4090909090909092, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8484158", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.889450498877443, "adjustedSOG": 1.8809812272506872, "reductionPct": 0.44823993175727717, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.880458382353788, "afterPlayerForm": 1.880458382353788, "afterRecentDefense": 1.880458382353788, "afterRecentZones": 1.8750453050840767, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.8750453050840767, "adjusted": 1.8750453050840767, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.210728668020427, "newChartFactor": 1.2040799180452757, "playerRecentAttempts": 18.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 63.71666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.270104566073126, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4848349487486736, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.11494612876229615, "afterPlayerForm": 0.10628213602863223, "afterRecentDefense": 0.11494612876229615, "afterRecentZones": 0.11490461714192857, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.11490461714192857, "adjusted": 0.10624375332074826, "playerFactor": 0.9246256239600665, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.2424046371060582, "newChartFactor": 1.2417243086143934, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 5.033333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.0, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8809812272506872, "adjustedSOG": 1.8433616027056734, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 46, "beforeSOG": 1.8433616027056734, "adjustedSOG": 1.8433616027056734 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 16.0, "goalHistoryShots": 121.0, "goalExpected": 0.2430902307026573, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24030642432865076, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21579924840569678, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.21861044848064115 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850411939669923, "modelSOG": 1.8433616027056734, "historyGames": 80, "seasonGames": { "2025": 66, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 17.0, "historyShots": 122.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13934426229508196, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1344613150435582, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 60.24190476190476, "btb": { "id": "8484158", "name": "Easton Cowan", "score": 60.24190476190476, "components": { "Goal model": 79.28571428571429, "SOG model": 67.85714285714286, "Unit attack": 63.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 50, "Shot quality": 74.28571428571429, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 48.2, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Verified exact-five PP-unit statistics unavailable; PP component scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.5897019380783695, "unitPlayers": [ "Easton Cowan", "Nick Paul", "William Nylander" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 33 } }, { "id": "8484180", "name": "Samuel Honzek", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "L", "currentGP": 4, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": 1.2222222222222223, "currentTOI": 15.641666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 12.779166666666667, "ppShare": 0.0036036036036036037, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Out (reported)", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 18, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.008333333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 4 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 4 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Listed unavailable on latest report; not projected to dress.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.29300000000000004, "currentIXG": 0.07325000000000001, "priorTOI": 12.341666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 0.06296296296296296, "deploymentChange": 3.3000000000000007, "ppTOIChange": -0.054629629629629625, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.4 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11338404902457332, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.10904856031847622, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11553913106984269, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10331312695915067, "goalProbability": 0.10911428975596038, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5801162796809713, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 4, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.9617627987058613, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.34757091620476, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.779166666666667, "Current_PP_Share": 0.0036036036036036037, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.012692237692237693, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.0318189686373864, "Input_GP": 4, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 555.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.504904491481673, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.761111111111111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.016718537307883734, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1248532996298637, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9567526385278607, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0762063623776423, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.34757091620476, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024020040", "date": "20241013", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 11.4 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 32, "fitPct": -1.4415787157379754, "index": 98.55842128426202, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 7.500000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 42.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 2.5, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.4415787157379754, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.7881031811888212, "attemptProjection": 0.8535692255960434, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 3067.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.779166666666667, "projectedAttempts": 1.25, "onNet": 0.48984883826603254, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.012692237692237693, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5475792988313857, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5708362033924324, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.8208362033924324, "baseline": 1.2222222222222223, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 18, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484180", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.9813906109243483, "adjustedSOG": 0.9813906109243483, "reductionPct": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5708362033924324, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5708362033924324, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5708362033924324, "afterRecentZones": 0.5708362033924324, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5708362033924324, "adjusted": 0.5708362033924324, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9567526385278607, "newChartFactor": 0.9567526385278607, "playerRecentAttempts": 5.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 51.11666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0120626170240905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.03333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.9813906109243483, "adjustedSOG": 0.9617627987058613, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.9617627987058613, "adjustedSOG": 0.9617627987058613 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 31.0, "goalExpected": 0.11382745567630395, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11382745567630395, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10758807678931925, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853310422219105, "modelSOG": 0.9617627987058613, "historyGames": 27, "seasonGames": { "2024": 5, "2025": 18, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 31.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.06451612903225806, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11338404902457332, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484186", "name": "Ryan Leonard", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "R", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.5, "priorSOG": 2.04, "currentTOI": 14.309999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 11.265, "ppShare": 0.47723322905804655, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 4", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 75, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.288333333333333, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.50 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 3.286, "currentIXG": 0.3286, "priorTOI": 14.413555555555556, "priorPPTOI": 2.2413333333333334, "deploymentChange": -0.10355555555555718, "ppTOIChange": 0.04699999999999971, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.116666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 3, "h2hAvailableGames": 4, "h2hSOG": 2.3333333333333335, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.071428571428571, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12831059061621108, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 195.0, "goalExpected": 0.2872020667605543, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2872020667605543, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.24963990931570504, "goalProbability": 0.24963990931570504, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.23833485124858, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.456724367509986, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.7319737800437, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.265, "Current_PP_Share": 0.47723322905804655, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5485958836089178, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.5, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0002790509671295, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1373.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.744126804415511, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.849494348602022, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.776666666666667, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5122000613115089, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0626823276523873, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.092413236031594, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.8561315894416438, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.8658865886432715, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 8.23327615780446, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 14.103819784524976, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.25 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 11.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.583333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 17.116666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.45 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Boone Jenner", "Justin Sourdif", "Ryan Leonard" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 23, "priorAttempts": 180, "fitPct": 3.0804412010531337, "index": 103.08044120105313, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 16.106280193236717, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 49 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.93719806763285, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 32 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 20.599033816425123, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 34 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 25.980676328502415, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 23 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.21256038647343, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 35 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.164251207729468, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 51, "fitPct": -4.795613685278539, "index": 95.20438631472146, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 18.76750700280112, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.627450980392158, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.91036414565826, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.355742296918768, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.338935574229694, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.0804412010531337, "zonePPFit": -4.795613685278539, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.688620683449255, "attemptProjection": 2.9434974704598598, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 40.0, "sog": 14.0, "seconds": 6759.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.265, "projectedAttempts": 4.0, "onNet": 0.43268540116257537, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1373.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.5485958836089178, "projectedAttempts": 1.2251079994041412, "onNet": 0.5471961465831029, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7146330056874677, "ppAdjusted": 0.6014260712670898, "other": 0.5 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.8160590769545575, "baseline": 2.04, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 75, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484186", "goals": 1, "sog": 6, "shootingPct": 0.16666666666666666, "gamesWithAttempts": 2, "recordedAttempts": 7, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 4, "attempts": 5 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.5056354461727346, "adjustedSOG": 2.406811668009226, "reductionPct": 3.944060510257319, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7146330056874677, "afterPlayerForm": 1.7146330056874677, "afterRecentDefense": 1.5623652162229293, "afterRecentZones": 1.7146330056874677, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.5623652162229293, "adjusted": 1.5623652162229293, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9111951134969037, "oldChartFactor": 1.092413236031594, "newChartFactor": 1.092413236031594, "playerRecentAttempts": 20.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 55.6, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0130395683453237, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.5800583885987179, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.6014260712670898, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5889875637924473, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6014260712670898, "afterRecentZones": 0.6014260712670898, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6014260712670898, "adjusted": 0.5889875637924473, "playerFactor": 0.9793183101483497, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.8561315894416438, "newChartFactor": 0.8561315894416438, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.516666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8598267404237553, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 2.406811668009226, "adjustedSOG": 2.406811668009226, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 18, "beforeSOG": 2.406811668009226, "adjustedSOG": 2.23833485124858 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 25.0, "goalHistoryShots": 192.0, "goalExpected": 0.3324079000322185, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.34419139531200765, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.28280528056713583, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.840146407275616 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851624231782266, "modelSOG": 2.23833485124858, "historyGames": 94, "seasonGames": { "2024": 9, "2025": 75, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 25.0, "historyShots": 195.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1282051282051282, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12831059061621108, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 66.12714285714286, "btb": { "id": "8484186", "name": "Ryan Leonard", "score": 66.12714285714286, "components": { "Goal model": 86.42857142857143, "SOG model": 87.85714285714286, "Unit attack": 83.33333333333333, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 41.666666666666664, "Shot quality": 86.42857142857143, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 55.371428571428574, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.205910260865383, "unitPlayers": [ "Boone Jenner", "Justin Sourdif", "Ryan Leonard" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 4, "goalieH2HShots": 6, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 17 } }, { "id": "8484234", "name": "Aydar Suniev", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "R", "currentGP": 8, "currentSOG": 2.0, "priorSOG": 1.5, "currentTOI": 13.339583333333334, "currentFiveTOI": 11.689583333333333, "ppShare": 0.2816390041493776, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 6, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.13125, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.00 SOG/game in 8 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 8 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.556, "currentIXG": 0.1945, "priorTOI": 11.622222222222222, "priorPPTOI": 1.5361111111111112, "deploymentChange": 1.7173611111111118, "ppTOIChange": -0.4048611111111111, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.166666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1258084949140363, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 26.0, "goalExpected": 0.20939645845823407, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2218597365128868, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18892638510188514, "goalProbability": 0.19897228860454563, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.0045903502660491, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 8, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.664406355082084, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.34075922295491, "Current_PP_SOG60": 13.259668508287293, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.689583333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2816390041493776, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.9919595985791526, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.125, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.0318189686373864, "Input_GP": 8, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 543.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1928.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.03125, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 6.509945750452079, "Prior_5v5_Min": 9.955555555555556, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4078831381438106, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9685942799715255, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9101856275487992, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.0227376815390583, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8816005925560602, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1073680187269723, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.825242718446602, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Yegor Sharangovich", "Morgan Frost", "Aydar Suniev" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 18, "priorAttempts": 8, "fitPct": -2.9938124150400256, "index": 97.00618758495997, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 23.333333333333332, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 11.666666666666666, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 2, "fitPct": 0.7579227179686114, "index": 100.75792271796861, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.565263623029622, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5309649899459572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.382574193772484, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.999220132336035, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5973104262934754, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.24012500494106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.9938124150400256, "zonePPFit": 0.7579227179686114, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8003555121490784, "attemptProjection": 1.87546578610721, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 22.0, "sog": 13.0, "seconds": 5611.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.689583333333333, "projectedAttempts": 2.7499999999999996, "onNet": 0.5269678625643304, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 5.0, "sog": 2.0, "seconds": 543.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.9919595985791526, "projectedAttempts": 0.548043977115554, "onNet": 0.5341629989376233, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4305366209772346, "ppAdjusted": 0.2823740281509097, "other": 0.125 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.837910649128144, "baseline": 1.5, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 6, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484234", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.7027463894768864, "adjustedSOG": 1.6983738317164123, "reductionPct": 0.2567944226748553, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4305366209772346, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4305366209772346, "afterRecentDefense": 1.4305366209772346, "afterRecentZones": 1.4305366209772346, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.4305366209772346, "adjusted": 1.4305366209772346, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9101856275487992, "newChartFactor": 0.9101856275487992, "playerRecentAttempts": 15.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.53333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.108250816391025, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.062665747875295, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2823740281509097, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2823740281509097, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2750864318834526, "afterRecentZones": 0.2823740281509097, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2750864318834526, "adjusted": 0.2750864318834526, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1.0227376815390583, "newChartFactor": 1.0227376815390583, "playerRecentAttempts": 4.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 6.816666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0621026894865524, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6983738317164123, "adjustedSOG": 1.664406355082084, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 53, "beforeSOG": 1.664406355082084, "adjustedSOG": 1.664406355082084 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 20.0, "goalExpected": 0.20340799457003506, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.20340799457003506, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18405472773510587, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851870359168574, "modelSOG": 1.664406355082084, "historyGames": 15, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 6, "2026": 8 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 26.