October 20 results
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SOG Line Probabilities
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| # | Player | Model SOG | Chance of 3+ SOG | Line edge |
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Choose weights totaling 100%. Each edit stops at the remaining percentage. Recent attempts uses the last four games played. Attempt trend weights the change versus the season average; higher growth ranks first. Trend arrows also appear in custom results. More options are under Advanced stats.
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Small-sample labels explained
Yellow flags are reserved for very small samples: 3 games/appearances/meetings or fewer; 10 unblocked 5v5 attempts or fewer; 5 PP attempts or fewer in either season; 2 attempts or fewer in an individual zone; 10 SOG or fewer in shooting histories. These display flags show sample size; they do not change projections or rankings.
Red elevated-stat flags explained
Red underlined stats and red labels identify elevated values to review: team PP minutes more than 30% above league average within the first 10 games. Individual player shooting rates are not flagged. Tap a red value or label for its baseline and sample. These review thresholds are not a guarantee of regression and do not change projections or ranks. Yellow labels continue to identify very small samples.
| # | Tap player for full breakdown · numbers for detailsPlayer | Matchup | Model SOG 60/40 model + player mean | Hotspot fit5v5 / PP · 60/40 | Model Goal Score 1+ goal | Current SOG / game | Individual xGixG / game · info | H2H SOG / game · info | Opp. vs position SOG / game · raw | TOI changeTOI / game vs last season | Watchlist |
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October 20 · afternoon lineup review · 11 games. 395 skaters on projected charts; 390 SOG estimates. All 22 team charts reviewed; 13 of 22 goalies confirmed. Swayman, Skinner and Grubauer are newly confirmed. Kuemper, Nedeljkovic, Hofer and Merilainen remain likely; five other starters unconfirmed. Game-specific projected lines, defense pairs and reported PP units refreshed. Zacha is projected to return; Zuccarello is listed on PP1. Montour remains a game-time decision. Connor Brown’s reported season debut is included without an invented forecast. Numerical PP exposure retains measured current-season deployment. Final dressing and warmup units remain pending. Starter reports ↗ · October 19 saved board
Model SOG · 60% existing model + 40% player’s prior-season SOG average.