A full slate.
The numbers behind the play.
Your NFL working trials, together. Explore passing, rushing, receiving and scoring chances. Pick a market, compare the top 10, and open any player for the breakdown.
Statistics through October 15 · Rushing coverage: all 54 RBs, including secondary backs · 24-team role review · October 18, 12:42 PM ET · Afternoon update: DJ Moore out · Joshua Palmer active · SNF inactives pending · Projections are conditional, not confirmed workloads.
Passing yards
Tap a player or projection for the breakdown. Scenario pairs are alternative workloads, not confidence intervals.
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What is locked—and what still needs review?
Yardage and receptions
All yards and receptions use sample-weighted blending: n/(n+k) baseline and k/(n+k) opponent trial. n counts primary-passer games, non-kneel rushing games or target games as appropriate, from 2025–2026. k = 10 QB (working assumption), 10 WR, 9 TE, 13 RB. This is an unvalidated user-selected trial. The player breakdown preserves both components. Opponent receiving factors cover the whole receiving environment, not position-specific coverage.
Adjusted touchdown trial
Stats-based team rushing and receiving TD budgets are allocated by player xTD shares. Missing-roster and held/out allocations remain reserved. Opponent factors apply once at team level. Display = (1 − exp(−allocated xTD)) × (23.8 ÷ 26.3); returns stay separate. Passing TDs do not count for the passer. This is a provisional historical calibration, not an independently validated probability. The prior baseline remains in the breakdown; no predictive improvement has been established.
Roles and samples
Conditional usage estimates are available for covered players unless ruled out. Injury-transfer rushing cases retain two workload assumptions. Returning players, small samples and QB changes need review before treating a projection as a normal-workload forecast.
Snapshot, not a live feed
2025 and 2026 play-by-play supplied for this project; current statistical coverage ends October 15. No sportsbook lines enter the models. Later-game final active lists remain pending. New England uses an explicit conditional return-to-role allocation with its saved target pool conserved.