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11538461538461539, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1258084949140363, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 58.55790043290044, "btb": { "id": "8484234", "name": "Aydar Suniev", "score": 58.55790043290044, "components": { "Goal model": 67.85714285714286, "SOG model": 62.857142857142854, "Unit attack": 70.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 16.666666666666668, "Shot quality": 66.42857142857143, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.7252488910170496, "unitPlayers": [ "Yegor Sharangovich", "Morgan Frost", "Aydar Suniev" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 41 } }, { "id": "8484258", "name": "Sam Malinski", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.0, "priorSOG": 2, "currentTOI": 16.971212121212123, "currentFiveTOI": 16.11969696969697, "ppShare": 0.03073886068809927, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 82, "currentTotalSOG": 11.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.16515151515151516, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.00 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.5599999999999999, "currentIXG": 0.050909090909090904, "priorTOI": 17.616260162601627, "priorPPTOI": 0.21890243902439024, "deploymentChange": -0.6450480413895043, "ppTOIChange": -0.053750923872875084, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.4 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 5, "h2hSOG": 1.6, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.04818110405416354, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.06418181289183868, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.06643555821816752, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06216552636842116, "goalProbability": 0.0642767864153512, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.211126004693004, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.332095105576819, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.7221543378137043, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.11969696969697, "Current_PP_Share": 0.03073886068809927, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.14095048411355518, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.0019232912258917, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 109.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3546.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.102453643004308, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.3426183844011144, "Prior_5v5_Min": 16.277439024390244, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.03996092911808883, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9298540965207632, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9612288340112081, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8938025689991985, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.0862656072644725, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 2.5 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 }, { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.433333333333334 }, { "gameId": "2025020161", "date": "20251028", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.633333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.483333333333333 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 14.3 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 19.4 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 241, "fitPct": -1.2923721996263993, "index": 98.7076278003736, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 75.08626337628303, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 167 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 10.801485040401834, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 4.485695566717625, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.6556016597510377, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.4730290456431545, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 39 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.49792531120331956, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.2923721996263993, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8938025689991987, "attemptProjection": 0.9401518006103088, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 31.0, "sog": 11.0, "seconds": 10639.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.11969696969697, "projectedAttempts": 2.8181818181818183, "onNet": 0.3810109572468446, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 109.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.14095048411355518, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.41391304347826086, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.9169771848047538, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9169771848047538, "baseline": 2, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 82, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484258", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.3501863108828522, "adjustedSOG": 1.332095105576819, "reductionPct": 1.33990436432464, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.9169771848047538, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8868251759613649, "afterRecentDefense": 0.9169771848047538, "afterRecentZones": 0.9169771848047538, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.9169771848047538, "adjusted": 0.8868251759613649, "playerFactor": 0.9671180381114837, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9612288340112081, "newChartFactor": 0.9612288340112081, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 78.05, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8061347495746455, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0391569742827893, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.26666666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.332095105576819, "adjustedSOG": 1.332095105576819, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 77, "beforeSOG": 1.332095105576819, "adjustedSOG": 1.332095105576819 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 13.0, "goalHistoryShots": 290.0, "goalExpected": 0.07349924485800308, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07349924485800308, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07086315257849123, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057906305811237804, "modelSOG": 1.332095105576819, "historyGames": 169, "seasonGames": { "2024": 76, "2025": 82, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 13.0, "historyShots": 290.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.04482758620689655, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.04818110405416354, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 38.05037549407115, "btb": { "id": "8484258", "name": "Sam Malinski", "score": 38.05037549407115, "components": { "Goal model": 17.142857142857142, "SOG model": 45.714285714285715, "Unit attack": 65.21739130434783, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 12.857142857142858, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 50.266666666666666, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.747363565888696, "unitPlayers": [ "Brett Kulak", "Sam Malinski" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 5, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 103 } }, { "id": "8484387", "name": "Matvei Michkov", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "R", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.4285714285714286, "priorSOG": 2.0123456790123457, "currentTOI": 15.799999999999999, "currentFiveTOI": 11.81547619047619, "ppShare": 0.6205733558178752, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 81, "currentTotalSOG": 20.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.0666666666666664, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.43 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 4.693, "currentIXG": 0.3352142857142857, "priorTOI": 14.840329218106994, "priorPPTOI": 2.003086419753086, "deploymentChange": 0.9596707818930046, "ppTOIChange": 1.0635802469135802, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.15 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 5, "h2hAvailableGames": 8, "h2hSOG": 1.2, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 7.9, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13840034946445648, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 383.0, "goalExpected": 0.24651354498338715, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.24651354498338715, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2184792242206118, "goalProbability": 0.2184792242206118, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.7811627350456651, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.2644836272040303, "Current_PP_SOG60": 12.577639751552795, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.81547619047619, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6205733558178752, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.243530073074761, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 1.0484552293030407, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2576.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4151.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 7.635977980910055, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.875192604006163, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.22283950617284, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4704235491458158, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.15, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0388753319376232, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.099538515681437, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.1390331448860738, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 3.8538739462063427, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.713977334052887, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 2.75 }, { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 4, "sogPerGame": 1.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 14.15 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 12.766666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 4.0, "toi": 16.866666666666667 }, { "gameId": "2025020889", "date": "20260203", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 1.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 15.9 }, { "gameId": "2024021092", "date": "20250320", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 20.016666666666666 }, { "gameId": "2024020864", "date": "20250206", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 6.0, "goals": 2.0, "attempts": 12.0, "toi": 19.533333333333335 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 21.05 }, { "gameId": "2024020092", "date": "20241022", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 19.933333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 19, "priorAttempts": 176, "fitPct": 1.2958443979207743, "index": 101.29584439792077, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 17.655502392344495, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 36 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 12.906698564593302, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 29 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 35.94497607655502, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 47 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.607655502392344, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 30 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 7.703349282296651, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.181818181818182, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 14 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 13, "priorAttempts": 35, "fitPct": 3.3179505227145683, "index": 103.31795052271457, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 11.47252747252747, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 6.9010989010989015, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.31868131868132, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 13 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.945054945054945, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 22.98901098901099, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 10.373626373626372, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 1 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.2958443979207743, "zonePPFit": 3.3179505227145683, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.6566085637500492, "attemptProjection": 1.7893307679170496, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 29.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 9925.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.81547619047619, "projectedAttempts": 2.071428571428571, "onNet": 0.43167384059154024, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 16.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2576.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.243530073074761, "projectedAttempts": 1.2087689713322092, "onNet": 0.52265721948681, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.842171078347566, "ppAdjusted": 0.7379414446288404, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.7229696658335494, "baseline": 2.0123456790123457, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 81, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; 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blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.838720071105068, "adjustedSOG": 1.8175129949445563, "reductionPct": 1.153360780347945, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.842171078347566, "afterPlayerForm": 0.8193964099211415, "afterRecentDefense": 0.842171078347566, "afterRecentZones": 0.842171078347566, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.842171078347566, "adjusted": 0.8193964099211415, "playerFactor": 0.9729571947886041, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0388753319376232, "newChartFactor": 1.0388753319376232, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 62.36666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8231353323872537, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0410397944241867, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7379414446288404, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7379414446288404, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7255365607941212, "afterRecentZones": 0.7377730390376943, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7253709861210791, "adjusted": 0.7253709861210791, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1.099538515681437, "newChartFactor": 1.099060331993918, "playerRecentAttempts": 12.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.466666666666665, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.8435114503816794, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.8175129949445563, "adjustedSOG": 1.7811627350456651, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 49, "beforeSOG": 1.7811627350456651, "adjustedSOG": 1.7811627350456651 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 54.0, "goalHistoryShots": 382.0, "goalExpected": 0.23545409622931868, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.23284140972954032, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.20978806411623357, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.20672754522223502 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1284736879133249, "modelSOG": 1.7811627350456651, "historyGames": 175, "seasonGames": { "2024": 80, "2025": 81, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 54.0, "historyShots": 383.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1409921671018277, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13840034946445648, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": 68.21142857142857, "btb": { "id": "8484387", "name": "Matvei Michkov", "score": 68.21142857142857, "components": { "Goal model": 78.57142857142857, "SOG model": 65.71428571428571, "Unit attack": 50.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 100.0, "Shot quality": 90.71428571428571, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 67.6, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.434890517352242, "unitPlayers": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 8, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 8 } }, { "id": "8484509", "name": "Josh Samanski", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "C", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.0, "priorSOG": 0.4166666666666667, "currentTOI": 7.733333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 7.322222222222222, "ppShare": 0.07345286292654714, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 24, "currentTotalSOG": 0.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.3527777777777778, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.00 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.124, "currentIXG": 0.020666666666666667, "priorTOI": 10.555555555555555, "priorPPTOI": 0, "deploymentChange": -2.822222222222222, "ppTOIChange": 0.3527777777777778, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.545454545454545, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13500858610206903, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.03253138921269198, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.031995594698414204, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.03200793515437944, "goalProbability": 0.031489151347822764, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.051878380655667744, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.24095792832092647, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 7.322222222222222, "Current_PP_Share": 0.07345286292654714, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.3635731227836491, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 1.0024035877344022, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 127.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 1729.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 2.4860161591050343, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 10.05625, "Prior_PP_Share": 0, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0631045012585125, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1753720048711076, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 0, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "venue": "away", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 9.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-13T18:05:51.141Z", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 20, "fitPct": 5.845733495703584, "index": 105.84573349570358, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 36.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 44.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.000000000000001, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 2.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 5.845733495703584, "zonePPFit": null, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.0, "attemptProjection": 0.2567254931731803, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 3.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 2636.0, "expectedMinutes": 7.322222222222222, "projectedAttempts": 0.5, "onNet": 0.47846805816877386, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 0.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 127.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.3635731227836491, "projectedAttempts": 0.0, "onNet": 0.5205959684487291, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.12836274658659014, "ppAdjusted": 0.0, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.12836274658659014, "baseline": 0.4166666666666667, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 24, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484509", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.24368431461862078, "adjustedSOG": 0.24095792832092647, "reductionPct": 1.1188189531038395, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.12836274658659014, "afterPlayerForm": 0.12836274658659014, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12381876942376631, "afterRecentZones": 0.12836274658659014, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.12381876942376631, "adjusted": 0.12381876942376631, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9646004991038535, "oldChartFactor": 1.1753720048711076, "newChartFactor": 1.1625136441928199, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 35.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2463356973995272, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8317397001751148, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.0, "afterPlayerForm": 0.0, "afterRecentDefense": 0.0, "afterRecentZones": 0.0, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.0, "adjusted": 0.0, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1, "newChartFactor": 1, "playerRecentAttempts": 0.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 2.1166666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": null, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": "No usable saved player chart; chart unchanged" } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.24095792832092647, "adjustedSOG": 0.24095792832092647, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.24095792832092647, "adjustedSOG": 0.24095792832092647 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 10.0, "goalExpected": 0.030758940894949977, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.030766023693358964, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.030290697839830388, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0006868231179343182 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850944471227593, "modelSOG": 0.24095792832092647, "historyGames": 30, "seasonGames": { "2025": 24, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 10.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13500858610206903, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484768", "name": "Zayne Parekh", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "D", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 1.9090909090909092, "priorSOG": 1.3243243243243243, "currentTOI": 17.64090909090909, "currentFiveTOI": 14.593939393939394, "ppShare": 0.7127211457455771, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 21.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.5636363636363635, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.91 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.642, "currentIXG": 0.14927272727272725, "priorTOI": 17.14324324324324, "priorPPTOI": 2.2693693693693695, "deploymentChange": 0.49766584766585, "ppTOIChange": 0.294266994266994, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.3 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.06847568768160325, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 72.0, "goalExpected": 0.10892162569736263, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11540464129956685, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10319929912647012, "goalProbability": 0.10899446668413952, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5795167557669401, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.5906612899431403, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.606312292358804, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.638297872340425, "Current_5v5_Min": 14.593939393939394, "Current_PP_Share": 0.7127211457455771, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.5102722677491003, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.09090909090909091, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.01231993739639, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1692.