Thursday night.
New England at Chicago.
Your NFL working trials, together. Explore passing, rushing, receiving and scoring chances. Pick a market, compare the top 10, and open any player for the breakdown.
NE @ CHI · 8:15 PM ET · Statistics through October 19, including both teams’ October 18 games. Injury reports reviewed October 22: Monangai out; Doubs on injured reserve. Final inactives pending. No automatic carry or target transfer. October 19 board → · October 18 board →
Passing yards
Tap a player or projection for the breakdown. Scenario pairs are alternative workloads, not confidence intervals.
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What is locked—and what still needs review?
Yardage and receptions
All yards and receptions use sample-weighted blending: n/(n+k) baseline and k/(n+k) opponent trial. n counts primary-passer games, non-kneel rushing games or target games as appropriate, from 2025–2026. k = 10 QB (working assumption), 10 WR, 9 TE, 13 RB. This is an unvalidated user-selected trial. The player breakdown preserves both components. Opponent receiving factors cover the whole receiving environment, not position-specific coverage.
Adjusted touchdown trial
Stats-based team rushing and receiving TD budgets are allocated by player xTD shares. Missing-roster and held/out allocations remain reserved. Opponent factors apply once at team level. Display = (1 − exp(−allocated xTD)) × (23.8 ÷ 26.3); returns stay separate. Passing TDs do not count for the passer. This is a provisional historical calibration, not an independently validated probability. The prior baseline remains in the breakdown; no predictive improvement has been established.
Roles and samples
Covered players with measured workloads have conditional usage estimates. Ruled-out players and those without a current workload remain unprojected. Chicago’s backfield retains measured historical shares with Monangai out; no automatic carry transfer is assumed. Returning players, small samples and QB changes need review before treating a projection as a normal-workload forecast.
Snapshot, not a live feed
2025 and 2026 nflverse play-by-play, refreshed October 22; current statistical coverage ends October 19. No sportsbook lines enter the models. Thursday final active lists remain pending. Passing estimates include the saved opponent-efficiency sensitivity; matching team pressure rates are unavailable, so no pressure-driven attempt adjustment is applied.