MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL · OCTOBER 26

22 covered players · Cowboys at Eagles · 4 position tabs

Player figures are model projections for upcoming games, not actual game results. Historical charts show recorded results.

Role + snap-adjusted projections · Red-zone TD usage · Stats through Oct 22

Week 7 · role-adjusted model

Updated October 25: RB1/RB2, WR1/WR2/WR3 and TE1/TE2 opponent allowances adjust covered projections. Recent offensive snap share and opportunities per snap now replace the supported player workload allocation within the same live team subtotal. TD shares include player roles, snap exposure and red-zone usage within fixed team scoring budgets. Started games retain their pregame forecasts. Experimental model; roles and final availability remain conditional.

Monday, October 26: Cowboys at Eagles · 8:15 PM ET. This board is limited to tonight’s matchup. Statistics through October 22, including Thursday’s Patriots–Bears game; Week 7 roster inputs retained; MNF reports reviewed October26 6:07 PM ET; underlying injury report dated October24. Later official Saturday activations are included: Dylan Sampson (no injury designation) and Josh Jacobs (expected to play; workload uncertain). Paris final inactives are verified; other Sunday/Monday lists remain pending. Questionable players are conditional; out and non-active roster entries are held. No automatic carry or target transfer. Official schedule · NFL injury report · Browns activation · Packers activation · Play-by-play source · Thursday board → · October 19 board → · October 18 board →

Monday Night Football

Quarterbacks · Projections

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How this ranking works

Availability & opponent defense context

What is locked—and what still needs review?

Yards and receptions

All player projections use regular-season play-by-play from 2025 and 2026 through October 22. RB1/RB2, WR1/WR2/WR3 and TE1/TE2 use role-specific opponent volume and efficiency in place of the pooled factors. Small defensive samples are regressed toward league-role rates. Recent offensive snap exposure and season/recent opportunities per snap replace the existing live opportunity allocation; the supported team total and held shares are fixed. Missing or sparse recent observations retain the prior workload. The final blend retains n/(n+k) baseline plus k/(n+k) opponent estimate, with QB 10, RB 13, WR 10 and TE 9. Player breakdowns show sample counts and both components. No sportsbook lines enter the model.

Touchdown model

The adopted team-budget model keeps separate rushing and receiving TD rates with five prior games, applies the saved opponent factor once, uses role, snap exposure and current-team red-zone usage within the existing team budgets, and reserves uncovered or held shares. Return exposure stays separate. Display conversion remains (1 − exp(−xTD)) × (23.8 ÷ 26.3). The TD figures are provisional model estimates, not calibrated probabilities.

Roles and availability

Player workloads use measured opportunities from 2025 and 2026, including the saved season/recent split. No automatic carry or target transfer is made for injuries. NFL injury-report outs and roster holds are unprojected; questionable estimates are conditional on being active. Paris final inactives are verified; other Sunday/Monday lists remain pending. Rico Dowdle is active, with workload conditional.

Current inputs

The Monday reports were rechecked October26 6:07 PM ET; final inactives remain pending; the schedule is the retained official Week 7 slate. Week 7 roster data is linked by NFL player ID. 2026 play-by-play is current through October 22. The broad defense context remains informational. The adopted role-specific allowance layer replaces the pooled projection adjustment and does not add a second matchup boost.