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 3.215105894360806, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 7.145692735212386, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.122522522522521, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.6025849909491768, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0471380471380471, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9357748048468025, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9251494117118779, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.979885401708268, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.0017044346426396, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.931621584511877, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 3.522504892367906, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 12.3 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Yan Kuznetsov", "Zayne Parekh" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 25, "priorAttempts": 49, "fitPct": -2.1408398384399163, "index": 97.85916016156008, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 59.624489795918365, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 16, "priorAttempts": 26 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.346938775510203, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 8.06530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 1.6326530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.69795918367347, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 1.6326530612244898, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 15, "fitPct": -2.4950196096040713, "index": 97.50498039039593, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 76.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.565263623029622, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 11 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.333333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5309649899459572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.382574193772484, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.999220132336035, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5973104262934754, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.24012500494106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -2.1408398384399163, "zonePPFit": -2.4950196096040713, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.872958808428937, "attemptProjection": 1.926859644490031, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 38.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 9632.0, "expectedMinutes": 14.593939393939394, "projectedAttempts": 3.4545454545454546, "onNet": 0.39615781292039104, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 5.0, "seconds": 1692.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.5102722677491003, "projectedAttempts": 1.0682009649996171, "onNet": 0.41444600280504906, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.34260706857828, "ppAdjusted": 0.46639306697211314, "other": 0.09090909090909091 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.8999092264594841, "baseline": 1.3243243243243243, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 37, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484768", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6696752656054201, "adjustedSOG": 1.6231237652481023, "reductionPct": 2.788057133998345, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.34260706857828, "afterPlayerForm": 1.3198356364787296, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3117488771578083, "afterRecentZones": 1.334529000194173, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3038564733559443, "adjusted": 1.2817422749091685, "playerFactor": 0.983039392066017, "defenseFactor": 0.9770162155833513, "oldChartFactor": 0.9357748048468025, "newChartFactor": 0.9244603142097703, "playerRecentAttempts": 14.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 66.28333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.892288553921893, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8945910632623657, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.46639306697211314, "afterPlayerForm": 0.46166465799820233, "afterRecentDefense": 0.45435625042672845, "afterRecentZones": 0.4663123392281376, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.4542776061293415, "adjusted": 0.449672026712362, "playerFactor": 0.9898617511520738, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 0.9251494117118779, "newChartFactor": 0.9248143819661057, "playerRecentAttempts": 7.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9373219373219374, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.6231237652481023, "adjustedSOG": 1.5906612899431403, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 58, "beforeSOG": 1.5906612899431403, "adjustedSOG": 1.5906612899431403 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 6.0, "goalHistoryShots": 69.0, "goalExpected": 0.12394291465278273, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.12394291465278273, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.11656972963292897, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.0577781828123576, "modelSOG": 1.5906612899431403, "historyGames": 49, "seasonGames": { "2024": 1, "2025": 37, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 6.0, "historyShots": 72.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.08333333333333333, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.06847568768160325, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 52.93969038208169, "btb": { "id": "8484768", "name": "Zayne Parekh", "score": 52.93969038208169, "components": { "Goal model": 32.142857142857146, "SOG model": 59.285714285714285, "Unit attack": 30.434782608695652, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 91.66666666666667, "Shot quality": 48.57142857142857, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 49.63636363636363, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.0570745869641565, "unitPlayers": [ "Yan Kuznetsov", "Zayne Parekh" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 53 } }, { "id": "8484800", "name": "Berkly Catton", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 1.8333333333333333, "priorSOG": 1.1818181818181819, "currentTOI": 14.915277777777776, "currentFiveTOI": 11.891666666666666, "ppShare": 0.5246144721233689, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 66, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.4569444444444444, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.83 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.28, "currentIXG": 0.18999999999999997, "priorTOI": 12.93560606060606, "priorPPTOI": 0.829040404040404, "deploymentChange": 1.9796717171717155, "ppTOIChange": 1.6279040404040404, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 3.2 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 11.428571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11427036273520769, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 100.0, "goalExpected": 0.18716184100764724, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18448215903517692, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.17069049076265796, "goalProbability": 0.16846522485026133, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.22252659123966345, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.6378861196174452, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.727400140154169, "Current_PP_SOG60": 6.105144149236857, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.891666666666666, "Current_PP_Share": 0.5246144721233689, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.254166666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.7564118722815336, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.25, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0643178012630914, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9507853371530723, "Position_Factor": 1.0144563171058298, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1769.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3372.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.193152166995482, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 8.772464209564422, "Prior_5v5_Min": 11.90378787878788, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.1991503895182354, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1250111796798141, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1489186944716148, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9643028415412706, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9168450023124826, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 5.94222833562586, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.848837209302325, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020857", "date": "20260129", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 3.2 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Kaapo Kakko", "Berkly Catton", "Shane Wright" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 116, "fitPct": 4.963956482387161, "index": 104.96395648238716, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.86206896551724, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.90762495353745, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 17 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 17.67241379310345, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.070457656209683, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.862068965517242, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.052538253596367, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 46 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.810344827586206, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.0766711229335755, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 27 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 9.568965517241379, "opponentDeltaPct": 21.05896806399896, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 9.224137931034482, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.333276376860766, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": -1.1899052819576497, "index": 98.81009471804235, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 3.3333333333333335, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8919229829317317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 26.666666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.417125371521905, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.338754942521618, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 13.333333333333334, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.023169614333597, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.368283605501887, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 29.607518378179492, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.963956482387161, "zonePPFit": -1.1899052819576497, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.0404822541331638, "attemptProjection": 1.9268140490789927, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 28.0, "sog": 16.0, "seconds": 8562.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.891666666666666, "projectedAttempts": 2.333333333333333, "onNet": 0.530241116448013, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0551100158474345, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.022409108062737 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 1769.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.7564118722815336, "projectedAttempts": 0.6544335705812573, "onNet": 0.5092947091655519, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0546006356198079, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9733995273917663 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.4339997353605058, "ppAdjusted": 0.2996484162455725, "other": 0.25 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.9836481516060782, "baseline": 1.1818181818181819, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 66, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484800", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6629161636909195, "adjustedSOG": 1.6378861196174452, "reductionPct": 1.5051897756480415, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.4339997353605058, "afterPlayerForm": 1.4339997353605058, "afterRecentDefense": 1.3984004794344242, "afterRecentZones": 1.4339997353605058, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.3984004794344242, "adjusted": 1.3984004794344242, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9751748518160417, "oldChartFactor": 1.1489186944716148, "newChartFactor": 1.1489186944716148, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 54.65, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.0258136191347536, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8818658854948088, "defenseRecentMinutes": 233.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.2996484162455725, "afterPlayerForm": 0.2946872043722026, "afterRecentDefense": 0.2996484162455725, "afterRecentZones": 0.2984726774785108, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.2984726774785108, "adjusted": 0.2935309320491963, "playerFactor": 0.9834432234432234, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9643028415412706, "newChartFactor": 0.955484852101833, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 14.25, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8867167919799499, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0052388289676426, "defenseRecentMinutes": 32.45, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.6378861196174452, "adjustedSOG": 1.6378861196174452, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 55, "beforeSOG": 1.6378861196174452, "adjustedSOG": 1.6378861196174452 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 9.0, "goalHistoryShots": 95.0, "goalExpected": 0.20811139929025949, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.19760891724814728, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18788343753601738, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.8574185917758131 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12854072547041537, "modelSOG": 1.6378861196174452, "historyGames": 78, "seasonGames": { "2025": 66, "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 100.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.1, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11427036273520769, "goalieFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 54.32465367965368, "btb": { "id": "8484800", "name": "Berkly Catton", "score": 54.32465367965368, "components": { "Goal model": 61.42857142857143, "SOG model": 61.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 76.66666666666667, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 25.0, "Shot quality": 64.28571428571429, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 49.527272727272724, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.8600030915226355, "unitPlayers": [ "Kaapo Kakko", "Berkly Catton", "Shane Wright" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 51 } }, { "id": "8484860", "name": "Matvei Gridin", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "L", "currentGP": 11, "currentSOG": 2.272727272727273, "priorSOG": 1.8918918918918919, "currentTOI": 15.081818181818182, "currentFiveTOI": 12.153030303030304, "ppShare": 0.6992417860151643, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 37, "currentTotalSOG": 25.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.515151515151515, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.27 SOG/game in 11 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 11 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.803, "currentIXG": 0.1639090909090909, "priorTOI": 15.164414414414415, "priorPPTOI": 1.85990990990991, "deploymentChange": -0.08259623259623261, "ppTOIChange": 0.6552416052416052, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.416666666666666 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 4.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11719748088169141, "goalHistoryGoals": 10.0, "goalHistoryShots": 95.0, "goalExpected": 0.23912377273977886, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.25335642066074593, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.21268257209341845, "goalProbability": 0.2238088180580432, "goalAdjustmentPP": 1.1126245964624748, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 11, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.0403490837927625, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 8.078793167934172, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.180722891566266, "Current_5v5_Min": 12.153030303030304, "Current_PP_Share": 0.6992417860151643, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.462796669304673, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.0318189686373864, "Input_GP": 11, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1660.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2374.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 6.675296504915509, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 10.462581738919836, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.875225225225226, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.49386133934679455, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1248532996298637, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.9607266317157195, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1061410202613873, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.080676521727712, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.398527145059085, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 7.2, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 4.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 12.65 }, { "gameId": "2025020006", "date": "20251008", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 15.416666666666666 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Matvei Gridin", "Martin Pospisil", "Ryan Strome" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "ppAssignmentSourceDate": "2026-10-12T17:12:03.968Z", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 30, "priorAttempts": 82, "fitPct": -1.3091122761426845, "index": 98.69088772385732, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.804878048780488, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 9, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 19.26829268292683, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 19 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 13.804878048780486, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 16 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.82926829268293, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 14 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.85365853658537, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 12 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 8.439024390243901, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 5 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 14, "fitPct": 3.5380340087129127, "index": 103.53803400871291, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.565263623029622, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 8.571428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5309649899459572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 17.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.382574193772484, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 17.142857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.999220132336035, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 31.428571428571427, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5973104262934754, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.24012500494106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -1.3091122761426845, "zonePPFit": 3.5380340087129127, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.4849645768477417, "attemptProjection": 2.099603182017141, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 39.0, "sog": 18.0, "seconds": 8021.0, "expectedMinutes": 12.153030303030304, "projectedAttempts": 3.5454545454545463, "onNet": 0.4824908551082223, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 7.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 1660.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.462796669304673, "projectedAttempts": 0.62311722958311, "onNet": 0.6031397358170049, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7273033075822808, "ppAdjusted": 0.5649805718501606, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.2922838794324414, "baseline": 1.8918918918918919, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 37, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484860", "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "shootingPct": 0.3333333333333333, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "season": 2025, "goals": 1, "sog": 3, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.1321270844162217, "adjustedSOG": 2.081988861013023, "reductionPct": 2.3515588620237615, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7273033075822808, "afterPlayerForm": 1.6618919190959824, "afterRecentDefense": 1.7273033075822808, "afterRecentZones": 1.7235916257869568, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.7235916257869568, "adjusted": 1.658320795278395, "playerFactor": 0.9621309192200557, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9607266317157195, "newChartFactor": 0.9566936613954516, "playerRecentAttempts": 13.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 59.666666666666664, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7468342644320297, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0120626170240905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5649805718501606, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5649805718501606, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5503993784820491, "afterRecentZones": 0.5649805718501606, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5503993784820491, "adjusted": 0.5503993784820491, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1.1061410202613873, "newChartFactor": 1.1061410202613873, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.166666666666668, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3814147018030514, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.081988861013023, "adjustedSOG": 2.0403490837927625, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 40, "beforeSOG": 2.0403490837927625, "adjustedSOG": 2.0403490837927625 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 8.0, "goalHistoryShots": 90.0, "goalExpected": 0.2181158359721956, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2181158359721956, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.19596769959108482, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12853508771929825, "modelSOG": 2.0403490837927625, "historyGames": 48, "seasonGames": { "2025": 37, "2026": 11 }, "historyGoals": 10.0, "historyShots": 95.