October 19 results
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Choose your weights. Total must equal 100%. Projected attempts include blocks and misses at 5v5 + PP. Smoothed on-net % is weighted by projected attempts across those strengths. Attempts-model SOG includes opponent adjustments and other-situation SOG.
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Small-sample labels explained
Yellow flags are reserved for very small samples: 3 games/appearances/meetings or fewer; 10 unblocked 5v5 attempts or fewer; 5 PP attempts or fewer in either season; 2 attempts or fewer in an individual zone; 10 SOG or fewer in shooting histories. These display flags show sample size; they do not change projections or rankings.
Red elevated-stat flags explained
Red underlined stats and red labels identify elevated values to review: team PP minutes more than 30% above league average within the first 10 games. Individual player shooting rates are not flagged. Tap a red value or label for its baseline and sample. These review thresholds are not a guarantee of regression and do not change projections or ranks. Yellow labels continue to identify very small samples.
| # | Tap player for full breakdown · numbers for detailsPlayer | Matchup | Model SOG 60/40 model + player mean | Hotspot fit5v5 / PP · 60/40 | Model Goal Score 1+ goal | Current SOG / game | Individual xGixG / game · info | H2H SOG / game · info | Opp. vs position SOG / game · raw | TOI changeTOI / game vs last season | Watchlist |
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October 19 · evening lineup review · four games. All eight starting goalies are confirmed. All eight teams rechecked. Pittsburgh’s newer projected units put Novak on line 2, Koivunen on line 3 and Robertson on line 4; Lapierre is not listed. Final warmup/dressing lists and unit deployment remain unconfirmed. 145 listed skaters, including Foerster as an unresolved alternate; 142 with SOG estimates. Nylander, Couturier, Foerster, Girard and Chinakhov are game-time decisions. Colorado plans 11 forwards/seven defensemen; O’Connor remains unavailable. Jensen, Knuble and Lettieri are listed without invented current-season projections. Saved statistics remain through October 17. Confirmed-only goalie adjustments apply to Model Goal; SOG retains the existing 50/50 blend followed once by 60/40 player-average shrinkage. Measured minutes remain unchanged. Confirmed starters ↗
Model SOG · 60% existing model + 40% player’s prior-season SOG average.