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Model SOG · 100% current-season shooting rates · Combined matchup cap ±15%.
October 17 Goal Model results
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Small-sample labels explained
Yellow flags are reserved for very small samples: 3 games/appearances/meetings or fewer; 10 unblocked 5v5 attempts or fewer; 5 PP attempts or fewer in either season; 2 attempts or fewer in an individual zone; 10 SOG or fewer in shooting histories. These display flags show sample size; they do not change projections or rankings.
Red elevated-stat flags explained
Red underlined stats and red labels identify elevated values to review: team PP minutes more than 30% above league average within the first 10 games. Individual player shooting rates are not flagged. Tap a red value or label for its baseline and sample. These review thresholds are not a guarantee of regression and do not change projections or ranks. Yellow labels continue to identify very small samples.
| # | Tap player for full breakdown · numbers for detailsPlayer | Matchup | Model SOG Current season · cap ±15% | Hotspot fit5v5 / PP · 60/40 | Model Goal Score 1+ goal | Current SOG / game | Individual xGixG / game · info | H2H SOG / game · info | Opp. vs position SOG / game · raw | TOI changeTOI / game vs last season | Watchlist |
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October 17 · 14 games. 9:50 PM ET review: Vejmelka confirmed for Utah in Catherine Bogart’s report, recorded by Daily Faceoff at 9:32 PM ET. Edmonton Model Goal estimates recalculated using the existing confirmed-only goalie adjustment. SOG, PP opportunity and observed statistics unchanged. All started-game forecasts remain frozen. 9:20 PM ET review: Coach-attributed Pittsburgh report rules Chinakhov out and confirms Murashov. Koivunen is projected on Line 2; final dressing and PP deployment remain unconfirmed. Vegas Model Goal estimates recalculated with the existing confirmed-only goalie policy. SOG estimates and observed deployment unchanged. All games already underway retain their saved pregame forecasts. Results posted: October 16 finals are available in the archive. All 14 October 17 games are final. Player shots and goals are posted alongside frozen pregame forecasts; open the results summary for the slate comparison and source notes. Statistics refreshed: Complete game logs through October 16 are now reconciled (120 games), including both October 16 games and all 11 October 15 games. Model SOG, Model Goal and saves for Boston–Los Angeles, Edmonton–Utah and Pittsburgh–Vegas are recalculated with updated shooting rates, deployment, team/goalie inputs and charts. Earlier games retain their frozen pregame forecasts and original cutoff. Team and goalie observed-stat views use October 16. Today’s results are excluded. Reported roles remain provisional. 7:50 PM ET review: Saros confirmed by warmup report from Nashville team reporter Brooks Bratten; St. Louis Model Goal estimates recalculated. SOG estimates and measured inputs unchanged. All earlier games retain frozen pregame forecasts. 5:50 PM ET review: Greaves and Forsberg confirmed from coach-attributed reports; Rangers and Bruins Model Goal estimates recalculated. SOG and measured inputs unchanged. Exact report times unavailable; confirmation first verified in this review. Other remaining starters and skater units retain their saved provisional labels. 4:45 PM ET review: Chinakhov availability is uncertain: injury reporting conflicts with the NHL projected lineup. His estimates remain conditional; Koivunen is a possible alternate, not an assumed replacement. No new verified pregame input warrants changing forecast numbers. 3:55 PM ET review: Lankinen confirmed for Vancouver; Tampa Bay goal estimates recalculated. Newer Tampa projected 11F/7D chart applied before 4 PM. Updated later-game LAK/PIT/EDM projected roles. NJD/WSH and CAR/WPG forecasts remain frozen; later CAR/WPG confirmations are not retrospectively applied. 1:35 PM ET review: Nedeljkovic and Binnington confirmed; Forsberg likely, not confirmed. Later-game projected units and affected estimates updated. Devils–Capitals pregame forecasts are frozen. 12:50 PM ET review: Oettinger and Garand newly confirmed; Chicago and Columbus goal estimates recalculated. SOG estimates unchanged. Noon update: Tavares, Sourdif, Montour, Sanderson, Roy, Gudas and Byram are ruled out. Brodzinski replaces Sourdif; Fleury replaces Montour. McKenna PP1 and Groulx PP2 use disclosed provisional opportunity transfers. Kulich and Kapanen’s projected units are reconciled; Carrick and Beck are excluded. Wyatt Johnston and Buchnevich are reported returning. Buchnevich is projected on Line 3; Columbus’s displaced forward remains pending. Tippett and Zacha remain conditional. 22 confirmed starters applied to pregame estimates; all other starts are labeled likely or unconfirmed. Reported skater units remain provisional, not final warmup confirmation. New skaters without current inputs show unavailable forecasts. Earlier news reviews below refer to the statistics snapshot used at that time. October 11–16 archives are unchanged. NHL lineups ↗ · Goalie reports ↗