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.10526315789473684, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11719748088169141, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Moderate" }, "btbScore": 65.97554434522623, "btb": { "id": "8484860", "name": "Matvei Gridin", "score": 65.97554434522623, "components": { "Goal model": 76.42857142857143, "SOG model": 73.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 46.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 91.66666666666667, "Shot quality": 53.57142857142857, "Goalie": 90.3409090909091, "Team H2H": 56.86666666666667, "Goalie H2H": 52.56691531373409 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4005205244313776, "unitPlayers": [ "Matvei Gridin", "Martin Pospisil", "Ryan Strome" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 2, "goalieH2HShots": 3, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 18 } }, { "id": "8484873", "name": "Cole Hutson", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 2.2, "priorSOG": 1.5714285714285714, "currentTOI": 19.206666666666667, "currentFiveTOI": 16.038333333333334, "ppShare": 0.38651372957942304, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 14, "currentTotalSOG": 22.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.8533333333333335, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.20 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.224, "currentIXG": 0.22240000000000001, "priorTOI": 17.45714285714286, "priorPPTOI": 2.1785714285714284, "deploymentChange": 1.749523809523808, "ppTOIChange": -0.3252380952380949, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.966666666666667 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.357142857142858, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.07483619206638331, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.14482375649471213, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.14482375649471213, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1348252388928163, "goalProbability": 0.1348252388928163, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.9352101235488635, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 6.35976306765042, "Current_PP_SOG60": 3.237410071942446, "Current_5v5_Min": 16.038333333333334, "Current_PP_Share": 0.38651372957942304, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.064121356571826, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.4, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 1.0036241774400185, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1112.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 4.709730171708912, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 3.9344262295081966, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.55952380952381, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4978574149103749, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0787037037037037, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 7.363636363636363, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1493218339548743, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1652211989911572, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.8581173260572985, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 10.966666666666667 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Hutson", "Jack St. Ivany" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 21, "priorAttempts": 29, "fitPct": 4.977394465162476, "index": 104.97739446516248, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 32.41379310344827, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 9 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.187192118226601, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 1.3793103448275863, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 39.60591133004926, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 8.275862068965518, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 4.137931034482759, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 6, "fitPct": 5.507373299705236, "index": 105.50737329970524, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 33.33333333333333, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 6.666666666666667, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.977394465162476, "zonePPFit": 5.507373299705236, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 2.4830794726649783, "attemptProjection": 2.082015901103522, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 35.0, "sog": 17.0, "seconds": 9623.0, "expectedMinutes": 16.038333333333334, "projectedAttempts": 3.5000000000000004, "onNet": 0.4336692651411107, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 1.0, "seconds": 1112.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.064121356571826, "projectedAttempts": 0.22274690898257116, "onNet": 0.41722408026755853, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.7752387070526983, "ppAdjusted": 0.10730897983155185, "other": 0.4 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 2.28254768688425, "baseline": 1.5714285714285714, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 14, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484873", "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 0, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.9981000407019784, "adjustedSOG": 1.9352101235488635, "reductionPct": 3.1474859052112447, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.7752387070526983, "afterPlayerForm": 1.756007348312702, "afterRecentDefense": 1.6917196114946271, "afterRecentZones": 1.7752387070526983, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.6917196114946271, "adjusted": 1.6733930244238924, "playerFactor": 0.9891668885634403, "defenseFactor": 0.952953315390057, "oldChartFactor": 1.1493218339548743, "newChartFactor": 1.1493218339548743, "playerRecentAttempts": 17.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 83.06666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9378066957119927, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7775250740791325, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.10730897983155185, "afterPlayerForm": 0.10506680498139738, "afterRecentDefense": 0.10730897983155185, "afterRecentZones": 0.10656475853907071, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.10656475853907071, "adjusted": 0.10433813387183262, "playerFactor": 0.9791054313099041, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.1652211989911572, "newChartFactor": 1.1516798811094393, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 11.083333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.8360902255639098, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.9352101235488635, "adjustedSOG": 1.9352101235488635, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 41, "beforeSOG": 1.9352101235488635, "adjustedSOG": 1.9352101235488635 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 5.0, "goalHistoryShots": 44.0, "goalExpected": 0.17540917173138063, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.18162723437949493, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1608863910514046, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5201472688542153 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.05776411657559199, "modelSOG": 1.9352101235488635, "historyGames": 24, "seasonGames": { "2025": 14, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 5.0, "historyShots": 44.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.11363636363636363, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.07483619206638331, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 55.599698851872766, "btb": { "id": "8484873", "name": "Cole Hutson", "score": 55.599698851872766, "components": { "Goal model": 46.42857142857143, "SOG model": 71.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 91.30434782608695, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 41.666666666666664, "Shot quality": 70.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 49.63636363636363, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.181815657945582, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Hutson", "Jack St. Ivany" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 0, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 48 } }, { "id": "8484958", "name": "Maxim Tsyplakov", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "position": "L", "currentGP": 6, "currentSOG": 0.5, "priorSOG": 0.8571428571428571, "currentTOI": 11.191666666666668, "currentFiveTOI": 10.225, "ppShare": 0.2927094668117519, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Not on projected lineup", "projected": false, "line": null, "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:54:39.332Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 49, "currentTotalSOG": 3.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.7472222222222222, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.50 SOG/game in 6 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 6 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Not listed on latest projected chart; October 28 dressing status unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.412, "currentIXG": 0.06866666666666667, "priorTOI": 9.120748299319729, "priorPPTOI": 0.10918367346938775, "deploymentChange": 2.0709183673469393, "ppTOIChange": 0.6380385487528345, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021050", "date": "20250314", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020249", "date": "20241112", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 2, "h2hAvailableGames": 2, "h2hSOG": 1.5, "opponentDefense": { "team": "EDM", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 327.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.25, "mostAllowedRank": 19, "fiveSogAllowed60": 25.4525447042641, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.56728444802579, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 40.833333333333336, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 62.0, "L": 75.0, "D": 96.0, "C": 94.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.833333333333333, "L": 6.25, "R": 5.166666666666667, "D": 8.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 27.25, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.25, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.09524597389077914, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 161.0, "goalExpected": 0.0723331794802764, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07663845061560269, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.06977908634632715, "goalProbability": 0.07377533096440454, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.3996244618077391, "recentlyDressed": false, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 6, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.7594355595882992, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.93398533007335, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.225, "Current_PP_Share": 0.2927094668117519, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 3.52209595959596, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.0309508303931592, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9957512936542537, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0827488208516565, "Position_Factor": 1.0318189686373864, "Input_GP": 6, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 269.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 919.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.776945707408398, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 0, "Prior_5v5_Min": 8.902380952380952, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.028151034653729007, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1248532996298637, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0024542452936571, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.1630335205062428, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.127613965546535, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.93398533007335, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2024", "label": "2024–25", "games": 2, "sogPerGame": 1.5 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2024021050", "date": "20250314", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 0.0, "toi": 11.55 }, { "gameId": "2024020249", "date": "20241112", "team": "NYI", "opponent": "EDM", "venue": "away", "sog": 3.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 5.0, "toi": 16.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": false, "lineMates": [], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 70, "fitPct": 0.0818081764552403, "index": 100.08180817645524, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 31.071428571428573, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4883368091629734, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 15 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 5.714285714285714, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.978154593210377, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 10 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 34.5, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.150682943110155, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 21 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.071428571428571, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.9189888843519753, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 8 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2100855912449191, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 12.642857142857142, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.274206307051031, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 9 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1, "fitPct": 5.434450683541428, "index": 105.43445068354143, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.565263623029622, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 60.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.5309649899459572, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 40.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.382574193772484, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 15.999220132336035, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5973104262934754, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.24012500494106, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 0.0818081764552403, "zonePPFit": 5.434450683541428, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.5638069827732675, "attemptProjection": 0.8995084004677953, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 8.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 3681.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.225, "projectedAttempts": 1.3333333333333333, "onNet": 0.48175320870054805, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9762594374964852, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0096939348470615 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 2.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 269.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.0309508303931592, "projectedAttempts": 0.45990371616051706, "onNet": 0.5265185565686401, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0898513414229511, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.009231135727473 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.5984870449395454, "ppAdjusted": 0.13317064668098602, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7316576916205314, "baseline": 0.8571428571428571, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 49, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "savePct": 0.84, "gaa": 4.100227790432802, "gsax": -0.6779999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "shotsAgainst": 25.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3512.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.322 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8477465", "goalieName": "Tristan Jarry", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8484958", "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 1, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020013", "date": "20251009", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 1, "attempts": 1 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7818517578294617, "adjustedSOG": 0.7749342444778564, "reductionPct": 0.8847602224249407, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.5984870449395454, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5923990027410603, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5984870449395454, "afterRecentZones": 0.5964622100576784, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5964622100576784, "adjusted": 0.5903947652644504, "playerFactor": 0.9898276123936817, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0024542452936571, "newChartFactor": 0.9952538934521031, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 49.733333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.9251843163538874, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.0120626170240905, "defenseRecentMinutes": 266.05, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.13317064668098602, "afterPlayerForm": 0.13317064668098602, "afterRecentDefense": 0.12973373743673877, "afterRecentZones": 0.13317064668098602, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.12973373743673877, "adjusted": 0.12973373743673877, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.974191690662279, "oldChartFactor": 1.1630335205062428, "newChartFactor": 1.1608597756915162, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 3.6333333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.2339449541284404, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.759892843474933, "defenseRecentMinutes": 16.75, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 0.7749342444778564, "adjustedSOG": 0.7594355595882992, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": 0.7594355595882992, "adjustedSOG": 0.7594355595882992 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 12.0, "goalHistoryShots": 161.0, "goalExpected": 0.07593635216932013, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07593635216932013, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.07312480172230378, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12859199185493356, "modelSOG": 0.7594355595882992, "historyGames": 132, "seasonGames": { "2024": 77, "2025": 49, "2026": 6 }, "historyGoals": 12.0, "historyShots": 161.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07453416149068323, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.09524597389077914, "goalieFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "confidence": "Larger sample" }, "btbScore": null, "btb": null }, { "id": "8484999", "name": "Ilya Protas", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "C", "currentGP": 10, "currentSOG": 0.9, "priorSOG": 1.75, "currentTOI": 11.793333333333333, "currentFiveTOI": 9.898333333333333, "ppShare": 0.34306569343065696, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP2 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 4, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 1.645, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.90 SOG/game in 10 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 10 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 1.5010000000000001, "currentIXG": 0.1501, "priorTOI": 15.891666666666667, "priorPPTOI": 2.4291666666666667, "deploymentChange": -4.0983333333333345, "ppTOIChange": -0.7841666666666667, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.214285714285714, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1280312100719072, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 16.0, "goalExpected": 0.16115916816059897, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.16115916816059897, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.14884341670298065, "goalProbability": 0.14884341670298065, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 10, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.258749082119007, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.4246506145815796, "Current_PP_SOG60": 10.94224924012158, "Current_5v5_Min": 9.898333333333333, "Current_PP_Share": 0.34306569343065696, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.340357142857143, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 1.8320933263816477, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.2, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0706401846218923, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0113942755084995, "Position_Factor": 0.9970876670412914, "Input_GP": 10, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 987.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 2877.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 5.778491171749598, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 12.34991423670669, "Prior_5v5_Min": 12.979166666666666, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.5551246202866776, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.049749575172167, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.1275501613243568, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9835026232382096, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9947089230907177, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.977667493796526, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 9.89010989010989, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Ovechkin", "Ilya Protas", "Anthony Beauvillier" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 5, "fitPct": 4.251672044145224, "index": 104.25167204414522, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 39.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 16.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 15.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 4, "fitPct": -0.5499125587263478, "index": 99.45008744127365, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -10.297440501162342, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 22.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.240725642141541, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 66.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -7.961552646441632, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 12.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.931271222116507, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.30280052653066, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -5.518664229333183, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 4.251672044145224, "zonePPFit": -0.5499125587263478, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.9923525069337593, "attemptProjection": 0.9373488479346079, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 10.0, "sog": 4.0, "seconds": 5939.0, "expectedMinutes": 9.898333333333333, "projectedAttempts": 1.0, "onNet": 0.4893134513824169, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0746220725282403, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9781562079210157 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 4.0, "sog": 3.0, "seconds": 987.0, "expectedMinutes": 1.8320933263816477, "projectedAttempts": 0.4454938179651423, "onNet": 0.5375888596747492, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.9168292330239027, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.01563999232393 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.4871704894066083, "ppAdjusted": 0.27768018802757527, "other": 0.2 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.9648506774341836, "baseline": 1.75, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 4, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8484999", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.2789104064605104, "adjustedSOG": 1.258749082119007, "reductionPct": 1.5764454053745158, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.4871704894066083, "afterPlayerForm": 0.4871704894066083, "afterRecentDefense": 0.46119815174401735, "afterRecentZones": 0.4871704894066083, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.46119815174401735, "adjusted": 0.46119815174401735, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9466873748977975, "oldChartFactor": 1.1275501613243568, "newChartFactor": 1.1275501613243568, "playerRecentAttempts": 8.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 49.5, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.59973063973064, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7478946195976414, "defenseRecentMinutes": 238.86666666666667, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.27768018802757527, "afterPlayerForm": 0.27005031845432736, "afterRecentDefense": 0.27768018802757527, "afterRecentZones": 0.27768018802757527, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.27768018802757527, "adjusted": 0.27005031845432736, "playerFactor": 0.972522816166884, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.9835026232382096, "newChartFactor": 0.9835026232382096, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 10.566666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.778391167192429, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.443486791395137, "defenseRecentMinutes": 21.3, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.258749082119007, "adjustedSOG": 1.258749082119007, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 83, "beforeSOG": 1.258749082119007, "adjustedSOG": 1.258749082119007 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 15.0, "goalExpected": 0.11216356388577314, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.11613963913995404, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.10610196389385697, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.35471493216781697 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12851620368341238, "modelSOG": 1.258749082119007, "historyGames": 14, "seasonGames": { "2025": 4, "2026": 10 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 16.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.125, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1280312100719072, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 48.16666666666667, "btb": { "id": "8484999", "name": "Ilya Protas", "score": 48.16666666666667, "components": { "Goal model": 52.142857142857146, "SOG model": 41.42857142857143, "Unit attack": 40.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 41.666666666666664, "Shot quality": 50.0, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.32383253281599, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Ovechkin", "Ilya Protas", "Anthony Beauvillier" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 70 } }, { "id": "8485406", "name": "Porter Martone", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "position": "L", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.1428571428571428, "priorSOG": 3.5555555555555554, "currentTOI": 14.014285714285714, "currentFiveTOI": 11.16547619047619, "ppShare": 0.4900024090580583, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 9, "currentTotalSOG": 16.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.4214285714285713, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.14 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.048, "currentIXG": 0.1462857142857143, "priorTOI": 17.04074074074074, "priorPPTOI": 2.1037037037037036, "deploymentChange": -3.026455026455027, "ppTOIChange": 0.31772486772486763, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.9 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 5.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 28.4, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.0, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "goalShootingPct": 0.1341273121394475, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 48.0, "goalExpected": 0.27411712105515135, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.27411712105515135, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2397569704193741, "goalProbability": 0.2397569704193741, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261011", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 2.0437084489560284, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 2.6868536091267727, "Current_PP_SOG60": 15.929203539823009, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.16547619047619, "Current_PP_Share": 0.4900024090580583, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 5.226666666666667, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.561079258010118, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0318794411137646, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.03591927762545, "Position_Factor": 0.9933397555142174, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2034.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 4151.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": 10.751850409037788, "Prior_PP_SOG60": 15.845070422535212, "Prior_5v5_Min": 14.261111111111111, "Prior_PP_Share": 0.4940534531552975, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9915590863952334, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0510689857570272, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.0421970032556025, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 2.4393549261417538, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 19.399538106235564, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 5.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "venue": "away", "sog": 5.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 6.0, "toi": 16.9 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T14:22:52.368Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 15, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": 1.7022995252342383, "index": 101.70229952523424, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 20.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.633315053999752, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 14.153846153846155, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.348148538727159, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 33.23076923076923, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.955146625874619, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 6 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.153846153846155, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.4981269491636766, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 4 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 0.2419862295060824, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 7 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.73512635926626, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 10, "fitPct": 8.680540185330443, "index": 108.68054018533044, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0083167508570057, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 9.336585937799157, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 36.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -8.40885447822049, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 14.91357074264252, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 5 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 14.000000000000002, "opponentDeltaPct": 30.363874472632546, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -32.66671435711565, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 1.7022995252342383, "zonePPFit": 8.680540185330443, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.303020929958324, "attemptProjection": 1.4545790008908415, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 26.0, "sog": 7.0, "seconds": 9379.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.16547619047619, "projectedAttempts": 1.857142857142857, "onNet": 0.4202853434819972, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0664173006085407, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9910712354646697 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2034.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.561079258010118, "projectedAttempts": 0.9821247892074199, "onNet": 0.5774438879614171, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9654244719011558 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.6730185372937069, "ppAdjusted": 0.7057814281308759, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.3787999654245828, "baseline": 3.5555555555555554, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": 9, "modelWeight": 0.6, "baselineWeight": 0.4, "applied": true, "reason": null }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 98.0, "goalsAgainst": 11.0, "savePct": 0.8877551020408163, "gaa": 2.768262845159035, "gsax": 1.4940000000000007, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3595.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.071 }, { "gameId": "2025021026", "date": "20260311", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 21.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3510.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.668 }, { "gameId": "2025020911", "date": "20260225", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.653 }, { "gameId": "2024020108", "date": "20241023", "goalieTeam": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "shotsAgainst": 29.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 4.102 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8480313", "goalieName": "Logan Thompson", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8485406", "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 5, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021184", "date": "20260331", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 5, "attempts": 5 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 2.249502201476972, "adjustedSOG": 2.242383639407536, "reductionPct": 0.3164505491375924, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.6730185372937069, "afterPlayerForm": 0.6730185372937069, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6730185372937069, "afterRecentZones": 0.6730185372937069, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6730185372937069, "adjusted": 0.6730185372937069, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0510689857570272, "newChartFactor": 1.0510689857570272, "playerRecentAttempts": 11.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 56.95, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.1612638166632898, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.1686511240632804, "defenseRecentMinutes": 240.2, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.7057814281308759, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7057814281308759, "afterRecentDefense": 0.6939171580151496, "afterRecentZones": 0.7057814281308759, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.6939171580151497, "adjusted": 0.6939171580151497, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9831898805453887, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 9.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 16.133333333333333, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.4547043865225684, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8705596333116542, "defenseRecentMinutes": 22.9, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 2.242383639407536, "adjustedSOG": 2.197535966619385, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": true, "applied": true, "factor": 0.93, "preAdjustmentRank": 28, "beforeSOG": 2.197535966619385, "adjustedSOG": 2.0437084489560284 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 7.0, "goalHistoryShots": 46.0, "goalExpected": 0.29083646108655625, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2876092312031394, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2523620640834543, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.24166970096765605 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285084219663823, "modelSOG": 2.0437084489560284, "historyGames": 23, "seasonGames": { "2025": 9, "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 48.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.14583333333333334, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.1341273121394475, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 62.706753246753244, "btb": { "id": "8485406", "name": "Porter Martone", "score": 62.706753246753244, "components": { "Goal model": 84.28571428571429, "SOG model": 74.28571428571429, "Unit attack": 50.0, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 100.0, "Shot quality": 43.57142857142857, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 51.85454545454545, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.434890517352242, "unitPlayers": [ "Porter Martone", "Noah Cates", "Matvei Michkov" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 5, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 28 } }, { "id": "8486067", "name": "Gavin McKenna", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "position": "L", "currentGP": 14, "currentSOG": 1.6428571428571428, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 13.645238095238096, "currentFiveTOI": 10.902380952380952, "ppShare": 0.493368700265252, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 1", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 23.0, "currentPPTOI": 2.2142857142857144, "volumeNote": "Observed 1.64 SOG/game in 14 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 14 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.664, "currentIXG": 0.1902857142857143, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "SEA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 383.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 31.916666666666668, "mostAllowedRank": 2, "fiveSogAllowed60": 30.18384401114206, "pkSogAllowed60": 56.6410537870472, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 49.416666666666664, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 77.0, "C": 122.0, "D": 108.0, "R": 76.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.166666666666666, "L": 6.416666666666667, "R": 6.333333333333333, "D": 9.0 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 33.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 31.6, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "oppPosSogAllowed": 6.416666666666667, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.12887424687417504, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 23.0, "goalExpected": 0.2006630311534136, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.2006630311534136, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1818119109960931, "goalProbability": 0.1818119109960931, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 14, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.5570452283560483, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 5.896483948460363, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.612903225806452, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.902380952380952, "Current_PP_Share": 0.493368700265252, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.141964285714286, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 2.04351553618795, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.14285714285714285, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.0975402471252484, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.0878233035005431, "Position_Factor": 1.0110574188607588, "Input_GP": 14, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 1860.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3770.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.1427281754987813, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.085858585858586, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.0967855158647595, "Chart_PP_Factor": 1.25, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 1.15, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 6.374284935984745, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 11.787819253438114, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Gavin McKenna", "Auston Matthews", "Jack Roslovic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": false, "goalRoleUnavailable": "Reported PP opportunity updated, but required historical goal-model inputs are unavailable. No goal estimate imputed.", "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "L", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/toronto-maple-leafs/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T18:40:53.123Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 20, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 3.226183862158649, "index": 103.22618386215865, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.0519345279382, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 35.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.46941604963608086, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.5782687206217645, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 16.36345691597269, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 20.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.44327262549903423, "currentAttempts": 4, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 5.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 26.00919871301481, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 10, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 8.467367843693467, "index": 108.46736784369347, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.758261309340554, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -4.291626051272573, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 30.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.695649690009219, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 10.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.4348675728002576, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 50.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 11.052667126073331, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 51.052010817431466, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 3.226183862158649, "zonePPFit": 8.467367843693467, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8298470064418337, "attemptProjection": 1.5439835012465177, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 21.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 9158.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.902380952380952, "projectedAttempts": 1.5, "onNet": 0.562558959220166, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9847258118283436 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 11.0, "sog": 6.0, "seconds": 1860.0, "expectedMinutes": 2.04351553618795, "projectedAttempts": 0.7251184160666918, "onNet": 0.5471961465831029, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.15, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9764083342520119 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.093867386315649, "ppAdjusted": 0.450190724671384, "other": 0.14285714285714285 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.6869152538441758, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 0, "availableGames": 0, "shotsAgainst": null, "goalsAgainst": null, "savePct": null, "gaa": null, "gsax": null, "log": [], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "No appearance found in the supplied historical files; this does not establish that the goalie has never faced the team." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475831", "goalieName": "Philipp Grubauer", "starterStatus": "Likely", "shooterId": "8486067", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.6869152538441758, "adjustedSOG": 1.5888216615878044, "reductionPct": 5.8149685962489155, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.093867386315649, "afterPlayerForm": 0.9957737940592775, "afterRecentDefense": 1.093867386315649, "afterRecentZones": 1.093867386315649, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.093867386315649, "adjusted": 0.9957737940592775, "playerFactor": 0.910324054374846, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.0967855158647595, "newChartFactor": 1.0967855158647595, "playerRecentAttempts": 2.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 46.31666666666667, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.3138504772185952, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4848349487486736, "defenseRecentMinutes": 247.43333333333334, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.450190724671384, "afterPlayerForm": 0.450190724671384, "afterRecentDefense": 0.450190724671384, "afterRecentZones": 0.450190724671384, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.450190724671384, "adjusted": 0.450190724671384, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 1.25, "newChartFactor": 1.25, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 12.933333333333334, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.3074039362699157, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.2263734977368503, "defenseRecentMinutes": 19.866666666666667, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": true, "factor": 0.98, "applied": true, "beforeSOG": 1.5888216615878044, "adjustedSOG": 1.5570452283560483, "reductionPct": 2.0000000000000018, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 61, "beforeSOG": 1.5570452283560483, "adjustedSOG": 1.5570452283560483 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 3.0, "goalHistoryShots": 22.0, "goalExpected": 0.21280786445254152, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.21037084389523933, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.1916885723437265, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.19722738257070827 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285153236552353, "modelSOG": 1.5570452283560483, "historyGames": 14, "seasonGames": { "2026": 14 }, "historyGoals": 3.0, "historyShots": 23.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.13043478260869565, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.12887424687417504, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 50.654761904761905, "btb": { "id": "8486067", "name": "Gavin McKenna", "score": 50.654761904761905, "components": { "Goal model": 64.28571428571429, "SOG model": 57.142857142857146, "Unit attack": 56.666666666666664, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 4.166666666666667, "Shot quality": 63.57142857142857, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.4823855602987623, "unitPlayers": [ "Gavin McKenna", "Auston Matthews", "Jack Roslovic" ], "goalieStatus": "Likely", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 61 } }, { "id": "8486161", "name": "Owen Michaels", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "position": "C", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 0.75, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 13.109722222222222, "currentFiveTOI": 11.6625, "ppShare": 0.022331786542923435, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-27T19:23:59.585Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 9.0, "currentPPTOI": 0.10694444444444445, "volumeNote": "Observed 0.75 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 0.453, "currentIXG": 0.03775, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [], "h2hGames": 0, "h2hAvailableGames": 0, "h2hSOG": null, "opponentDefense": { "team": "CGY", "games": 11, "sogAllowedTotal": 331.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.09090909090909, "mostAllowedRank": 7, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.90306519371402, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.028461310406165, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.09090909090909, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 87.0, "L": 61.0, "R": 67.0, "C": 116.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.545454545454545, "L": 5.545454545454546, "R": 6.090909090909091, "D": 7.909090909090909 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 32.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "oppPosSogAllowed": 10.545454545454545, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.13624616356532585, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 9.0, "goalExpected": 0.09515926843780784, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.09359198787446281, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.09077188840526351, "goalProbability": 0.08934575557510707, "goalAdjustmentPP": -0.14261328301564402, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 0.6984363151787528, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 3.8585209003215435, "Current_PP_SOG60": 0.0, "Current_5v5_Min": 11.6625, "Current_PP_Share": 0.022331786542923435, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.949747474747475, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 0.1105367040474349, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.0, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 1.066499103268604, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 1.001249528297157, "Position_Factor": 1.0024035877344022, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 77.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3448.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 1.0631045012585125, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 9.41161616161616, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 1.2215174882005655, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.75, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 1.15, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.85, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 4.547607768829939, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 0, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Alex Formenton", "Owen Michaels", "Trent Frederic" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "C", "projectedPosition": "C", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/edmonton-oilers/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": 7.383916273352185, "index": 107.38391627335218, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 27.27272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": 4.445181040891242, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.9447100203166485, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 9.090909090909092, "opponentDeltaPct": 3.826508081986063, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 18.181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": 1.8528584844291913, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 27.27272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.865061506208562, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 18.181818181818183, "opponentDeltaPct": 13.8800631573651, "currentAttempts": 2, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -11.034372183793991, "index": 88.96562781620601, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 12.40520888347146, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 100.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -11.034372183793991, "currentAttempts": 1, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 7.379000210162317, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 8.92622366322702, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -22.131173757278404, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 37.1635538917096, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 7.383916273352185, "zonePPFit": -11.034372183793991, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 0.8624999999999999, "attemptProjection": 0.6799517306881039, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 13.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 8397.0, "expectedMinutes": 11.6625, "projectedAttempts": 1.0833333333333333, "onNet": 0.5453778902054764, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0584126769727031, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.013890396255403 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 1.0, "sog": 0.0, "seconds": 77.0, "expectedMinutes": 0.1105367040474349, "projectedAttempts": 0.08613249666033888, "onNet": 0.5103882043614991, "opponentAttemptFactor": 1.0137990240358483, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0305184059897456 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 0.7482619841681091, "ppAdjusted": 0.022963881175942783, "other": 0.0 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 0.7712258653440519, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 1, "availableGames": 1, "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "savePct": 0.9230769230769231, "gaa": 3.0033370411568407, "gsax": 0.5859999999999999, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020900", "date": "20260204", "goalieTeam": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "shotsAgainst": 39.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3596.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.586 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8482445", "goalieName": "Devin Cooley", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8486161", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 0.7712258653440519, "adjustedSOG": 0.6984363151787528, "reductionPct": 9.438162467855882, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 0.7482619841681091, "afterPlayerForm": 0.7002613357865217, "afterRecentDefense": 0.7217738833889977, "afterRecentZones": 0.7482619841681091, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.7217738833889977, "adjusted": 0.67547243400281, "playerFactor": 0.9358504783121478, "defenseFactor": 0.9646004991038535, "oldChartFactor": 1.2215174882005655, "newChartFactor": 1.2215174882005655, "playerRecentAttempts": 3.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 57.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.562650763870276, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.8317397001751148, "defenseRecentMinutes": 234.76666666666668, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.022963881175942783, "afterPlayerForm": 0.022963881175942783, "afterRecentDefense": 0.022963881175942783, "afterRecentZones": 0.022963881175942783, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.022963881175942783, "adjusted": 0.022963881175942783, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 1, "oldChartFactor": 0.75, "newChartFactor": 0.75, "playerRecentAttempts": 1.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 0.55, "playerRecentRateRatio": 2.333333333333333, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 1.4954856912535268, "defenseRecentMinutes": 27.566666666666666, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 0.6984363151787528, "adjustedSOG": 0.6984363151787528, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 135, "beforeSOG": 0.6984363151787528, "adjustedSOG": 0.6984363151787528 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 8.0, "goalExpected": 0.07703966637817103, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.07705740614457962, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.0741468723621846, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0016424272531151418 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12850831828620515, "modelSOG": 0.6984363151787528, "historyGames": 12, "seasonGames": { "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 9.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.2222222222222222, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.13624616356532585, "goalieFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 26.93073593073593, "btb": { "id": "8486161", "name": "Owen Michaels", "score": 26.93073593073593, "components": { "Goal model": 26.428571428571427, "SOG model": 4.285714285714286, "Unit attack": 3.3333333333333335, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 6.428571428571429, "Goalie": 29.545454545454547, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 1.7113960462604823, "unitPlayers": [ "Alex Formenton", "Owen Michaels", "Trent Frederic" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 0, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 140 } }, { "id": "8486171", "name": "T.J. Hughes", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "position": "R", "currentGP": 12, "currentSOG": 2.1666666666666665, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": 14.909722222222221, "currentFiveTOI": 10.694444444444445, "ppShare": 0.71841059602649, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 3", "ppUnit": "PP1 · reported, unconfirmed", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": null, "currentTotalSOG": 26.0, "currentPPTOI": 3.766666666666667, "volumeNote": "Observed 2.17 SOG/game in 12 games.", "sampleNote": "Current sample: 12 games. Conditional on dressing; final lineup pending.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": 2.772, "currentIXG": 0.23099999999999998, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "NJD", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 282.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 23.5, "mostAllowedRank": 30, "fiveSogAllowed60": 22.7, "pkSogAllowed60": 45.82743988684583, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 77.0, "R": 61.0, "L": 56.0, "C": 88.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.333333333333333, "L": 4.666666666666667, "R": 5.083333333333333, "D": 6.416666666666667 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 21.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 4, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 25.5, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionSourceDifference": 0.0 }, "oppSogAllowed": 23.5, "oppPosSogAllowed": 5.083333333333333, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": 0.11787894461539362, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 26.0, "goalExpected": 0.2020386656764082, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.209133256464507, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.18293666497505726, "goalProbability": 0.18871288081323986, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.5776215838182608, "recentlyDressed": true, "lastTeamGameDate": "20261010", "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 12, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": 1.7139504118874196, "trialInputs": { "Current_5v5_SOG60": 7.012987012987013, "Current_PP_SOG60": 11.946902654867257, "Current_5v5_Min": 10.694444444444445, "Current_PP_Share": 0.71841059602649, "Expected_Team_PP_Min": 4.585416666666666, "Expected_Player_PP_Min": 3.294211920529801, "Remaining_State_SOG": 0.16666666666666666, "Opponent_5v5_Factor": 0.9364913846710519, "Opponent_PK_Factor": 0.9785986047389867, "Position_Factor": 1.0107821850719034, "Input_GP": 12, "Stats_Through": "2026-10-27", "Current_PP_Player_Seconds": 2712.0, "Current_PP_Matched_Team_Seconds": 3775.0, "Prior_5v5_SOG60": null, "Prior_PP_SOG60": null, "Prior_5v5_Min": null, "Prior_PP_Share": null, "Model_Version": "current-position-chart-combined15-v1", "Opponent_Position_Factor": 0.9603031698840081, "Position_League_SOG_Per_Game": 5.482323232323233, "Chart_5v5_Factor": 0.904218883422788, "Chart_PP_Factor": 0.9290418146690093, "Combined_5v5_Factor": 0.8683242600198817, "Combined_PP_Factor": 0.9091590235792688, "Five_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "PP_Rate_Current_Weight": 1, "Blended_5v5_SOG60": 7.281132620629876, "Blended_PP_SOG60": 13.213703099510603, "Shot_Chart_Stats_Through": "2026-10-27" }, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2026", "label": "2026–27", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 3.0, "toi": 15.683333333333334 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Nazem Kadri", "T.J. Hughes" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": "2026-10-27", "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "R", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "ppSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/colorado-avalanche/line-combinations", "ppSourceDate": "2026-10-28T17:25:26.172Z", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 24, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -3.192703885907065, "index": 96.80729611409294, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.23566868880091363, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 20.833333333333336, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.0675768471499936, "currentAttempts": 5, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 25.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -2.8139390638649076, "currentAttempts": 6, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -9.597737106032909, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 29.166666666666668, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.141337501432147, "currentAttempts": 7, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -1.0926472113005872, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 11, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": -2.365272844366359, "index": 97.63472715563364, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -6.960022095323765, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 27.27272727272727, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.1590643804079832, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 72.72727272727273, "opponentDeltaPct": -3.192601018350743, "currentAttempts": 8, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 5.939172125610597, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.674751114086661, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -34.23947798786446, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 1, "playerPriorWeight": 0, "currentSeasonOnly": true }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": -3.192703885907065, "zonePPFit": -2.365272844366359, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "sogBlend": { "version": "sog-current-attempts-5050-v1", "previousProjection": 1.8484140810319738, "attemptProjection": 1.7880537775881882, "currentWeight": 0.5, "attemptWeight": 0.5, "statsThrough": "20261027", "details": [ { "state": "5on5", "attempts": 33.0, "sog": 15.0, "seconds": 7700.0, "expectedMinutes": 10.694444444444445, "projectedAttempts": 2.7500000000000004, "onNet": 0.4831594386353214, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.8916545535845379, "opponentBlockFactor": 0.9819624396739732 }, { "state": "5on4", "attempts": 12.0, "sog": 9.0, "seconds": 2712.0, "expectedMinutes": 3.294211920529801, "projectedAttempts": 0.8745695364238408, "onNet": 0.5563770400988622, "opponentAttemptFactor": 0.935869768699559, "opponentBlockFactor": 1.0057981741919566 } ], "fiveAdjusted": 1.124383389212222, "ppAdjusted": 0.5271838734311923, "other": 0.16666666666666666 }, "sogShrinkage": { "version": "sog-blend-player-mean-6040-v1", "baseProjection": 1.818233929310081, "baseline": null, "baselineSeason": "2025–26", "baselineGames": null, "modelWeight": 1, "baselineWeight": 0, "applied": false, "reason": "No saved prior-season player average; existing projection retained." }, "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "availableGames": 4, "shotsAgainst": 118.0, "goalsAgainst": 14.0, "savePct": 0.8813559322033898, "gaa": 3.5405690200210747, "gsax": -4.288, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 34.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3600.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.234 }, { "gameId": "2025020140", "date": "20251026", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 24.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3713.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.312 }, { "gameId": "2024020931", "date": "20250226", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 37.0, "goalsAgainst": 5.0, "seconds": 3498.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.718 }, { "gameId": "2024020440", "date": "20241208", "goalieTeam": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "shotsAgainst": 23.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3424.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.448 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8474596", "goalieName": "Jake Allen", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8486171", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 2, "log": [ { "gameId": "2026020142", "date": "20261020", "season": 2026, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 2 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": true, "baselineSOG": 1.818233929310081, "adjustedSOG": 1.7139504118874196, "reductionPct": 5.735429074422305, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "reason": null, "parts": [ { "state": "5on5", "baseline": 1.124383389212222, "afterPlayerForm": 1.0812192297086605, "afterRecentDefense": 1.0857569171768096, "afterRecentZones": 1.1199742958966663, "afterDefenseAndZones": 1.0857569171768096, "adjusted": 1.0440755963704336, "playerFactor": 0.9616108171663728, "defenseFactor": 0.9354553867176352, "oldChartFactor": 0.904218883422788, "newChartFactor": 0.8968727144980921, "playerRecentAttempts": 10.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 53.4, "playerRecentRateRatio": 0.7282563462338743, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.7016323446514028, "defenseRecentMinutes": 258.53333333333336, "zoneNote": null }, { "state": "5on4", "baseline": 0.5271838734311923, "afterPlayerForm": 0.5271838734311923, "afterRecentDefense": 0.5032081488503195, "afterRecentZones": 0.5271838734311923, "afterDefenseAndZones": 0.5032081488503194, "adjusted": 0.5032081488503194, "playerFactor": 1, "defenseFactor": 0.9545211342964152, "oldChartFactor": 0.9290418146690093, "newChartFactor": 0.9290418146690093, "playerRecentAttempts": 6.0, "playerRecentMinutes": 17.266666666666666, "playerRecentRateRatio": 1.308880308880309, "defenseRecentRateRatio": 0.4540783558124598, "defenseRecentMinutes": 11.533333333333333, "zoneNote": null } ] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": 1.7139504118874196, "adjustedSOG": 1.7139504118874196, "reductionPct": 0.0, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": 52, "beforeSOG": 1.7139504118874196, "adjustedSOG": 1.7139504118874196 }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": 2.0, "goalHistoryShots": 25.0, "goalExpected": 0.251623780083806, "goalExpectedAdjusted": 0.251623780083806, "goalBaselineProbability": 0.2224627919677725, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": 0.0 }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.12852747021539596, "modelSOG": 1.7139504118874196, "historyGames": 12, "seasonGames": { "2026": 12 }, "historyGoals": 2.0, "historyShots": 26.0, "reason": null, "rawShootingPct": 0.07692307692307693, "adjustedShootingPct": 0.11787894461539362, "goalieFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "confidence": "Low" }, "btbScore": 59.1488260189423, "btb": { "id": "8486171", "name": "T.J. Hughes", "score": 59.1488260189423, "components": { "Goal model": 65.0, "SOG model": 63.57142857142857, "Unit attack": 53.333333333333336, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 58.333333333333336, "Shot quality": 72.85714285714286, "Goalie": 69.88636363636364, "Team H2H": 50.25454545454546, "Goalie H2H": 49.910554561717355 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.462614241278381, "unitPlayers": [ "Jaden Schwartz", "Nazem Kadri", "T.J. Hughes" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": true, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 39 } }, { "id": "8483497", "name": "Jani Nyman", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "position": "L", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": null, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Line 2", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-26T18:05:50.674Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 28.0, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": null, "priorPPTOI": null, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.383333333333333 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 2.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "TOR", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 423.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.214285714285715, "mostAllowedRank": 5, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.49274283587644, "pkSogAllowed60": 44.14469650521153, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 46.5, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 129.0, "R": 65.0, "C": 160.0, "L": 69.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 11.428571428571429, "L": 4.928571428571429, "R": 4.642857142857143, "D": 9.214285714285714 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 31.8, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 34.5, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "oppPosSogAllowed": 4.928571428571429, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 2.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020079", "date": "20251018", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "venue": "away", "sog": 2.0, "goals": 1.0, "attempts": 2.0, "toi": 13.383333333333333 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Jani Nyman", "Chandler Stephenson", "Mackie Samoskevich" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": null, "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "R", "projectedPosition": "L", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/seattle-kraken/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 44, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 12, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": null, "zonePPFit": null, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available 2026-10-27 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 67.0, "goalsAgainst": 7.0, "savePct": 0.8955223880597015, "gaa": 2.244988864142539, "gsax": -0.2120000000000004, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021123", "date": "20260324", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 4.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 3.203 }, { "gameId": "2024020896", "date": "20250222", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 22.0, "goalsAgainst": 2.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.078 }, { "gameId": "2024020456", "date": "20241210", "goalieTeam": "FLA", "opponent": "SEA", "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "goalsAgainst": 1.0, "seconds": 3900.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.507 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8475683", "goalieName": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "shooterId": "8483497", "goals": null, "sog": null, "shootingPct": null, "gamesWithAttempts": 0, "recordedAttempts": 0, "log": [], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "No matching unblocked shot event found in the supplied files; unavailable is not a zero scoring rate. Shotless and blocked-shot-only appearances are not established.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "F", "positionalBaseline": 0.1285163100666433, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 40, "seasonGames": { "2024": 12, "2025": 28 }, "historyGoals": 7.0, "historyShots": 55.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "btbScore": 42.27651515151515, "btb": { "id": "8483497", "name": "Jani Nyman", "score": 42.27651515151515, "components": { "Goal model": 50, "SOG model": 50, "Unit attack": 23.333333333333332, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 50, "Goalie": 49.43181818181818, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player model inputs incomplete; missing values scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Player-goalie H2H unavailable; neutral", "Individual xG unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "line", "unitAttackXGF60": 2.211231664385414, "unitPlayers": [ "Jani Nyman", "Chandler Stephenson", "Mackie Samoskevich" ], "goalieStatus": "Confirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": null, "modelAvailable": false, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 89 } }, { "id": "8481030", "name": "Jack St. Ivany", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "position": "D", "currentGP": 0, "currentSOG": null, "priorSOG": 0.85, "currentTOI": null, "currentFiveTOI": null, "ppShare": null, "rate": null, "fifty": null, "inputs": null, "status": "Projected lineup", "projected": true, "line": "Defense pair 3", "ppUnit": "Not on reported PP units", "lineupSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "lineupSourceDate": "2026-10-28T16:52:46.337Z", "lineupsCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "priorGP": 20, "currentTotalSOG": null, "currentPPTOI": null, "volumeNote": "No current-season appearances in the complete supplied snapshot.", "sampleNote": "Projection unavailable until current-season inputs are available.", "availability": "Reported October 28 lineup; final dressing list and unit deployment unconfirmed.", "currentIXGTotal": null, "currentIXG": null, "priorTOI": 16.325833333333332, "priorPPTOI": 0.004166666666666667, "deploymentChange": null, "ppTOIChange": null, "h2hLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020741", "date": "20260115", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 } ], "h2hGames": 1, "h2hAvailableGames": 1, "h2hSOG": 0.0, "opponentDefense": { "team": "PHI", "games": 14, "sogAllowedTotal": 424.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 30.285714285714285, "mostAllowedRank": 4, "fiveSogAllowed60": 28.772835583796663, "pkSogAllowed60": 48.786407766990294, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.785714285714285, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 117.0, "C": 143.0, "R": 85.0, "L": 79.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.214285714285714, "L": 5.642857142857143, "R": 6.071428571428571, "D": 8.357142857142858 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 24.2, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 6, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.0, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "oppSogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "oppPosSogAllowed": 8.357142857142858, "opposingGoalie": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null, "recentlyDressed": false, "currentAllStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "currentIXGGP": 0, "currentIXGStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "ppStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "trial": null, "trialInputs": null, "h2hSeasonSummary": [ { "season": "2025", "label": "2025–26", "games": 1, "sogPerGame": 0.0 } ], "h2hWindow": "Last five available meetings when at least five exist; last three for 3–4; actual sample below three. MoneyPuck 2024–25, 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular-season appearances through 2026-10-27; zero-SOG appearances with positive ice time included; follows the player across teams.", "h2hFullLog": [ { "gameId": "2025020741", "date": "20260115", "team": "PIT", "opponent": "PHI", "venue": "home", "sog": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "attempts": 1.0, "toi": 16.533333333333335 } ], "boardEligible": true, "lineMates": [ "Cole Hutson", "Jack St. Ivany" ], "lineupSource": "Daily Faceoff reported chart", "isHome": true, "h2hStatsThrough": "2026-10-27", "modelInputCoverage": { "individual": null, "positionalDefense": "2026-10-27", "teamEnvironment": "2026-10-27", "shotChart": "2026-10-27", "goalie": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupSourceConflict": "NHL game-specific even-strength projection used where DFO chart differs; DFO PP units retained. Final warmup units pending.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "opponentDataPending": false, "rosterPosition": "D", "projectedPosition": "D", "positionStatus": "Reported chart role · unconfirmed", "positionSourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/washington-capitals/line-combinations", "positionCheckedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "zoneFit": { "five": { "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 26, "fitPct": 2.3144845067712225, "index": 102.31448450677122, "zones": [ { "name": "Point", "playerSharePct": 90.76923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": 2.4946946350469688, "currentAttempts": 3, "priorAttempts": 20 }, { "name": "High slot", "playerSharePct": 1.5384615384615385, "opponentDeltaPct": 6.138553993210465, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 1 }, { "name": "Slot / net front", "playerSharePct": 3.076923076923077, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.2974581522634878, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 2 }, { "name": "Left circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": 10.26566828244917, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 }, { "name": "Right circle / flank", "playerSharePct": 4.615384615384617, "opponentDeltaPct": -0.7630427387749705, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 3 }, { "name": "Other / behind net", "playerSharePct": 0.0, "opponentDeltaPct": -16.93308507544326, "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0 } ], "reason": null, "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "pp": { "currentAttempts": 0, "priorAttempts": 0, "fitPct": null, "index": null, "zones": [], "reason": "No current-season unblocked attempts recorded in this strength through 2026-10-27. Zero attempts is distinct from a missing forecast.", "playerCurrentWeight": 0.6, "playerPriorWeight": 0.4, "currentSeasonOnly": false }, "currentWeight": 0.6, "priorWeight": 0.4, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "priorSeason": "2025–26", "currentSeason": "2026–27", "priorGames": 10 }, "zoneFiveFit": 2.3144845067712225, "zonePPFit": null, "reason": "No current-season shooting inputs in the available 2026-10-27 snapshot. Forecast unavailable; no estimate imputed.", "goalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 3, "availableGames": 3, "shotsAgainst": 77.0, "goalsAgainst": 9.0, "savePct": 0.8831168831168831, "gaa": 3.0274715006540833, "gsax": -2.003, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025021245", "date": "20260408", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 17.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3425.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 1.738 }, { "gameId": "2025020386", "date": "20251128", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 33.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3503.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.729 }, { "gameId": "2024020253", "date": "20241113", "goalieTeam": "TOR", "opponent": "WSH", "shotsAgainst": 27.0, "goalsAgainst": 3.0, "seconds": 3774.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 2.53 } ], "window": "Last five available 2024–2026 regular-season goalie appearances; relief appearances included.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "historicalCoverage": "MoneyPuck saved game-by-game goalie logs; not independently established as career-complete.", "source": "MoneyPuck game-by-game goalie data", "coverageNote": "Observed appearances only; includes relief appearances." }, "playerGoalieH2H": { "goalieId": "8479361", "goalieName": "Joseph Woll", "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "shooterId": "8481030", "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "shootingPct": 0.0, "gamesWithAttempts": 1, "recordedAttempts": 3, "log": [ { "gameId": "2025020575", "date": "20251223", "season": 2025, "goals": 0, "sog": 2, "attempts": 3 } ], "sourceSeasons": [ 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ], "window": "2025–26 through 2026–27, regular-season MoneyPuck shot events through 2026-10-27; excludes playoffs, shootouts and empty nets; blocked shots are not included in the shot files.", "coverageNote": "Observed unblocked shot events only; shotless appearances are not established, and the saved window is not career-complete.", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, "lineupConfirmation": "Latest reported chart; final October28 dressing and deployment pending.", "ppRoleNote": "Reported units; final deployment unconfirmed.", "performancePenalty": { "version": "sog-recent-form-defense-zones-capped-v1", "applied": false, "baselineSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "reason": "Model SOG unavailable", "parts": [] }, "awayAdjustment": { "version": "away-sog-goal-intensity-098-v1", "isAway": false, "factor": 1.0, "applied": false, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null, "reductionPct": null, "goalTreatment": "Goal intensity uses this adjusted Model SOG once; no second goals multiplier. Scoring probability is recalculated from intensity." }, "topSOGAdjustment": { "version": "sog-top30-093-v1", "selected": false, "applied": false, "factor": 1, "preAdjustmentRank": null, "beforeSOG": null, "adjustedSOG": null }, "goalModelPrevious": { "goalShootingPct": null, "goalHistoryGoals": null, "goalHistoryShots": null, "goalExpected": null, "goalExpectedAdjusted": null, "goalBaselineProbability": null, "goalProbability": null, "goalAdjustmentPP": null }, "goalModel": { "version": "goal-current-sog-history-position-prior100-v1", "priorShots": 100, "historyWindow": [ "2024", "2025", "2026" ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "positionGroup": "D", "positionalBaseline": 0.057859516547548596, "modelSOG": null, "historyGames": 43, "seasonGames": { "2024": 19, "2025": 20, "2026": 4 }, "historyGoals": 0.0, "historyShots": 30.0, "reason": "Model SOG or dated shooting history/position baseline unavailable", "rawShootingPct": null, "adjustedShootingPct": null, "goalieFactor": 1, "confidence": "Unavailable" }, "btbScore": 49.130434782608695, "btb": { "id": "8481030", "name": "Jack St. Ivany", "score": 49.130434782608695, "components": { "Goal model": 50, "SOG model": 50, "Unit attack": 91.30434782608695, "Opposing lines": 50, "Opposing pairs": 50, "PP": 0, "Shot quality": 50, "Goalie": 50, "Team H2H": 50.0, "Goalie H2H": 50.0 }, "weights": { "Goal model": 0.2, "SOG model": 0.05, "Unit attack": 0.1, "Opposing lines": 0.05, "Opposing pairs": 0.05, "PP": 0.1, "Shot quality": 0.1, "Goalie": 0.1, "Team H2H": 0.15, "Goalie H2H": 0.1 }, "missing": [ "Player model inputs incomplete; missing values scored neutral", "Opposing lines: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing pairs: Opposing-unit score unavailable; neutral", "Opposing starter unconfirmed or goalie sample unavailable; goalie context and player-goalie H2H neutral", "Team H2H unavailable; neutral", "Individual xG unavailable; neutral" ], "exposure": { "forward": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 }, "pair": { "available": false, "reason": "Opposing-unit score unavailable", "score": 50 } }, "unitKind": "pair", "unitAttackXGF60": 3.181815657945582, "unitPlayers": [ "Cole Hutson", "Jack St. Ivany" ], "goalieStatus": "Unconfirmed", "h2hGames": 1, "goalieH2HShots": 2, "modelAvailable": false, "version": "btb-goal-h2h-pp-observed-v3", "rank": 64 } } ], "games": [ { "away": "PHI", "home": "WSH", "awayName": "Philadelphia Flyers", "homeName": "Washington Capitals", "date": "2026-10-28T23:30Z", "eventId": "401892596" }, { "away": "CGY", "home": "EDM", "awayName": "Calgary Flames", "homeName": "Edmonton Oilers", "date": "2026-10-29T00:30Z", "eventId": "401892597" }, { "away": "NJD", "home": "COL", "awayName": "New Jersey Devils", "homeName": "Colorado Avalanche", "date": "2026-10-29T01:00Z", "eventId": "401892598" }, { "away": "TOR", "home": "SEA", "awayName": "Toronto Maple Leafs", "homeName": "Seattle Kraken", "date": "2026-10-29T02:00Z", "eventId": "401892599" } ], "teamStats": [ { "id": "PHI", "name": "PHI", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 14.0, "sogFor": 23.214285714285715, "sogAllowed": 30.285714285714285, "xgFor": 2.556928571428571, "xgAllowed": 3.523, "fiveAllowed": 28.772835583796663, "pkAllowed": 48.786407766990294, "ppMinutes": 4.941666666666667, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "WSH", "name": "WSH", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 10.0, "sogFor": 27.5, "sogAllowed": 28.4, "xgFor": 3.5647999999999995, "xgAllowed": 3.6826, "fiveAllowed": 27.316447579352356, "pkAllowed": 51.1641971575446, "ppMinutes": 4.795, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "CGY", "name": "CGY", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 11.0, "sogFor": 29.181818181818183, "sogAllowed": 30.09090909090909, "xgFor": 2.908818181818182, "xgAllowed": 3.3018181818181818, "fiveAllowed": 28.90306519371402, "pkAllowed": 48.028461310406165, "ppMinutes": 3.596969696969697, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "EDM", "name": "EDM", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 12.0, "sogFor": 25.75, "sogAllowed": 27.25, "xgFor": 3.03425, "xgAllowed": 2.79975, "fiveAllowed": 25.4525447042641, "pkAllowed": 56.56728444802579, "ppMinutes": 4.788888888888889, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "NJD", "name": "NJD", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "games": 12.0, "sogFor": 33.583333333333336, "sogAllowed": 23.5, "xgFor": 3.6999999999999997, "xgAllowed": 2.40225, "fiveAllowed": 22.7, "pkAllowed": 45.82743988684583, "ppMinutes": 4.908333333333333, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "COL", "name": "COL", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 12.0, "sogFor": 29.25, "sogAllowed": 28.5, "xgFor": 3.28025, "xgAllowed": 2.8375, "fiveAllowed": 28.0407429598562, "pkAllowed": 49.061175045427014, "ppMinutes": 5.243055555555555, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "TOR", "name": "TOR", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 14.0, "sogFor": 28.642857142857142, "sogAllowed": 30.214285714285715, "xgFor": 3.1315714285714287, "xgAllowed": 3.496, "fiveAllowed": 28.49274283587644, "pkAllowed": 44.14469650521153, "ppMinutes": 4.488095238095238, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "SEA", "name": "SEA", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 12.0, "sogFor": 26.0, "sogAllowed": 31.916666666666668, "xgFor": 2.8935, "xgAllowed": 3.6680833333333336, "fiveAllowed": 30.18384401114206, "pkAllowed": 56.6410537870472, "ppMinutes": 4.683333333333334, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } ], "goalieStats": [ { "id": "8474596", "name": "Jake Allen", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "gsax60": -0.49754710273729097, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": null }, { "id": "8475683", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "gsax60": 0.2981137862291059, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": null }, { "id": "8475809", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8888888888888888, "gaa": 3.4811438043928717, "gsax": -2.9510000000000005, "gsax60": -0.7337753833402405, "shotsAgainst": 126.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8475831", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "gsax60": 0.5256304134488203, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": null }, { "id": "8476932", "name": "Anthony Stolarz", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.9060402684563759, "gaa": 2.7947210823999113, "gsax": 1.4830000000000005, "gsax60": 0.2960408117999336, "shotsAgainst": 149.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8476945", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "games": 1, "savePct": 0.9444444444444444, "gaa": 1.0, "gsax": 0.7070000000000001, "gsax60": 0.7070000000000001, "shotsAgainst": 18.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8477465", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "gsax60": -1.2, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": null }, { "id": "8478406", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "gsax60": -0.18957359299750426, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": null }, { "id": "8478435", "name": "Dan Vladar", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8878048780487805, "gaa": 3.2625398951889357, "gsax": -0.15399999999999991, "gsax60": -0.021844832341699816, "shotsAgainst": 205.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8478916", "name": "Joey Daccord", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.8823529411764706, "gaa": 3.945795137504982, "gsax": -2.0180000000000007, "gsax60": -0.36193702670386624, "shotsAgainst": 187.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8479292", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 3, "savePct": 0.8860759493670887, "gaa": 2.978488692774407, "gsax": -0.36100000000000065, "gsax60": -0.11947049089906255, "shotsAgainst": 79.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8479361", "name": "Joseph Woll", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "gsax60": 0.5589496163885157, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": null }, { "id": "8480313", "name": "Logan Thompson", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "gsax60": 0.5979484291403513, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, { "id": "8481692", "name": "Dustin Wolf", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8344827586206897, "gaa": 4.853932584269663, "gsax": -7.959, "gsax60": -1.6096853932584267, "shotsAgainst": 145.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482076", "name": "Nico Daws", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "games": 4, "savePct": 0.8735632183908046, "gaa": 2.7769985974754556, "gsax": -2.289999999999999, "gsax60": -0.5781206171107992, "shotsAgainst": 87.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482221", "name": "Devon Levi", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8865979381443299, "gaa": 3.1081982653742, "gsax": -1.411999999999999, "gsax60": -0.19948981594128945, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, { "id": "8482445", "name": "Devin Cooley", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "gsax60": 0.4049185652637928, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": null } ], "goalies": { "WSH": { "id": "8480313", "team": "WSH", "name": "Logan Thompson", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.900990099009901, "gaa": 2.8963353312683533, "gsax": 4.128999999999998, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.128999999999998, "shotsAgainst": 202.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9715049212480787, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment. Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "", "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "PHI": { "id": "8479361", "team": "PHI", "name": "Joseph Woll", "status": "Unconfirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9036697247706422, "gaa": 2.9897967254607294, "gsax": 3.926000000000002, "goalsAllowed": 21.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 24.926000000000002, "shotsAgainst": 218.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9735485894696292, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Listed candidate; October 28 starter not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "EDM": { "id": "8477465", "team": "EDM", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 5, "savePct": 0.8625954198473282, "gaa": 3.525954946131244, "gsax": -6.1259999999999994, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 11.874, "shotsAgainst": 131.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0595200040460027, "factor": 1.0595200040460027, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "CGY": { "id": "8482445", "team": "CGY", "name": "Devin Cooley", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 6, "savePct": 0.9135135135135135, "gaa": 2.672729803721405, "gsax": 2.4239999999999995, "goalsAllowed": 16.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 18.424, "shotsAgainst": 185.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9835299221076995, "factor": 0.9835299221076995, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "COL": { "id": "8478406", "team": "COL", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 8, "savePct": 0.8925233644859814, "gaa": 2.910675993953668, "gsax": -1.498000000000001, "goalsAllowed": 23.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.502, "shotsAgainst": 214.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0179315939247353, "factor": 1.0179315939247353, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "NJD": { "id": "8474596", "team": "NJD", "name": "Jake Allen", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.8863636363636364, "gaa": 2.8439388553146108, "gsax": -3.4989999999999988, "goalsAllowed": 20.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 16.501, "shotsAgainst": 176.0, "scenarioFactor": 1.0351150150608386, "factor": 1.0351150150608386, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "SEA": { "id": "8475831", "team": "SEA", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "status": "Likely", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 7, "savePct": 0.9072164948453608, "gaa": 2.764858983658318, "gsax": 3.4220000000000006, "goalsAllowed": 18.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 21.422, "shotsAgainst": 194.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9762048140587578, "factor": 1, "applied": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Likely starter; not confirmed. No Model Goal adjustment.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" }, "TOR": { "id": "8475683", "team": "TOR", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "status": "Confirmed", "checkedAt": "2026-10-28T20:23:40.198892+00:00", "sourceUrl": "https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/2026-10-28", "games": 9, "savePct": 0.8966789667896679, "gaa": 3.091550375709247, "gsax": 2.6999999999999993, "goalsAllowed": 28.0, "xGoalsAgainst": 30.7, "shotsAgainst": 271.0, "scenarioFactor": 0.9856825410669003, "factor": 0.9856825410669003, "applied": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "note": "Confirmed for October 28.", "dataPending": false, "dataPendingNote": "" } }, "positionDefenses": [ { "team": "ANA", "games": 12, "sogAllowedTotal": 333.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 27.75, "mostAllowedRank": 17, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.106789870752674, "pkSogAllowed60": 42.588121680347655, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 43.25, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "L": 49.0, "C": 119.0, "D": 75.0, "R": 90.0 }, 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345.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.75, "mostAllowedRank": 9, "fiveSogAllowed60": 26.97718472295735, "pkSogAllowed60": 54.50874831763122, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 45.75, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "D": 97.0, "C": 126.0, "L": 67.0, "R": 55.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 10.5, "L": 5.583333333333333, "R": 4.583333333333333, "D": 8.083333333333334 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 29.6, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "away", "venueGames": 5, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 32.2, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" }, { "team": "WSH", "games": 10, "sogAllowedTotal": 284.0, "sogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "mostAllowedRank": 12, "fiveSogAllowed60": 27.316447579352356, "pkSogAllowed60": 51.1641971575446, "unblockedAllowedPerGame": 44.8, "positionUnassignedSOG": 0, "positionTotals": { "R": 79.0, "C": 77.0, "D": 78.0, "L": 50.0 }, "positionAllowedPerGame": { "C": 7.7, "L": 5.0, "R": 7.9, "D": 7.8 }, "recentSogAllowedPerGame": 28.4, "recentGames": 5, "venue": "home", "venueGames": 7, "venueSogAllowedPerGame": 26.571428571428573, "positionSourceDifference": 0.0, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "strengthStatsThrough": "2026-10-27" } ], "teamMatchupProjections": { "PHI": { "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "teamGames": 14.0, "opponentGames": 10.0, "projectedSOG": 25.830856310120463, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 21.17752184273233, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 27.316447579352356, "teamMinutes": 47.96190476190476, "opponentMinutes": 46.785000000000004, "expectedMinutes": 47.373452380952386, "matchupSOG60": 24.246984711042344, "shots": 19.14438959317075 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 49.43387135629969, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 51.1641971575446, "teamMinutes": 4.941666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 5.511666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 5.226666666666667, "matchupSOG60": 50.29903425692214, "shots": 4.3816047619363285 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 8.009708737864077, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 7.507820646506778, "teamMinutes": 5.885714285714286, "opponentMinutes": 4.795, "expectedMinutes": 5.340357142857143, "matchupSOG60": 7.758764692185427, "shots": 0.6905762407276709 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.4285714285714286, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.8, "shots": 1.6142857142857143 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "WSH": { "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "teamGames": 10.0, "opponentGames": 14.0, "projectedSOG": 28.826226005457585, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 26.162231484450146, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 28.772835583796663, "teamMinutes": 46.785000000000004, "opponentMinutes": 47.96190476190476, "expectedMinutes": 47.373452380952386, "matchupSOG60": 27.467533534123405, "shots": 21.68719819835013 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 37.53910323253389, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 48.786407766990294, "teamMinutes": 4.795, "opponentMinutes": 5.885714285714286, "expectedMinutes": 5.340357142857143, "matchupSOG60": 43.16275549976209, "shots": 3.8417421606425157 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 14.151799213788932, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 13.008913514815706, "teamMinutes": 5.511666666666667, "opponentMinutes": 4.941666666666667, "expectedMinutes": 5.226666666666667, "matchupSOG60": 13.580356364302318, "shots": 1.1829999321792242 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.8, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.4285714285714286, "shots": 2.1142857142857143 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "CGY": { "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "teamGames": 11.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 28.238817836731748, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 29.01509257818578, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 25.4525447042641, "teamMinutes": 48.689393939393945, "opponentMinutes": 50.486111111111114, "expectedMinutes": 49.587752525252526, "matchupSOG60": 27.23381864122494, "shots": 22.507730984977854 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 53.07497893850042, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 56.56728444802579, "teamMinutes": 3.596969696969697, "opponentMinutes": 3.4472222222222224, "expectedMinutes": 3.52209595959596, "matchupSOG60": 54.821131693263105, "shots": 3.2180881072886667 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 11.740290542543729, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 7.3085846867749416, "teamMinutes": 5.11060606060606, "opponentMinutes": 4.788888888888889, "expectedMinutes": 4.949747474747475, "matchupSOG60": 9.524437614659336, "shots": 0.7857260171924985 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.4545454545454546, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.0, "shots": 1.7272727272727273 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "EDM": { "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 11.0, "projectedSOG": 27.979322627822526, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 21.49105914718019, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 28.90306519371402, "teamMinutes": 50.486111111111114, "opponentMinutes": 48.689393939393945, "expectedMinutes": 49.587752525252526, "matchupSOG60": 25.197062170447104, "shots": 20.82442805452555 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 56.380510440835266, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 48.028461310406165, "teamMinutes": 4.788888888888889, "opponentMinutes": 5.11060606060606, "expectedMinutes": 4.949747474747475, "matchupSOG60": 52.20448587562072, "shots": 4.3066503688890645 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 8.70265914585012, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 21.22999157540017, "teamMinutes": 3.4472222222222224, "opponentMinutes": 3.596969696969697, "expectedMinutes": 3.52209595959596, "matchupSOG60": 14.966325360625145, "shots": 0.8785472347109395 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.6666666666666665, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.2727272727272727, "shots": 1.9696969696969697 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "NJD": { "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 30.97697606153555, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 32.0, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 28.0407429598562, "teamMinutes": 50.0, "opponentMinutes": 48.67916666666667, "expectedMinutes": 49.33958333333334, "matchupSOG60": 30.0203714799281, "shots": 24.68654367219227 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 64.17657045840407, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 49.061175045427014, "teamMinutes": 4.908333333333333, "opponentMinutes": 4.586111111111111, "expectedMinutes": 4.747222222222222, "matchupSOG60": 56.618872751915546, "shots": 4.479706182084429 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 6.364922206506365, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 10.490066225165563, "teamMinutes": 3.9277777777777776, "opponentMinutes": 5.243055555555555, "expectedMinutes": 4.585416666666666, "matchupSOG60": 8.427494215835964, "shots": 0.644059540592186 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.25, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.0833333333333333, "shots": 1.1666666666666665 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "COL": { "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 26.37742527027573, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 28.246169648206795, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 22.7, "teamMinutes": 48.67916666666667, "opponentMinutes": 50.0, "expectedMinutes": 49.33958333333334, "matchupSOG60": 25.473084824103395, "shots": 20.947189857265304 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 50.54304635761589, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 45.82743988684583, "teamMinutes": 5.243055555555555, "opponentMinutes": 3.9277777777777776, "expectedMinutes": 4.585416666666666, "matchupSOG60": 48.18524312223086, "shots": 3.682490281667712 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 5.451241671714112, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 7.130730050933786, "teamMinutes": 4.586111111111111, "opponentMinutes": 4.908333333333333, "expectedMinutes": 4.747222222222222, "matchupSOG60": 6.290985861323949, "shots": 0.4977451313427143 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.5, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 1.0, "shots": 1.25 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "TOR": { "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "teamGames": 14.0, "opponentGames": 12.0, "projectedSOG": 30.247743159126056, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 26.527726088574617, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 30.18384401114206, "teamMinutes": 47.982142857142854, "opponentMinutes": 49.861111111111114, "expectedMinutes": 48.92162698412699, "matchupSOG60": 28.35578504985834, "shots": 23.12018565085424 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 50.610079575596814, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 56.6410537870472, "teamMinutes": 4.488095238095238, "opponentMinutes": 3.795833333333333, "expectedMinutes": 4.141964285714286, "matchupSOG60": 53.625566681322006, "shots": 3.7019196999204285 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 13.979153893316983, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 9.608540925266905, "teamMinutes": 5.825, "opponentMinutes": 4.683333333333334, "expectedMinutes": 5.254166666666666, "matchupSOG60": 11.793847409291944, "shots": 1.032780665494246 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 2.2857142857142856, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.5, "shots": 2.392857142857143 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." }, "SEA": { "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "teamGames": 12.0, "opponentGames": 14.0, "projectedSOG": 28.121014201918108, "components": [ { "situation": "5v5", "teamSituation": "5on5", "opponentSituation": "5on5", "offenseSOG60": 24.86908077994429, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 28.49274283587644, "teamMinutes": 49.861111111111114, "opponentMinutes": 47.982142857142854, "expectedMinutes": 48.92162698412699, "matchupSOG60": 26.680911807910366, "shots": 21.754560251049668 }, { "situation": "Power play", "teamSituation": "5on4", "opponentSituation": "4on5", "offenseSOG60": 43.77224199288256, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 44.14469650521153, "teamMinutes": 4.683333333333334, "opponentMinutes": 5.825, "expectedMinutes": 5.254166666666666, "matchupSOG60": 43.95846924904704, "shots": 3.8494187307672445 }, { "situation": "Shorthanded", "teamSituation": "4on5", "opponentSituation": "5on4", "offenseSOG60": 1.3172338090010978, "opponentAllowedSOG60": 5.729442970822281, "teamMinutes": 3.795833333333333, "opponentMinutes": 4.488095238095238, "expectedMinutes": 4.141964285714286, "matchupSOG60": 3.5233383899116895, "shots": 0.24322569629167154 }, { "situation": "Other situations", "teamSOGPerGame": 1.8333333333333333, "opponentAllowedPerGame": 2.7142857142857144, "shots": 2.2738095238095237 } ], "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "model": "team-matchup-current-equal-v1", "source": "Saved MoneyPuck team season totals", "note": "Experimental team-only estimate. Equal offense/defense and opportunity averages; no player projection changes. Other includes remaining recorded situations. Not calibrated; no score-state or lineup adjustment." } }, "goalieSaveModel": { "version": "current-league-500shot-v1", "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "leagueSavePct": 0.8924191750278707, "leagueShots": 10764.0, "leagueGoals": 1158.0, "leagueGoalies": 71, "priorShots": 500, "source": "Saved MoneyPuck current-season all-situation goalie totals", "formula": "(current saves + 500 × current league save rate) / (current shots faced + 500)", "note": "Experimental 500-shot prior, not fitted. Current season only; no prior-season goalie data. Full-game-start scenario; no pull/injury, empty-net, opponent shot-quality or shared-goalie adjustment. Does not alter player SOG or goal estimates." }, "goalieSaveProjections": { "8474596:NJD": { "id": "8474596", "name": "Jake Allen", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "projectedShotsFaced": 26.37742527027573, "rawSavePct": 0.8863636363636364, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8908425850797859, "currentShots": 176.0, "currentGoals": 20.0, "currentWeight": 0.2603550295857988, "projectedSaves": 23.498133715521302, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.8792915547544293, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false, "availabilityReview": null }, "8475683:TOR": { "id": "8475683", "name": "Sergei Bobrovsky", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "projectedShotsFaced": 28.121014201918108, "rawSavePct": 0.8966789667896679, "adjustedSavePct": 0.893916455919501, "currentShots": 271.0, "currentGoals": 28.0, "currentWeight": 0.35149156939040205, "projectedSaves": 25.137837352240588, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.983176849677519, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false, "availabilityReview": null }, "8475809:COL": { "id": "8475809", "name": "Scott Wedgewood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "projectedShotsFaced": 30.97697606153555, "rawSavePct": 0.8888888888888888, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8917086062522928, "currentShots": 126.0, "currentGoals": 14.0, "currentWeight": 0.2012779552715655, "projectedSaves": 27.6224361497425, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.3545399117930477, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8475831:SEA": { "id": "8475831", "name": "Philipp Grubauer", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "projectedShotsFaced": 30.247743159126056, "rawSavePct": 0.9072164948453608, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8965556016050941, "currentShots": 194.0, "currentGoals": 18.0, "currentWeight": 0.27953890489913547, "projectedSaves": 27.11878356522663, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.1289595938994266, "starterStatus": "Likely", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false, "availabilityReview": null }, "8476932:TOR": { "id": "8476932", "name": "Anthony Stolarz", "team": "TOR", "opponent": "SEA", "projectedShotsFaced": 28.121014201918108, "rawSavePct": 0.9060402684563759, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8955463598057555, "currentShots": 149.0, "currentGoals": 14.0, "currentWeight": 0.2295839753466872, "projectedSaves": 25.183671902573714, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.9373422993443943, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8476945:NJD": { "id": "8476945", "name": "Connor Hellebuyck", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "projectedShotsFaced": 26.37742527027573, "rawSavePct": 0.9444444444444444, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8942270029226551, "currentShots": 18.0, "currentGoals": 1.0, "currentWeight": 0.03474903474903475, "projectedSaves": 23.58740594425497, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.790019326020758, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8477465:EDM": { "id": "8477465", "name": "Tristan Jarry", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "projectedShotsFaced": 28.238817836731748, "rawSavePct": 0.8625954198473282, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8862275554895963, "currentShots": 131.0, "currentGoals": 18.0, "currentWeight": 0.2076069730586371, "projectedSaves": 25.02601850136279, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.212799335368961, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false, "availabilityReview": null }, "8478406:COL": { "id": "8478406", "name": "Mackenzie Blackwood", "team": "COL", "opponent": "NJD", "projectedShotsFaced": 30.97697606153555, "rawSavePct": 0.8925233644859814, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8924504026805816, "currentShots": 214.0, "currentGoals": 23.0, "currentWeight": 0.29971988795518206, "projectedSaves": 27.64541475994414, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.3315613015914107, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false, "availabilityReview": null }, "8478435:PHI": { "id": "8478435", "name": "Dan Vladar", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "projectedShotsFaced": 28.826226005457585, "rawSavePct": 0.8878048780487805, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8910774290977805, "currentShots": 205.0, "currentGoals": 23.0, "currentWeight": 0.2907801418439716, "projectedSaves": 25.68639935953473, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.1398266459228563, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8478916:SEA": { "id": "8478916", "name": "Joey Daccord", "team": "SEA", "opponent": "TOR", "projectedShotsFaced": 30.247743159126056, "rawSavePct": 0.8823529411764706, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8896791666869509, "currentShots": 187.0, "currentGoals": 22.0, "currentWeight": 0.27219796215429404, "projectedSaves": 26.91078692797219, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.3369562311538665, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8479292:WSH": { "id": "8479292", "name": "Charlie Lindgren", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "projectedShotsFaced": 25.830856310120463, "rawSavePct": 0.8860759493670887, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8915536917339124, "currentShots": 79.0, "currentGoals": 9.0, "currentWeight": 0.13644214162348878, "projectedSaves": 23.029595303936127, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.8012610061843377, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8479361:PHI": { "id": "8479361", "name": "Joseph Woll", "team": "PHI", "opponent": "WSH", "projectedShotsFaced": 28.826226005457585, "rawSavePct": 0.9036697247706422, "adjustedSavePct": 0.895835080102974, "currentShots": 218.0, "currentGoals": 21.0, "currentWeight": 0.30362116991643456, "projectedSaves": 25.823544482665525, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.002681522792058, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false, "availabilityReview": null }, "8480313:WSH": { "id": "8480313", "name": "Logan Thompson", "team": "WSH", "opponent": "PHI", "projectedShotsFaced": 25.830856310120463, "rawSavePct": 0.900990099009901, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8948854522990531, "currentShots": 202.0, "currentGoals": 20.0, "currentWeight": 0.28774928774928776, "projectedSaves": 23.115657532354003, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.7151987777664615, "starterStatus": "Unconfirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false, "availabilityReview": "Starter unresolved: goalie page names Logan Thompson, but the latest team chart lists him unavailable. No goalie adjustment applied." }, "8481692:CGY": { "id": "8481692", "name": "Dustin Wolf", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "projectedShotsFaced": 27.979322627822526, "rawSavePct": 0.8344827586206897, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8793947093239307, "currentShots": 145.0, "currentGoals": 24.0, "currentWeight": 0.2248062015503876, "projectedSaves": 24.60486828937447, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.3744543384480585, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8482076:NJD": { "id": "8482076", "name": "Nico Daws", "team": "NJD", "opponent": "COL", "projectedShotsFaced": 26.37742527027573, "rawSavePct": 0.8735632183908046, "adjustedSavePct": 0.889624510245205, "currentShots": 87.0, "currentGoals": 11.0, "currentWeight": 0.14821124361158433, "projectedSaves": 23.466004037598537, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.911421232677191, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8482221:EDM": { "id": "8482221", "name": "Devon Levi", "team": "EDM", "opponent": "CGY", "projectedShotsFaced": 28.238817836731748, "rawSavePct": 0.8865979381443299, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8907919128442872, "currentShots": 194.0, "currentGoals": 22.0, "currentWeight": 0.27953890489913547, "projectedSaves": 25.15491055724365, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 3.0839072794880993, "starterStatus": "Not listed candidate", "listedCandidate": false, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false }, "8482445:CGY": { "id": "8482445", "name": "Devin Cooley", "team": "CGY", "opponent": "EDM", "projectedShotsFaced": 27.979322627822526, "rawSavePct": 0.9135135135135135, "adjustedSavePct": 0.8981161861517303, "currentShots": 185.0, "currentGoals": 16.0, "currentWeight": 0.27007299270072993, "projectedSaves": 25.128682529608774, "projectedGoalsAllowed": 2.850640098213751, "starterStatus": "Confirmed", "listedCandidate": true, "statsThrough": "2026-10-27", "basis": "Full-game start; opponent team SOG used as shots-faced proxy", "fallback": false, "availabilityReview": null } } }